Projects CAREC Phase II CAREC Phase II: Developing a Disaster and Climate Risk Transfer Facility in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Updates Anchor 6 Overview This project builds upon the modelling and analytical work conducted under TA-9878 ( https://www.globalquakemodel.org/proj/carec ) and involves the preparation and implementation of a pilot disaster relief bond (DRB) that will be issued by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for two countries, namely, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. The pilot DRB will complement existing climate and disaster risk financing tools and will be structured to encourage the adoption of risk-reduction and climate-adaptation actions. It will also direct relief assistance to the most vulnerable groups, including women and small and medium-sized enterprises, through pre-agreed response plans developed with the pilot countries. GEM's contribution to the project includes: Build upon the work conducted under TA-9878, review modeling to ensure that it is up-to-date and aligned with the pilot countries’ and investors’ expectations Update exposure data for the two pilot countries based on updated housing and socio-economic data Update seismic hazard and risk modelling for the two pilot countries to serve as the basis for the DRB structuring and placement Undertake historical events analysis for the two pilot countries, considering all potentially damaging events since 1907 Provide earthquake model outputs required to determine the trigger form, level of coverage, and size and positioning of the DRB (when the policy attaches, detaches and how much it pays), in close consultation with WTW, Munich Re, Verisk, ADB, and the pilot countries Update the earthquake data underlying the user-friendly graphic interface developed in the previous CAREC project for the two pilot countries, to help illustrate modeling results and cost-benefits of the risk transfer options as well as disaster risk reduction measures, allowing capacity building, facilitating consultation workshops and supporting the decision process Support the preparation of knowledge products on earthquake risk modeling and financing Duration: 2025-2026 Objectives Key objectives involved: Review existing risk modelling for earthquakes in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, and update and perform more detailed and granular risk modeling, as required; Conduct dynamic risk analysis to estimate capital requirements, reinsurance options, and the impacts of various historical or possible future scenarios on the facility’s operations; Support capacity building workshops to enhance countries’ understanding of disaster risk, including insurance solutions, and the process required for making informed disaster risk financing decisions; and Provide modeling outputs through a transparent and user-friendly interface/tool to inform the terms and design of the facility’s initial product offering, ensuring that is both relevant to the countries and financially sustainable over the longer term. Collaborators Collaborators: Willis Towers Watson (WTW), GEM Foundation, Munich Re, Verisk Funding partner: Asian Development Bank (ADB) Location Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Project Data Sheet Asian Development Bank (ADB) project materials - overview, project details, documents. New ADB Program to Help Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan Respond to Disasters The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $56.4 million program to help the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan boost their capacity to respond to disasters. Both countries are vulnerable to disasters, such as earthquakes and floods, but lack the fiscal capacity and risk transfer mechanisms to effectively respond to hazards. The Risk-Layered Disaster Relief Finance Program will enhance their financial preparedness through a combination of two pre-arranged ADB financing instruments targeting different layers of disaster risks. Anchor3 Publications

Projects CCARA Caribbean and Central America Earthquake Risk Assessment (CCARA) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Background Earthquake risk is on the rise and earthquakes are expected to take an increasing number of lives. Hazard and risk assessments are the foundation for raising awareness among policy makers and the general public, forming the basis for decisions and actions that effectively build resilience and can reduce risk. While important work has been carried out in the Central American and Caribbean region to understand earthquake risk assessment and management there is still ample room to enhance that understanding and properly introduce it in decision- and policy-making processes. In many areas of the world, state-of-the-art information and tools to assess earthquake risk have been inaccessible for a long time. As a first step to tackle this problem, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has been created and spent the past 11 years collaboratively advancing open source science and technology for global state-of-the-art seismic hazard and risk modeling, data collection, and risk assessment at scales from local to national, regional, and global. Objectives The project aims to calculate hazard and risk, and to estimate the compounding social and economic factors that increase the physical damage and decrease the post-event capacities of populations to respond to and recover from damaging earthquake events in The Caribbean and Central America, by involving local experts from throughout the region. The goal of the Program in Central America and the Caribbean is to develop capacity in the region for earthquake risk assessment by leveraging GEM tools and resources, to enhance the understanding of earthquake risk, and