Publications Assessing the impact of earthquake scenarios in transportation networks: the Portuguese mining factory case study Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2017 | Peer-reviewed This study presents an open-source framework for the evaluation of the consequences of seismic events on transportation systems, and their impact on the surrounding industry. When applied to the specific case of a given company or organization, the framework allows the estimation of expected losses due to the disruption of specific transportation routes. The methodology was applied to a case study of a Portuguese mining factory whose production and exportation rely on the accessibility to strategic regions in the country using the highway and railway networks. Several methodological issues (e.g., spatial correlation in the ground motion, correlation in the damage) are explored within a sensitivity analysis to identify which features can impact seismic performance indicators (collapse and disruption probabilities; repair and disruption time) of specific routes.

News Earthquake Science for re/insurance decision makers By: Nov 25, 2020 Share Facebook LinkedIn Leveraging GEM vulnerability database in loss modelling: a comprehensive approach towards risk quantification. On September 23rd Willis Towers Watson - Willis Research Network organized a webinar on Earthquake science for (re)insurance decision-makers: Bridging the Gap Between Academia and Industry where close to 200 attendees participated. The webinar featured GEM’s Marco Pagani and Vitor Silva to discuss how the industry can leverage the latest research outputs from GEM. Marco Pagani, GEM Hazard Team Coordinator discussed leveraging the GEM model for probabilistic loss estimation and presented the GEM Global Earthquake Model 2020 updates and future program. Vitor Silva, GEM Risk Team Coordinator presented the GEM exposure and vulnerability updates with focus on a region where GEM has utilized high resolution data for model development, and on non-residential areas to highlight relevance to the insurance industry. Marco and Vitor were joined by Myrto Papaspiliou, Massimiliano Arizzi and Crescenzo Petrone - Willis Re’s earthquake experts who further discussed scientific developments in seismic hazard and risk analysis, and their translation into (re)insurance business applications. After presenting and discussing how to use GEM exposure and vulnerability databases to enhance loss assessment and leverage GEM model for probabilistic loss estimation, the panelists arrived at two conclusions: - analytics and the input from academia will play a significant role in managing risk under current market conditions; and - leveraging GEM outputs in business decision-making can significantly improve capital management and control earnings volatility. For more details on the webinar, visit WTW’s blog at https://www.willistowerswatson.com/en-GB/Insights/2020/11/earthquake-science-for-re-insurance-decision-makers . No images found. GALLERY 1/3 Gallery VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

GEM Impact Story Series Fascination with Puzzles and Numbers at an Early Age From a young age, I was captivated by puzzles and numbers. I’d spend hours piecing puzzles together, unknowingly honing focus and patience. Numbers fascinated me too - I saw them as something fun and infinite. Even a simple abacus felt exciting. Looking back, these early passions quietly laid the groundwork for the skills I rely on every day in my professional life. Growth and Change: Brotherhood, Memory and the Shape Of Time Riding bikes with my older brother was our childhood adventure - climbing hills, meeting friends, and watching the sky shift at sunset. Those moments taught me to notice time passing, a feeling of wonder that still lingers. We shared everything, just 1.5548 years apart - a number I proudly calculated as a kid. Our bond gave us a mix of sensitivity and resilience, shaped by growing up in a world before and during the tech boom. Looking back helps me stay connected to what’s always been there, quietly guiding who I’ve become. Epicentre of a Calling: the Day Buildings Fell and Fear Found a Voice I was 13 when the earth showed me its power. On 13 January 2001, a 7.7-magnitude quake struck while I was in a four-storey building with my brother. The shaking felt endless. I learned that buildings can fall, and fear has a sound: screams, cracking walls, and a pounding heart. Aftershocks followed, along with damage to our home. But the worst was the landslide that claimed friends and family. That day left a lasting scar - and unknowingly, it became the starting point of everything that would shape me. Between Beams and Blueprints: Discovering a Duty to Protect My parents - an architect and a civil engineer - taught me that engineering is more than a job; it’s service and hope. Visiting construction sites as a child, I found my calling. I pursued Civil Engineering, drawn to equations and problem-solving. But even then, I felt it had to mean more than exams - it had to protect lives. I began to see that good design isn’t just technical; it’s a tool for resilience and safety. From Fault Lines to Frontlines: Teamwork and the Quiet Power of Leadership In 2010, I joined the Ministry of Environment, where I realised that understanding risk was only the beginning - you had to communicate it, monitor it, and act on it. I started as a seismic and geological monitoring technician, working long shifts with limited equipment but strong determination. I automated processes, built tools, and steadily moved closer to my goal: protecting people through meaningful, data-informed action. While working full-time, I pursued an MBA to better understand how to manage, plan, and lead. It was challenging - juggling night classes and monitoring shifts - but it taught me discipline, teamwork, and leadership. Blanchard’s Situational Leadership model still guides me today. A Door in a Wall: Discovering GEM and Openquake In 2014, I discovered GEM and its OpenQuake tools - it made science feel clear and accessible. I tested El Salvador data and joined a global community through forums. In 2017, while studying in Japan, I used GEM for my thesis on school buildings’ seismic vulnerability. That moment changed everything: I realised science, local context, and human purpose could work together to reduce risk and build resilience. Open Tools, Shared Goals: Strengthening Risk Assessment Across Borders In 2019, I returned to El Salvador and proposed using OpenQuake and local data to update outdated hazard models. I shared my knowledge, and soon these methods were used in World Bank and IDB projects. Though abroad during the CCARA project, I contributed essential strong-motion classifications. Later, I was invited to Costa Rica - proof that a shared regional vision for seismic risk was finally taking shape. The FORCE Project – A Turning Point in Risk and Policy The FORCE project marked a turning point - we built El Salvador’s first open national seismic risk model. For the first time, we included future risk projections, linking urban growth and socioeconomic trends. It was eye-opening: how we build today shapes tomorrow’s risk. This tool helped influence policy, support our new seismic code, and show that risk reduction is not just technical - it’s political, economic, and deeply human. A Beacon in the Chaos: The Interactive Seismic Risk Dashboard A major milestone was creating an interactive seismic risk dashboard to estimate losses and guide emergency response - essential in a country where every minute matters. FORCE also updated our exposure model and fostered collaboration. I built an ArcGIS Survey app using GEM’s taxonomy, enabling institutions to collect data. These practical, replicable tools are what we need for effective earthquake preparedness and response. As the Earth Moves, So Must We I’ve grown, studied, and travelled - but I’m still that boy who learned the earth moves, and we must move with it: wisely and with purpose. Now, as a father, every model, code, or training I work on carries deeper meaning. One day, I hope my daughter sees that science is about people - and that perseverance and kindness can shape a safer, more hopeful world. What We Remember, We Prepare For Finally, I hope this story serves as a reminder that we live on seismic land, and that memory must stay alive. Earthquake preparedness shouldn’t begin only after a disaster; it must be woven into our daily decisions, into our building codes, and into the way we imagine the future. If this story can inspire other professionals, young people, or decision-makers to take action, then it has already fulfilled its purpose. As Mahatma Gandhi once said, “In a gentle way, you can shake the world.” Grazie Mille! About the GEM Impact Stories Earthquake risk remains abstract and highly technical, and there are significant risks that due to poor or limited understanding of it, policymakers and the public at large may not be able to fully take advantage of existing and future information that can either help create better or enhance existing earthquake risk reduction and management strategies, especially at the local and national level. Specifically, the GEM Impact Stories project aims to: Collect and document stories where GEM or its partners have contributed to positive change; Encourage policy and decision makers to use science- and evidence- based information to formulate earthquake DRR strategy at the national level through positive stories of change; and Increase awareness of the public at large on earthquake risk and preparedness. A Q&A with Luis Ernesto Mixco Durán Luis Ernesto Mixco Durán obtained his Civil Engineering degree from the Universidad Centroamericana José Simeón Cañas (UCA) in El Salvador. He holds a Master’s degree in Natural Disaster Management, with a specialisation in Seismic Engineering, from the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo, Japan, and a Master’s degree in Business Administration from UCA. His expertise includes geological hazard monitoring, seismological research, seismic hazard and risk modelling, calibration of instrumental intensity maps, generation of structural fragility curves, and characterisation of strong ground motion. He currently serves as a seismologist at the Natural Hazards and Resources Observatory within the Ministry of Environment, where he contributes to advancing seismic risk assessment and updating seismic design provisions. Acknowledgement This story was made possible through the collaboration between the GEM Foundation (Pavia, Italy) and the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) of El Salvador. We extend our heartfelt thanks to the MARN team for their invaluable support in preparing this GEM Impact Story, and to Luis for providing all the photos and for trusting GEM with his inspiring story. Related Contents From Fear to Resilience Luis's story in PDF brochure format. Title : From Fear to Resilience Video: Luis Mixco's interview Duration: 06:14 mins.

News OASIS Conference - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly By: Jul 2, 2018 Share Facebook LinkedIn On September 5th and 6th, GEM Secretary General John Schneider attended a Loss Modeling Conference in London called “The good, the bad and the ugly”. The event was organized by OASIS, a non-profit company that has developed the Loss Modelling Framework, an open access cat modelling platform, free to use by anyone. The conference focused on the development and application of cat models, and was attended by around 200 leading experts in catastrophe risk modelling together with experts in risk management and the applications of cat models within the insurance sector. The conference had a mix of plenary and breakout sessions, with themes devoted to different aspects of cat models, such as correlation, uncertainty, validation, vulnerability, and financial loss, as well as case study examples for earthquake, severe storm and flood. The format was particularly successful in stimulating discussion between model users and model developers, and clearly demonstrated the increasing level of interest in addressing complex issues and appreciation for different approaches in the development and application of risk models. The use of GEM databases and the OpenQuake platform was highlighted by many participants. For your interest, a set of presentation slides is available via dropbox: https://www.dropbox.com/sh/4lxxr3nsxfajx4b/AACBkzewnYzCTQPeYobRh87ka?dl=0 No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications Selection of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for GEM1* Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2010 | Report This document describes a selection of published ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) (also known as attenuation relations or ground-motion models) and their features, for use in the seismic hazard assessment to be performed at the global scale in GEM1. Such a scale of application obviously requires that all the significant tectonic regimes affecting the generation of earthquakes that can cause damage to the built environment be taken into account in the selection. This requirement marks a first difference with respect to, for instance, those of the SHARE project, focussed on Europe and neighbouring countries only. The extension to the global scale requires dealing with many large regions belonging to different tectonic regimes where no strong-motion data have ever been recorded and no GMPEs directly based on strong-motion data been proposed. The whole of Africa, leaving out Algeria and Egypt, is a striking example of this situation, as are vast areas of Asia.

News GEM Outstanding Contributor award: Peter Pazak - Aon Impact Forecasting By: Sep 15, 2022 Share Facebook LinkedIn Peter Pazak is this year’s recipient of the GEM Outstanding Contributor award. The award is given to individuals who have demonstrated exemplary contributions to GEM’s work. Peter is given this award for his dedicated participation in the OpenQuake user forum and contributions to significant improvements of the OpenQuake software. Peter is one of the most active members of the OpenQuake user forum with over 100 posts providing assistance and offering friendly advice with clarity and professionalism. As one of the early adopters of the universal installer for the OpenQuake engine, his feedback contributed to significant improvements to the installer, particularly on the Windows platform. Peter has contributed to making the OpenEngine a better tool and has helped make the OpenQuake user forum a more collaborative support tool. He has worked with GEM and other stakeholders, demonstrating GEM’s core values. For this reason, the GEM Foundation recognised Peter Pažák with the 2022 Outstanding Contribution award. Congratulations Peter! Read Peter’s story and learn how he began his passion for catastrophe modelling. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News Nigel Priestley Seminar 2018 By: Jul 12, 2018 Share Facebook LinkedIn The Fourth International Nigel Priestley Seminar took place on May 24 and 25 within the premises of the CAR College Auditorium in Pavia. The Seminar is named in honour of Prof. Nigel Priestley, co-founder of the ROSE School in 2001. The Seminar is an occasion for Master and PhD students of the Understanding and Managing Extremes (UME) Graduate School of the IUSS (Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori) to present and discuss their research work to an audience of international experts in the field of Earthquake Engineering, Engineering Seismology and Hydrological, Weather, Geological, Chemical and Environmental Risks. On May 25 Alejandro Calderón, Physical Risk Engineer at GEM, delivered a presentation titled “Towards a Unified Earthquake Loss Assessment Model for Central America and the Caribbean”, which he also presented in Greece in June at the 16th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering. As part of his doctoral research, Alejandro is interested in the state of physical earthquake risk in the region of Central America and the Caribbean. Within the framework of the GEM CCARA project, Alejandro contributed in the risk assessment for the region by deriving exposure models for these countries combining census datasets and satellite imagery. The results presented in the seminar included the country earthquake risk profiles for the region that are part of the Global Risk Model currently in development by the GEM Foundation. Each profile contains valuable information about the exposed human and economic capital, the level of earthquake hazard and the expected average annual losses for each country. Alejandro also presented preliminary results on the assessment of possible future risk scenarios for which the spatial distribution of buildings, their structural typologies and earthquake vulnerability were inferred from the construction evolutive process observed in Central America and other regions of the world. In addition to standard presentations on research work carried out within the Programmes of the School, the annual Seminar features also the tradition of inviting a prominent scientist to deliver a keynote lecture on a given contemporary and highly relevant topic in the field of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology. At this year’s event, the keynote lecture entitled “Twenty-three years from Kobe - Japanese research and practice on collapse, performance, functionality, and resilience” was delivered by Professor Masayoshi Nakashima, Professor at the University of Kyoto. As it is customary at each end of the event, the Seminar concluded with the awarding of a prize to one of the most prominent scientists studying in the field of earthquake engineering. This year, the sixth edition of the ROSE School Prize has been awarded to Professor Anil K. Chopra. Below, an excerpt of the motivation: “Anil K. Chopra, Professor Emeritus at the University of California at Berkeley, is a renowned leader in structural dynamics and earthquake engineering. His work has had a profound influence on the direction of structural engineering research and practice. […] Chopra’s research activities have included studies of structural dynamics, various problems in earthquake analysis and design of buildings, dynamic soil structure interaction, dynamic fluid structure interaction, and earthquake analysis and design of concrete dams. His textbook, Dynamics of Structures: Theory and Applications to Earthquake Engineering, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2012, and 2017 is the most highly regarded and internationally translated textbook in the field of structural dynamics and earthquake engineering. It is considered a must-read book for everybody working in seismic analysis.” No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News GEM launches its Impact Story Series project By: Dec 18, 2019 Share Facebook LinkedIn Science for Social Change: pilot GEM Impact Story GEM is proud to announce the launch of its Impact Story Series project as part of the organizational strategy to capture the successes of its project partners, collaborators and sponsors in the use of GEM tools, products and expertise. Earthquake risk assessment remains abstract and highly technical, and there are significant risks that due to poor or limited understanding of it, policymakers and the public at large may not be able to fully take advantage of existing and future information that can either help create better or enhance existing earthquake risk reduction and management strategies, especially at the local and national level. Specifically, the GEM Impact Story project aims to: Collect and document stories where GEM and its partners have contributed to positive change Encourage policy and decision makers to use science- and evidence- based information to formulate earthquake DRR strategy at the national level through positive stories of change Increase awareness of the public at large on earthquake risk and preparedness The project is expected to encourage and inspire sponsors to share their stories that leverage GEM products and expert advice; and to identify demonstrators and champions to concretely showcase GEM impact or use of GEM products. The collected stories are also envisioned to catalyze the development of a clearer, impact-oriented documentation of GEM projects and organizational activities. In the pilot story, Science for Social Change, GEM interviewed Prof. Ana Beatriz Acevedo of EAFIT University to get to know her insights, perspectives and her work in Colombia around earthquake risk awareness, understanding and resilience. The interview also touched on how and why she got involved with GEM. To get a preview of her story, click . The full launch of pilot story will be done early next year. This will include a photo blog, a brochure of the full text of her interview and a 3-minute video. If you have a story to share, please contact jephraim.oro@globalquakemodel.org. No images found. GALLERY 1/9 Gallery VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News EERI’s Earthquake Spectra releases Special Edition on GEM2018 Global Earthquake Hazard and Risk papers By: Nov 25, 2020 Share Facebook LinkedIn Several peer-reviewed papers on the GEM2018 Global Earthquake Hazard and Risk Model are now available through EERI’s Earthquake Spectra Special Edition. The papers authored by various GEM collaborators from around the world describe how the global, regional and national hazard and risk models launched in December 2018 were developed. This special issue documents the supporting research critical to the development of the Global Seismic Hazard and Risk models by the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) Foundation, representing a major step in understanding earthquake risk globally. Seismic hazard and risk models are needed for accurate assessment of risks in order to promote risk reduction and mitigating actions, such as the improvement of building codes and construction practices, sustainable land use, emergency response, and protection of critical infrastructures, as well as risk transfer through insurance. “The publication of this special volume of papers in Earthquake Spectra marks another great milestone for GEM by revealing to the research community the underlying science and engineering that have gone into the Global Earthquake Maps completed in 2018 ,” said John Schneider, GEM Secretary General. A total of 16 papers can now be accessed at . To read the full press release, visit . No images found. GALLERY 1/1 Gallery VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News METIS Summer School on Seismic Hazard Analysis By: Mar 1, 2022 Share Facebook LinkedIn Applications are now being accepted for the METIS Summer School on Seismic Hazard Analysis, to be held at in Pavia (Italy) from 20th to 23rd June 2022. The Global Earthquake Model Foundation (GEM; www.globalquakemodel.org) and the University School for Advanced Studies (IUSS; www.iusspavia.it) will host a summer school on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The school, organized under the auspices of the METIS project (EU Euratom research and training program 2014-2018, grant agreement n°94512 - metis-h2020.eu), will be held in person1 and will consist of a series of lectures and hands-on laboratories. The goal of the school is to introduce the participants to the calculation of probabilistic seismic hazard and to recent methodologies developed in the framework of the METIS project. The topics offered will include an introduction to the main functionalities of the OpenQuake Engine (see www.globalquakemodel.org/openquake) and, GEM's tools for building components of a hazard input model, aftershock PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis), vector-valued PSHA and the conditional spectrum approach, and time-histories selection for engineering applications. The School targets PhD/Master students and other early-career researchers. Participation to the school is free. Participants are expected to cover their travel and accommodation costs. The maximum number of participants is 20. Applications to the summer school can be submitted by filling the form available at the following link: . The application deadline is April 15, 2022.* More about the call at . ____________________ *We are monitoring the Covid-19 situation and will adapt accordingly. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 Gallery VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS