Projects MYANMAR RISK MODELLING Development of an Earthquake Risk Model for Myanmar. GEM contribution to ADB TA 9307-MYA: Strengthening Climate and Disaster Resilience of Myanmar Communities Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The Government of Myanmar has identified in its disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) related policy frameworks the increasing suffering of the population from disasters, and the need for support in strengthening resilience to extreme weather events. Accordingly, since 2015, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has supported the Government of Myanmar develop a National Framework for Community Disaster Resilience, which identifies potential opportunities for strengthening resilience of communities through investments in key sectors and themes of development, such as, agriculture, rural development, and financial inclusion, among others. The proposed technical assistance (TA) project responds to the request from the Government of Myanmar to support its implementation of the National Framework for Community Disaster Resilience. As part of this project, the ADB contracted the GEM Foundation to provide updated seismic hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and seismic risk information for Myanmar, with risk information presented at the third administrative level. Objective The main objective of this project was to develop, in collaboration with experts from the Myanmar Earthquake Committee, updated exposure, vulnerability, and seismic risk information for Myanmar, with risk information presented at the third administrative level. Collaborators GEM Foundation, Myanmar Earthquake Committee (MEC) Funding partner: Asian Development Bank (ADB) Location Myanmar Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects BANGLADESH Earthquake Vulnerability and Systemic Risk Assessment in Bangladesh Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Background This project follows a specific support request made by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office (UNRCO) for a sub-national earthquake hazard and risk assessment in Bangladesh. The GEM Foundation has the role of technical expert lead of the project which will include the following activities: Needs and Gaps Assessment Technical Panel Formation and Initial Consultations Seismic Hazard Mapping Exposure Mapping Seismic Vulnerability Assessment Seismic Risk Mapping and Interpretation Stakeholder Consultation and Validation Preliminary Model Dissemination and Training Workshop Funding and technical partner: UNDRR Duration: 2023 - 2024 Objectives The main objective of this project is to develop a detailed, open, sub-national earthquake risk model and evaluate seismic risk for Bangladesh at the zila and upazila levels. The complete risk model will comprise a probabilistic seismic hazard model, a building exposure model, and a seismic fragility and vulnerability model for the building stock of Bangladesh. Additionally, it includes critical scenarios for key cities, identified based on the results of the probabilistic risk assessment and in consultation with local stakeholders and experts, in a panel led by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR), and including representatives from the Ministry of Housing and Public Works, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Geological Survey of Bangladesh, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, and University of Dhaka.` Collaborators In collaboration with the GEM Foundation, the Technical Panel steering this seismic risk assessment initiative is a collaborative assembly of key stakeholders and experts. Led by the Additional Secretary of Bangladesh's Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR), it comprises representatives from vital entities, including the Department Of Disaster Management (DDM), the Fire Service and Civil Defence of Bangladesh, the Ministry of Housing & Public Works (MoHPW), and the Statistics and Informatics Division (SID) of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). In addition, the panel includes the participation of seasoned national experts specializing in seismic hazard and risk assessment from institutions such as the University of Dhaka (DU), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), and Jahangirnagar University (JU). Further enriching the panel's knowledge base are contributions from the Geological Survey of Bangladesh, the Centre for Urban Studies (CUS), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Bangladesh.) Location Bangladesh Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment Results This section summarises the various assessments conducted to understand the potential impact of earthquakes in Bangladesh. These assessments cover a range of factors, including the likelihood and severity of ground shaking, liquefaction potential, exposure of people and buildings, vulnerability of infrastructure, and the overall seismic risk posed to the country. The following list details the outputs generated from each assessment. Bangladesh Profiles | Past Earthquakes **ALL RESULTS ARE PRELIMINARY AND UNDER REVIEW** a. Population and Building Exposure Exposure models play a critical role in seismic risk assessment by quantifying the potential exposure of buildings and infrastructure to earthquake hazards. These models are structured databases that catalogue the characteristics of buildings within a specific geographic area, including their location, construction material, age, occupancy type, and structural design. The depth and accuracy of this data directly influence the effectiveness of the seismic risk evaluations, as they allow for a detailed understanding of how different structures are likely to perform during an earthquake. Download Files b. Infrastructure Exposure In addition to residential, industrial, and commercial structures that were previously covered by GEM’s exposure models at the zila level (which have been updated to the upazila level during this project), we have also developed exposure models for the healthcare and educational facilities at the country, including all hospitals and clinics, and all schools, colleges, and universities. Map | Profile c. Earthquake Scenarios The project also constructed the rupture geometries for these events, selected a range of ground motion models, and assessed the potential impact—both in terms of damage and losses—that each event could inflict on the country if it were to occur today. The full scenario set consists of twelve events: seven historical events from 1664-1918, chosen out of many in this period, supplemented by five hypothetical events. Download Files d. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment The seismic hazard modelling and mapping section describes the approach taken to assess the seismic hazard in Bangladesh with the goal of creating a comprehensive seismic hazard model for Bangladesh that can be used for risk assessment and mitigation. The project started with a probabilistic seismic hazard model for the Indian subcontinent, which was updated and implemented for the OpenQuake engine. The model includes seismogenic source models, ground motion models, and considers various tectonic regions. This section also mentions the review of the seismic source model for northeast India and the improvements made to the model. Download Files e. Liquefaction Hazard Assessment The section "Liquefaction susceptibility and hazard assessment" discusses the inclusion of regional liquefaction occurrence models in the project, which predict ground failure using existing mapped information and above-ground inferences of below-ground conditions. These models were used for the national scale liquefaction hazard assessment in the second phase of the project identifying the factors that contribute to liquefaction, the methods used for assessment, and the potential damage and losses that can result from liquefaction. Download Files f. Seismic Risk Assessment The project estimated seismic risk metrics utilising the OpenQuake-engine's stochastic event-based risk assessment calculator. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis model was employed to generate earthquake rupture forecasts, forming a stochastic event set over a 100,000-year span. Economic and human losses were computed for each event, producing event loss tables and year loss tables. Risk metrics included exceedance probability curves and average annualized losses. Fatality and injury estimates relied on vulnerability models informed by global earthquake data, with a focus on South Asian building characteristics. Results were tabulated nationally and regionally by the project. The assessment also considers the exposure and risk of healthcare facilities, educational facilities, and the national road network to seismic hazards. Download Files Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Improving global capacity for seismic hazard and risk This part of the program was designed to improve the understanding and awareness of earthquake hazard and risk, and to help bridge the gap between the information produced in detailed hazard and risk assessment studies and its communication to a wide variety of stakeholders (which range from local experts with the remit to assess seismic risk to decision-makers responsible for the implementation of risk reduction measures). a. Website for OpenQuake online training The OpenQuake online training was designed for different types of audiences with diverse backgrounds and expertise. Through this platform, participants interact with GEM scientific and technical teams to learn the main concepts of earthquake risk assessment, along with the basic features of the engine. [English ] b. Onsite Training Workshop One-day workshop designed to improve the understanding and awareness of earthquake hazard and risk and to help bridge the gap between the information produced in the project and its communication to a wide variety of stakeholders. The session allowed participants to explore and prepare the required input files for earthquake scenarios in the OpenQuake engine. OQ Engine Video Tutorials | English | Example Material Anchor 4 Communicating and raising earthquake risk awareness The activities in this component focused on raising the awareness of the public on earthquake hazard and risk by training a diverse group of disaster risk reduction (DRR) professionals together with personnel in charge of communicating risk to the public, and by conducting community-based workshops in selected areas of the pilot cities by those who were trained by the project. Speech by Domenico Scalpelli (WFP Representative) on the presentation of the Earthquake Risk Assessment Results The speech was delivered on March 6, 2024 at Six Season Hotel, Hall Room, Bunka, Bangladesh (10:00 am to 12:30 pm). "While Bangladesh has been fortunate to avoid a significant earthquake in the past century, historical data suggests earthquakes are a threat. This analysis, considering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, provides a foundation for evidence-based decision-making to guide preventive measures, enhance preparedness, and fortify our ability to respond." Read more | UNDRR Bangladesh article a. GEM presentation to the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR), Bangladesh This is an introductory presentation on Bangladesh's earthquake risk assessment project that outlines past efforts, emphasises the need for a nationwide evaluation, and introduces the GEM Foundation's methodology. It highlights completed division-level risk maps and ongoing project activities like data collection, vulnerability assessment, and stakeholder engagement. Additionally, five other presentations below will address different aspects of the project in Bangladesh. View Presentation b. Technical Panel Session #1 This presentation discusses the methodology used to collect and process data related to earthquake risk components such as hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. It also mentions the project activities and the formation of a technical panel for consultation and validation. View Presentation c. Technical Panel Session (PSHA) #2 This presentation is about the tailored version of the PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) model for the Indian sub-continent, which is based on the original model developed by Nath and Thingbaijam in 2012. The presentation discusses the main areas identified for improvement in the model, the changes that were introduced, and the impact of these changes on the hazard results. View Presentation d. Technical Panel Session (Scenario Ruptures) #2 This presentation is about the hazard analysis of earthquakes in Bangladesh, including an overview of the fault systems, historical ruptures, and potential ruptures. It also mentions the ground motion models used for the analysis. View Presentation e. Technical Panel Session #3 This presentation focuses on exposure and physical and social vulnerability, as components of seismic risk. It discusses the details of exposure models, seismic vulnerability analysis, and social vulnerability. The presentation also mentions the use of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the INFORM Index in assessing and understanding the seismic risk in Bangladesh. View Presentation f. Technical Panel Session (Scenarios and Risk) #4 This presentation details data collection and processing methods for seismic hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. It presents preliminary results on potential earthquake impacts like building collapse and economic loss using an 1885 event as an example. The presentation also mentions probabilistic risk assessment and division-level risk maps, alongside details about 12 "scenario ruptures" based on historical and potential earthquake events. View Presentation g. Technical Panel Session (Liquefaction) #4 This presentation focuses on factors such as soil liquefaction, susceptibility to ground failure, population density, urbanisation, and the country's river delta geography. It discusses various methodologies and models used to assess liquefaction hazard and suggests the use of geospatial methodologies for identifying areas with a higher likelihood of occurrence. View Presentation h. Final UNDRR-GEM Bangladesh - MoDMR Presentation This presentation summarises the findings of a sub-national earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Bangladesh, conducted by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation in collaboration with MoDMR, UNDRR and UNRCO. It details the development of a comprehensive earthquake risk model for Bangladesh at the district and sub-district levels. The presentation covers the methodologies employed, including assessments of seismic hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Stakeholder engagement and the final earthquake risk model for Bangladesh are also presented. View Presentation Videos - Ruptures, PSHA and Liquefaction The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation presents insights into the Bangladesh earthquake risk assessment project. These presentations will explore scenario earthquakes, a customized seismic hazard model, and the assessment of earthquake-induced liquefaction hazards. 1. Scenario earthquakes for Bangladesh hazard and risk analysis by Richard Styron This presentation explores the concept of scenario earthquakes and their role in analysing earthquake hazards and risks in Bangladesh. Richard Styron will discuss the specific scenarios considered for Bangladesh, providing insights for understanding potential earthquake impacts. Watch 2. PSHA Model for Indian sub-continent: tailored version of Nath and Thingbaijam (2012) by Kendra Johnson Kendra Johnson will present a tailored version of the PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) model developed by Nath and Thingbaijam (2012) for the Indian subcontinent. This presentation will explain how this model has been adapted to provide a more accurate assessment of earthquake hazards specific to Bangladesh. Watch 3. Earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard assessment: scenario and probabilistic analysis by Lana Todorovic This presentation by Lana Todorovic focuses on earthquake-induced liquefaction, a major concern in Bangladesh due to its river delta geography. Lana will discuss both scenario-based and probabilistic approaches to assessing liquefaction hazard, providing valuable information for mitigating this specific earthquake risk. Watch Anchor3 BUSINESS NEWS March 6 presentation Humanitarian Organisations 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS March 5 OpenQuake Training 1/4 BUSINESS NEWS March 4 presentation 1/1 BUSINESS NEWS March 3 meeting with MoDRM 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS Images from online meetings: September to December 2023 1/1 Publications Interim Substantive Reports The documents below are interim substantive reports on the project "Earthquake Vulnerability and Systemic Risk Assessment in Bangladesh". The main objective of the project is to develop a detailed earthquake risk model for Bangladesh at the zila and upazila levels. They describe the development of an open-source probabilistic seismic risk model for Bangladesh and provide key insights to decision-makers and stakeholders in the disaster risk mitigation community. a. First Interim Substantive Report This report highlights the need for a seismic risk model in the country and discusses the gaps and needs assessment. The report also explains the technical approach and methodology for developing the risk model, including seismic hazard modeling, liquefaction susceptibility and hazard assessment, exposure modeling, and seismic fragility and vulnerability modeling. The seismic risk assessment process is described, along with the formation of a technical panel and stakeholder engagement. Download the Report b. Second Interim Substantive Report This report provides updates on various aspects of the project, including the development of earthquake scenarios, liquefaction susceptibility and hazard assessment, exposure modeling, and social vulnerability modeling. The report mentions that the project has engaged a technical panel comprising key experts and stakeholders, and their feedback and suggestions are being incorporated into the project. The report also includes information on the distribution of hospitals, clinics, schools, and colleges in Bangladesh. Download the Report c. Final Report This report details the findings of a sub-national earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Bangladesh, undertaken by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation. The project fulfills a specific request from the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the UN Resident Coordinator's Office (UNRCO). The project aimed to develop a comprehensive earthquake risk model for Bangladesh at the district and subdistrict levels. This report details the activities undertaken, including needs assessment, technical consultations, hazard and exposure mapping, vulnerability assessment, risk analysis, stakeholder engagement, and final model dissemination. This assessment provides Bangladesh with crucial data to guide earthquake risk reduction efforts nationwide. Download the Report

Projects ARMENIA POST DRR Improving Post-Disaster Damage Data Collection to Inform Decision Making Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background This project, responding to a request from the World Bank for improved post-disaster damage collection, focuses on the collection of data on physical damage to assets such as buildings (residential, commercial, industrial, public), infrastructure, and crops. The aim is to evaluate the current state-of-the-art in post-disaster damage collection – in protocols, tools and systems – in order to identify a suitable protocol and toolset that could be adopted by the Government of Armenia that would be generalisable and available, allowing adoption by other national government agencies or interested parties. The GEM Foundation leads the consortium working on this project, with the GEM Risk Team undertaking the following main tasks: Review of existing protocols, tools and systems Design of a conceptual protocol and toolset Application to the context of Armenia Recommendations Duration: 2018 Objectives Collection of damage data following major disaster events is a fundamental exercise for a multitude of purposes, such as emergency management, resource allocation, fund mobilization and reconstruction planning. The processes involved, and scales of damage assessments vary by country, peril and context. Numerous sector-specific data collection activities provide an estimation of damage, loss and post-disaster needs in order to provide relief and facilitate the commencement of reconstruction and recovery efforts. The project includes identifying and reviewing tools for collecting data in the field as well as damage data aggregation and reporting tools. Of particular interest is the use case in Armenia, demonstrating the needs of a Ministry of Finance requiring national-level reporting of damage on a sub-national level in a transparent system that allows the user to store, retrieve and interrogate damage data down to the asset-level. Collaborators GEM Foundation, JBA Consulting, CIMA Foundation and Geocom Ltd Funding partner: World Bank Group Location Armenia Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects EU DRR Regional risk modelling and scenario analysis for EU Member States - Seismic risk analysis and exposure data Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background This project supports the World Bank Technical Assistance project "Economic Analysis of Prevention and Preparedness in European Union Member States and Countries under EU Civil Protection Mechanism". The GEM Risk Team provides exposure and probabilistic seismic risk assessments for the 27 EU member states and 6 participating states, building upon the EFEHR ESHM20 hazard and ESRM20 exposure datasets [insert link www.efehr.org ], adding educational and healthcare building stock, and forecasting exposure to 2050. Further, retrofitted vulnerability curves are derived to inform the seismic impact analyses and a cost-benefit analysis. Duration: 2020-2021 Objectives The project is conducted in collaboration with the European Commission’s (EC) Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG ECHO). The objectives of this project are to: 1. Provide regionally-consistent probabilistic seismic risk metrics across Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) countries for population and selected structure types, to inform macro-economic analysis that is to be conducted by the World Bank project team. 2. Provide seismic impact analysis for two selected earthquake scenarios with and without specified DRM intervention, to estimate the impact of that intervention on i) loss due to direct damage and ii) fatalities. This will contribute to cost-benefit analysis of EU-funded DRM investments conducted by the WB project team using the Triple-Dividend framework. Collaborators GEM Foundation Funding partner: World Bank Group Locations EU Member States Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects AELO ASCE Earthquake Loads Overseas (AELO) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The project is carried out within a collaboration between GEM and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and is sponsored by the U.S. Department of State (DoS) and the U.S. Department of Defence (DoD). The aim of the project is to provide a web service for computing design ground motions (on rock and soil) that are compliant with the ASCE guidelines (ASCE 7-16, ASCE 41-17, ASCE 7-22, ASCE 41-23) for 500 locations worldwide. In its inaugural year, AELO focuses on rigorously calculating seismic parameters, including Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Ss, and S1 design values across 500 diverse global locations, particularly emphasizing rock site conditions. This aims to ensure compliance with ASCE7-16 and ASCE41-17 standards, essential for seismic assessment and design practices. In the following year, the project progresses to establish a secure webservice for computing design ground motions. This password-protected platform will provide access to ASCE7-16 and ASCE41-17 aligned calculations, simplifying access to these critical seismic design parameters. Transitioning into the third year, AELO expands its computational scope to encompass ground motion calculations across various soil conditions worldwide, encompassing 500 locations to adhere to ASCE 7-22 and ASCE 41-23 standards. This phase seeks to enhance the breadth of seismic assessments, offering a comprehensive understanding of seismic hazards on diverse soil types. Finally, in its fourth year, the project concludes with the introduction of a sophisticated, password-protected webservice. This platform offers the capability to compute design ground motions based on the latest ASCE7-22 and ASCE41-23 standards, supporting seismic engineers and researchers globally by providing accurate, standardized, and essential seismic design parameters for diverse geographical locations. Duration: 2022 - 2026 Objectives The primary objective of the project is to create a web service capable of calculating design ground motions, both on rock and soil, in adherence to the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) guidelines. These guidelines include ASCE 7-16, ASCE 41-17, ASCE 7-22, and ASCE 41-23. This web service heavily relies on the hazard models that are part of GEM’s global mosaic and the OpenQuake Engine. Collaborators GEM, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with support from the U.S. Department of State (DoS) and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). Location Global (Washington DC, USA) Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects AZERBAIJAN DRR Risk modeling and scenario analysis for Azerbaijan - Seismic risk analysis Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background One of the analyses to be conducted under the World Bank Groups' Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs), is to look at the fiscal and economic impacts of disasters in Azerbaijan, including the size of the macro-fiscal risk posed by earthquakes, floods, and droughts, and identify potential opportunities to increase financial resilience. For the risk modeling and scenario analysis for Azerbaijan, the GEM Risk Team further expands the Azerbaijan model in GEM's Global Seismic Risk Model, by projecting the exposure and risk to 2050 by taking into account the evolving demographics and socio-economic conditions in Azerbaijan. Duration: 2022 Objectives The World Bank is preparing the Country Climate and Development Report for Azerbaijan. The CCDR aims to inform policy dialogue and engagement with the Government of Azerbaijan. This provides an opportunity to carry out several analytical pieces, including in the area of Disaster Risk Management, bringing together existing knowledge on the economic and social impacts of disasters and climate change, and delivering new analytical insights to support policy recommendations. Collaborators GEM Foundation Funding partner: World Bank Group Location Azerbaijan Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects PAPERS Piattaforma Analisi Pericolosità E Rischio Sismico Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation has launched the PAPERS project (Piattaforma Analisi Pericolosità E Rischio Sismico), an initiative aimed at developing a new WebGIS platform for scenario hazard and risk assessment in Italy. The project has been funded as one of the cascade grants launched by the High-Performance Computing, Big Data e Quantum Computing Research Centre, one of the five National Centres established by the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), under Spoke 5 - Environment and Natural Disasters . The first training workshop of the project related to the use of the OpenQuake engine was successfully conducted online on April 1st, 2025, marking the first in a series of planned training events. This first workshop also served for exploring potential third-party contributions to models that could be integrated into the platform. Objectives PAPERS will enhance seismic risk assessment in Italy through advanced computational techniques and open-source models and tools. The project is organised into three modules, each focusing on a critical objective. The first module involves building the operational platform, leveraging the OpenQuake (OQ) Engine. The integration of High-Performance Computing (HPC) will facilitate complex analyses, while interoperability with external software will streamline data management. The second module focuses on updating Italy’s national exposure models. This involves compiling databases of buildings, critical infrastructure, and distributed networks at different geographic scales in the country. The project will integrate existing models with newly available datasets. This effort will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the seismic vulnerability of the Italian-built environment. As part of the third module, the platform will feature preloaded models of seismic hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, along with a range of earthquake scenarios, including historical earthquakes and events from a stochastic catalog based on the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20). Alternative risk mitigation strategies will also be explored through dedicated multi-criteria decision-making approaches. Collaborators Project Coordination: Fondazione GEM (Global Earthquake Model Foundation) Main Collaborating Institution: Università degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro Funding Agency: The project is funded under the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), Mission 4, "Education and Research" - Component 2, "From Research to Business" - Investment Line 1.4, supported by NextGenerationEU. Locations Pilot Site for Seismic Risk Analysis: An Italian city to be determined during the project, intended as a demonstration case for urban-scale seismic risk analysis. Testing Locations: The project will involve data collection and analysis on a national scale across Italy. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects ARISTOTLE Multi-Hazard Expert Advice System for ERCC Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The All Risk Integrated System TOwards Trans-boundary hoListic Early-warning or ARISTOTLE consortium combines a number of services that enable a rapid understanding of events from various natural hazards (earthquakes and tsunami, volcanoes, severe weather and floods) and how they might unfold, thus aiding a deeper interpretation of the resulting hazards and impact. The GEM Foundation is supporting the consortium by providing an assessment of the impact of earthquakes using GEM's global exposure and vulnerability models, with a focus on metrics such as collapsed buildings and displaced people, such that it may provide an added value to existing rapid loss assessment services such as the USGS's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). Visit http://pilot.aristotle.ingv.it/ for more details about the project. Duration: 2022 - 2028 Objectives ARISTOTLE aims to provide Multi-Hazard Advice to the European Research Coordination Centre, either in advance of / during the activation of the EC Civil Protection Mechanism (CPM), in order to increase preparedness and response levels of the EU and to improve the ERCC’s assessment capacity. Collaborators ARISTOTLE is a multi-disciplinary partnership consisting of world-leading scientific centres in the areas of Earth and Climate sciences, providing operational and monitoring services, early warning and information systems as well as contributing to innovation and research actions. Location Global (Rome, Italy) Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects FORCE Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Profile Outcomes Training Schedule Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Overview This project, supported by USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA), aims to enhance earthquake hazard modeling capabilities in small communities, as well as to provide better risk models to account for changes in the number of occupants, structures and economic value exposed to earthquakes and the adverse effects of climate change. The project will evaluate future earthquake risk losses, thus supporting decision makers with risk metrics that account for the expected evolution of the built environment, which are fundamental for the design and implementation of long-term risk reduction measures. Objectives The project aims to strengthen the capacities and understanding to manage and respond to future earthquake risk by: introducing future growth or change into national and global exposure models to enable the quantification of future disaster losses, including those associated with climate change; developing communication and dissemination tools to maximize the uptake of disaster risk information in policy making bodies; and improving the reliability of earthquake hazard and risk assessment, in particular in regions that lack information. To achieve the above, the project will implement five components below: Predicting the evolution of the built environment and population Forecasting future disaster risk due to earthquakes Incorporating infrastructure in exposure modeling for risk assessment Modeling earthquake hazard and risk for small communities Advancing communication and dissemination of risk information Collaborators Funding partner: USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) El Salvador: Science partner: University of El Salvador (contact Manual Menjivar, associate Professor). Government partner: Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, MARN (contacts Douglas Antonio Hernández, Geology Area Coordinator, and Luis Mixco, seismologist). Nepal: Science partner: National Society for Earthquake Technology, NSET (contact Surya Narayan Shrestha, Executive Director). Government partner: National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA). Bhutan: Science partner: College of Science and Technology-Royal University of Bhutan (contact Chimi Wangmo, Head of Department, Civil Engineering DepartmentCheki Dorji). Pacific partners: Secretariat of Pacific Community (SPC), Geoscience, Energy and Maritime Division (contact Litea Biukoto, Geohazards Risk Management Leader) Indian Ocean partner: The Indian Ocean Commission IOC, (contact Gina Bonne, Director) Government partners: Member states and territories of the SPC and IOC through their representatives. Additionally, collaboration is expected from GEM partners Geoscience Australia (GA) and Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS), New Zealand, considering their active role in the region. Location Bhutan, El Salvador, Nepal, and small communities in oceans Seismic Risk Forecasting for a Safer El Salvador The FORCE project assesses El Salvador’s seismic risk today and projects future impacts over the next 30 years under two scenarios: continuing current construction practices or fully adopting modern seismic codes. The findings highlight the urgent need for stronger building regulations to reduce economic and human losses. View summary of results | Download 1. Historical Earthquakes and Their Destructive Potential El Salvador has experienced numerous significant earthquakes, each shaping the country’s approach to disaster preparedness. This dashboard provides a comprehensive analysis of historical seismic events, highlighting their destructive potential and reinforcing the need for proactive risk management to reduce future impacts. Eventos_históricos_potencial_destructivo_Dashboard_Luis_Mixco_PPT View details | Download 2. Seismic Codes and Future Risk Scenarios What role do building regulations play in disaster risk reduction? This study examines the impact of seismic codes on El Salvador’s future risk landscape. By comparing scenarios with and without strengthened regulations, the findings emphasize how improved construction practices can significantly reduce losses and enhance community resilience. Codigo-Riesgo_Futuro View details | Download 3. Forecasting Seismic Risk in El Salvador How will seismic risk evolve in the next 30 years? This risk forecast presents two possible futures - one where risk remains high due to unregulated construction and another where proactive policies and seismic codes reduce vulnerabilities. The results underscore the importance of long-term planning for disaster resilience. Pronostico_Riesgo View details | Download Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Online and Onsite Training Workshops This part of the program is designed to improve the understanding and awareness of earthquake hazards and risks and to help bridge the gap between the information produced in the project sites and its communication to a wide variety of stakeholders through online and onsite training workshops. Under the FORCE project, Spring and Autumn OpenQuake training courses will be offered. Please check back regularly for the latest training activities. Modules covered by the OpenQuake Online Training Courses The online training Modules 2-4, discuss how to explore and prepare the required input files for earthquake scenarios, PSHA (such as hazard maps for different return periods, hazard curves, and uniform hazard spectra), and event-based risk analysis in the OpenQuake-engine, how to run an example and visualise the results. Module 1 OQ Introduction is a self-learning module available at training.openquake.org . OpenQuake Online Training Language: Spanish Upcoming session dates Module II (part 1) February 6, 2024 Module II (part 2) February 20, 2024 Module III February 13, 2024 Module IV February 27, 2024 ----- OpenQuake Training: an online course for beginners Language: English Completed session dates March 20, 2023 March 27, 2023 April 17, 2023 April 24, 2023 ----- Anchor 4 Advancing communication and dissemination of risk information The activities in this component are focused on raising awareness of the public on earthquake hazard and risk by training a diverse group of disaster risk reduction (DRR) professionals together with personnel in charge of communicating risk to the public, and by conducting community-based workshops in the pilot countries. Luis Mixco and GEM’s Cata Yepes Featured on El Salvador’s National News El Salvador’s Ministry of Environment has launched a new tool designed to quickly estimate earthquake damage, enabling a faster response to affected communities. Watch as Luis Mixco, Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources of El Salvador, and GEM’s Cata Yepes discuss this important development in a national news segment. https://youtu.be/MfGn347363c?si=WrpbeeVkjsVFrnZ3 Strengthening Pacific Resilience: Highlights from the Workshop GEM concluded a successful two-day training workshop in Suva, Fiji, as part of the FORCE project. Held on November 18-19, the workshop focused on understanding earthquake hazard and risk in the Southwest Pacific - a region highly vulnerable to seismic activity. Facilitated by GEM’s Catalina Yepes Estrada, Exposure Development Lead, and Kendra Johnson, Senior Seismic Hazard Scientist, the training brought together local stakeholders and experts to explore practical approaches to earthquake risk assessment and disaster preparedness. Participants engaged in hands-on exercises using GEM’s OpenQuake engine, explored probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis, and discussed ways to improve resilience through better data and modeling. A key takeaway was the importance of tailoring risk models to local needs, with opportunities for participants to share insights on addressing data and resource challenges unique to the Pacific region. The workshop was held alongside the STAR Conference, where GEM also presented on leveraging hazard and risk models for sustainable development and disaster risk reduction. A big thank you to all participants for their active engagement and to our partners - the Mineral Resources Department (MRD) in Fiji, the Pacific Community (SPC), UNESCO, and the USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance, GEM's funding partner for the FORCE project - for their collaboration in making this event possible. These shared efforts are crucial as we work toward a safer and more resilient future for communities in the Pacific. Read more PSHA for the Oceans Webinar In this webinar, we explored the key features of the Global Seismic Hazard Mosaic and the PAC model, with a special focus on the ocean models in the Southwest Pacific. We presented GEM’s approach to building PSHA models that span vast regions, even in data-scarce areas. Additionally, we highlighted seismic hazard trends across the region, including insights for key population centers. The recording and presentation are now available and can be accessed here: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gemevents/psha-oceans-force-project Read more FORCE project: Groundwork activities gain strong support from local and national stakeholders in Nepal GEM’s USAID-supported Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE) project kicked off in Kathmandu, Nepal from February 20th to 24th by meeting local and national partners involved in disaster risk reduction activities in the country. A half-day introductory workshop for key project stakeholders on February 24th capped the groundwork activities. (report with detailed information ) Read more Strengthening Bhutan's Resilience: GEM's Collaborative Efforts in Seismic Risk Reduction Thimphu, Bhutan - March 15, 2024. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation's USAID-supported project, Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE), recently concluded a successful week of activities in Bhutan (March 11-15, 2024). Led by GEM's Alejandro Calderon and Catarina Costa, the project focuses on strengthening local capacities and improving earthquake risk reduction in the country (report with detailed information ). Read more A Resilient Future: Embracing Innovation and Leveraging Local Expertise and Collaboration to Enhance Seismic Risk Reduction in El Salvador The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation's USAID-supported project, Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE), has been working to help strengthen local capacities and improve earthquake risk reduction in El Salvador. The project has conducted two visits to the country, bringing together government agencies, scientists, engineers, and other stakeholders to discuss seismic hazard assessment, risk analysis, and communication strategies (report with detailed information ). Read more - English | Spanish FORCE Project Update: Predicting Urban Growth and Population Evolution One critical component of this project involves predicting urban growth and population evolution. This involves analysing more than 20 potential drivers of urban development over several decades. These encompass factors such as demographic trends, economic metrics, and land-use patterns. The FORCE team is actively developing urban growth models utilising techniques like regression analysis and machine learning. Currently, these models are undergoing meticulous evaluation to ensure their ability to replicate observed increases in dwelling numbers and construction areas. Read more Earthquakes in El Salvador: What Do We Know and How Could They Affect Us in the Coming Years? GEM's FORCE project made notable developments in #ElSalvador last week. Various meetings and technical activities were conducted highlighted by a workshop that convened stakeholders to discuss the topic "#Earthquakes in El Salvador: What Do We Know and How Could They Affect Us in the Coming Years?" In collaboration with the USAID - Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/BHA), and national partners Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales de El Salvador (MARN) and Dirección General de Protección Civil de El Salvador, this session marked a crucial step in advancing #seismic #risk #understanding and response capabilities. Thanks to all for the productive discussions and active participation! FORCE Project Updates: City Zonation workshops Our sessions with USAID focused on city zonation for #emergencyresponse in #Medellin, followed by a workshop communicating #seismic #risk to first responders in our ongoing collaboration with Universidad EAFIT, #SIATA - Sistema de Alerta Temprana del Valle de Aburrá, and #AMVA - Área Metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá. These initiatives are fundamental in enhancing emergency preparedness efforts. #EmergencyPreparedness #SeismicRiskCommunication SATIC Event, OpenQuake Conference, Cali Risk Assessment and Community Awareness Workshops An event was held at the Banco de la República Auditorium in Cali, Colombia from November 21-25 to present seismic scenarios for Cali using Cali risk models; introduction of OpenQuake Tools; and training workshop for the use of the information repository and risk models, including awareness workshops for the community (local trainers, firefighters, civil defense). Read more Workshop on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA), Risk Analysis, and the OpenQuakeEngine at FEPADE in El Salvador The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) of #ElSalvador and the GEM Foundation successfully concluded a workshop on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (#PSHA), #Risk #Analysis, and the #OpenQuakeEngine at FEPADE in El Salvador, as part of the USAID - Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance-supported #FORCE #Project. This workshop substantially contributes to building local expertise in this crucial pilot project area, reinforcing El Salvador's #earthquake #resilience. We extend heartfelt thanks to our dedicated #local #partners for their invaluable contributions, pivotal in ensuring the success of this event! Read more Online session on seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Pacific Our FORCE project team successfully concluded an online session on seismic hazard and risk assessment in the #Pacific. With participation from 15 attendees representing 7 countries, the session explored Session 1 - Seismic #hazard and #risk information available in the Global Mosaic. Attendees were informed of various #earthquake #hazard and #risk outputs within the GEM Foundation, such as hazard maps, hazard curves, uniform hazard spectra, #exposure models, #vulnerability and #fragility models, and risk metrics. Discussions also focused on what information is included in GEM’s Country Seismic Risk Profiles. These insights underscored the significance of #seismic #assessment in the region. Stay tuned for updates on future sessions! #FORCEProject #SeismicAssessment #GEMFoundation New GEM-USAID Project Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE) launched On the heels of the successful completion of the TREQ project partnership this year, GEM and USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) are embarking on a new project called Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk or FORCE. The project aims to strengthen the capacities and understanding to manage and respond to future earthquake risk. Read more Anchor3 BUSINESS NEWS Workshop summarising the USAID-supported initiative in El Salvador led by GEM’s local partners, January 21-24, 2025 The activities focused on sharing and communicating the project's outcomes, including updated earthquake hazard and risk models, impact metrics, and capacity-building activities. GEM's Alejandro Calderon and Catalina Yepes-Estrada joined as participants to share insights on project outcomes, tools, and lessons learned with stakeholders. 1/4 BUSINESS NEWS Strengthening Pacific Resilience: Highlights from the Workshop - November 18-19, 2024, Suva, Fiji GEM concluded a successful two-day training workshop in Suva, Fiji, as part of the FORCE project. Held on November 18-19, the workshop focused on understanding earthquake hazard and risk in the Southwest Pacific - a region highly vulnerable to seismic activity. 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS Activities in Bhutan (March 11-15, 2024) A series of technical meetings and workshops on the FORCE project in Bhutan was held from the 11th to the 15th of March 2024. 1/3 BUSINESS NEWS El Salvador Stakeholder Workshop January 11, 2024 Earthquakes in El Salvador: What Do We Know and How Could They Affect Us in the Coming Years? 1/8 BUSINESS NEWS El Salvador Meetings January 9, 2024 Meetings with the Protección Civil de El Salvador. 1/3 BUSINESS NEWS Medellin Workshops December 2023 with AMVA Workshops on city zonation for #emergencyresponse in #Medellin , followed by a workshop communicating #seismic #risk to first responders in our ongoing collaboration with Universidad EAFIT , #SIATA - Sistema de Alerta Temprana del valle de Aburrá, and #AMVA - Área Metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá. 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS El Salvador November 2023 Workshop Introduction to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard (PSHA) and Risk Analysis and the OpenQuake Engine with MARN hosted by the Fundación Empresarial para el Desarrollo Educativo (FEPADE) November 6-10, 2023. 1/5 BUSINESS NEWS SATIC event in Cali, Colombia Nov 21-25, 2022 1/6 BUSINESS NEWS Kick-off meetings in Nepal The launch meetings of the FORCE project – Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk were held in the city of Kathmandu, Nepal, from 20th to 24th February 2023. 1/11 Publications Similar to the TREQ project, reports and publications relevant to each of the FORCE project components will be produced and published in due course. This page is dedicated to this purpose. Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Risk - Bhutan Technical Visits in Bhutan A series of technical meetings and workshops of the FORCE project – Forecasting and Communication Earthquake Risk – were held in Bhutan from the 11th to the 15th of March 2024. One-to-one meetings were organised with the main governmental departments involved in Disaster Risk Reduction activities in the country, along with a workshop held in Thimphu on 12th March 2024, that included an important group of stakeholders. Moreover, a presentation to students and college staff from the Royal University of Bhutan in Phuentsholing was held on the 14th of March 2024. Representatives of the GEM Foundation and the College of Science and Technology (CST) from the Royal University of Bhutan (RUB) attended all meetings and were the coordinators of the visit activities in the country. Pronostico y Comunicacion de Riesgos por Terremotos Visitas técnicas en El Salvador EL proyecto FORCE: Pronóstico y comunicación de la amenaza y el riesgo de terremotos (Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk por sus siglas en inglés), realizó dos visitas a El Salvador con el objetivo de fortalecer las capacidades locales y la comunicación de los resultados de riesgo sísmico a las diferentes entidades que forman parte de la prevención, gestión y respuesta ante terremotos destructivos en el país. De la mano del Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (MARN) se realizaron talleres y reuniones con diferentes actores del sector público como Protección Civil, Ministerio de Obras Públicas, Fondo de Conservación Vial de El Salvador, Cuerpo de Bomberos, Ministerio de Educación, Instituto Salvadoreño del Seguro Social, Oficina de Planificación del Área Metropolitana de San Salvador (OPAMSS), entre otros. Kick-off meetings in Nepal FORCE Project The launch meetings of the FORCE project – Forecasting and Communication Earthquake Risk were held in Kathmandu, Nepal, from 20th to 24th February 2023. Multiple one-to-one meetings were held with the main governmental departments involved in Disaster Risk Reduction activities, and a workshop with an important group of stakeholders was held on 24th February 2023. Representatives of the GEM Foundation and NSET attended all meetings and will be the coordinators of the project activities in the country. Disclaimer The contents of this project website such as studies, reports, audio-visual, news articles, blogs, and other information or media products including those in the external links are made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

Projects SIGMA3 SeismIc hazard and Ground Motion Assessment Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Work Packages Training Dissemination Photos Publications Anchor 6 Overview SIGMA3 is a research and development (R&D) program on SeIsmic hazard and Ground Motion Assessment. It is the 3rd part of a larger R&D initiative initiated in 2011 to support innovation in the field of probabilistic hazard assessment (PSHA). SIGMA3 is fully funded by the industry at 100%. The program grounds its roots in methodological developments, as well as in the identified shortcomings of the two preceding editions, labelled SIGMA and SIGMA2. The previous two programs have led to insightful datasets and models to accompany the inception of probabilistic site-specific PSHA studies in low-to-moderate seismicity areas, such as France, for instance. However, nowadays, additional progress is still needed to reduce epistemic uncertainties and improve confidence in probabilistic seismic hazard studies. To this end, SIGMA3 gathers a group of researchers and engineers actively involved in the seismic hazard community and recognized for their expertise. More details about the project are available here: https://sigma-programs.com/ Objectives The SIGMA program is a Research and Development project about seismic hazard and ground motion. It has the objective to improve data and develop methods necessary to best estimate SHA by producing Hazard levels more adapted to the site. Improve available practices for safety demonstration to get consensus with the largest international community for R&D and industrial applications Improve confidence and accountability in seismic hazard assessments by quantifying and propagating uncertainties on Seismic Source and Ground Motion Characterization Strengthen the link between seismologists and engineers, and share feedback among consortium members Collaborators Steering Committee The Steering Committee handles strategic and technical decision-making in the SIGMA3 program and provides recommendations on the program’s orientation, informed by the Scientific Committee’s expertise. Composition: Emmanuel Viallet (EDF France), Fabrice Hollender (CEA France), Vojtech Spanihel (CEZ Group Czech Republic), Masato Nakajima (CRIEPI Japan), Albert Kottke (PG&E USA), Fabienne Chawla (SwissNuclear Switzerland), Ludovic Fulop (VTT Finland) Scientific Committee The members of the SIGMA3 Scientific Committee are independent experts in their field, providing recommendations, insights, and reviews on activities performed through the program. Composition: Philippe RENAULT (Chairperson), Norman ABRAHAMSON, Laurent BOLLINGER, Emmanuel CHALJUB, Maria José CRESPO, John DOUGLAS, Zeynep GULERCE, Sadanori HIGASHI, Pierre LABBE, Ian MAIN, Adrian RODRIGUEZ-MAREK, Alain PECKER, Gabriel TORO, Kris VANNESTE, Jérôme VERGNE Location Global (coordinating agency located in France) Sigma 3 Technical Program Supported by ´Electricité de France (EDF), GEM’s activities cover three work packages: For more details on Sigma3's work packages (WP), click here . 1. Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis. This activity builds upon work carried out in 2024 within the framework of a collaboration with OGS, Trieste. 2. Development and methodologies for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. In this WP, we will further develop capabilities to compute the conditional aftershock hazard and propagate epistemic uncertainties efficiently. 3. Development of a Simulation Platform. The objective of this activity is to generate a set of Python tools for evaluating fundamental components of a hazard input model - namely, source, ground motion, and site effects - used in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) computations. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Conferences and Events For the latest events, training, seminars/webinars and conferences, please visit: https://sigma-programs.com/dissemination-sigma-3/conferences-and-events/ Anchor 4 SIGMA3 - SeismIc hazard and Ground Motion Assessment This section contains outreach activities conducted by the SIGMA3 program. For more details, click here . 1. News - https://sigma-programs.com/dissemination-sigma-3/news/ 2. Conferences and Events - https://sigma-programs.com/dissemination-sigma-3/conferences-and-events/ Anchor3 BUSINESS NEWS 1st General Assembly - June 2025, Helsinki (Finland) 1/1 BUSINESS NEWS Sigma3 Kick-Off - 11 June 2024, Aix-en-Provence (France) 1/1 Publications SIGMA3 - Publications and Reports This section contains project publications and reports as they become available. The list of currently available materials can be accessed here: https://sigma-programs.com/sigma-3/dissemination-sigma-3/publications-reports/