to bridge the gap between risk assessment and disaster risk reduction. To improve the understanding of earthquake risk in the Central America and Caribbean region while developing local capacities to use open source resources for producing earthquake hazard and risk information at regional, national and local scales. To engage with decision-makers and other end-users to make the connection between advanced risk assessment by local experts and risk-reducing action and so influence DRR policy. Collaborators The CCARA project would not have been possible without the contributions of all the municipalities in particular: the Municipality of San José (Costa Rica), National Commission of Emergencies (CNE), University of Costa Rica (UCR) - Laboratorio Nacional de Materiales y Estructuras (LANAMME), INETER, ONESVIE, ODPEM, BRGM, Bureau des Mines, VT, Geologica UPR Mayaquez, UNI, SRC and UMG. Location Caribbean and Central America countries Website Caribbean and Central America Earthquake Risk Assessment (CCARA) wiki site contains an overview of the project. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 The CCARA project hosted four participants from South America to introduce seismic hazard and risk assessment using tools developed by GEM – specifically the OpenQuake engine. Anchor 4 Modelling subduction earthquakes: GEM experiences in Latin America CCARA project GEM presents the results of the USAID-funded CCARA Project in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic A hazard workshop in San José, Costa Rica from September 18th to 22nd as part of the risk assessment activities of the CCARA project. Anchor3 Publications CCAF-DB: The Caribbean and Central American Active Fault Database Disclaimer The contents of this project website such as studies, reports, audio-visual, news articles, blogs, and other information or media products including those in the external links are made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

Projects AZERBAIJAN DRR Risk modeling and scenario analysis for Azerbaijan - Seismic risk analysis Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background One of the analyses to be conducted under the World Bank Groups' Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs), is to look at the fiscal and economic impacts of disasters in Azerbaijan, including the size of the macro-fiscal risk posed by earthquakes, floods, and droughts, and identify potential opportunities to increase financial resilience. For the risk modeling and scenario analysis for Azerbaijan, the GEM Risk Team further expands the Azerbaijan model in GEM's Global Seismic Risk Model, by projecting the exposure and risk to 2050 by taking into account the evolving demographics and socio-economic conditions in Azerbaijan. Duration: 2022 Objectives The World Bank is preparing the Country Climate and Development Report for Azerbaijan. The CCDR aims to inform policy dialogue and engagement with the Government of Azerbaijan. This provides an opportunity to carry out several analytical pieces, including in the area of Disaster Risk Management, bringing together existing knowledge on the economic and social impacts of disasters and climate change, and delivering new analytical insights to support policy recommendations. Collaborators GEM Foundation Funding partner: World Bank Group Location Azerbaijan Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects SARA Project South American Risk Assessment (SARA) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Overview South America incorporates some of the most seismically active regions on the planet, where the South American subduction zone generates the forces to create the Andes Mountains and drives the occurrence of destructive earthquakes across Chile, western Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela. In turn, the high vulnerability of many structures and the high population density of the main cities are factors that contribute to the region’s high seismic risk. In the last two decades alone, over 3,000 fatalities have been reported, and the economic losses have exceeded 30 billion USD (EM-DAT, www.emdat.be ). While expert capabilities exist in these countries to assess earthquake risk, the information, infrastructure, tools, and collaboration networks necessary to develop comprehensive knowledge among scientists and engineers and to move this knowledge into the mainstream of disaster risk reduction activities has been lacking. Objectives The approach is to bring together international best practice tools and methodologies with local expertise and knowledge needed to establish local ownership and define risk assessment objectives and priorities. GEM Foundation combined these elements and focused on developing local capacities across sectors (academic, public and private), across technical disciplines (e.g., hazard, risk, IT), and through the implementation of disaster risk reduction policies and programs. The program of capacity development was initiated in 2013 with the South America Risk Assessment (SARA) Project to bring experts, institutions, and stakeholders from 7 countries to develop a regional assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. GEM provided its OpenQuake earthquake hazard and risk analysis software and other tools and databases freely and openly to all participants. More than 50 of the region’s experts across 17 institutions collaborated to produce critical data sets, develop common approaches, and develop open-source tools for both data collection and interpretation. Collaborators The SARA Project, completed in December 2015, provided the foundation for formal and informal collaborations at many levels and for many purposes. GEM subsequently developed formal partnerships across public and private sectors (e.g., SuraAmerica Insurance, the Geological Survey of Colombia, EcoPetrol), academic partnerships (e.g., EAFIT Univ, Univ del Norte, Univ Catolica Chile), non-profits (e.g., OSSO), and most recently, with municipal governments (Cali, Colombia and Quito, Ecuador), for urban risk assessments. (complete list ) Location Andean Region (Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Chile and Argentina) Introduction The project was carried out by experts and institutions from the region using to the extent possible open data sets, methodologies and tools such as GEM’s new open source software, the OpenQuake Engine and other OpenQuake tools. The project revolved around 5 modules: hazard, exposure and physical vulnerability, socio-economic vulnerability and resilience, loss estimates and city scenarios. The modules were carried out by a variety of experts/scientists from the region , in collaboration with the project coordinators and, where relevant, the GEM Secretariat. 1. Seismic hazard In early 2013 the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) published seven Requests for Proposal covering topics related to the compilation of basic datasets as well as the creation and calculation of an updated probabilistic seismic hazard input model for South America. Five consortia of South American researchers responded to this request and submitted proposals, which were reviewed in an initial stage by scientists working at the GEM Secretariat, and successively discussed in a meeting in Bogota held in December 2013 at the “Servicio Geologico Colombiano”. 2. Exposure and Physical Vulnerability Development of exposure datasets and vulnerability functions for South America at regional, national and/or sub-national levels have been considered. Modelling of exposure and physical vulnerability in the most earthquake prone countries is the main goal in the first stage of the project. 3. Social Vulnerability and Resilience The social vulnerability component of SARA comprises the development of composite indicators of social vulnerability and resilience along with their robustness testing and validation. The objective is to provide tools and information useful for understanding the potential effects of earthquakes in communities of South America. 4. National and subnational estimation of losses An open and transparent seismic risk assessment for the Andean countries has been performed. A probabilistic approach was followed for the calculation of risk metrics, that includes average annual economic and human loss maps, mean loss exceedance curves per country, and statistics that reveal which building classes are most vulnerable to earthquakes. 5. City Scenarios Following the objectives of SARA, the development of city scenarios is crucial for planning risk management strategies in cities with larger concentration of population and exposed to significant hazard. In this sense, the GEM Secretariat has been seeking collaborations with research groups and governmental stakeholders that will be the end users of case studies in Lima (Peru), Quito (Ecuador), Medellín (Colombia), Iquique, Osorno and Rancagua (Chile). Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Capacity development and institutional strengthening To promote sustainability, SARA’s work included the following: capacity development and institutional strengthening, and stakeholder engagement. The outcomes of activities in these areas are described below. Anchor 4 A blog by Carlos Costa featuring the SARA project workshop in Chile 2014. [News ] A wiki project website containing technical information about the SARA project. [Website ] Anchor3 BUSINESS NEWS Quito workshops 2015 1/3 BUSINESS NEWS Lima workshops 2015 1/2 Publications SARA Project Executive Summary [PDF ] Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment Of The Residential Building Stock In South America [PDF ] A conference paper on Building A Ground-Motion Logic Tree For South America Within The Gem-Sara Project Framework [PDF ] SARA (South America Risk Assessment Project Workshop) on “Inventory of Quaternary deformation of South America” [PDF ]

Projects CAYMAN ISLANDS PSHA Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Cayman Islands Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background Thr project aims to perform a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Cayman Islands, and provide the seismic input necessary for the International Building Code (IBC). The GEM Hazard Team is responsible for the seismotectonic and geodynamic characterisation of the study area, the definition of distributed seismicity and fault sources, and the modelling of the epistemic uncertainties. Duration: 2020 Objectives The main objective is to provide input to the 2016 Cayman Islands Building Code, to support engineers in the seismic design and assessment of structures. Collaborators GEM Foundation, EUCENTRE Foundation Funding partner: Cayman Islands Government Location Cayman Islands Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects EPOS ON European Plate Observing System-Optimisation and EvolutioN (EPOS ON) Project Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Background Anchor 6 Background The European Plate Observing System-Optimisation and EvolutioN (EPOS ON) project, a collaborative initiative involving a consortium of 34 partners across 18 countries aims to support the optimisation and evolution of the EPOS Research Infrastructure (EPOS RI) by enhancing the interoperability, accessibility, and integration of various datasets for effective risk management and resilience against natural hazards. The project is led and coordinated by EPOS ERIC with funding support from the European Union (EU) under the Horizon Europe program, and will be implemented across various geographic locations within Europe and may extend its partnerships to other regions globally. Duration: September 1, 2024 to August 31, 2024 More details: https://www.epos-eu.org/on . Expected Key Outputs GEM work packages (WP) include scientific products that support risk management: WP3 Contribution to Tackle Societal Challenges - Enhancement of existing EPOS services for improved risk management for natural hazards, supported by dialogue with the EU Union Civil Protection Knowledge Network (UCPKN). Data products and services for rapid post-event assessment: this includes the improvement of existing tools (e.g., European ShakeMap service) for rapid post-event assessment of earthquake impacts and associated secondary hazards (e.g. liquefaction), tools to predict population dynamics in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, and databases of damage-dependent seismic vulnerability models for European buildings. WP5 Enlarging European and International Collaborations - Establishment of collaborative partnerships with relevant research infrastructures to promote synergies and expand global access to EPOS services and data. Support for the expansion of the existing European seismic risk services to include maps representing the environmental impact associated with earthquakes in terms of equivalent carbon dioxide (eCO2) emissions arising from damage and subsequent repair activities. Collaborators EPOS ON includes 34 partners from 18 countries, which represent not only research and academy, but also private sector companies and new communities. Funding partner: EPOS ON is funded by the EC Horizon Europe programme under G.A. n 101131592 Location Europe Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects FORCE Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Profile Outcomes Training Schedule Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Overview This project, supported by USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA), aims to enhance earthquake hazard modeling capabilities in small communities, as well as to provide better risk models to account for changes in the number of occupants, structures and economic value exposed to earthquakes and the adverse effects of climate change. The project will evaluate future earthquake risk losses, thus supporting decision makers with risk metrics that account for the expected evolution of the built environment, which are fundamental for the design and implementation of long-term risk reduction measures. Objectives The project aims to strengthen the capacities and understanding to manage and respond to future earthquake risk by: introducing future growth or change into national and global exposure models to enable the quantification of future disaster losses, including those associated with climate change; developing communication and dissemination tools to maximize the uptake of disaster risk information in policy making bodies; and improving the reliability of earthquake hazard and risk assessment, in particular in regions that lack information. To achieve the above, the project will implement five components below: Predicting the evolution of the built environment and population Forecasting future disaster risk due to earthquakes Incorporating infrastructure in exposure modeling for risk assessment Modeling earthquake hazard and risk for small communities Advancing communication and dissemination of risk information Collaborators Funding partner: USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) El Salvador: Science partner: University of El Salvador (contact Manual Menjivar, associate Professor). Government partner: Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, MARN (contacts Douglas Antonio Hernández, Geology Area Coordinator, and Luis Mixco, seismologist). Nepal: Science partner: National Society for Earthquake Technology, NSET (contact Surya Narayan Shrestha, Executive Director). Government partner: National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA). Bhutan: Science partner: College of Science and Technology-Royal University of Bhutan (contact Chimi Wangmo, Head of Department, Civil Engineering DepartmentCheki Dorji). Pacific partners: Secretariat of Pacific Community (SPC), Geoscience, Energy and Maritime Division (contact Litea Biukoto, Geohazards Risk Management Leader) Indian Ocean partner: The Indian Ocean Commission IOC, (contact Gina Bonne, Director) Government partners: Member states and territories of the SPC and IOC through their representatives. Additionally, collaboration is expected from GEM partners Geoscience Australia (GA) and Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS), New Zealand, considering their active role in the region. Location Bhutan, El Salvador, Nepal, and small communities in oceans Seismic Risk Forecasting for a Safer El Salvador The FORCE project assesses El Salvador’s seismic risk today and projects future impacts over the next 30 years under two scenarios: continuing current construction practices or fully adopting modern seismic codes. The findings highlight the urgent need for stronger building regulations to reduce economic and human losses. View summary of results | Download 1. Historical Earthquakes and Their Destructive Potential El Salvador has experienced numerous significant earthquakes, each shaping the country’s approach to disaster preparedness. This dashboard provides a comprehensive analysis of historical seismic events, highlighting their destructive potential and reinforcing the need for proactive risk management to reduce future impacts. Eventos_históricos_potencial_destructivo_Dashboard_Luis_Mixco_PPT View details | Download 2. Seismic Codes and Future Risk Scenarios What role do building regulations play in disaster risk reduction? This study examines the impact of seismic codes on El Salvador’s future risk landscape. By comparing scenarios with and without strengthened