News GEM's Role in Shaping the EMME24 Model at ASC 2024 By: Dec 18, 2024 Nov 6, 2024 Share Facebook LinkedIn The Asian Seismological Commission (ASC) 2024 General Assembly, held from 3-7 November in Belek, Antalya, Türkiye, brought together leading experts, researchers, and stakeholders to discuss advancements in earthquake science and disaster risk reduction. Hosted by the Asian Seismological Commission - Türkiye in collaboration with key scientific institutions, the event showcased over 200 oral and poster presentations covering diverse topics, including seismic hazard assessment and disaster management. GEM contributed to the success of the congress, particularly during the session on the Earthquake Model of the Middle East 2024 (EMME24). Kirsty Bayliss, GEM’s Seismic Hazard Scientist, presented the organisation’s key contribution - a new source branch for the updated EMME24 model. This branch incorporates multi-fault rupture scenarios, addressing complexities in seismic hazard assessment for the Middle East region. The session on the Earthquake Model of the Middle East 2024 (EMME24), convened by Ayşegül Askan (METU, Türkiye) and Laurentiu Danciu (ETH, Switzerland), highlighted key updates to the model, including GEM’s significant contributions. The presentations provided an in-depth look at advancements in seismic hazard modelling for the region, with GEM's work on multi-fault rupture scenarios serving as a key component in refining seismic hazard assessments and offering attendees valuable insights into the project’s methodology and outcomes. The congress also featured a range of technical sessions on cutting-edge topics, including seismic hazard assessment, remote sensing technologies, and public outreach. Kirsty expressed appreciation for the event's collaborative atmosphere: “The ASC General Assembly provides a great opportunity to meet with the wider seismology community, to exchange ideas and refine methodologies to improve our understanding of seismic hazard and risk in high-risk regions.” EMME24, a multi-stakeholder modelling initiative coordinated by international experts, aims to enhance the seismic hazard framework for the Middle East. As one of the key collaborators, GEM contributed advanced modelling techniques, reinforcing its commitment to supporting disaster risk reduction efforts globally. GEM extends its gratitude to the ASC organisers and participants for a highly engaging event. The foundation looks forward to leveraging insights from the meeting to advance its mission of promoting seismic resilience globally. For more information about the previous version of the hazard model for the region, visit Middle East Hazard Model (v2016.1.0) . Further details about ASC 2024 can be found on the ASC Congress Website . No images found. GALLERY 1/9 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

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News 15 Years of GEM: Transforming the Latest Science into Action for a Safer World By: Mar 27, 2024 Mar 9, 2024 Share Facebook LinkedIn March 9, 2024. Pavia, Italy. "Fifteen years ago, the GEM Foundation embarked on a visionary journey – to equip communities worldwide with the knowledge and tools needed to understand and reduce earthquake risks, building a safer future. We would like to express deep gratitude to our past leaders, remarkable team, local partners, and supporters for working together with us on the assessment of global seismic risk. Pioneering open-source tools and fostering global collaboration, we have supported communities around the world in making informed decisions and building earthquake resilience." - Helen Crowley, GEM Secretary General. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbHTuZVA0Jg Building a Foundation for Global Resilience Since its inception in 2009, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation has been at the forefront of seismic risk reduction efforts worldwide. With a mission to enhance understanding and resilience against earthquakes and other natural hazards, GEM has catalysed transformative change through its collaborative approach and innovative solutions. In the coming years, the organisation further plans to expand its focus to include secondary hazards often triggered by earthquakes, such as liquefaction and landslides, and to work closely with neighbouring communities including the Global Tsunami Model. These advances demonstrate GEM's commitment to increasing global resilience to natural hazards through continuous scientific improvements and collaborations. A GEM Timeline! #GEM15 : 15 Years of Advancing Earthquake Resilience! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HZFlUAE1A0 Messages from present and past leaders The development of the ‘Global Earthquake Model’, a comprehensive collaborative framework for assessing earthquake hazard and risk, has led to the mosaic of global seismic hazard and risk models, providing stakeholders with a standardised approach to evaluate earthquake risks at a global scale. This collaborative approach, bringing together a diverse array of stakeholders, including scientists, engineers, decision-makers, and communities, has promoted a culture of open collaboration and knowledge sharing. This has led to the development of ground-breaking open-source tools, such as the OpenQuake Engine, and open data, such as the Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Maps, empowering stakeholders with the resources needed to assess and mitigate earthquake risk effectively. Strengthening Communities Through Strategic Initiatives From regional and national hazard and risk assessments in South America, Central America and the Caribbean, Europe, Africa, Middle East and Central Asia, South Asia, Southeast and East Asia, the Pacific and Oceania, to capacity-building workshops reaching over 1,500 participants worldwide, GEM has played a crucial role in equipping communities and decision-makers with the knowledge and tools necessary for effective earthquake risk assessment and mitigation. This dedication is further recognised by Ms. Paola Albrito, Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction and Director of UNDRR, who stated, “We congratulate GEM on its 15th anniversary and thank it for its pioneering work in helping countries understand and act on the risk of earthquakes.” UNDRR Preventionweb recently collaborated to promote over 200 GEM country seismic risk profiles on Preventionweb portal. (see related article here ) Towards a Safer Tomorrow: GEM's Ongoing Initiatives and Innovations As GEM looks towards the future, it remains steadfast in its commitment to advancing and applying the science of seismic risk reduction (watch: GEM's Vision for a Resilient Future: Insights from Helen Crowley), addressing emerging issues ranging from rapid urbanisation to the optimal use of Artificial Intelligence, through continued collaboration, innovation, and capacity building initiatives. GEM seeks to equip communities to build a safer and more resilient future, prioritising inclusivity and accessibility to ensure its resources reach those who need them most, especially in vulnerable regions. Here's to the next 15 years and beyond, as we strive towards a safer, more resilient world, together. Join us in building a safer future. Visit our website to learn more and get involved: www.globalquakemodel.org No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2017 | Peer-reviewed Using a score to generalize the model performance into one numeric value has been one of the most popular approaches to empirically evaluate ground‐motion models (GMMs). This approach has an advantage of simplifying model comparison. We study the effects of data correlation and score variability on the evaluation of GMMs. Most modern GMMs are hierarchical, in which ground motions from the same earthquake are modeled as correlated. We demonstrate, with examples, that incorrect results could occur if such hierarchical GMMs are evaluated by a score that does not duly address the data correlation. We propose to use the multivariate logarithmic score, a natural extension of the widely used univariate logarithmic score (referred to as LLH in the seismological literature), to correctly score hierarchical GMMs. The score variability affects the interpretation of model ranking. We demonstrate that the cluster bootstrap is a better bootstrap strategy, compared with other strategies proposed in the literature, to study the score variability. The bootstrap allows computing two useful quantities: the distinctness index that indicates if two models are truly different given the score variability and the frequency weight, a data‐driven weighting scheme that represents the frequentist’s interpretation of the weight of a logic‐tree branch. The frequency weight has a direct link to the current practice of using multiple GMMs in a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment.

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News Media update: New global earthquake hazard, risk, liquefaction and carbon resources now available By: Jun 30, 2026 Jun 30, 2026 Share Facebook LinkedIn The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation has released four new global resources on earthquake hazard, risk, infrastructure exposure and the carbon consequences of earthquake damage. Presented at GEM Conference 2026 in Zagreb on 23 June, the resources combine global, regional and national scientific models to help researchers, public authorities, infrastructure planners, insurers and other users understand where earthquake impacts may be greatest - and how those impacts may change in the future. Global Seismic Hazard Map GEM’s updated Global Seismic Hazard Map is GEM's first probabilistic seismic hazard map to cover the entire globe, including the oceans. It brings together 31 inland seismic hazard models, three ocean models and two polar models. Around 200 million people live in areas where there is a 10% chance in 50 years of earthquake shaking strong enough to accelerate the ground sideways at more than half the force of gravity. This is a level of shaking that can cause severe damage to vulnerable buildings. Global Seismic Risk Map The updated Global Seismic Risk Model represents 1.7 billion buildings , home to around 8.2 billion people , and assesses potential earthquake impacts including economic losses, buildings destroyed, fatalities, homelessness and embodied-carbon loss. More than three in five people worldwide live in buildings with no seismic provisions. For the first time, the model also examines how earthquake risk could evolve by 2045 and 2065 under different development scenarios. These are not forecasts of future earthquakes; they show how changing populations, building stock and construction practices could affect future earthquake risk. Global Liquefaction Map GEM has assessed 17.5 million km of roads worldwide. Nearly one in every eight kilometres of the mapped road network is exposed to high earthquake shaking, while around 135,000 km are located in areas with severe liquefaction hazard. Liquefaction occurs when water-saturated ground loses strength during an earthquake. It can damage roads, bridges and underground services, disrupt evacuation and emergency routes, and delay recovery. In Japan, more than one quarter of the road network is located in areas with severe liquefaction hazard; in the Philippines, the figure is 16%. Global Seismic Embodied-Carbon Risk Map This new resource estimates the carbon footprint of earthquake damage and reconstruction. It does not refer to the energy buildings use in daily operation. Instead, it estimates the emissions associated with producing, transporting and installing materials needed to repair or rebuild damaged buildings. GEM estimates that earthquakes result in an average annual reconstruction footprint of around 17 million metric tonnes of CO₂e worldwide - roughly comparable to 85,000 transatlantic passenger flights . The findings show that earthquake resilience and climate objectives are closely linked: reducing building damage can also avoid substantial future reconstruction emissions. FOR JOURNALISTS Media resources: Product maps, posters, technical documentation and access details are available through the hyperlinked maps above. High-resolution map images and additional background can be arranged on request. Media contact: communication@globalquakemodel.org No images found. GALLERY GEM_Global_Seismic_Risk_Map_2026-1_losses.png GEM_Global_Seismic_Hazard_Map_2026-1.png GEM_Global_Exposure_Map_2026-1_occupants.png GEM_Global_Seismic_Risk_Map_2026-1_losses.png 1/10 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News SERA European Building Exposure Workshop: From European Hazard to Risk By: Apr 26, 2018 Share Facebook LinkedIn The EUCENTRE organized and hosted the European Building Exposure Workshop from 1st – 2nd March in Pavia as part of the Horizon 2020-funded SERA project, with the aim to review initial exposure models and their underlying assumptions for a number of countries in Europe. The workshop brought together experts with knowledge on the residential, commercial and industrial buildings in Europe, or who had developed country-wide building inventories for public or private seismic risk applications. The 2-day workshop facilitated by Helen Crowley - EUCENTRE-SERA, produced the following: - revised classification scheme that could be used for building types in Europe, insights into building practices and design codes from the participants’ respective countries, - mapping schemes for the distribution of building types across each country (residential, commercial and industrial), - identified assumptions on replacement costs and - areas of buildings and list of available sources of data on buildings from the participants’ countries. About 30 professional from various parts of Europe including GEM’s Vitor Silva - Seismic Risk Coordinator and Venetia Despotaki - Physical Risk Engineer participated in the workshop. The 2-day event covered a wide range of topics including filling out a comprehensive online questionnaire on building classification; and presentations on: - GEM’s Risk modelling framework by Vitor Silva;- Development of residential and non-residential exposure models in SERA and- Explanation of SERA preliminary mapping schemes by Venetia Despotaki. Other participants presented insights into building stock in Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Iceland, and France. The SERA project is collaborating closely with the GEM Foundation (Global Earthquake Model) to: develop a European Risk Modelling framework that brings together the strengths of previous projects such as SHARE, NERA and fills in the research gaps; integrate knowledge and data from other SERA working packages; and build on the risk assessment framework and software developed by GEM. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News Scientific Collaboration a vital element for productivity By: May 21, 2020 Share Facebook LinkedIn In this story, GEM interviewed Phil Cummins of Geoscience Australia to get to know how he got started with earthquake hazard and risk modelling, his insights, perspectives on the impact of GEM on earthquake hazard model development, the importance of supporting GEM initiatives and the importance of its work especially in places in the world where earthquake risk is very much underappreciated. Here’s an excerpt from his interview entitled: Scientific Collaboration a vital element for productivity. “GEM impacted the way we do work at Geoscience Australia because our partnership with GEM allowed us to focus more on the quality of our data and our data analysis rather than the software development. And this really resulted in a dramatic improvement in the Australian earthquake hazard model.” - Phil Cummins The full story is available at https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gemstories/scientific-collaboration-a-vital-element-for-productivity . If you're a GEM partner and have a story to share that leverages GEM products and expert advice; or concretely showcases GEM impact or use of GEM products in your organization, email us at communication@globalquakemodel.org. We would love to feature your success stories! No images found. GALLERY 1/3 Gallery VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News GEM and Aon to Collaborate on the Development of a New Earthquake Model for Canada By: Mar 6, 2019 Share Facebook LinkedIn GEM and Aon’s Impact Forecasting catastrophe model development team have signed a partnership agreement to develop a new earthquake model for Canada based on global collaborative science and the latest publicly available data and information from Natural Resources Canada (NRCan). The new model is expected to be available towards the end of 2019. The partnership will help gain deeper understanding of earthquake risk in Canada. The new model will allow insurance underwriters to more accurate pricing of their insurance products as well as effectively manage their portfolios. Consumers will also benefit because the model is based on openly available data and assumptions that are fully transparent to everyone. The model will be implemented in Impact Forecasting’s risk modeling platform – ELEMENTS – as well as Oasis-based platforms. Impact Forecasting will support the use of the model in the Canadian market, which includes deployment, training and ongoing support. “GEM and Aon both value the importance of transparent and open hazard and risk modeling. We believe that this approach is key to better technical understanding of risk, and directly supports GEM’s initiative to promote the sharing of high quality open risk information globally,” said John Schneider, GEM Secretary General. “We have chosen to partner with GEM because of its global reputation for open and high-quality science and engineering-based risk modelling, combined with their close collaboration with Natural Resources Canada. In addition we are excited to bring enhanced understanding of this earthquake risk to the insurance industry with a goal of ultimately increasing resilience across Canada,” added Adam Podlaha, Head of Aon’s Impact Forecasting team. The model is being developed in phases starting with earthquake shaking including liquefaction, tsunami and other secondary perils. Tsunami modeling will be implemented in collaboration with University College London (UCL). The proposed modeling solution from Impact Forecasting will be based on GEM’s earthquake risk model for Canada, developed in collaboration with NRCan, which officially joined GEM as a public sponsor last year. NRCan leads a consortium of Canadian organizations including Public Safety Canada, Insurance Bureau of Canada, Defence Research and Development Canada, as well as academic and planning professionals. Phil Hill, Director, Geological Survey of Canada-Pacific (NRCan), and GEM Governing Board member for Canada, commented, “The GEM-IF Canada earthquake risk model is an important step in making credible and open disaster risk information available and accessible in Canada.” No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News Inception of DRR-pathways project in Vancouver, Canada By: Mar 21, 2019 Share Facebook LinkedIn On 15 February in Vancouver, Canada, GEM sponsor Natural Resources Canada held the project inception meeting for “DR Pathways: Incentives for mitigation & adaptation investments”. The three-year project, funded by the Canadian Safety and Security Program, aims to re-frame the risk assessment process around risk reduction strategies (planning scenarios) that will lead to proactive investment in mitigation and adaptation. Specific project objectives are to: Increase capabilities to model systemic risk and disaster recovery; Enable an evidence-based approach to disaster resilience planning; and Strengthen risk governance through knowledge exchange and community engagement. Present at the meeting were project participants from Natural Resources Canada (notably Phil Hill, GEM GB representative and Project Champion, and Murray Journeay, GEM Outstanding Award recipient), City of Vancouver, Emergency Management British Columbia, Fraser Basin Council, University of Victoria, and other local, regional and national organizations involved in risk assessment and resilience planning. The main purpose of the meeting was to introduce all of the project partners, establish the project governance structure, and to clarify the scope and timeline. Key outcomes of the meeting were: agreement on the guiding principles, adapted from GEM’s platform: open, collaborative, public good and credible; establishment of the Steering Committee (with Chair, Kathryn Forge, Emergency Management British Columbia); and results of brainstorming amongst participants regarding the selection of flood and earthquake impact scenarios for 1) post disaster response and recovery and 2) risk reduction and resilience planning. According to Murray Journeay, who led the development of the proposal, “This project will benefit from GEM’s global leadership in developing the methodology and tools for integrated risk assessment and using this approach to develop a more holistic and empowering view of systemic risk.” The meeting was an excellent forum for exchanging ideas among scientists/engineers, emergency managers and policy makers, on how to develop and integrate risk information to inform the emergency management and planning process through a systemic and holistic approach. GEM looks forward to working with all of the local, regional, provincial and national organizations to make this project an outstanding success. No images found. GALLERY 1/4 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS