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Projects CCARA Caribbean and Central America Earthquake Risk Assessment (CCARA) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Background Earthquake risk is on the rise and earthquakes are expected to take an increasing number of lives. Hazard and risk assessments are the foundation for raising awareness among policy makers and the general public, forming the basis for decisions and actions that effectively build resilience and can reduce risk. While important work has been carried out in the Central American and Caribbean region to understand earthquake risk assessment and management there is still ample room to enhance that understanding and properly introduce it in decision- and policy-making processes. In many areas of the world, state-of-the-art information and tools to assess earthquake risk have been inaccessible for a long time. As a first step to tackle this problem, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has been created and spent the past 11 years collaboratively advancing open source science and technology for global state-of-the-art seismic hazard and risk modeling, data collection, and risk assessment at scales from local to national, regional, and global. Objectives The project aims to calculate hazard and risk, and to estimate the compounding social and economic factors that increase the physical damage and decrease the post-event capacities of populations to respond to and recover from damaging earthquake events in The Caribbean and Central America, by involving local experts from throughout the region. The goal of the Program in Central America and the Caribbean is to develop capacity in the region for earthquake risk assessment by leveraging GEM tools and resources, to enhance the understanding of earthquake risk, and to bridge the gap between risk assessment and disaster risk reduction. To improve the understanding of earthquake risk in the Central America and Caribbean region while developing local capacities to use open source resources for producing earthquake hazard and risk information at regional, national and local scales. To engage with decision-makers and other end-users to make the connection between advanced risk assessment by local experts and risk-reducing action and so influence DRR policy. Collaborators The CCARA project would not have been possible without the contributions of all the municipalities in particular: the Municipality of San José (Costa Rica), National Commission of Emergencies (CNE), University of Costa Rica (UCR) - Laboratorio Nacional de Materiales y Estructuras (LANAMME), INETER, ONESVIE, ODPEM, BRGM, Bureau des Mines, VT, Geologica UPR Mayaquez, UNI, SRC and UMG. Location Caribbean and Central America countries Website Caribbean and Central America Earthquake Risk Assessment (CCARA) wiki site contains an overview of the project. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 The CCARA project hosted four participants from South America to introduce seismic hazard and risk assessment using tools developed by GEM – specifically the OpenQuake engine. Anchor 4 Modelling subduction earthquakes: GEM experiences in Latin America CCARA project GEM presents the results of the USAID-funded CCARA Project in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic A hazard workshop in San José, Costa Rica from September 18th to 22nd as part of the risk assessment activities of the CCARA project. Anchor3 Publications CCAF-DB: The Caribbean and Central American Active Fault Database Disclaimer The contents of this project website such as studies, reports, audio-visual, news articles, blogs, and other information or media products including those in the external links are made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

Projects READY2RESPOND Rapid Diagnostic in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background Ready2Respond (R2R) is a rapid diagnostic guide, designed to improve national, sub-national and city resilience mechanisms and to protect development gains through investments in emergency preparedness and response systems. It is informed by the World Bank Group (WBG) City Resilience Program (CRP) and other WBG resilience platforms. In this project R2R is applied to the Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh states in the Himalayan region of India. The GEM Risk Team contributes to the project by providing: Literature review and stakeholder mapping around hazard and risk initiatives, risk data and models for both states Provision of seismic hazard/risk model outputs and related descriptive information for both states (to support diagnostic activities) Review of legal regulation of the built environment and associated initiatives Review of seismic preparedness of the critical infrastructure defined in the project Preparation and remote input into stakeholder workshops Duration: 2023 Objectives This project responds to the need to provide effective and comprehensive diagnosis of the Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh states’ emergency preparedness and response systems in the Himalayan region of India. This enables the World Bank and the government to tailor investments to strengthen institutional capacity and capability, ensure public safety, and limit economic disruption in the face of multiple, and often cascading, geological and hydrometeorological hazards. Collaborators GEM Foundation, JBA Consulting, Geo Climate Risk Solutions (GCRS) Funding partner: World Bank Group Location India Himalayas Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects SOLOMON ISLANDS EXPOSURE Assessing the Risk Exposure of Road Network to Climate and Natural Hazard Risks in Solomon Islands Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background This project aims to conduct a robust multi-hazard risk assessment of the road network to climate and natural hazards in the Solomon Islands, both historically and under future climate projections. The project includes three main dimensions: - Characterization of the climate and natural hazards - Physical vulnerability of the road network - Multi-criteria criticality analysis The three main outputs are: - Multi-hazard maps - Road network risk exposure analysis (global risk score) - Identification of "first priority" road segments and estimation of their rehabilitation costs The GEM Hazard Team supports the project by computing seismic hazard maps and uses these to produce maps to classify low to high risks of earthquake hazards, according to their intensity and frequency. Duration: 2021 Objectives Many Small Island Developing States (SIDS) share a major common feature: they are among the most exposed nations to natural hazards and climate change. SIDS are also characterized by insularity and geographic remoteness, as well as small geographic area, economies, and population, all of which increase their social and economic vulnerability. This project aims to assist the Solomon Islands to better manage climate and disaster risks by improving the understanding of risk and the use of this information for risk reduction decision-making, and the design and implementation of investments at the provincial and community level. Collaborators GEM Foundation, ARIA Technologies, Actimar, Suez Consulting, Setec Group Funding partner: World Bank Group Location Solomon Islands Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects METEOR Modelling Exposure Through Earth Observation Routines (METEOR) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Background At present, there is a poor understanding of population exposure in some Official Development Assistance (ODA) countries, which causes major challenges when making Disaster Risk Management decisions. Modelling Exposure Through Earth Observation Routines (METEOR) takes a step-change in the application of Earth Observation exposure data by developing and delivering more accurate levels of population exposure to natural hazards. Providing new consistent data to governments, town planners and insurance providers will promote welfare and economic development in these countries and better enable them to respond to the hazards when they do occur. Objectives METEOR aims to formulate an innovative methodology of creating exposure data through the use of EO-based imagery to identify development patterns throughout a country. Stratified sampling technique harnessing traditional land use interpretation methods modified to characterise building patterns can be combined with EO and in-field building characteristics to capture the distribution of building types. These protocols and standards will be developed for broad application to ODA countries and will be tested and validated for both Nepal and Tanzania to assure they are fit-for-purpose. Objectives of the project look to: deliver exposure data for 47 of the least developed ODA countries, including Nepal and Tanzania; create hazard footprints for the specific countries; create open protocol; to develop critical exposure information from EO data; and capacity-building of local decision makers to apply data and assess hazard exposure. Collaborators METEOR Project Consortium The British Geological Survey (BGS) ImageCat National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET) The Disaster Management Department-Tanzania The Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) Oxford Policy Management Limited (OPM) Fathom Location Nepal, Tanzania For more details on the METEOR Project, click read more below to visit the website. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anirudh and Nicole will be producing vulnerability data for different building types to different hazards for Nepal and Tanzania. About 20 project participants from GEM, Tanzania Prime Minister’s Office-Disaster Management Department (DMD), NSET, BGS, HOT OSM, ImageCat and OPM... Modelling Exposure Through Earth Observation Routines: EO-based Exposure, Nepal and Tanzania granted by the UK Space Agency Anirudh Rao and Nicole Paul participated in the quarterly UK Space Agency #METEOR Project meeting and workshops in Kathmandu, Nepal. Anchor3 Publications To download the METEOR Project official deliverables documents, click the Read More button below.

Projects WB-Istanbul Seismic impact scenarios for Istanbul Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background Türkiye is situated in a seismically active region, with a history of significant earthquakes that have led to substantial loss of life, economic disruption, and damage to infrastructure. The country's rapid urbanization and the presence of numerous buildings constructed before the introduction of modern building codes contribute to its vulnerability to seismic events. Istanbul, Türkiye’s largest city, is of particular concern due to its high population density, economic significance, and the potential impact of a major earthquake. The city has a mix of old and new structures, with many residential buildings constructed before the year 2000, when the country's modern building codes were introduced. These older structures are often not designed to withstand significant seismic forces, making them particularly susceptible to damage or collapse in the event of an earthquake. Given this context, there is a critical need to understand the costs associated with retrofitting and reconstructing buildings to meet current seismic safety standards. The World Bank was interested in preparing accurate unit cost estimations for both reconstruction and retrofitting scenarios. Such estimations are essential for planning, budgeting, and implementing risk reduction activities. Additionally, preparing seismic impact scenarios for Istanbul is imperative to quantify the potential post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction costs, identify the most vulnerable structures, and inform prioritization of interventions that can mitigate the risks posed by earthquakes. Duration: 2024 Objectives The objectives of this Consultancy were: Provide information on the cost per square meter (USD) for reconstruction and various retrofitting options in the case of Türkiye for pre-2000 residential buildings, considering emerging information from the 2023 earthquakes on building performance/vulnerability. Provide seismic impact scenarios for the Istanbul metropolitan area, with disaggregated information on building types, building age, and spatial areas, considering at least four different earthquake scenarios. The analysis was expected to consider damage estimates (considering pre-earthquake costs), as well as recovery and reconstruction costs that consider build back better, emergency response costs, surge pricing, etc. Collaborators Collaborators: GEM Foundation Funding partner: World Bank Group Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects COMET GEM COMET-GEM Central Asia Seismic Hazard Project Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background Since 2021, COMET and GEM have partnered to integrate the latest advancements in earthquake science into seismic hazard and risk modeling. The first phase of the collaboration (2020–2022) focused on building essential datasets, including an active fault database, a homogenized earthquake catalog, GNSS data, and a preliminary seismic hazard model for Central Asia. The ongoing second phase (2023–2025), supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), UK, expands on these efforts by incorporating time-dependent hazard modeling, earthquake clustering analysis, and geodetic data processing. By bridging scientific research with practical applications, the collaboration ensures that hazard models remain at the forefront of earthquake risk assessment, strengthening disaster preparedness efforts in Central Asia and beyond. Duration: Phase 1: 2021 -2023, Phase 2: 2023 - 2025 More details: https://comet.nerc.ac.uk/ Overall Objective The COMET-GEM collaboration aims to develop an advanced, publicly accessible seismic hazard and risk model for Central Asia, integrating cutting-edge scientific methods such as satellite geodesy, palaeoseismology, and geodetic data analysis. The goal is to provide local communities, researchers, and policymakers with robust hazard and risk assessments to inform disaster risk reduction strategies and enhance preparedness for future seismic events. Specific Objectives / Expected Outputs 1. Enhancing Seismic Hazard Models Refining fault databases, earthquake catalogs, and strain rate fields to improve hazard predictions. Incorporating time-dependent earthquake occurrence models and earthquake clustering analysis to improve forecasting. 2. Integrating Advanced Scientific Techniques Utilizing InSAR-based deformation data and GNSS datasets to quantify seismic strain accumulation across Central Asia. Developing high-resolution geodetic velocity fields for improved hazard modeling. 3. Supporting Disaster Risk Reduction Integrating hazard models into seismic risk assessments to estimate economic and human losses. Engaging local communities and stakeholders in seismic hazard model development. 4. Collaborative Research and Capacity Building Hosting workshops and training sessions to enhance regional expertise in seismic hazard assessment. Supporting research collaborations in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and beyond. Collaborators Project Coordination: COMET and GEM, with contributions from UK-based institutions Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation COMET (Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes & Tectonics) British Geological Survey (BGS) University of Oxford (geologic data compilation) University of Leeds (geodetic data processing) Various local and international research institutions Funding Partner: Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), UK Locations Primary Focus Region: Central Asia Additional Areas of Study: South Caucasus, Türkiye, Mongolia Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects GAR 2023 GAR Special Report 2023: Mapping resilience for the Sustainable Development Goals Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)'s Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2023 offers a unique perspective on development progress by emphasizing risk and resilience in a changing climate. The report features maps developed in collaboration with the GEM Foundation and other agencies (United Nations Geospatial Information Section, Environmental Systems Research Institute - ESRI), displaying country-level Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) indicators and risk drivers, and showcasing resilience deficits. These maps also present future projections of these deficits under different climate scenarios, incorporating IPCC greenhouse-gas-emission-rate scenarios and representative concentration pathways. Duration: 2023 Objectives The report serves as a comprehensive inter-agency effort to assess and address resilience gaps, aiding in informed decision-making for sustainable development. Collaborators GEM Foundation, United Nations Geospatial Information Section, Environmental Systems Research Institute - ESRI Funding partner: UNDRR Location Geneva, Swizterland Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects INDONESIA DRR Seismic Resilience Baseline Analysis and Investment Option Needs in Indonesia Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background This project, funded by the World Bank's GFDRR, aims to conduct a seismic baseline analysis to support the development of a potential national seismic risk mitigation program in Indonesia. The study focuses on public assets, which include education facilities (primary and secondary schools, universities), health facilities (health clinics, hospitals), commercial facilities (shophouse), emergency services facilities (e.g., ambulance stations, fire stations, early warning service providers), and critical government administration buildings (e.g., local disaster management offices). The project has five main tasks: 1. Inception: literature review on seismic risk in Indonesia, methodology, definition of stakeholder/consultation workshops, preliminary data collection 2. Baseline analysis of Indonesia’s exposure and vulnerabilities to seismic hazards (earthquakes and tsunami) 3. Seismic Risk Assessment and Rapid Prioritization of Potential Investments in Three Selected Districts 4. Development of Baseline Data and Conceptual Framework Design 5. Final Report and Completion Report The GEM Risk Team contributes to all tasks, ranging from support on hazard modelling, development of exposure, selection of vulnerbaility models and the computation of seismic risk using the OpenQuake engine. Duration: 2022-2023 Objectives The methodology, workplan, programme and potential target cities is elaborated together with the World Bank and Indonesian Ministry of Public Works and Housing (MPWH) stakeholders and other relevant agencies such as Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas), National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB), Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA) and Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG). The objectives include: (a) a rapid baseline analysis of the exposure and vulnerability of the country and three Indonesian districts to earthquakes and tsunami, baseline information/data, and gap analysis, including disaggregated analysis of risk and vulnerability of women and other vulnerable groups; (b) a conceptual framework for improving seismic resilience and recommendations for a national program that aims to reduce the vulnerability of people (with consideration for diverse groups) and assets to earthquakes and tsunami through an integrated package of structural and non-structural investments; and (c) stakeholder consultations to seek inputs on the potential program design, investment funding mechanisms, and institutional set-up options for the national program. Collaborators GEM Foundation, Arup, LAPI-ITB and Kota Kita Funding partner: World Bank GFDRR Locations Three cities in Indonesia: ‣ Kota Bengkulu, Bengkulu province ‣ Kota Cilegon, Banten province ‣ Kota Gorontalo, Gorontalo province Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects BEYOND BUTTON PUSHING Earthquake Risk Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis for California Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The goal of the project was to show how important the quantification of uncertainty is in estimating and understanding California’s earthquake risk using OpenQuake - GEM Foundation’s state-of-the-art open source earthquake hazard and risk assessment software. With OpenQuake’s plug-and-play capabilities, expert users can individually select or substitute every model component, data, and assumption. This feature will help model users and decision makers to: 1) ‘ask the right questions’ when evaluating model results; 2) better interpret risk assessment results and gain trust in model results; and 3) make better risk management decisions. Duration: 2015-2017 Objectives The main objectives of this project are to: Establish representative sets of exposure: ‣ for the San Francisco Bay Area; ‣ for the Southern California region affected by the Shakeout Scenario Choose specific results (risk metrics) to use as a basis for comparison. Produce ‘baseline’ results from OpenQuake, using a ‘control’ set of assumptions. Undertake a thorough sensitivity analysis for the risk estimates for California based on the UCERF3 model by running OpenQuake multiple times, each time varying one assumption or parameter, such as: ‣ earthquake probabilities (controlled by assumptions about fault geometries, slip rates, maximum magnitudes); ‣ ground motion model selection; ‣ vulnerability functions; ‣ site conditions; and ‣ statistical treatment of uncertainty and correlation Beyond the aims stated at the outset of the project as listed above, several additional objectives were achieved during the course of the project, including the following: Implement within OpenQuake the latest seismic hazard model for California based on the recently published Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF3), produced by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. Calculate the average annual loss estimates for all 8,057 census tracts in California, using the seismic hazard model based on UCERF3. Establish the range (distribution) of scientifically viable results for the chosen risk metrics by accounting for the various uncertainties in the hazard model. Identify the components of the hazard model contributing most to the overall uncertainty in the risk metrics for the different exposure portfolios. Implement a model simplification (‘logic-tree trimming’) software tool to reduce the number of computer runs and greatly speed up the time required for running the risk model for California. Collaborators GEM Foundation Funding partner: Alfred E. Alquist Seismic Safety Commission (SSC) Location California, United States Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications