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  • BEYOND BUTTON PUSHING | Global Earthquake Model Foundation

    Projects BEYOND BUTTON PUSHING Earthquake Risk Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis for California Versión en español English version Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Overview Background The goal of the project was to show how important the quantification of uncertainty is in estimating and understanding California’s earthquake risk using OpenQuake - GEM Foundation’s state-of-the-art open source earthquake hazard and risk assessment software. With OpenQuake’s plug-and-play capabilities, expert users can individually select or substitute every model component, data, and assumption. This feature will help model users and decision makers to: 1) ‘ask the right questions’ when evaluating model results; 2) better interpret risk assessment results and gain trust in model results; and 3) make better risk management decisions. Duration: 2015-2017 Objectives The main objectives of this project are to: Establish representative sets of exposure: ‣ for the San Francisco Bay Area; ‣ for the Southern California region affected by the Shakeout Scenario Choose specific results (risk metrics) to use as a basis for comparison. Produce ‘baseline’ results from OpenQuake, using a ‘control’ set of assumptions. Undertake a thorough sensitivity analysis for the risk estimates for California based on the UCERF3 model by running OpenQuake multiple times, each time varying one assumption or parameter, such as: ‣ earthquake probabilities (controlled by assumptions about fault geometries, slip rates, maximum magnitudes); ‣ ground motion model selection; ‣ vulnerability functions; ‣ site conditions; and ‣ statistical treatment of uncertainty and correlation Beyond the aims stated at the outset of the project as listed above, several additional objectives were achieved during the course of the project, including the following: Implement within OpenQuake the latest seismic hazard model for California based on the recently published Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF3), produced by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. Calculate the average annual loss estimates for all 8,057 census tracts in California, using the seismic hazard model based on UCERF3. Establish the range (distribution) of scientifically viable results for the chosen risk metrics by accounting for the various uncertainties in the hazard model. Identify the components of the hazard model contributing most to the overall uncertainty in the risk metrics for the different exposure portfolios. Implement a model simplification (‘logic-tree trimming’) software tool to reduce the number of computer runs and greatly speed up the time required for running the risk model for California. Collaborators GEM Foundation Funding partner: Alfred E. Alquist Seismic Safety Commission (SSC) Location California, United States

  • CCARA | Global Earthquake Model Foundation

    Projects CCARA Caribbean and Central America Earthquake Risk Assessment (CCARA) Versión en español English version Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Background Earthquake risk is on the rise and earthquakes are expected to take an increasing number of lives. Hazard and risk assessments are the foundation for raising awareness among policy makers and the general public, forming the basis for decisions and actions that effectively build resilience and can reduce risk. While important work has been carried out in the Central American and Caribbean region to understand earthquake risk assessment and management there is still ample room to enhance that understanding and properly introduce it in decision- and policy-making processes. In many areas of the world, state-of-the-art information and tools to assess earthquake risk have been inaccessible for a long time. As a first step to tackle this problem, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has been created and spent the past 11 years collaboratively advancing open source science and technology for global state-of-the-art seismic hazard and risk modeling, data collection, and risk assessment at scales from local to national, regional, and global. Objectives The project aims to calculate hazard and risk, and to estimate the compounding social and economic factors that increase the physical damage and decrease the post-event capacities of populations to respond to and recover from damaging earthquake events in The Caribbean and Central America, by involving local experts from throughout the region. The goal of the Program in Central America and the Caribbean is to develop capacity in the region for earthquake risk assessment by leveraging GEM tools and resources, to enhance the understanding of earthquake risk, and to bridge the gap between risk assessment and disaster risk reduction. To improve the understanding of earthquake risk in the Central America and Caribbean region while developing local capacities to use open source resources for producing earthquake hazard and risk information at regional, national and local scales. To engage with decision-makers and other end-users to make the connection between advanced risk assessment by local experts and risk-reducing action and so influence DRR policy. Collaborators The CCARA project would not have been possible without the contributions of all the municipalities in particular: the Municipality of San José (Costa Rica), National Commission of Emergencies (CNE), University of Costa Rica (UCR) - Laboratorio Nacional de Materiales y Estructuras (LANAMME), INETER, ONESVIE, ODPEM, BRGM, Bureau des Mines, VT, Geologica UPR Mayaquez, UNI, SRC and UMG. Location Caribbean and Central America countries Website Caribbean and Central America Earthquake Risk Assessment (CCARA) wiki site contains an overview of the project. The CCARA project hosted four participants from South America to introduce seismic hazard and risk assessment using tools developed by GEM – specifically the OpenQuake engine. Modelling subduction earthquakes: GEM experiences in Latin America CCARA project GEM presents the results of the USAID-funded CCARA Project in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic A hazard workshop in San José, Costa Rica from September 18th to 22nd as part of the risk assessment activities of the CCARA project. CCAF-DB: The Caribbean and Central American Active Fault Database Disclaimer The contents of this project website such as studies, reports, audio-visual, news articles, blogs, and other information or media products including those in the external links are made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

  • SSAHARA Project | Global Earthquake Model Foundation

    Projects SSAHARA Project Sub Saharan Hazard and Risk Assessment (SSAHARA) Versión en español English version Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Background The East African Rift System (EARS) is the major active tectonic feature of the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Although the seismicity level of such a divergent plate boundary can be described as moderate, several damaging earthquakes have been reported in historical times, and the seismic risk is exacerbated by the high vulnerability of the local buildings and structures. Formulation and enforcement of national seismic codes is therefore an essential risk mitigation strategy. A reliable risk assessment must be based on an updated and reliable seismic hazard model for the region. The last published regional model for SSA was developed within the frame of the GSHAP project and is almost 20 years old (Midzi et al., 1999). The availability of new data, local and regional seismotectonic studies and recently developed methods and tools prompt the development of a new PSHA model summarizing the current state of knowledge in Sub-Saharan Africa. Objectives In September 2014, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) GEM funding support to implement a program entitled “Reducing Earthquake Risk collaboratively by Building Capacity and Leveraging GEM’s Open Tools and Resources”. One of the objectives of this program was: to build the capacity in sub-Saharan Africa for integrated risk assessment and development of city earthquake scenarios involving local decision-makers. The project produced the SSA-GEM homogenized catalogue; the Seismic Source Zones; the Probabilistic Hazard Calculations; the Strain Rate Model; earthquake risk in East Sub-Saharan Africa; the residential building stock; and the Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk in Sub Sahara Africa. Collaborators The development of a regional model would not have been possible without the contribution of experts from the local scientific community. Partnership with local governmental institutions and authorities was an essential step to facilitate model acceptance and for potential integration with national seismic codes. GEM worked with the following institutions for the implementation of the SSAHARA project. African Union; AfricaArray; FEPRA – Ethiopia; University of Pennsylvania; Addis Ababa City Government; UNDP Regional Office; and international agencies, municipalities and government agencies Location Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda Website SSAHARA wiki website containing technical descriptions and overview of the project. News Preventionweb article on the release of the Africa Model developed as part of the Sub-Sahara Hazard and Risk Assessment (SSAHARA) project funded by USAID. Disclaimer The contents of this project website such as studies, reports, audio-visual, news articles, blogs, and other information or media products including those in the external links are made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

  • CAREC | Global Earthquake Model Foundation

    Projects CAREC Developing a Disaster Risk Transfer Facility in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region Versión en español English version Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Overview Background Willis Towers Watson, a GEM Advisor Sponsor is leading the consortium of organizations to implement the project, “Developing a Disaster Risk Transfer Facility in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region” supported by the Asian Development Bank. The GEM Risk Team is responsible for the exposure and seismic vulnerability components of the project, with the Hazard Team providing support in the preparation of risk profiles for countries in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region. Objectives The project has three main components: (i) development of disaster risk assessments and modeling in all CAREC countries; (ii) design of a regional pilot disaster risk transfer facility for at least three CAREC countries; and (iii) capacity building and awareness raising activities to sensitize key public and private stakeholders in all CAREC countries about the benefits of disaster risk reduction, risk retention and risk transfer solutions. Willis Towers Watson, a GEM Advisor Sponsor is leading the consortium of organizations that will implement the project. The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, or CAREC Program is a partnership of 11 countries (Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, People's Republic of China, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), supported by 6 multilateral institutions, working together to promote development through cooperation, leading to accelerated growth and poverty reduction. Location Central Asia GEM has started a new project with WTW supported by the Asian Development Bank.

  • GEOINQUIRE | Global Earthquake Model Foundation

    Projects GEOINQUIRE GeoINQUIRE: Geosphere INfrastructures for QUestions into Integrated REsearch Versión en español English version Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Overview Background The GeoINQUIRE project provides and enhances access to selected key data, products, and services, enabling the dynamic processes within the geosphere to be monitored and modelled at new levels of spatial and temporal detail and precision. Geo-INQUIRE benefits from a unique partnership of 51 partners consisting of major national research institutes, universities, national geological surveys, and European consortia. Geo-INQUIRE will enhance and make interoperable the activities of the involved partners and conduct dedicated training programs for their optimal use. A portfolio of 150 Virtual Access (VA) and Transnational Access (TA, both virtual and on-site) installations will be offered to the scientific community. The GEM Foundation is offering one of the Virtual Access services within the geohazard-and-multi-risk-assessment portfolio of services; this service will provide access to earthquake and secondary hazards impact data. Duration: 2022 - 2026 Objectives The project aims to overcome cross-domain barriers, especially the land-sea-atmosphere environments, and will exploit innovative data management techniques, modelling and simulations methods, developments in AI and big data, and extend existing data infrastructures to disseminate these resources to the wider scientific community, including the EOSC landscape. Collaborators Please refer to: https://www.geo-inquire.eu/about/partners Funding partner: European Commission Location Potsdam, Germany

  • CAYMAN ISLANDS PSHA | Global Earthquake Model Foundation

    Projects CAYMAN ISLANDS PSHA Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Cayman Islands Versión en español English version Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Overview Background Thr project aims to perform a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Cayman Islands, and provide the seismic input necessary for the International Building Code (IBC). The GEM Hazard Team is responsible for the seismotectonic and geodynamic characterisation of the study area, the definition of distributed seismicity and fault sources, and the modelling of the epistemic uncertainties. Duration: 2020 Objectives The main objective is to provide input to the 2016 Cayman Islands Building Code, to support engineers in the seismic design and assessment of structures. Collaborators GEM Foundation, EUCENTRE Foundation Funding partner: Cayman Islands Government Location Cayman Islands

  • GEORGIA DRR | Global Earthquake Model Foundation

    Projects GEORGIA DRR Capacity building to understand and take action on seismic risks in Georgia Versión en español English version Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Overview Background This project aims to enhance the understanding of earthquake impacts in Georgia and to address the following two challenges: i. The lack of understanding of potential earthquake risk and the impact on people, infrastructure and the economy at large; and ii. the lack of efforts to reduce the vulnerability of existing infrastructure, particularly critical emergency response infrastructure. The project is divided into 5 tasks, with the GEM Risk Team contributing to all tasks, with a specific emphasis on developing exposure models, identifying vulnerability models and running the probabilistic seismic risk assessment with the OpenQuake engine: Task 1 – Project Inception Task 2 – Preparation of Input Data & Development of Input Models Task 3 – Seismic Risk Analysis Task 4 – Recommendations on Risk Reduction Strategy Task 5 – Capacity Building Workshops Duration: 2020-2021 Objectives The objective of this project is to provide greater insight to the World Bank into the exposure of Georgia’s emergency response sectors to earthquakes and the potential consequences, as well as strategies to build seismic resilience in these sectors. The findings allow the World Bank to develop recommendations and better advise the Government of Georgia on how to: i. enhance its capacity to plan for future risk reduction investment programs based on a better understanding of earthquake risk in emergency response buildings; ii. develop options for a framework for a future short, medium and long-term intervention strategy; and iii. communicate and build consensus on earthquake risks and potential interventions in key sectors. Collaborators GEM Foundation, Arup, Progress Project LLC, Ilia State University Funding partner: World Bank Group Location Georgia

  • CRAVE | Global Earthquake Model Foundation

    Projects CRAVE Collaborative Risk Assessment for Volcanoes and Earthquakes (CRAVE) Versión en español English version Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Summary The need to better understand the existing earthquake and volcano risk led to the establishment of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the Global Volcano Model (GVM) network. GEM, founded in Italy in 2009, has been developing open tools and models to calculate and communicate seismic hazard and risk worldwide. Similarly, the GVM network represents an international community aiming to provide systematic evidence, data and analysis of volcanic hazards and risk on national, regional and global scales working with monitoring institutions to implement the best science and DRR strategies. Both GEM and the GVM network are currently leading international efforts that aim to mitigate the adverse effects from these perils. South America and ASEAN regions have been the target of numerous studies in the last two decades. However, most of these studies only focused on one component of the risk problem (e.g. hazard, vulnerability). Such limitation prevents the development of a comprehensive risk profile to properly inform decision-makers. The CRAVE project, through the current GEM and GVM network tools will offer a timely and unique opportunity to advance the understanding of seismic and volcanic risk in the region. Objectives This project aims to develop a common framework for the assessment of the impact from earthquakes and volcanoes, with an application in three countries located around the Pacific Rim. The activities comprised in this project feature several events to bring together global partners with the mandate to calculate and communicate seismic and volcanic risk, as well as training events to increase the capacity of local institutions in the assessment of their hazard and risk. Collaborators This project includes several partners including the following: British Geological Survey; the Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS); the University of Edinburgh; the Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS); and key organizations from the region including: the Colombian Geological Survey; the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology;(PHIVOLCS); and Badan Geologi (Indonesia). Location Colombia, Indonesia and the Philippines Volcano Scenario tool for OpenQuake The CRAVE project required the implementation of a new calculator in the OpenQuake Engine called ‘multi_risk’, which is able to manage at the same time different types of hazards, specifically ash fall, pyroclastic density currents flow, lava flow and lahar flow, passed as CSV files with headers ‘lon’, ‘lat’, ‘intensity’. The calculator is also able to consider the difference between dry and wet ash by setting the `ash_wet_amplification_factor` parameter in the job.ini file. The output of the calculator is a CSV file with ‘Exposure + Risk’ fields. For convenience we also produced a ‘Total Risk’ output which is simply the sum over the assets of the values in the ‘Exposure + Risk’ output. In order to support other formats used in the volcanic hazard community we prepared tools to convert hazard footprints into the format accepted by the OpenQuake-engine. These tools were included in the Input Preparation Toolkit. [Software ] Volcano Model example Full example of the volcano model developed with the Servicio Geológico Colombiano (SGC). [Data ] OpenQuake Volcano Risk Assessment OpenQuake for volcano risk assessment? Yes! Now you can perform volcanic scenarios. Checkout our tutorial! [Video ] Introduction The presentation of the tools and datasets from CRAVE took place in Bogota (Colombia) and Bandung (Indonesia). These events were organized by the Colombian Geological Survey and the Institute of Technology of Bandung. Kick-off Meeting The kick-off meeting took place in Bogota at the offices of the Colombian Geological Survey (SGC) on the 22nd of February 2018. During the meeting the goals of the CRAVE project were presented by GEM, as well as some concepts on seismic hazard, vulnerability and risk modelling. The British Geological Survey (BGS) presented general aspects of volcano hazard modelling and the mission of the Global Volcano Model, the SGC demonstrated how three volcanoes are currently being monitored and how seismic hazard maps have been developed in the past and the Rabaul Volcano Observatory (RVO) presented the current situation in terms of volcano hazard monitoring and assessment in Papua New Guinea. During this event all partners also discussed the way forward, including the division of tasks, case studies, relevant risk outputs and the timeframe for the next workshops. Bandung, Indonesia (20-22 of May) Workshop – IT Bandung With support from the Institute of Technology of Bandung (ITB), the event featured a day of presentations and discussion with representatives from the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM), the Indonesian Ministry of Public Works, the National Disaster Management Agency (Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana - BNPB), the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika - BMKG), the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) and the British Geological Survey (BGS). Bogota, Colombia (13-17 of May) Workshop - Geological Survey of Colombia Five days in Bogota provided a fruitful time to share and discuss the national volcanic hazard and risk assessment, as well as risk management challenges in the country. The workshop was divided into two main parts: The first part focused on the technical aspects of volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Representatives from the three mains national volcanological observatories participated in the sessions (Manizales, Popayan and Pasto). The second part of the workshop was conceived for a broader audience, involving stakeholders that contribute to the Disaster Risk Reduction strategy in the country. CRAVE project kicks off in Colombia The USAID project – Collaborative Risk Assessment for Volcanoes and Earthquakes or CRAVE successfully kicked off with a workshop in Bogota, Colombia. [News ] CRAVE in Colombia and Indonesia Members of the USAID-supported project – CRAVE from Colombia and Indonesia participated in two separate workshops to discuss volcanic threats and risks. [News ] CRAVE workshop, Bandung, Indonesia Workshop at IT Bandung exploring open tools and models for #earthquake and #volcano #hazard and #risk assessment with project partners. [Social Media ] BUSINESS NEWS CRAVE project workshops held in Bogota, Colombia 1/3 BUSINESS NEWS CRAVE project workshops held in Bandung, Indonesia 1/5 CRAVE Project Final Report Final Report to USAID/OFDA for: CRAVE-Collaborative Risk Assessment for Volcanoes and Earthquakes [Report ] Disclaimer The contents of this project website such as studies, reports, audio-visual, news articles, blogs, and other information or media products including those in the external links are made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

  • PERU PUBLIC SCHOOLS | Global Earthquake Model Foundation

    Projects PERU PUBLIC SCHOOLS Development of an Insurance Program for Peru’s Public Schools Versión en español English version Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Overview Background The project aims to protect more than 50,000 public schools in Peru against the impact of natural disasters, and to improve continuity for children’s education by accelerating reconstruction and strengthening the country’s resilience through an innovative insurance programme. The GEM Hazard and Risk Teams are contributing to the design of the insurance programme with expertise in the earthquake hazard and risk modelling of school buildings in Peru. Duration: 2020 - 2024 Objectives The main objective of this project is to design an insurance programme for Peru’s public schools. The project will provide the Government of Peru with options to cover all or a subset of its more than 50,000 public schools against the impact of natural disasters thus accelerating reconstruction, while also strengthening the country’s resilience. Collaborators GEM Foundation, AXA XL, Munich Re, Peruvian Association of Insurance Companies (APESEG), JBA Risk Management, InsurTech Picsure. Funding partner: Germany’s InsuResilience Solutions Fund (ISF) Location Peru

  • AZERBAIJAN DRR | Global Earthquake Model Foundation

    Projects AZERBAIJAN DRR Risk modeling and scenario analysis for Azerbaijan - Seismic risk analysis Versión en español English version Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Overview Background One of the analyses to be conducted under the World Bank Groups' Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs), is to look at the fiscal and economic impacts of disasters in Azerbaijan, including the size of the macro-fiscal risk posed by earthquakes, floods, and droughts, and identify potential opportunities to increase financial resilience. For the risk modeling and scenario analysis for Azerbaijan, the GEM Risk Team further expands the Azerbaijan model in GEM's Global Seismic Risk Model, by projecting the exposure and risk to 2050 by taking into account the evolving demographics and socio-economic conditions in Azerbaijan. Duration: 2022 Objectives The World Bank is preparing the Country Climate and Development Report for Azerbaijan. The CCDR aims to inform policy dialogue and engagement with the Government of Azerbaijan. This provides an opportunity to carry out several analytical pieces, including in the area of Disaster Risk Management, bringing together existing knowledge on the economic and social impacts of disasters and climate change, and delivering new analytical insights to support policy recommendations. Collaborators GEM Foundation Funding partner: World Bank Group Location Azerbaijan

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