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  • GEM Team | Global Earthquake Model Foundation | Italy

    GEM TEAM GEM is comprised of the Secretariat, a Governing Board from public, private, academic and non-government organizations worldwide, and an Advisory Board (to assume its duties by June 2019). We work together to advance the state-of-the-art for disaster risk reduction by developing data, tools and information and conducting hazard and risk assessments for improving our understanding of earthquake hazard and risk globally. The GEM Secretariat is located in Pavia, Italy and is hosted by the EUCENTRE. For more information on how to reach us, visit our Contact Us page. Meet the Staff and Board Members Secretariat Management Support Hazard Team Risk Team SVR Team I.T. Governing Board

  • Caribbean and Central America Risk Model | Global Earthquake Model Foundation

    Global Earthquake Maps The Central America and the Caribbean Earthquake Hazard and Risk Model was developed within the scope of a regional programme supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), in collaborations with over a dozen local institutions from the region. This project features the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard model, a uniform exposure dataset covering the residential, commercial and industrial building stock, and a set of vulnerability functions characterizing the likelihood of loss given a seismic hazard intensity. This initiative also covered a number of local events to improve the local capacity to assess earthquake hazard and risk in the region. GEM GLOBAL MOSAIC OF RISK MODELS Caribbean and Central America (CCA) VIEW 1. Exposure Across Central America and the Caribbean, the most complete and updated databases containing exposure information were the national population and household census as well as data from the country Central Bank. With the exception of Haiti, every country in the region provides information about household and population associated to a geographical variable that is either publicly available online or upon request. Therefore both, population and household census were taken from the respective statistical offices to determine the number and location of the residential dwellings. Commercial and industrial data are much less detailed, and usually only the number and size of the facilities are available (See Table below). This data is subjected to the following four-step process in order to create an exposure model: ​ The most common building classes are identified using existing studies and the expert judgement. The World Household Encyclopedia has reports that include the building materials, architectural traits, construction process, socio-economic environment and even seismic performance of common dwelling configurations found in this region. Census variables are crossed to segregate the dwellings into subgroups, which are then subjected to a process of conditional selection. If a dwelling meets the criteria to belong to a certain building class, then it is assigned to that class. Once the dwellings have been distributed among the identified classes with specific structural attributes (e.g height and expected level of ductility), they are converted into buildings and assigned a replacement cost. Models are calibrated based on expert judgement from over 80 professionals from the region providing feedback in key variables like code compliance, average dwelling area and average replacement cost per building class. Central America and the Caribbean Exposure Map 2. Vulnerability The vulnerability component characterizes the likelihood to suffer damage or loss given a hazard intensity. The relation between probability of loss and hazard intensity is expressed by a vulnerability function, whilst the relation between probability of damage for each damage state and hazard intensity is represented by a fragility function. Despite the notable advances in regional seismic vulnerability modelling in the last three decades, a uniform set of vulnerability or fragility functions covering all of the building classes in Africa was not available. Moreover, with a few exceptions, most of the existing vulnerability functions have not been tested against damage data from previous events and have not been applied within a probabilistic framework for earthquake loss assessment. In general, this approach relies on the following steps: Identification of the most common building classes in the region, using peer-reviewed literature, web surveys ( ), and World Housing Encyclopedia reports. https://platform.openquake.org/building-class/ Development of simplified numerical models for each building class, using data from the literature and results from experimental campaigns (e.g. yield and ultimate global drift, elastic and yield period of the first mode of vibration, participation factor of the first mode of vibration, common failure mechanisms). Some of the building classes had to be explicitly modelled using complex 3D models due to the lack of information in the literature. Selection of ground motion records using local strong motion databases, and considering the local seismicity and tectonic environment. To this end, seismic hazard disaggregation at the location of the most urbanized centers supported the identification of the combinations of magnitude and distance, which contribute the most to the seismic hazard. The use of a large set of actual time histories aims at propagating the record-to-record variability to the vulnerability assessment. Performing nonlinear time history analysis to evaluate the structural response (i.e. engineering demand parameter (EDP) – maximum displacement and acceleration) of the simplified numerical model against the selected ground motion records. This step uses the open-source package for structural analysis OpenSees, and the Risk Modelers Toolkit developed and supported by GEM. Evaluation of the structural responses of the numerical models in order to evaluate the evolution of damage with increasing hazard intensities. In this process, the probability of exceeding each damage state for a set of intensity measure levels is defined (i.e. fragility functions). The fragility functions can be converted into vulnerability functions (i.e. probability of loss ratio conditional on ground shaking) using a damage-to-loss model. Such functions can be used directly in the assessment of economic and human losses due to earthquakes. This framework is supported by a set of tools that can be improved upon the release of new models and datasets. As an example, fragility models for the four most common building classes in Africa are illustrated below. 3. Seismic Hazard The main components concerning the probabilistic seismic hazard model for the region can be found in the associated technical documentation. The seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) for a probability of exceedance of 10% in 50 years (equivalent to approximately 475 years return period) is presented in the figure below. Central America and the Caribbean Hazard Map 4. Seismic Risk Results The risk results suggest that absolute annualized losses per country are not correlated with the relative level of risk. For example, Guatemala, Costa Rica and El Salvador hold most of the economic losses by earthquakes over time. However, in terms of relative levels of risk, Nicaragua and Haiti present higher loss ratios than Costa Rica. El Salvador seems to be the nation with the greatest level of earthquake risk in the region, while in the Caribbean loss ratios are the highest in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica. The capital cities with the highest absolute losses are Guatemala City, Managua, San Salvador, San Jose and Santo Domingo. Panama City and Tegucigalpa show much lower levels of risk. In the case of Honduras San Pedro Sula presents higher risk than the country capital, Tegucigalpa. The countries with the lowest levels of seismic risk in the region, namely Belize, Barbados and Cuba, are located in the Caribbean. More detailed risk results by country have been detailed in specific country risk profiles [to be published soon]. In each profile it is possible to find seismic hazard, exposure and risk maps, the sets of EP curves and the list of the top regions at risk at a subnational level. Central America and the Caribbean Risk Map 5. Partners and Contributors The Central America and the Caribbean seismic risk model extensively relies on the enthusiasm and commitment of various organizations that openly collaborated with GEM and its partners. The creation of this model would not have been possible without the support provided by many experts. A list of the individuals that contributed to the development of the Africa seismic risk model is provided below.

  • Risk Technical Description | Global Eathquake Model Foundation

    Global Earthquake Maps GEM GLOBAL MOSAIC OF RISK MODELS Technical Description READ MORE The Global Seismic Risk Map (v2018.1) comprises four global maps. The main map presents the geographic distribution of average annual loss (USD) normalised by the average construction costs of the respective country (USD/m2) due to ground shaking in the residential, commercial and industrial building stock, considering contents, structural and non-structural components. The normalised metric allows a direct comparison of the risk between countries with widely different construction costs. It does not consider the effects of tsunamis, liquefaction, landslides, and fires following earthquakes. The loss estimates are from direct physical damage to buildings due to shaking, and thus damage to infrastructure or indirect losses due to business interruption are not included. The Global Seismic Hazard Map depicts the geographic distribution of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years, computed for reference rock conditions (shear wave velocity of 760-800 m/s). The Global Exposure Map depicts the geographic distribution of residential, commercial and industrial buildings. The Global Seismic Fatalities Map depicts an estimate of average annual human losses due to earthquake-induced structural collapse of buildings. The results for human losses do not consider indirect fatalities such as those from post-earthquake epidemics. The average annual losses and number of buildings are presented on a hexagonal grid, with a spacing of 0.30 x 0.34 decimal degrees (approximately 1,000 km2 at the equator). The average annual losses were computed using the event-based calculator of the OpenQuake engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis developed by the GEM Foundation. The seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability models employed in these calculations were provided by national institutions, or developed within the scope of regional programs or bilateral collaborations. These global maps and the underlying databases are based on best available and publicly accessible datasets and models. Due to possible model limitations, regions portrayed with low risk may still experience potentially damaging earthquakes. The GEM Risk Map is intended to be a dynamic product, such that it may be updated when new datasets and models become available. Releases of updated versions of the seismic risk map are anticipated on a regular basis. Additional hazard and risk metrics for each country can be explored at globalquakemodel.org/gem. ​ How to use and cite this work ​ Please cite this work as: V. Silva, D. Amo-Oduro, A. Calderon, J. Dabbeek, V. Despotaki, L. Martins, A. Rao, M. Simionato, D. Viganò, C. Yepes-Estrada, A. Acevedo, H. Crowley, N. Horspool, K. Jaiswal, M. Journeay, M. Pittore (2018). Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Risk Map (version 2018.1), DOI: 10.13117/GEM-GLOBAL-SEISMIC-RISK-MAP- 2018. This work is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA). ​ Acknowledgements ​ This map is the result of a collaborative effort and extensively relies on the enthusiasm and commitment of various organisations to openly share and collaborate. The creation of this map would not have been possible without the support provided by several public and private organisations during GEM’s second working programme (2014-2018). None of this would have been possible without the extensive support of all GEM Secretariat staff. These key contributions are profoundly acknowledged. A complete list of the contributors can be found at globalquakemodel.org/gem. ​ Legal statements ​ This map is an informational product created by the GEM Foundation for public dissemination purposes. The information included in this map must not be used for the design of earthquake-resistant structures or to support any important decisions involving human life, capital and movable and immovable properties. The values of seismic hazard and risk in this map do not constitute an alternative nor do they replace building actions defined in national building codes or earthquake risk estimates derived nationally. Readers seeking this information should contact the national authorities tasked with seismic hazard and risk assessment. The seismic risk map results from an integration process that is solely the responsibility of the GEM Foundation.

  • Future Work | Global Earthquake Model Foundation | Italy

    FUTURE WORK GEM will continue to focus on the development of models and tools for earthquake risk assessment, and on their application at global, regional, national and local levels. Key activities will include improving the OpenQuake engine and its supporting tools and databases, and strengthening our capacity building and user support program. GEM will also extend its program of work to address more complex risk issues, and will collaborate more extensively with other hazard communities to make OpenQuake tools and models applicable to multi-hazard risk assessment. WORK PROGRAMS 2018 AND BEYOND Programs Planned Activities & Schedule of Deliverables

  • Get Involved | Global Earthquake Model Foundation | Italy

    GET INVOLVED GEM offers flexible mechanisms to enable potential partners to contribute to its ongoing and future work programs. Partners and collaborators can enter into sponsorships, project partnerships and service agreements, and can select the level of engagement based on the needs and requirements. BECOME A SPONSOR RECENT PARTNERS GEM’s sponsorship structure and fees have been designed to incentivize participation of public and private organizations. Public Governors may propose to contribute directly to the work program via an in-kind project to offset the *GERD-based sponsorship contribution. The minimum fees in the table below apply only to sponsors who sign up for three years or more. Sponsor Types and Contributions (2020 onwards) gerd pdf ver.pdf Small Business Advisor Sponsor - for businesses of <20 employees and revenue of < 3M euro per year. The fees are 35k euro per year for a minimum of three years. If the number of employees or revenue exceed the threshold amount in a given year, the fees for subsequent years increase to the Standard Advisor level of 75K euros/year. These criteria must hold for full duration of the sponsorship. Option 1: ​ Start-up Business Advisor Sponsor - for businesses of <20 employees and revenue of < 3M euro per year that anticipate growth in subsequent years. The fees are 150K for three years, with contributions of 25K, 50K and 75K in respective years. If growth is not realized in a given year (i.e., does not exceed the employee and revenue limit), the fees for subsequent years revert to those for Small Business Advisor Sponsor (35,000 euro per year). These criteria must hold at start, commitment for 3 years. *Option 2: ​ Shared Advisor Sponsor - for businesses of <20 employees and revenue of < 3M euro per year. The fees are 75K per year for three years pooled between up to three small business organizations. One organization is designated as the focal point for communication with GEM and participation in meetings. These criteria must hold for all partners for the full duration of the sponsorship. Option 3: BECOME A SPONSOR RECENT PARTNERS Why we support GEM Abhineet Gupta OneConcern Our work with GEM will add value to the AI-based multi-hazard platform that we’ve developed for earthquakes and floods, so that communities can better prepare for and respond to these disasters. Michael Ewald Swiss Re GEM provides state-of-the-art science and software tools. We believe that the pioneering work done by GEM will lead to a new era of collaboration and transparency on seismic hazard and risk assessment. Sonia Talwar NRCan Canada will remain committed to support GEM through development and enhancement of hazard and risk models, tools and data that are critical in formulating disaster risk reduction plans and strategies.

  • Get Started | Global Earthquake Model Foundation | Italy

    Openquake Instructions Related Documentation For modellers, researchers, scientists and engineers 01 Download the latest . user manual 02 Download the latest version of the . OpenQuake Engine 03 Follow the installation guide . here For developers 01 Follow the instructions . here Check OQ Engine's Project Status . here Join the OpenQuake Forum GET STARTED: OQ Engine The OpenQuake Engine is the Global Earthquake Model Foundation’s (GEM) state-of-the-art, open-source software collaboratively developed for earthquake hazard and risk modelling. It runs on operating systems such as Linux, macOS and Windows; and can be deployed on laptops, desktops, standalone servers and multi-node clusters. The functionality to analyze hazard and risks at specific site, city, country or regional level makes the OpenQuake Engine a powerful and dynamic tool for assessing the potential impacts of earthquakes at any location in the world. INSTRUCTIONS AND DOCUMENTATION

  • Old Projects | Global Earthquake Model Foundation | Italy

    WHAT WE DO PROJECTS IMPACT FUTURE WORK REGIONAL, NATIONAL & LOCAL PROJECTS SERA SHARE SARA CCARA SSAHARA EMME Projects in Colombia SARA CRAVE Colombia National Hazard Projects in Armenia Improving Post-Disaster Damage Data Collection to inform Decision Making Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Republic of Armenia Projects in California Back to Normal Beyond Button Pushing EMCA SEARA Regional National/Local MORE PROJECTS

  • Event Summary | Global Earthquake Model Foundation | Italy

    EVENT SUMMARY GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL 2018 A Step Toward Earthquake Resilience 5th of December 2018 | 0900h - 1800h CAR College, Pavia, Italy Collaboration and openness – keys to success of the global earthquake model LINKS Event Details Feedback Contact Us 1. & Introduction Agenda ​ 2. Participants ​ 3. How we built the maps and models ​ Global Earthquake Hazard overview ( ) 53MB Global Earthquake Risk overview ( ) 435MB ​ 4. Featured Presentations Urban risk and resilience Developing an urban earthquake risk assessment capability and applications to cities in Colombia ( ) 7.9MB Developing a National Earthquake Resilience Strategy for Canada ( ) 13MB ​ Disaster impact and closing the protection gap Impacts and lessons from the recent Indonesian earthquakes in Lombok and Palu, Indonesia ( ) 55MB Closing the protection gap for developing countries ( ) 2.1MB ​ 5. , Global Maps Country Profiles and Interactive Viewer ​ 6. (video) GEM2018 Highlights 7. (playlist) GEM2018 Full Video Introduction Global Earthquake Hazard presentation Global Earthquake Risk Presentation Developing an urban earthquake risk assessment capability and applications to cities in Colombia Developing a National Earthquake Resilience Strategy for Canada Impacts and lessons from the recent Indonesian earthquakes in Lombok and Palu, Indonesia Closing the protection gap for developing countries Panel 1: Uses for the maps and models Panel 2: Drivers and demands for the maps and models Panel 3: Future Directions for models Exploring the maps Breakout Sessions GEM-Chinese Earthquake Administration MoU signing, and Closing Remarks ​ 8. Flickr Photos | Set 1 2 Set ​ 9. & 5thDEC Press Release Online News ​ 10. Post Event Interviews 11. GEM2018 Breakout Sessions with Prof. Iain Stewart GEM2018 In Photos Set 1 Set 2 Photo credit: Ivan Sarfatti GEM scientists presented the global earthquake hazard and risk maps in Pavia, Italy to more than 130 delegates around the world from public, private and academic organizations that participated in the GEM2018 launch on December 5th. The maps and the underlying data behind them will enhance global disaster risk reduction strategies according to representatives of UNISDR and World Bank/GFDRR. “This is a great contribution towards putting to the public an open data, collaborative effort with many partners on the best available data on earthquake risk around the world,” said Ricardo Mena UNISDR Chief of Support and Monitoring of Sendai Framework Implementation. Emma Phillips, Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist from GFDRR’s Innovation Lab added, “These products and tools that are coming out of GEM can really help in the process of making informed decisions. The way we think about risk in an open data aspect is very useful when we engage with our clients because we are able to rely on this open information that GEM provides.” GEM, a non-profit organization that started as a pilot project in 2009, has collaborated with a wide range of stakeholders to deliver the global maps, data and analysis tools – bannered by the OpenQuake engine, the software used to run calculations and build the global mosaic of models. Marco Pagani, GEM Hazard Team Leader, presented the , the first of its kind since GSHAP was presented in 1999, highlighting the differences and similarities as well as the methods and tools used to complete the new map. global earthquake hazard map Vitor Silva, GEM Risk Team Leader, presented the comprised of national and regional exposure and vulnerability models. It is the most comprehensive global assessment of earthquake risk to date. global earthquake risk map ​ The products released at the event are as follows: ​ 1. (print and PDF/PNG downloadable files) Hazard and risk maps 2. Interactive map tool Global hazard map with PGA value for selected cell Global exposure with number & value of buildings per country Global risk map with average annual economic losses per country, link to risk profile 3. (PDF download) V1.0 Country Profiles for around 120 countries 4. (on github) Updated Active Fault Database 5. (300 functions) Updated vulnerability Database “The GEM family is very pleased with the products that have been released today. But the more significant achievement was the process on how we got here, the principles that guided us: collaboration, credibility, openness and public good,” said John Schneider – GEM Secretary General. More products and enhancements are planned for the next two years such as the availability of all the models in OpenQuake engine, improved exposure data and vulnerability functions as well as updated Country Risk Profiles. Peer-reviewed technical papers for the many contributions to the earthquake hazard and risk models will be published in a special issue of Earthquake Spectra in early 2020.

  • Outreach | Global Earthquake Model Foundation

    OUTREACH To sustain our efforts, GEM has trained people from more than 100 countries advancing earthquake science and engineering, and knowledge-sharing initiatives putting local experts at the forefront of regional and national initiatives in seismic hazard and risk assessments. GEM works in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific sharing knowledge, data and best practices to increase understanding of risk through social media and online channels to bring together international and local stakeholders. LATEST UPDATES Stay informed. Follow us to keep up to date with the latest developments. E-NEWSLETTER TOPIQS is GEM's bi-monthly newsletter which features the latest from GEM. SOCIAL MEDIA Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

  • Event Feedback | Global Earthquake Model Foundation | Italy

    How the world reacted to the launch of the global maps since Dec 5 2018 Total map downloads 5,173 Total unique map page visits 14,956 Total online referrals/coverage 265 Total countries reached 156 REACTIONS FROM STAKEHOLDERS

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