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Projects WB-Istanbul Seismic impact scenarios for Istanbul Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background Türkiye is situated in a seismically active region, with a history of significant earthquakes that have led to substantial loss of life, economic disruption, and damage to infrastructure. The country's rapid urbanization and the presence of numerous buildings constructed before the introduction of modern building codes contribute to its vulnerability to seismic events. Istanbul, Türkiye’s largest city, is of particular concern due to its high population density, economic significance, and the potential impact of a major earthquake. The city has a mix of old and new structures, with many residential buildings constructed before the year 2000, when the country's modern building codes were introduced. These older structures are often not designed to withstand significant seismic forces, making them particularly susceptible to damage or collapse in the event of an earthquake. Given this context, there is a critical need to understand the costs associated with retrofitting and reconstructing buildings to meet current seismic safety standards. The World Bank was interested in preparing accurate unit cost estimations for both reconstruction and retrofitting scenarios. Such estimations are essential for planning, budgeting, and implementing risk reduction activities. Additionally, preparing seismic impact scenarios for Istanbul is imperative to quantify the potential post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction costs, identify the most vulnerable structures, and inform prioritization of interventions that can mitigate the risks posed by earthquakes. Duration: 2024 Objectives The objectives of this Consultancy were: Provide information on the cost per square meter (USD) for reconstruction and various retrofitting options in the case of Türkiye for pre-2000 residential buildings, considering emerging information from the 2023 earthquakes on building performance/vulnerability. Provide seismic impact scenarios for the Istanbul metropolitan area, with disaggregated information on building types, building age, and spatial areas, considering at least four different earthquake scenarios. The analysis was expected to consider damage estimates (considering pre-earthquake costs), as well as recovery and reconstruction costs that consider build back better, emergency response costs, surge pricing, etc. Collaborators Collaborators: GEM Foundation Funding partner: World Bank Group Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects CAREC Phase II CAREC Phase II: Developing a Disaster and Climate Risk Transfer Facility in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Updates Anchor 6 Overview This project builds upon the modelling and analytical work conducted under TA-9878 ( https://www.globalquakemodel.org/proj/carec ) and involves the preparation and implementation of a pilot disaster relief bond (DRB) that will be issued by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for two countries, namely, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. The pilot DRB will complement existing climate and disaster risk financing tools and will be structured to encourage the adoption of risk-reduction and climate-adaptation actions. It will also direct relief assistance to the most vulnerable groups, including women and small and medium-sized enterprises, through pre-agreed response plans developed with the pilot countries. GEM's contribution to the project includes: Build upon the work conducted under TA-9878, review modeling to ensure that it is up-to-date and aligned with the pilot countries’ and investors’ expectations Update exposure data for the two pilot countries based on updated housing and socio-economic data Update seismic hazard and risk modelling for the two pilot countries to serve as the basis for the DRB structuring and placement Undertake historical events analysis for the two pilot countries, considering all potentially damaging events since 1907 Provide earthquake model outputs required to determine the trigger form, level of coverage, and size and positioning of the DRB (when the policy attaches, detaches and how much it pays), in close consultation with WTW, Munich Re, Verisk, ADB, and the pilot countries Update the earthquake data underlying the user-friendly graphic interface developed in the previous CAREC project for the two pilot countries, to help illustrate modeling results and cost-benefits of the risk transfer options as well as disaster risk reduction measures, allowing capacity building, facilitating consultation workshops and supporting the decision process Support the preparation of knowledge products on earthquake risk modeling and financing Duration: 2025-2026 Objectives Key objectives involved: Review existing risk modelling for earthquakes in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, and update and perform more detailed and granular risk modeling, as required; Conduct dynamic risk analysis to estimate capital requirements, reinsurance options, and the impacts of various historical or possible future scenarios on the facility’s operations; Support capacity building workshops to enhance countries’ understanding of disaster risk, including insurance solutions, and the process required for making informed disaster risk financing decisions; and Provide modeling outputs through a transparent and user-friendly interface/tool to inform the terms and design of the facility’s initial product offering, ensuring that is both relevant to the countries and financially sustainable over the longer term. Collaborators Collaborators: Willis Towers Watson (WTW), GEM Foundation, Munich Re, Verisk Funding partner: Asian Development Bank (ADB) Location Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Project Data Sheet Asian Development Bank (ADB) project materials - overview, project details, documents. New ADB Program to Help Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan Respond to Disasters The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $56.4 million program to help the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan boost their capacity to respond to disasters. Both countries are vulnerable to disasters, such as earthquakes and floods, but lack the fiscal capacity and risk transfer mechanisms to effectively respond to hazards. The Risk-Layered Disaster Relief Finance Program will enhance their financial preparedness through a combination of two pre-arranged ADB financing instruments targeting different layers of disaster risks. Anchor3 Publications

Projects PAPERS Piattaforma Analisi Pericolosità E Rischio Sismico Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation has launched the PAPERS project (Piattaforma Analisi Pericolosità E Rischio Sismico), an initiative aimed at developing a new WebGIS platform for scenario hazard and risk assessment in Italy. The project has been funded as one of the cascade grants launched by the High-Performance Computing, Big Data e Quantum Computing Research Centre, one of the five National Centres established by the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), under Spoke 5 - Environment and Natural Disasters . The first training workshop of the project related to the use of the OpenQuake engine was successfully conducted online on April 1st, 2025, marking the first in a series of planned training events. This first workshop also served for exploring potential third-party contributions to models that could be integrated into the platform. Objectives PAPERS will enhance seismic risk assessment in Italy through advanced computational techniques and open-source models and tools. The project is organised into three modules, each focusing on a critical objective. The first module involves building the operational platform, leveraging the OpenQuake (OQ) Engine. The integration of High-Performance Computing (HPC) will facilitate complex analyses, while interoperability with external software will streamline data management. The second module focuses on updating Italy’s national exposure models. This involves compiling databases of buildings, critical infrastructure, and distributed networks at different geographic scales in the country. The project will integrate existing models with newly available datasets. This effort will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the seismic vulnerability of the Italian-built environment. As part of the third module, the platform will feature preloaded models of seismic hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, along with a range of earthquake scenarios, including historical earthquakes and events from a stochastic catalog based on the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20). Alternative risk mitigation strategies will also be explored through dedicated multi-criteria decision-making approaches. Collaborators Project Coordination: Fondazione GEM (Global Earthquake Model Foundation) Main Collaborating Institution: Università degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro Funding Agency: The project is funded under the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), Mission 4, "Education and Research" - Component 2, "From Research to Business" - Investment Line 1.4, supported by NextGenerationEU. Locations Pilot Site for Seismic Risk Analysis: An Italian city to be determined during the project, intended as a demonstration case for urban-scale seismic risk analysis. Testing Locations: The project will involve data collection and analysis on a national scale across Italy. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects GEOINQUIRE GeoINQUIRE: Geosphere INfrastructures for QUestions into Integrated REsearch Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The GeoINQUIRE project provides and enhances access to selected key data, products, and services, enabling the dynamic processes within the geosphere to be monitored and modelled at new levels of spatial and temporal detail and precision. Geo-INQUIRE benefits from a unique partnership of 51 partners consisting of major national research institutes, universities, national geological surveys, and European consortia. Geo-INQUIRE will enhance and make interoperable the activities of the involved partners and conduct dedicated training programs for their optimal use. A portfolio of 150 Virtual Access (VA) and Transnational Access (TA, both virtual and on-site) installations will be offered to the scientific community. The GEM Foundation is offering one of the Virtual Access services within the geohazard-and-multi-risk-assessment portfolio of services; this service will provide access to earthquake and secondary hazards impact data. More information: https://www.geo-inquire.eu/about/about-geo-inquire Duration: 2022 - 2026 Objectives The project aims to overcome cross-domain barriers, especially the land-sea-atmosphere environments, and will exploit innovative data management techniques, modelling and simulations methods, developments in AI and big data, and extend existing data infrastructures to disseminate these resources to the wider scientific community, including the EOSC landscape. Collaborators Please refer to: https://www.geo-inquire.eu/about/partners Funding partner: European Commission Location Potsdam, Germany Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects TURKEY DRR Seismic risk and exposure data for Turkey Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The World Bank is developing a thematic Paper on Building Climate and Disaster Resilience in Turkey that will apply a new World Bank Guidance Note on how to prepare resilience and adaptation strategies. The Guidance Note provides a practical guide for designing national strategies for climate change adaptation and resilience. It specifies actions that reflect universal principles of effective climate change adaptation and disaster resilience, emphasizing that each country needs to tailor the relative importance and sequencing of these actions to its specific needs and priorities. Given the best practice of mitigating natural hazards for a more resilient future, and the high risk of catastrophic earthquakes, the adaptation paper needs to consider seismic risk in Turkey. To contribute to the seismic risk component of this adaptation paper, the GEM Risk Team is responsible for the following tasks: - Assessment of earthquake ground shaking hazard in Turkey - Definition of the exposure: residential, commercial and industrial buildings; education and healthcare facilities; population - Assessment of vulnerability/fragility for the exposed elements - Risk modelling based on the current exposure - Risk projections to 2030 and 2050 (based on future socio-economic conditions) Duration: 2021 Objectives The World Bank thematic Paper on Building Climate and Disaster Resilience in Turkey aims to support the Turkish government by providing guidance on how to prepare resilience and adaptation strategies, including those related to earthquakes. The objectives of this project are to: 1. Provide deterministic and probabilistic seismic risk metrics in Turkey for population and selected structure types, to inform macro-economic and public finance analysis (conducted by the World Bank project team). 2. Provide seismic impact analysis for three earthquake scenarios aimed at reducing risk in Turkey to estimate the impact of these interventions on i) loss due to direct damage and ii) fatalities. Collaborators GEM Foundation Funding partner: World Bank Group Location Turkey Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects GEORGIA DRR Capacity building to understand and take action on seismic risks in Georgia Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background This project aims to enhance the understanding of earthquake impacts in Georgia and to address the following two challenges: i. The lack of understanding of potential earthquake risk and the impact on people, infrastructure and the economy at large; and ii. the lack of efforts to reduce the vulnerability of existing infrastructure, particularly critical emergency response infrastructure. The project is divided into 5 tasks, with the GEM Risk Team contributing to all tasks, with a specific emphasis on developing exposure models, identifying vulnerability models and running the probabilistic seismic risk assessment with the OpenQuake engine: Task 1 – Project Inception Task 2 – Preparation of Input Data & Development of Input Models Task 3 – Seismic Risk Analysis Task 4 – Recommendations on Risk Reduction Strategy Task 5 – Capacity Building Workshops Duration: 2020-2021 Objectives The objective of this project is to provide greater insight to the World Bank into the exposure of Georgia’s emergency response sectors to earthquakes and the potential consequences, as well as strategies to build seismic resilience in these sectors. The findings allow the World Bank to develop recommendations and better advise the Government of Georgia on how to: i. enhance its capacity to plan for future risk reduction investment programs based on a better understanding of earthquake risk in emergency response buildings; ii. develop options for a framework for a future short, medium and long-term intervention strategy; and iii. communicate and build consensus on earthquake risks and potential interventions in key sectors. Collaborators GEM Foundation, Arup, Progress Project LLC, Ilia State University Funding partner: World Bank Group Location Georgia Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects BANGLADESH Earthquake Vulnerability and Systemic Risk Assessment in Bangladesh Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Background This project follows a specific support request made by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office (UNRCO) for a sub-national earthquake hazard and risk assessment in Bangladesh. The GEM Foundation has the role of technical expert lead of the project which will include the following activities: Needs and Gaps Assessment Technical Panel Formation and Initial Consultations Seismic Hazard Mapping Exposure Mapping Seismic Vulnerability Assessment Seismic Risk Mapping and Interpretation Stakeholder Consultation and Validation Preliminary Model Dissemination and Training Workshop Funding and technical partner: UNDRR Duration: 2023 - 2024 Objectives The main objective of this project is to develop a detailed, open, sub-national earthquake risk model and evaluate seismic risk for Bangladesh at the zila and upazila levels. The complete risk model will comprise a probabilistic seismic hazard model, a building exposure model, and a seismic fragility and vulnerability model for the building stock of Bangladesh. Additionally, it includes critical scenarios for key cities, identified based on the results of the probabilistic risk assessment and in consultation with local stakeholders and experts, in a panel led by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR), and including representatives from the Ministry of Housing and Public Works, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Geological Survey of Bangladesh, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, and University of Dhaka.` Collaborators In collaboration with the GEM Foundation, the Technical Panel steering this seismic risk assessment initiative is a collaborative assembly of key stakeholders and experts. Led by the Additional Secretary of Bangladesh's Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR), it comprises representatives from vital entities, including the Department Of Disaster Management (DDM), the Fire Service and Civil Defence of Bangladesh, the Ministry of Housing & Public Works (MoHPW), and the Statistics and Informatics Division (SID) of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). In addition, the panel includes the participation of seasoned national experts specializing in seismic hazard and risk assessment from institutions such as the University of Dhaka (DU), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), and Jahangirnagar University (JU). Further enriching the panel's knowledge base are contributions from the Geological Survey of Bangladesh, the Centre for Urban Studies (CUS), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Bangladesh.) Location Bangladesh Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment Results This section summarises the various assessments conducted to understand the potential impact of earthquakes in Bangladesh. These assessments cover a range of factors, including the likelihood and severity of ground shaking, liquefaction potential, exposure of people and buildings, vulnerability of infrastructure, and the overall seismic risk posed to the country. The following list details the outputs generated from each assessment. Bangladesh Profiles | Past Earthquakes **ALL RESULTS ARE PRELIMINARY AND UNDER REVIEW** a. Population and Building Exposure Exposure models play a critical role in seismic risk assessment by quantifying the potential exposure of buildings and infrastructure to earthquake hazards. These models are structured databases that catalogue the characteristics of buildings within a specific geographic area, including their location, construction material, age, occupancy type, and structural design. The depth and accuracy of this data directly influence the effectiveness of the seismic risk evaluations, as they allow for a detailed understanding of how different structures are likely to perform during an earthquake. Download Files b. Infrastructure Exposure In addition to residential, industrial, and commercial structures that were previously covered by GEM’s exposure models at the zila level (which have been updated to the upazila level during this project), we have also developed exposure models for the healthcare and educational facilities at the country, including all hospitals and clinics, and all schools, colleges, and universities. Map | Profile c. Earthquake Scenarios The project also constructed the rupture geometries for these events, selected a range of ground motion models, and assessed the potential impact—both in terms of damage and losses—that each event could inflict on the country if it were to occur today. The full scenario set consists of twelve events: seven historical events from 1664-1918, chosen out of many in this period, supplemented by five hypothetical events. Download Files d. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment The seismic hazard modelling and mapping section describes the approach taken to assess the seismic hazard in Bangladesh with the goal of creating a comprehensive seismic hazard model for Bangladesh that can be used for risk assessment and mitigation. The project started with a probabilistic seismic hazard model for the Indian subcontinent, which was updated and implemented for the OpenQuake engine. The model includes seismogenic source models, ground motion models, and considers various tectonic regions. This section also mentions the review of the seismic source model for northeast India and the improvements made to the model. Download Files e. Liquefaction Hazard Assessment The section "Liquefaction susceptibility and hazard assessment" discusses the inclusion of regional liquefaction occurrence models in the project, which predict ground failure using existing mapped information and above-ground inferences of below-ground conditions. These models were used for the national scale liquefaction hazard assessment in the second phase of the project identifying the factors that contribute to liquefaction, the methods used for assessment, and the potential damage and losses that can result from liquefaction. Download Files f. Seismic Risk Assessment The project estimated seismic risk metrics utilising the OpenQuake-engine's stochastic event-based risk assessment calculator. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis model was employed to generate earthquake rupture forecasts, forming a stochastic event set over a 100,000-year span. Economic and human losses were computed for each event, producing event loss tables and year loss tables. Risk metrics included exceedance probability curves and average annualized losses. Fatality and injury estimates relied on vulnerability models informed by global earthquake data, with a focus on South Asian building characteristics. Results were tabulated nationally and regionally by the project. The assessment also considers the exposure and risk of healthcare facilities, educational facilities, and the national road network to seismic hazards. Download Files Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Improving global capacity for seismic hazard and risk This part of the program was designed to improve the understanding and awareness of earthquake hazard and risk, and to help bridge the gap between the information produced in detailed hazard and risk assessment studies and its communication to a wide variety of stakeholders (which range from local experts with the remit to assess seismic risk to decision-makers responsible for the implementation of risk reduction measures). a. Website for OpenQuake online training The OpenQuake online training was designed for different types of audiences with diverse backgrounds and expertise. Through this platform, participants interact with GEM scientific and technical teams to learn the main concepts of earthquake risk assessment, along with the basic features of the engine. [English ] b. Onsite Training Workshop One-day workshop designed to improve the understanding and awareness of earthquake hazard and risk and to help bridge the gap between the information produced in the project and its communication to a wide variety of stakeholders. The session allowed participants to explore and prepare the required input files for earthquake scenarios in the OpenQuake engine. OQ Engine Video Tutorials | English | Example Material Anchor 4 Communicating and raising earthquake risk awareness The activities in this component focused on raising the awareness of the public on earthquake hazard and risk by training a diverse group of disaster risk reduction (DRR) professionals together with personnel in charge of communicating risk to the public, and by conducting community-based workshops in selected areas of the pilot cities by those who were trained by the project. Speech by Domenico Scalpelli (WFP Representative) on the presentation of the Earthquake Risk Assessment Results The speech was delivered on March 6, 2024 at Six Season Hotel, Hall Room, Bunka, Bangladesh (10:00 am to 12:30 pm). "While Bangladesh has been fortunate to avoid a significant earthquake in the past century, historical data suggests earthquakes are a threat. This analysis, considering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, provides a foundation for evidence-based decision-making to guide preventive measures, enhance preparedness, and fortify our ability to respond." Read more | UNDRR Bangladesh article a. GEM presentation to the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR), Bangladesh This is an introductory presentation on Bangladesh's earthquake risk assessment project that outlines past efforts, emphasises the need for a nationwide evaluation, and introduces the GEM Foundation's methodology. It highlights completed division-level risk maps and ongoing project activities like data collection, vulnerability assessment, and stakeholder engagement. Additionally, five other presentations below will address different aspects of the project in Bangladesh. View Presentation b. Technical Panel Session #1 This presentation discusses the methodology used to collect and process data related to earthquake risk components such as hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. It also mentions the project activities and the formation of a technical panel for consultation and validation. View Presentation c. Technical Panel Session (PSHA) #2 This presentation is about the tailored version of the PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) model for the Indian sub-continent, which is based on the original model developed by Nath and Thingbaijam in 2012. The presentation discusses the main areas identified for improvement in the model, the changes that were introduced, and the impact of these changes on the hazard results. View Presentation d. Technical Panel Session (Scenario Ruptures) #2 This presentation is about the hazard analysis of earthquakes in Bangladesh, including an overview of the fault systems, historical ruptures, and potential ruptures. It also mentions the ground motion models used for the analysis. View Presentation e. Technical Panel Session #3 This presentation focuses on exposure and physical and social vulnerability, as components of seismic risk. It discusses the details of exposure models, seismic vulnerability analysis, and social vulnerability. The presentation also mentions the use of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the INFORM Index in assessing and understanding the seismic risk in Bangladesh. View Presentation f. Technical Panel Session (Scenarios and Risk) #4 This presentation details data collection and processing methods for seismic hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. It presents preliminary results on potential earthquake impacts like building collapse and economic loss using an 1885 event as an example. The presentation also mentions probabilistic risk assessment and division-level risk maps, alongside details about 12 "scenario ruptures" based on historical and potential earthquake events. View Presentation g. Technical Panel Session (Liquefaction) #4 This presentation focuses on factors such as soil liquefaction, susceptibility to ground failure, population density, urbanisation, and the country's river delta geography. It discusses various methodologies and models used to assess liquefaction hazard and suggests the use of geospatial methodologies for identifying areas with a higher likelihood of occurrence. View Presentation h. Final UNDRR-GEM Bangladesh - MoDMR Presentation This presentation summarises the findings of a sub-national earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Bangladesh, conducted by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation in collaboration with MoDMR, UNDRR and UNRCO. It details the development of a comprehensive earthquake risk model for Bangladesh at the district and sub-district levels. The presentation covers the methodologies employed, including assessments of seismic hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Stakeholder engagement and the final earthquake risk model for Bangladesh are also presented. View Presentation Videos - Ruptures, PSHA and Liquefaction The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation presents insights into the Bangladesh earthquake risk assessment project. These presentations will explore scenario earthquakes, a customized seismic hazard model, and the assessment of earthquake-induced liquefaction hazards. 1. Scenario earthquakes for Bangladesh hazard and risk analysis by Richard Styron This presentation explores the concept of scenario earthquakes and their role in analysing earthquake hazards and risks in Bangladesh. Richard Styron will discuss the specific scenarios considered for Bangladesh, providing insights for understanding potential earthquake impacts. Watch 2. PSHA Model for Indian sub-continent: tailored version of Nath and Thingbaijam (2012) by Kendra Johnson Kendra Johnson will present a tailored version of the PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) model developed by Nath and Thingbaijam (2012) for the Indian subcontinent. This presentation will explain how this model has been adapted to provide a more accurate assessment of earthquake hazards specific to Bangladesh. Watch 3. Earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard assessment: scenario and probabilistic analysis by Lana Todorovic This presentation by Lana Todorovic focuses on earthquake-induced liquefaction, a major concern in Bangladesh due to its river delta geography. Lana will discuss both scenario-based and probabilistic approaches to assessing liquefaction hazard, providing valuable information for mitigating this specific earthquake risk. Watch Anchor3 BUSINESS NEWS March 6 presentation Humanitarian Organisations 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS March 5 OpenQuake Training 1/4 BUSINESS NEWS March 4 presentation 1/1 BUSINESS NEWS March 3 meeting with MoDRM 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS Images from online meetings: September to December 2023 1/1 Publications Interim Substantive Reports The documents below are interim substantive reports on the project "Earthquake Vulnerability and Systemic Risk Assessment in Bangladesh". The main objective of the project is to develop a detailed earthquake risk model for Bangladesh at the zila and upazila levels. They describe the development of an open-source probabilistic seismic risk model for Bangladesh and provide key insights to decision-makers and stakeholders in the disaster risk mitigation community. a. First Interim Substantive Report This report highlights the need for a seismic risk model in the country and discusses the gaps and needs assessment. The report also explains the technical approach and methodology for developing the risk model, including seismic hazard modeling, liquefaction susceptibility and hazard assessment, exposure modeling, and seismic fragility and vulnerability modeling. The seismic risk assessment process is described, along with the formation of a technical panel and stakeholder engagement. Download the Report b. Second Interim Substantive Report This report provides updates on various aspects of the project, including the development of earthquake scenarios, liquefaction susceptibility and hazard assessment, exposure modeling, and social vulnerability modeling. The report mentions that the project has engaged a technical panel comprising key experts and stakeholders, and their feedback and suggestions are being incorporated into the project. The report also includes information on the distribution of hospitals, clinics, schools, and colleges in Bangladesh. Download the Report c. Final Report This report details the findings of a sub-national earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Bangladesh, undertaken by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation. The project fulfills a specific request from the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the UN Resident Coordinator's Office (UNRCO). The project aimed to develop a comprehensive earthquake risk model for Bangladesh at the district and subdistrict levels. This report details the activities undertaken, including needs assessment, technical consultations, hazard and exposure mapping, vulnerability assessment, risk analysis, stakeholder engagement, and final model dissemination. This assessment provides Bangladesh with crucial data to guide earthquake risk reduction efforts nationwide. Download the Report

Projects MONGOLIA DRR Strengthening capacity on disaster risk assessment, reduction and transfer instruments in Mongolia Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background This project aims to support Mongolia in developing a set of key disaster risk information and knowledge products for mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management (DRM) into development, including Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance (DRFI). A hazard and risk assessment is conducted at the national and provincial levels and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is promoted for resilience within development and DRFI, and to strengthen the capacity and ability of NEMA, ministries, local government officials and communities to better understand and plan for disaster risks. The project is made up of the following four main components: Conducting multi-hazard disaster risk assessments at the national and local levels; Facilitation of Disaster Reduction planning and mainstreaming through the preparation and delivery of a DRR training program; Development of a strategy for disaster risk financing and revision of the national draft disaster risk insurance law; and Building institutional, technical, and management capacity for DRR and DRF The GEM Risk Team's main contribution to the project is the development of a significantly improved exposure model for Mongolia, based on the latest population and housing census of Mongolia, and a probabilistic seismic risk analyses, making use of GEM's global seismic hazard mosaic. Duration: 2022-2023 Objective The project is implemented in close collaboration with Mongolia’s National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and the Department of Disaster Risk Management (DRMD), who are the executing agency and the implementing agency respectively. The Ministry of Finance is also engaged in strengthening DRF and insurance options. This project advances Mongolia’s progress in addressing the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) priorities by improving the institutional capacities of key ministries and local