Projects MONGOLIA DRR Strengthening capacity on disaster risk assessment, reduction and transfer instruments in Mongolia Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background This project aims to support Mongolia in developing a set of key disaster risk information and knowledge products for mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management (DRM) into development, including Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance (DRFI). A hazard and risk assessment is conducted at the national and provincial levels and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is promoted for resilience within development and DRFI, and to strengthen the capacity and ability of NEMA, ministries, local government officials and communities to better understand and plan for disaster risks. The project is made up of the following four main components: Conducting multi-hazard disaster risk assessments at the national and local levels; Facilitation of Disaster Reduction planning and mainstreaming through the preparation and delivery of a DRR training program; Development of a strategy for disaster risk financing and revision of the national draft disaster risk insurance law; and Building institutional, technical, and management capacity for DRR and DRF The GEM Risk Team's main contribution to the project is the development of a significantly improved exposure model for Mongolia, based on the latest population and housing census of Mongolia, and a probabilistic seismic risk analyses, making use of GEM's global seismic hazard mosaic. Duration: 2022-2023 Objective The project is implemented in close collaboration with Mongolia’s National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and the Department of Disaster Risk Management (DRMD), who are the executing agency and the implementing agency respectively. The Ministry of Finance is also engaged in strengthening DRF and insurance options. This project advances Mongolia’s progress in addressing the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) priorities by improving the institutional capacities of key ministries and local governments; enhancing understanding of risk; strengthening disaster risk governance; and investing in DRR for resilience through promoting mechanisms for disaster risk transfer, risk-sharing, and insurance. Collaborators GEM Foundation, ICEM Asia Consulting, PwC India, Environ LLC, Willis Towers Watson (WTW), JBA Group, Overseas Development Institute Funding partner: Funded by the Japan Fund of Poverty and Reduction and administered by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Location Mongolia Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects CAREC Phase II CAREC Phase II: Developing a Disaster and Climate Risk Transfer Facility in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Updates Anchor 6 Overview This project builds upon the modelling and analytical work conducted under TA-9878 ( https://www.globalquakemodel.org/proj/carec ) and involves the preparation and implementation of a pilot disaster relief bond (DRB) that will be issued by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for two countries, namely, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. The pilot DRB will complement existing climate and disaster risk financing tools and will be structured to encourage the adoption of risk-reduction and climate-adaptation actions. It will also direct relief assistance to the most vulnerable groups, including women and small and medium-sized enterprises, through pre-agreed response plans developed with the pilot countries. GEM's contribution to the project includes: Build upon the work conducted under TA-9878, review modeling to ensure that it is up-to-date and aligned with the pilot countries’ and investors’ expectations Update exposure data for the two pilot countries based on updated housing and socio-economic data Update seismic hazard and risk modelling for the two pilot countries to serve as the basis for the DRB structuring and placement Undertake historical events analysis for the two pilot countries, considering all potentially damaging events since 1907 Provide earthquake model outputs required to determine the trigger form, level of coverage, and size and positioning of the DRB (when the policy attaches, detaches and how much it pays), in close consultation with WTW, Munich Re, Verisk, ADB, and the pilot countries Update the earthquake data underlying the user-friendly graphic interface developed in the previous CAREC project for the two pilot countries, to help illustrate modeling results and cost-benefits of the risk transfer options as well as disaster risk reduction measures, allowing capacity building, facilitating consultation workshops and supporting the decision process Support the preparation of knowledge products on earthquake risk modeling and financing Duration: 2025-2026 Objectives Key objectives involved: Review existing risk modelling for earthquakes in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, and update and perform more detailed and granular risk modeling, as required; Conduct dynamic risk analysis to estimate capital requirements, reinsurance options, and the impacts of various historical or possible future scenarios on the facility’s operations; Support capacity building workshops to enhance countries’ understanding of disaster risk, including insurance solutions, and the process required for making informed disaster risk financing decisions; and Provide modeling outputs through a transparent and user-friendly interface/tool to inform the terms and design of the facility’s initial product offering, ensuring that is both relevant to the countries and financially sustainable over the longer term. Collaborators Collaborators: Willis Towers Watson (WTW), GEM Foundation, Munich Re, Verisk Funding partner: Asian Development Bank (ADB) Location Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Project Data Sheet Asian Development Bank (ADB) project materials - overview, project details, documents. New ADB Program to Help Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan Respond to Disasters The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $56.4 million program to help the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan boost their capacity to respond to disasters. Both countries are vulnerable to disasters, such as earthquakes and floods, but lack the fiscal capacity and risk transfer mechanisms to effectively respond to hazards. The Risk-Layered Disaster Relief Finance Program will enhance their financial preparedness through a combination of two pre-arranged ADB financing instruments targeting different layers of disaster risks. Anchor3 Publications

Projects TREAD daTa and pRocesses in sEismic hAzarD Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background GEM is one of the partners of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) funded TREAD project, which involves a consortium of 14 academic institutions and 8 private partners of the highest scientific level from 7 European countries. TREAD will train a new generation of seismic hazard scientists to tackle the challenges of earthquake forecasting in complex tectonic contexts such as the Europe and Mediterranean regions. During the 4 year project GEM will host and supervise two PhD students, one working with the hazard team and the other with the risk team, on the following topics: 1. Modelling distributed seismicity under innovative approaches (under joint supervision with the University of Milano, Bicocca, 2. Assessment of the impact of advanced seismic hazard modelling approaches on earthquake risk (under joint supervision with the University of Chieti-Pescara) More information at https://tread-horizon.eu/ . Duration: 2023-2027 Objectives The aim of TREAD is to train a new generation of seismic hazard scientists to tackle the challenges of earthquake forecasting in complex tectonic contexts such as the Europe and Mediterranean regions. A change of paradigm in seismic hazard is necessary to be able to fully account for the specific properties of earthquake source and seismic modes in those areas. For example, to calculate the probability of having multiple earthquake ruptures, the interaction between active faults across various space-time scales needs to be accounted for, as well as the effects of stress transfer and fault-fluid interaction in earthquake triggering. TREAD objectives are: 1) Developing a novel integrative approach to seismic hazard analysis in Europe and the Mediterranean by bridging the gap from small-scale laboratory experiments to large-scale observations. 2) Establishing physics-based earthquake modelling by linking computational modelling of earthquakes from millions of years to fractions of a second. 3) Transferring earthquake geology and computational modelling to hazard and risk assessment adapted to the needs of government, industry and scientific stakeholders. Collaborators University of Chieti-Pescara, CNRS, University of Utrecht, GEM Foundation, University of Grenoble Alps, Ludwig Maximilians University, University of Barcelona, University of Padova, ETH Zurich, IRSN, OGS, INGV, Ruhr University Bochum, IPGP, Helmholz Centre, Willis, IFP, EDF, University of Milan Bicocca, Munich Re, TNO, Tre Altamira, University D'Aix Marseille Funding partner: Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA), European Commission Location Pavia, Italy Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects SERA Project Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research Infrastructure Alliance for Europe (SERA) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research Infrastructure Alliance for Europe (SERA) aims to reduce the risk posed by natural and anthropogenic earthquakes based on innovative research and development projects. SERA will significantly improve the access to data, services and research infrastructures for scientists and other professionals. GEM's contributions focus on taxonomy and exposure of residential, commercial and industrial buildings in Europe; physical vulnerability assessment for buildings; integrated earthquake risk analysis using the risk assessment framework and OpenQuake software established by the Global Earthquake Model. SERA is a Horizon 2020-supported programme responding to the priorities identified in the topic INFRAIA-01-2016-2017 ‘Integrating Activities for Advanced Communities’. SERA involves 31 partners and 8 linked third parties in Europe. It started in May 2017 and will last for three years. Objectives The EUCENTRE-SERA project is collaborating closely with the GEM Foundation (Global Earthquake Model) to: develop a European Risk Modelling framework that brings together the strengths of previous projects such as SHARE, NERA and fills in the research gaps; integrate knowledge and data from other SERA working packages; and build on the risk assessment framework and software developed by GEM. SERA is engaging 31 partners from 16 European countries. They all have leading expertise in the operation of experimental facilities, monitoring infrastructures, and data repositories in the fields of seismology, anthropogenic hazards or earthquake engineering. (complete list ) Location Europe Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 EM-SERA OpenQuake Training in Istanbul, Turkey SERA European Building Exposure Workshop: From European Hazard to Risk Anchor3 Publications

Projects NEAM-COMMITMENT North-Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Tsunami Risk Management and Planning Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background NEAM-COMMITMENT aims to improve tsunami risk management and planning in the NEAM region. It endeavors to contribute primarily to two key components of tsunami risk governance: capacity building through tsunami hazard assessment and mapping at the national scale, and improved tsunami evacuation planning at the local level through a novel multi-hazard approach. Guidelines will be drafted for the methodologies applied to develop the national tsunami inundation and local tsunami evacuation maps to contribute to improved tsunami risk management planning. Duration: 2025 - 2027 More details: https://civil-protection-knowledge-network.europa.eu/projects/neam-commitment#inpage-section-description Objectives The project has two objectives: to develop national tsunami inundation maps in Cyprus, Greece and Spain through the methodology applied to produce tsunami inundation maps for evacuation planning in Italy, aiming to achieve compatible tsunami inundation maps across the NEAM region; to address the need for a multi-hazard approach for effective tsunami evacuation management to complement existing tsunami evacuation management guidelines. The proposed new approach focuses on multi-hazard cascading effects concerning tsunami evacuation and emergency management and will be piloted in local sites in Greece and Italy. Collaborators NATIONAL OBSERVATORY OF ATHENS Greece Coordinator National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), Italy Fundación hidráulica ambiental de Cantabria, Spain Higher Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), Italy Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, Italy University of Malaga, Spain Municipality of Lipari, Italy Academy of Athens, Greece The General Secretariat for Civil Protection - Greece Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment of Cyprus Funding partner: Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) Location Southern Europe Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects ALBANIA HAZARD MODELLING Joint development of the Albanian seismic hazard model Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Background GEM and IGEO-Albania are currently implementing a 1-year project funded by the European Investment Fund and supported by the Electrical Corporation of Albania to update Albania’s probabilistic seismic hazard model through a series of technical workshops. The GEM Hazard Team is providing support on the use of its open source tools for hazard model building and assessment. Duration: 2023 Objectives The main objectives of this project are to update the national seismic hazard model for Albania, and provide the outputs that can be used in the National Annex of Eurocode 8, for the seismic design of buildings in Albania. Collaborators GEM Foundation, Institute of Geosciences (IGEO) Funding Partner: European Investment Fund, Electrical Corporation of Albania Location Albania Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Strengthening Albania's Earthquake Preparedness: A Collaborative Effort This project, funded by the Central European Initiative and supported by the Albanian Electricity Corporation, has two objectives. It aims to modernize Albania's seismic hazard map, a crucial step in updating the nation's building code to meet Eurocode 8 standards. This marks the first significant revision to Albania's building regulations since 1989. A more updated view of seismic hazard will help in promoting more cost-effective earthquake-resistant construction practices. Read more Albania’s Institute of Geosciences (IGEO) and GEM collaborate to update the national seismic hazard model GEM and IGEO-Albania implemented a 1-year project funded by the Central European Initiative (CEI - https://www.cei.int/) and the Albanian Electricity Corporation (KESH - https://www.kesh.al/en/) to update Albania's probabilistic seismic hazard model through a series of technical workshops. Read more Anchor3 BUSINESS NEWS NSHMA 2024 Presentation, Tirana, Albania - July 16, 2024 Photo credits: IGEO 1/3 BUSINESS NEWS GEM - IGEO Albania Workshop, Pavia 2023 1/4 Publications

Projects GAR 2023 GAR Special Report 2023: Mapping resilience for the Sustainable Development Goals Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)'s Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2023 offers a unique perspective on development progress by emphasizing risk and resilience in a changing climate. The report features maps developed in collaboration with the GEM Foundation and other agencies (United Nations Geospatial Information Section, Environmental Systems Research Institute - ESRI), displaying country-level Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) indicators and risk drivers, and showcasing resilience deficits. These maps also present future projections of these deficits under different climate scenarios, incorporating IPCC greenhouse-gas-emission-rate scenarios and representative concentration pathways. Duration: 2023 Objectives The report serves as a comprehensive inter-agency effort to assess and address resilience gaps, aiding in informed decision-making for sustainable development. Collaborators GEM Foundation, United Nations Geospatial Information Section, Environmental Systems Research Institute - ESRI Funding partner: UNDRR Location Geneva, Swizterland Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects BEYOND BUTTON PUSHING Earthquake Risk Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis for California Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Report Anchor 6 Background The goal of the project was to show how important the quantification of uncertainty is in estimating and understanding California’s earthquake risk using OpenQuake - GEM Foundation’s state-of-the-art open source earthquake hazard and risk assessment software. With OpenQuake’s plug-and-play capabilities, expert users can individually select or substitute every model component, data, and assumption. This feature will help model users and decision makers to: 1) ‘ask the right questions’ when evaluating model results; 2) better interpret risk assessment results and gain trust in model results; and 3) make better risk management decisions. Duration: 2015-2017 Objectives The main objectives of this project are to: Establish representative sets of exposure: ‣ for the San Francisco Bay Area; ‣ for the Southern California region affected by the Shakeout Scenario Choose specific results (risk metrics) to use as a basis for comparison. Produce ‘baseline’ results from OpenQuake, using a ‘control’ set of assumptions. Undertake a thorough sensitivity analysis for the risk estimates for California based on the UCERF3 model by running OpenQuake multiple times, each time varying one assumption or parameter, such as: ‣ earthquake probabilities (controlled by assumptions about fault geometries, slip rates, maximum magnitudes); ‣ ground motion model selection; ‣ vulnerability functions; ‣ site conditions; and ‣ statistical treatment of uncertainty and correlation Beyond the aims stated at the outset of the project as listed above, several additional objectives were achieved during the course of the project, including the following: Implement within OpenQuake the latest seismic hazard model for California based on the recently published Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF3), produced by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. Calculate the average annual loss estimates for all 8,057 census tracts in California, using the seismic hazard model based on UCERF3. Establish the range (distribution) of scientifically viable results for the chosen risk metrics by accounting for the various uncertainties in the hazard model. Identify the components of the hazard model contributing most to the overall uncertainty in the risk metrics for the different exposure portfolios. Implement a model simplification (‘logic-tree trimming’) software tool to reduce the number of computer runs and greatly speed up the time required for running the risk model for California. Collaborators GEM Foundation Funding partner: Alfred E. Alquist Seismic Safety Commission (SSC) Location California, United States Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications A Report Prepared by the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (GEM) authored by Anirudh Rao, Graeme Weatherill, Vitor Silva, and John Schneider for the CALIFORNIA SEISMIC SAFETY COMMISSION, USA. [Download ]

Projects EU DRR Regional risk modelling and scenario analysis for EU Member States - Seismic risk analysis and exposure data Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background This project supports the World Bank Technical Assistance project "Economic Analysis of Prevention and Preparedness in European Union Member States and Countries under EU Civil Protection Mechanism". The GEM Risk Team provides exposure and probabilistic seismic risk assessments for the 27 EU member states and 6 participating states, building upon the EFEHR ESHM20 hazard and ESRM20 exposure datasets [insert link www.efehr.org ], adding educational and healthcare building stock, and forecasting exposure to 2050. Further, retrofitted vulnerability curves are derived to inform the seismic impact analyses and a cost-benefit analysis. Duration: 2020-2021 Objectives The project is conducted in collaboration with the European Commission’s (EC) Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG ECHO). The objectives of this project are to: 1. Provide regionally-consistent probabilistic seismic risk metrics across Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) countries for population and selected structure types, to inform macro-economic analysis that is to be conducted by the World Bank project team. 2. Provide seismic impact analysis for two selected earthquake scenarios with and without specified DRM intervention, to estimate the impact of that intervention on i) loss due to direct damage and ii) fatalities. This will contribute to cost-benefit analysis of EU-funded DRM investments conducted by the WB project team using the Triple-Dividend framework. Collaborators GEM Foundation Funding partner: World Bank Group Locations EU Member States Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects ARMENIA POST DRR Improving Post-Disaster Damage Data Collection to Inform Decision Making Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background This project, responding to a request from the World Bank for improved post-disaster damage collection, focuses on the collection of data on physical damage to assets such as buildings (residential, commercial, industrial, public), infrastructure, and crops. The aim is to evaluate the current state-of-the-art in post-disaster damage collection – in protocols, tools and systems – in order to identify a suitable protocol and toolset that could be adopted by the Government of Armenia that would be generalisable and available, allowing adoption by other national government agencies or interested parties. The GEM Foundation leads the consortium working on this project, with the GEM Risk Team undertaking the following main tasks: Review of existing protocols, tools and systems Design of a conceptual protocol and toolset Application to the context of Armenia Recommendations Duration: 2018 Objectives Collection of damage data following major disaster events is a fundamental exercise for a multitude of purposes, such as emergency management, resource allocation, fund mobilization and reconstruction planning. The processes involved, and scales of damage assessments vary by country, peril and context. Numerous sector-specific data collection activities provide an estimation of damage, loss and post-disaster needs in order to provide relief and facilitate the commencement of reconstruction and recovery efforts. The project includes identifying and reviewing tools for collecting data in the field as well as damage data aggregation and reporting tools. Of particular interest is the use case in Armenia, demonstrating the needs of a Ministry of Finance requiring national-level reporting of damage on a sub-national level in a transparent system that allows the user to store, retrieve and interrogate damage data down to the asset-level. Collaborators GEM Foundation, JBA Consulting, CIMA Foundation and Geocom Ltd Funding partner: World Bank Group Location Armenia Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications