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The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation has released four new global resources on earthquake hazard, risk, infrastructure exposure and the carbon consequences of earthquake damage.

Presented at GEM Conference 2026 in Zagreb on 23 June, the resources combine global, regional and national scientific models to help researchers, public authorities, infrastructure planners, insurers and other users understand where earthquake impacts may be greatest - and how those impacts may change in the future.

Global Seismic Hazard Map

GEM’s updated Global Seismic Hazard Map is GEM's first probabilistic seismic hazard map to cover the entire globe, including the oceans. It brings together 31 inland seismic hazard models, three ocean models and two polar models.

Around 200 million people live in areas where there is a 10% chance in 50 years of earthquake shaking strong enough to accelerate the ground sideways at more than half the force of gravity. This is a level of shaking that can cause severe damage to vulnerable buildings.

Global Seismic Risk Map

The updated Global Seismic Risk Model represents 1.7 billion buildings, home to around 8.2 billion people, and assesses potential earthquake impacts including economic losses, buildings destroyed, fatalities, homelessness and embodied-carbon loss.

More than three in five people worldwide live in buildings with no seismic provisions. For the first time, the model also examines how earthquake risk could evolve by 2045 and 2065 under different development scenarios. These are not forecasts of future earthquakes; they show how changing populations, building stock and construction practices could affect future earthquake risk.

Global Liquefaction Map

GEM has assessed 17.5 million km of roads worldwide. Nearly one in every eight kilometres of the mapped road network is exposed to high earthquake shaking, while around 135,000 km are located in areas with severe liquefaction hazard.

Liquefaction occurs when water-saturated ground loses strength during an earthquake. It can damage roads, bridges and underground services, disrupt evacuation and emergency routes, and delay recovery. In Japan, more than one quarter of the road network is located in areas with severe liquefaction hazard; in the Philippines, the figure is 16%.

Global Seismic Embodied-Carbon Risk Map

This new resource estimates the carbon footprint of earthquake damage and reconstruction. It does not refer to the energy buildings use in daily operation. Instead, it estimates the emissions associated with producing, transporting and installing materials needed to repair or rebuild damaged buildings.

GEM estimates that earthquakes result in an average annual reconstruction footprint of around 17 million metric tonnes of CO₂e worldwide - roughly comparable to 85,000 transatlantic passenger flights. The findings show that earthquake resilience and climate objectives are closely linked: reducing building damage can also avoid substantial future reconstruction emissions.

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Media resources:

Product maps, posters, technical documentation and access details are available through the hyperlinked maps above. High-resolution map images and additional background can be arranged on request.

Media contact:

communication@globalquakemodel.org