governments; enhancing understanding of risk; strengthening disaster risk governance; and investing in DRR for resilience through promoting mechanisms for disaster risk transfer, risk-sharing, and insurance. Collaborators GEM Foundation, ICEM Asia Consulting, PwC India, Environ LLC, Willis Towers Watson (WTW), JBA Group, Overseas Development Institute Funding partner: Funded by the Japan Fund of Poverty and Reduction and administered by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Location Mongolia Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects FORCE Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Profile Outcomes Training Schedule Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Overview This project, supported by USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA), aims to enhance earthquake hazard modeling capabilities in small communities, as well as to provide better risk models to account for changes in the number of occupants, structures and economic value exposed to earthquakes and the adverse effects of climate change. The project will evaluate future earthquake risk losses, thus supporting decision makers with risk metrics that account for the expected evolution of the built environment, which are fundamental for the design and implementation of long-term risk reduction measures. Objectives The project aims to strengthen the capacities and understanding to manage and respond to future earthquake risk by: introducing future growth or change into national and global exposure models to enable the quantification of future disaster losses, including those associated with climate change; developing communication and dissemination tools to maximize the uptake of disaster risk information in policy making bodies; and improving the reliability of earthquake hazard and risk assessment, in particular in regions that lack information. To achieve the above, the project will implement five components below: Predicting the evolution of the built environment and population Forecasting future disaster risk due to earthquakes Incorporating infrastructure in exposure modeling for risk assessment Modeling earthquake hazard and risk for small communities Advancing communication and dissemination of risk information Collaborators Funding partner: USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) El Salvador: Science partner: University of El Salvador (contact Manual Menjivar, associate Professor). Government partner: Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, MARN (contacts Douglas Antonio Hernández, Geology Area Coordinator, and Luis Mixco, seismologist). Nepal: Science partner: National Society for Earthquake Technology, NSET (contact Surya Narayan Shrestha, Executive Director). Government partner: National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA). Bhutan: Science partner: College of Science and Technology-Royal University of Bhutan (contact Chimi Wangmo, Head of Department, Civil Engineering DepartmentCheki Dorji). Pacific partners: Secretariat of Pacific Community (SPC), Geoscience, Energy and Maritime Division (contact Litea Biukoto, Geohazards Risk Management Leader) Indian Ocean partner: The Indian Ocean Commission IOC, (contact Gina Bonne, Director) Government partners: Member states and territories of the SPC and IOC through their representatives. Additionally, collaboration is expected from GEM partners Geoscience Australia (GA) and Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS), New Zealand, considering their active role in the region. Location Bhutan, El Salvador, Nepal, and small communities in oceans Seismic Risk Forecasting for a Safer El Salvador The FORCE project assesses El Salvador’s seismic risk today and projects future impacts over the next 30 years under two scenarios: continuing current construction practices or fully adopting modern seismic codes. The findings highlight the urgent need for stronger building regulations to reduce economic and human losses. View summary of results | Download 1. Historical Earthquakes and Their Destructive Potential El Salvador has experienced numerous significant earthquakes, each shaping the country’s approach to disaster preparedness. This dashboard provides a comprehensive analysis of historical seismic events, highlighting their destructive potential and reinforcing the need for proactive risk management to reduce future impacts. Eventos_históricos_potencial_destructivo_Dashboard_Luis_Mixco_PPT View details | Download 2. Seismic Codes and Future Risk Scenarios What role do building regulations play in disaster risk reduction? This study examines the impact of seismic codes on El Salvador’s future risk landscape. By comparing scenarios with and without strengthened regulations, the findings emphasize how improved construction practices can significantly reduce losses and enhance community resilience. Codigo-Riesgo_Futuro View details | Download 3. Forecasting Seismic Risk in El Salvador How will seismic risk evolve in the next 30 years? This risk forecast presents two possible futures - one where risk remains high due to unregulated construction and another where proactive policies and seismic codes reduce vulnerabilities. The results underscore the importance of long-term planning for disaster resilience. Pronostico_Riesgo View details | Download Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Online and Onsite Training Workshops This part of the program is designed to improve the understanding and awareness of earthquake hazards and risks and to help bridge the gap between the information produced in the project sites and its communication to a wide variety of stakeholders through online and onsite training workshops. Under the FORCE project, Spring and Autumn OpenQuake training courses will be offered. Please check back regularly for the latest training activities. Modules covered by the OpenQuake Online Training Courses The online training Modules 2-4, discuss how to explore and prepare the required input files for earthquake scenarios, PSHA (such as hazard maps for different return periods, hazard curves, and uniform hazard spectra), and event-based risk analysis in the OpenQuake-engine, how to run an example and visualise the results. Module 1 OQ Introduction is a self-learning module available at training.openquake.org . OpenQuake Online Training Language: Spanish Upcoming session dates Module II (part 1) February 6, 2024 Module II (part 2) February 20, 2024 Module III February 13, 2024 Module IV February 27, 2024 ----- OpenQuake Training: an online course for beginners Language: English Completed session dates March 20, 2023 March 27, 2023 April 17, 2023 April 24, 2023 ----- Anchor 4 Advancing communication and dissemination of risk information The activities in this component are focused on raising awareness of the public on earthquake hazard and risk by training a diverse group of disaster risk reduction (DRR) professionals together with personnel in charge of communicating risk to the public, and by conducting community-based workshops in the pilot countries. Luis Mixco and GEM’s Cata Yepes Featured on El Salvador’s National News El Salvador’s Ministry of Environment has launched a new tool designed to quickly estimate earthquake damage, enabling a faster response to affected communities. Watch as Luis Mixco, Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources of El Salvador, and GEM’s Cata Yepes discuss this important development in a national news segment. https://youtu.be/MfGn347363c?si=WrpbeeVkjsVFrnZ3 Strengthening Pacific Resilience: Highlights from the Workshop GEM concluded a successful two-day training workshop in Suva, Fiji, as part of the FORCE project. Held on November 18-19, the workshop focused on understanding earthquake hazard and risk in the Southwest Pacific - a region highly vulnerable to seismic activity. Facilitated by GEM’s Catalina Yepes Estrada, Exposure Development Lead, and Kendra Johnson, Senior Seismic Hazard Scientist, the training brought together local stakeholders and experts to explore practical approaches to earthquake risk assessment and disaster preparedness. Participants engaged in hands-on exercises using GEM’s OpenQuake engine, explored probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis, and discussed ways to improve resilience through better data and modeling. A key takeaway was the importance of tailoring risk models to local needs, with opportunities for participants to share insights on addressing data and resource challenges unique to the Pacific region. The workshop was held alongside the STAR Conference, where GEM also presented on leveraging hazard and risk models for sustainable development and disaster risk reduction. A big thank you to all participants for their active engagement and to our partners - the Mineral Resources Department (MRD) in Fiji, the Pacific Community (SPC), UNESCO, and the USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance, GEM's funding partner for the FORCE project - for their collaboration in making this event possible. These shared efforts are crucial as we work toward a safer and more resilient future for communities in the Pacific. Read more PSHA for the Oceans Webinar In this webinar, we explored the key features of the Global Seismic Hazard Mosaic and the PAC model, with a special focus on the ocean models in the Southwest Pacific. We presented GEM’s approach to building PSHA models that span vast regions, even in data-scarce areas. Additionally, we highlighted seismic hazard trends across the region, including insights for key population centers. The recording and presentation are now available and can be accessed here: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gemevents/psha-oceans-force-project Read more FORCE project: Groundwork activities gain strong support from local and national stakeholders in Nepal GEM’s USAID-supported Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE) project kicked off in Kathmandu, Nepal from February 20th to 24th by meeting local and national partners involved in disaster risk reduction activities in the country. A half-day introductory workshop for key project stakeholders on February 24th capped the groundwork activities. (report with detailed information ) Read more Strengthening Bhutan's Resilience: GEM's Collaborative Efforts in Seismic Risk Reduction Thimphu, Bhutan - March 15, 2024. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation's USAID-supported project, Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE), recently concluded a successful week of activities in Bhutan (March 11-15, 2024). Led by GEM's Alejandro Calderon and Catarina Costa, the project focuses on strengthening local capacities and improving earthquake risk reduction in the country (report with detailed information ). Read more A Resilient Future: Embracing Innovation and Leveraging Local Expertise and Collaboration to Enhance Seismic Risk Reduction in El Salvador The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation's USAID-supported project, Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE), has been working to help strengthen local capacities and improve earthquake risk reduction in El Salvador. The project has conducted two visits to the country, bringing together government agencies, scientists, engineers, and other stakeholders to discuss seismic hazard assessment, risk analysis, and communication strategies (report with detailed information ). Read more - English | Spanish FORCE Project Update: Predicting Urban Growth and Population Evolution One critical component of this project involves predicting urban growth and population evolution. This involves analysing more than 20 potential drivers of urban development over several decades. These encompass factors such as demographic trends, economic metrics, and land-use patterns. The FORCE team is actively developing urban growth models utilising techniques like regression analysis and machine learning. Currently, these models are undergoing meticulous evaluation to ensure their ability to replicate observed increases in dwelling numbers and construction areas. Read more Earthquakes in El Salvador: What Do We Know and How Could They Affect Us in the Coming Years? GEM's FORCE project made notable developments in #ElSalvador last week. Various meetings and technical activities were conducted highlighted by a workshop that convened stakeholders to discuss the topic "#Earthquakes in El Salvador: What Do We Know and How Could They Affect Us in the Coming Years?" In collaboration with the USAID - Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/BHA), and national partners Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales de El Salvador (MARN) and Dirección General de Protección Civil de El Salvador, this session marked a crucial step in advancing #seismic #risk #understanding and response capabilities. Thanks to all for the productive discussions and active participation! FORCE Project Updates: City Zonation workshops Our sessions with USAID focused on city zonation for #emergencyresponse in #Medellin, followed by a workshop communicating #seismic #risk to first responders in our ongoing collaboration with Universidad EAFIT, #SIATA - Sistema de Alerta Temprana del Valle de Aburrá, and #AMVA - Área Metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá. These initiatives are fundamental in enhancing emergency preparedness efforts. #EmergencyPreparedness #SeismicRiskCommunication SATIC Event, OpenQuake Conference, Cali Risk Assessment and Community Awareness Workshops An event was held at the Banco de la República Auditorium in Cali, Colombia from November 21-25 to present seismic scenarios for Cali using Cali risk models; introduction of OpenQuake Tools; and training workshop for the use of the information repository and risk models, including awareness workshops for the community (local trainers, firefighters, civil defense). Read more Workshop on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA), Risk Analysis, and the OpenQuakeEngine at FEPADE in El Salvador The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) of #ElSalvador and the GEM Foundation successfully concluded a workshop on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (#PSHA), #Risk #Analysis, and the #OpenQuakeEngine at FEPADE in El Salvador, as part of the USAID - Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance-supported #FORCE #Project. This workshop substantially contributes to building local expertise in this crucial pilot project area, reinforcing El Salvador's #earthquake #resilience. We extend heartfelt thanks to our dedicated #local #partners for their invaluable contributions, pivotal in ensuring the success of this event! Read more Online session on seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Pacific Our FORCE project team successfully concluded an online session on seismic hazard and risk assessment in the #Pacific. With participation from 15 attendees representing 7 countries, the session explored Session 1 - Seismic #hazard and #risk information available in the Global Mosaic. Attendees were informed of various #earthquake #hazard and #risk outputs within the GEM Foundation, such as hazard maps, hazard curves, uniform hazard spectra, #exposure models, #vulnerability and #fragility models, and risk metrics. Discussions also focused on what information is included in GEM’s Country Seismic Risk Profiles. These insights underscored the significance of #seismic #assessment in the region. Stay tuned for updates on future sessions! #FORCEProject #SeismicAssessment #GEMFoundation New GEM-USAID Project Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE) launched On the heels of the successful completion of the TREQ project partnership this year, GEM and USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) are embarking on a new project called Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk or FORCE. The project aims to strengthen the capacities and understanding to manage and respond to future earthquake risk. Read more Anchor3 BUSINESS NEWS Workshop summarising the USAID-supported initiative in El Salvador led by GEM’s local partners, January 21-24, 2025 The activities focused on sharing and communicating the project's outcomes, including updated earthquake hazard and risk models, impact metrics, and capacity-building activities. GEM's Alejandro Calderon and Catalina Yepes-Estrada joined as participants to share insights on project outcomes, tools, and lessons learned with stakeholders. 1/4 BUSINESS NEWS Strengthening Pacific Resilience: Highlights from the Workshop - November 18-19, 2024, Suva, Fiji GEM concluded a successful two-day training workshop in Suva, Fiji, as part of the FORCE project. Held on November 18-19, the workshop focused on understanding earthquake hazard and risk in the Southwest Pacific - a region highly vulnerable to seismic activity. 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS Activities in Bhutan (March 11-15, 2024) A series of technical meetings and workshops on the FORCE project in Bhutan was held from the 11th to the 15th of March 2024. 1/3 BUSINESS NEWS El Salvador Stakeholder Workshop January 11, 2024 Earthquakes in El Salvador: What Do We Know and How Could They Affect Us in the Coming Years? 1/8 BUSINESS NEWS El Salvador Meetings January 9, 2024 Meetings with the Protección Civil de El Salvador. 1/3 BUSINESS NEWS Medellin Workshops December 2023 with AMVA Workshops on city zonation for #emergencyresponse in #Medellin , followed by a workshop communicating #seismic #risk to first responders in our ongoing collaboration with Universidad EAFIT , #SIATA - Sistema de Alerta Temprana del valle de Aburrá, and #AMVA - Área Metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá. 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS El Salvador November 2023 Workshop Introduction to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard (PSHA) and Risk Analysis and the OpenQuake Engine with MARN hosted by the Fundación Empresarial para el Desarrollo Educativo (FEPADE) November 6-10, 2023. 1/5 BUSINESS NEWS SATIC event in Cali, Colombia Nov 21-25, 2022 1/6 BUSINESS NEWS Kick-off meetings in Nepal The launch meetings of the FORCE project – Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk were held in the city of Kathmandu, Nepal, from 20th to 24th February 2023. 1/11 Publications Similar to the TREQ project, reports and publications relevant to each of the FORCE project components will be produced and published in due course. This page is dedicated to this purpose. Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Risk - Bhutan Technical Visits in Bhutan A series of technical meetings and workshops of the FORCE project – Forecasting and Communication Earthquake Risk – were held in Bhutan from the 11th to the 15th of March 2024. One-to-one meetings were organised with the main governmental departments involved in Disaster Risk Reduction activities in the country, along with a workshop held in Thimphu on 12th March 2024, that included an important group of stakeholders. Moreover, a presentation to students and college staff from the Royal University of Bhutan in Phuentsholing was held on the 14th of March 2024. Representatives of the GEM Foundation and the College of Science and Technology (CST) from the Royal University of Bhutan (RUB) attended all meetings and were the coordinators of the visit activities in the country. Pronostico y Comunicacion de Riesgos por Terremotos Visitas técnicas en El Salvador EL proyecto FORCE: Pronóstico y comunicación de la amenaza y el riesgo de terremotos (Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk por sus siglas en inglés), realizó dos visitas a El Salvador con el objetivo de fortalecer las capacidades locales y la comunicación de los resultados de riesgo sísmico a las diferentes entidades que forman parte de la prevención, gestión y respuesta ante terremotos destructivos en el país. De la mano del Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (MARN) se realizaron talleres y reuniones con diferentes actores del sector público como Protección Civil, Ministerio de Obras Públicas, Fondo de Conservación Vial de El Salvador, Cuerpo de Bomberos, Ministerio de Educación, Instituto Salvadoreño del Seguro Social, Oficina de Planificación del Área Metropolitana de San Salvador (OPAMSS), entre otros. Kick-off meetings in Nepal FORCE Project The launch meetings of the FORCE project – Forecasting and Communication Earthquake Risk were held in Kathmandu, Nepal, from 20th to 24th February 2023. Multiple one-to-one meetings were held with the main governmental departments involved in Disaster Risk Reduction activities, and a workshop with an important group of stakeholders was held on 24th February 2023. Representatives of the GEM Foundation and NSET attended all meetings and will be the coordinators of the project activities in the country. Disclaimer The contents of this project website such as studies, reports, audio-visual, news articles, blogs, and other information or media products including those in the external links are made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.