regulations, the findings emphasize how improved construction practices can significantly reduce losses and enhance community resilience. Codigo-Riesgo_Futuro View details | Download 3. Forecasting Seismic Risk in El Salvador How will seismic risk evolve in the next 30 years? This risk forecast presents two possible futures - one where risk remains high due to unregulated construction and another where proactive policies and seismic codes reduce vulnerabilities. The results underscore the importance of long-term planning for disaster resilience. Pronostico_Riesgo View details | Download Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Online and Onsite Training Workshops This part of the program is designed to improve the understanding and awareness of earthquake hazards and risks and to help bridge the gap between the information produced in the project sites and its communication to a wide variety of stakeholders through online and onsite training workshops. Under the FORCE project, Spring and Autumn OpenQuake training courses will be offered. Please check back regularly for the latest training activities. Modules covered by the OpenQuake Online Training Courses The online training Modules 2-4, discuss how to explore and prepare the required input files for earthquake scenarios, PSHA (such as hazard maps for different return periods, hazard curves, and uniform hazard spectra), and event-based risk analysis in the OpenQuake-engine, how to run an example and visualise the results. Module 1 OQ Introduction is a self-learning module available at training.openquake.org . OpenQuake Online Training Language: Spanish Upcoming session dates Module II (part 1) February 6, 2024 Module II (part 2) February 20, 2024 Module III February 13, 2024 Module IV February 27, 2024 ----- OpenQuake Training: an online course for beginners Language: English Completed session dates March 20, 2023 March 27, 2023 April 17, 2023 April 24, 2023 ----- Anchor 4 Advancing communication and dissemination of risk information The activities in this component are focused on raising awareness of the public on earthquake hazard and risk by training a diverse group of disaster risk reduction (DRR) professionals together with personnel in charge of communicating risk to the public, and by conducting community-based workshops in the pilot countries. Luis Mixco and GEM’s Cata Yepes Featured on El Salvador’s National News El Salvador’s Ministry of Environment has launched a new tool designed to quickly estimate earthquake damage, enabling a faster response to affected communities. Watch as Luis Mixco, Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources of El Salvador, and GEM’s Cata Yepes discuss this important development in a national news segment. https://youtu.be/MfGn347363c?si=WrpbeeVkjsVFrnZ3 Strengthening Pacific Resilience: Highlights from the Workshop GEM concluded a successful two-day training workshop in Suva, Fiji, as part of the FORCE project. Held on November 18-19, the workshop focused on understanding earthquake hazard and risk in the Southwest Pacific - a region highly vulnerable to seismic activity. Facilitated by GEM’s Catalina Yepes Estrada, Exposure Development Lead, and Kendra Johnson, Senior Seismic Hazard Scientist, the training brought together local stakeholders and experts to explore practical approaches to earthquake risk assessment and disaster preparedness. Participants engaged in hands-on exercises using GEM’s OpenQuake engine, explored probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis, and discussed ways to improve resilience through better data and modeling. A key takeaway was the importance of tailoring risk models to local needs, with opportunities for participants to share insights on addressing data and resource challenges unique to the Pacific region. The workshop was held alongside the STAR Conference, where GEM also presented on leveraging hazard and risk models for sustainable development and disaster risk reduction. A big thank you to all participants for their active engagement and to our partners - the Mineral Resources Department (MRD) in Fiji, the Pacific Community (SPC), UNESCO, and the USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance, GEM's funding partner for the FORCE project - for their collaboration in making this event possible. These shared efforts are crucial as we work toward a safer and more resilient future for communities in the Pacific. Read more PSHA for the Oceans Webinar In this webinar, we explored the key features of the Global Seismic Hazard Mosaic and the PAC model, with a special focus on the ocean models in the Southwest Pacific. We presented GEM’s approach to building PSHA models that span vast regions, even in data-scarce areas. Additionally, we highlighted seismic hazard trends across the region, including insights for key population centers. The recording and presentation are now available and can be accessed here: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gemevents/psha-oceans-force-project Read more FORCE project: Groundwork activities gain strong support from local and national stakeholders in Nepal GEM’s USAID-supported Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE) project kicked off in Kathmandu, Nepal from February 20th to 24th by meeting local and national partners involved in disaster risk reduction activities in the country. A half-day introductory workshop for key project stakeholders on February 24th capped the groundwork activities. (report with detailed information ) Read more Strengthening Bhutan's Resilience: GEM's Collaborative Efforts in Seismic Risk Reduction Thimphu, Bhutan - March 15, 2024. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation's USAID-supported project, Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE), recently concluded a successful week of activities in Bhutan (March 11-15, 2024). Led by GEM's Alejandro Calderon and Catarina Costa, the project focuses on strengthening local capacities and improving earthquake risk reduction in the country (report with detailed information ). Read more A Resilient Future: Embracing Innovation and Leveraging Local Expertise and Collaboration to Enhance Seismic Risk Reduction in El Salvador The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation's USAID-supported project, Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE), has been working to help strengthen local capacities and improve earthquake risk reduction in El Salvador. The project has conducted two visits to the country, bringing together government agencies, scientists, engineers, and other stakeholders to discuss seismic hazard assessment, risk analysis, and communication strategies (report with detailed information ). Read more - English | Spanish FORCE Project Update: Predicting Urban Growth and Population Evolution One critical component of this project involves predicting urban growth and population evolution. This involves analysing more than 20 potential drivers of urban development over several decades. These encompass factors such as demographic trends, economic metrics, and land-use patterns. The FORCE team is actively developing urban growth models utilising techniques like regression analysis and machine learning. Currently, these models are undergoing meticulous evaluation to ensure their ability to replicate observed increases in dwelling numbers and construction areas. Read more Earthquakes in El Salvador: What Do We Know and How Could They Affect Us in the Coming Years? GEM's FORCE project made notable developments in #ElSalvador last week. Various meetings and technical activities were conducted highlighted by a workshop that convened stakeholders to discuss the topic "#Earthquakes in El Salvador: What Do We Know and How Could They Affect Us in the Coming Years?" In collaboration with the USAID - Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/BHA), and national partners Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales de El Salvador (MARN) and Dirección General de Protección Civil de El Salvador, this session marked a crucial step in advancing #seismic #risk #understanding and response capabilities. Thanks to all for the productive discussions and active participation! FORCE Project Updates: City Zonation workshops Our sessions with USAID focused on city zonation for #emergencyresponse in #Medellin, followed by a workshop communicating #seismic #risk to first responders in our ongoing collaboration with Universidad EAFIT, #SIATA - Sistema de Alerta Temprana del Valle de Aburrá, and #AMVA - Área Metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá. These initiatives are fundamental in enhancing emergency preparedness efforts. #EmergencyPreparedness #SeismicRiskCommunication SATIC Event, OpenQuake Conference, Cali Risk Assessment and Community Awareness Workshops An event was held at the Banco de la República Auditorium in Cali, Colombia from November 21-25 to present seismic scenarios for Cali using Cali risk models; introduction of OpenQuake Tools; and training workshop for the use of the information repository and risk models, including awareness workshops for the community (local trainers, firefighters, civil defense). Read more Workshop on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA), Risk Analysis, and the OpenQuakeEngine at FEPADE in El Salvador The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) of #ElSalvador and the GEM Foundation successfully concluded a workshop on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (#PSHA), #Risk #Analysis, and the #OpenQuakeEngine at FEPADE in El Salvador, as part of the USAID - Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance-supported #FORCE #Project. This workshop substantially contributes to building local expertise in this crucial pilot project area, reinforcing El Salvador's #earthquake #resilience. We extend heartfelt thanks to our dedicated #local #partners for their invaluable contributions, pivotal in ensuring the success of this event! Read more Online session on seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Pacific Our FORCE project team successfully concluded an online session on seismic hazard and risk assessment in the #Pacific. With participation from 15 attendees representing 7 countries, the session explored Session 1 - Seismic #hazard and #risk information available in the Global Mosaic. Attendees were informed of various #earthquake #hazard and #risk outputs within the GEM Foundation, such as hazard maps, hazard curves, uniform hazard spectra, #exposure models, #vulnerability and #fragility models, and risk metrics. Discussions also focused on what information is included in GEM’s Country Seismic Risk Profiles. These insights underscored the significance of #seismic #assessment in the region. Stay tuned for updates on future sessions! #FORCEProject #SeismicAssessment #GEMFoundation New GEM-USAID Project Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE) launched On the heels of the successful completion of the TREQ project partnership this year, GEM and USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) are embarking on a new project called Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk or FORCE. The project aims to strengthen the capacities and understanding to manage and respond to future earthquake risk. Read more Anchor3 BUSINESS NEWS Workshop summarising the USAID-supported initiative in El Salvador led by GEM’s local partners, January 21-24, 2025 The activities focused on sharing and communicating the project's outcomes, including updated earthquake hazard and risk models, impact metrics, and capacity-building activities. GEM's Alejandro Calderon and Catalina Yepes-Estrada joined as participants to share insights on project outcomes, tools, and lessons learned with stakeholders. 1/4 BUSINESS NEWS Strengthening Pacific Resilience: Highlights from the Workshop - November 18-19, 2024, Suva, Fiji GEM concluded a successful two-day training workshop in Suva, Fiji, as part of the FORCE project. Held on November 18-19, the workshop focused on understanding earthquake hazard and risk in the Southwest Pacific - a region highly vulnerable to seismic activity. 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS Activities in Bhutan (March 11-15, 2024) A series of technical meetings and workshops on the FORCE project in Bhutan was held from the 11th to the 15th of March 2024. 1/3 BUSINESS NEWS El Salvador Stakeholder Workshop January 11, 2024 Earthquakes in El Salvador: What Do We Know and How Could They Affect Us in the Coming Years? 1/8 BUSINESS NEWS El Salvador Meetings January 9, 2024 Meetings with the Protección Civil de El Salvador. 1/3 BUSINESS NEWS Medellin Workshops December 2023 with AMVA Workshops on city zonation for #emergencyresponse in #Medellin , followed by a workshop communicating #seismic #risk to first responders in our ongoing collaboration with Universidad EAFIT , #SIATA - Sistema de Alerta Temprana del valle de Aburrá, and #AMVA - Área Metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá. 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS El Salvador November 2023 Workshop Introduction to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard (PSHA) and Risk Analysis and the OpenQuake Engine with MARN hosted by the Fundación Empresarial para el Desarrollo Educativo (FEPADE) November 6-10, 2023. 1/5 BUSINESS NEWS SATIC event in Cali, Colombia Nov 21-25, 2022 1/6 BUSINESS NEWS Kick-off meetings in Nepal The launch meetings of the FORCE project – Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk were held in the city of Kathmandu, Nepal, from 20th to 24th February 2023. 1/11 Publications Similar to the TREQ project, reports and publications relevant to each of the FORCE project components will be produced and published in due course. This page is dedicated to this purpose. Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Risk - Bhutan Technical Visits in Bhutan A series of technical meetings and workshops of the FORCE project – Forecasting and Communication Earthquake Risk – were held in Bhutan from the 11th to the 15th of March 2024. One-to-one meetings were organised with the main governmental departments involved in Disaster Risk Reduction activities in the country, along with a workshop held in Thimphu on 12th March 2024, that included an important group of stakeholders. Moreover, a presentation to students and college staff from the Royal University of Bhutan in Phuentsholing was held on the 14th of March 2024. Representatives of the GEM Foundation and the College of Science and Technology (CST) from the Royal University of Bhutan (RUB) attended all meetings and were the coordinators of the visit activities in the country. Pronostico y Comunicacion de Riesgos por Terremotos Visitas técnicas en El Salvador EL proyecto FORCE: Pronóstico y comunicación de la amenaza y el riesgo de terremotos (Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk por sus siglas en inglés), realizó dos visitas a El Salvador con el objetivo de fortalecer las capacidades locales y la comunicación de los resultados de riesgo sísmico a las diferentes entidades que forman parte de la prevención, gestión y respuesta ante terremotos destructivos en el país. De la mano del Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (MARN) se realizaron talleres y reuniones con diferentes actores del sector público como Protección Civil, Ministerio de Obras Públicas, Fondo de Conservación Vial de El Salvador, Cuerpo de Bomberos, Ministerio de Educación, Instituto Salvadoreño del Seguro Social, Oficina de Planificación del Área Metropolitana de San Salvador (OPAMSS), entre otros. Kick-off meetings in Nepal FORCE Project The launch meetings of the FORCE project – Forecasting and Communication Earthquake Risk were held in Kathmandu, Nepal, from 20th to 24th February 2023. Multiple one-to-one meetings were held with the main governmental departments involved in Disaster Risk Reduction activities, and a workshop with an important group of stakeholders was held on 24th February 2023. Representatives of the GEM Foundation and NSET attended all meetings and will be the coordinators of the project activities in the country. Disclaimer The contents of this project website such as studies, reports, audio-visual, news articles, blogs, and other information or media products including those in the external links are made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

Projects READY2RESPOND Rapid Diagnostic in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background Ready2Respond (R2R) is a rapid diagnostic guide, designed to improve national, sub-national and city resilience mechanisms and to protect development gains through investments in emergency preparedness and response systems. It is informed by the World Bank Group (WBG) City Resilience Program (CRP) and other WBG resilience platforms. In this project R2R is applied to the Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh states in the Himalayan region of India. The GEM Risk Team contributes to the project by providing: Literature review and stakeholder mapping around hazard and risk initiatives, risk data and models for both states Provision of seismic hazard/risk model outputs and related descriptive information for both states (to support diagnostic activities) Review of legal regulation of the built environment and associated initiatives Review of seismic preparedness of the critical infrastructure defined in the project Preparation and remote input into stakeholder workshops Duration: 2023 Objectives This project responds to the need to provide effective and comprehensive diagnosis of the Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh states’ emergency preparedness and response systems in the Himalayan region of India. This enables the World Bank and the government to tailor investments to strengthen institutional capacity and capability, ensure public safety, and limit economic disruption in the face of multiple, and often cascading, geological and hydrometeorological hazards. Collaborators GEM Foundation, JBA Consulting, Geo Climate Risk Solutions (GCRS) Funding partner: World Bank Group Location India Himalayas Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects HORUS Horus: Pilot for a generic damage evaluation methodology based on remote-sensing data Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background Horus is a pilot project that explores the combination of high-resolution building inventory data from OpenStreetMap and other local sources with image-processing algorithms for the detection of earthquake damage and flood extents using remote-sensing data, along with supplementary geospatial datasets as inputs to a machine learning (ML) classification model. The ML model is trained using detailed building damage datasets from past events in a supervised learning framework, and the trained model is intended to be used to estimate the extent of damage and loss in events previously unseen by the model. The proposed framework is applied in three case study applications: March 2020 Mw5.3 Zagreb earthquake; January 2020 Mw6.4 Puerto Rico earthquake and August 2016 Louisiana floods. The GEM Risk Team is responsible for the overall coordination of the project involving multiple partners, compilation of building-level earthquake damage datasets, development of the ML models, and training and testing of the models. Duration: 2020 Objectives This pilot project, initiated and funded by the World Bank, aims to develop a framework for semi-automated damage and loss assessment due to earthquake and floods from Earth Observation (EO) data and other supplementary datasets, while also leveraging recent advances in machine-learning algorithms. These damage and loss estimates can potentially be used for transparent financial compensation and to target the distribution of resources geographically and temporally. Collaborators Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) team at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and California Institute of Technology (Caltech), the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, JBA Risk, and the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) Funding partner: World Bank Group Locations Earthquake case studies: Gorkha, Nepal; Puebla, Mexico; Puerto Rico, United States; Zagreb, Croatia Flood case study: Louisiana, United States Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects WFP-ADAM+ WFP-ADAM+ Innovation Accelerator Project Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The World Food Programme (WFP) Innovation Accelerator was established in 2016 to identify, support, and scale innovative solutions that contribute to ending global hunger by 2030. Based in Munich, Germany, the Accelerator provides funding, hands-on support, and access to WFP’s global operations and expert networks to empower WFP teams, entrepreneurs, start-ups, and NGOs worldwide. GEM participated in the Accelerator’s five-day bootcamp, held from November 27–29, 2023, where innovation and humanitarian experts collaborated with start-ups and WFP innovators to address field-level challenges, refine project strategies, and develop scalable solutions. Following this process, GEM successfully secured a place in the Accelerator’s Sprint Programme, a six-month initiative designed to advance innovations from proof of concept to prototype implementation. The bootcamp culminated in GEM’s participation in the WFP Accelerator Pitch Event in February 2024 in Munich, where GEM was selected as one of eight innovations to present its project to WFP senior management and potential funders. Duration: 2024 - 2025 Overall Objective The project aims to integrate GEM’s earthquake risk methodologies and datasets into humanitarian emergency preparedness and response efforts. By leveraging GEM’s expertise, the project seeks to enhance global access to reliable earthquake risk data and post-disaster impact assessments for humanitarian actors. This will be achieved by testing GEM’s models within WFP’s ADAM tool , ensuring they align with humanitarian needs in earthquake-prone regions. Expected Outputs 1. Improved Spatial Risk Assessment for Preparedness Development of high-resolution datasets on building exposure, population demographics (including gender and age groups), and vulnerability indicators. Validation of these datasets through ADAM-Preparedness to enhance the identification of at-risk communities. 2. Enhanced Post-Earthquake Impact Assessments Rapid estimation of affected populations within hours of an earthquake using USGS ground-shaking data integrated with GEM’s exposure and vulnerability layers. A refined impact assessment within 48 hours, leveraging GEM’s full modeling capabilities to estimate damaged buildings, displaced populations, homelessness, and fatalities for improved humanitarian response. Collaborators Coordination World Food Programme Project partner Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, Italy Funding partner: W orld Food Programme Innovation Accelerator Programme, Munich, Germany Locations Earthquake-prone WFP Countries with initial pilots in Afghanistan, Nepal, Turkey, Syria, Haiti, and the Philippines. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications