Projects METEOR Modelling Exposure Through Earth Observation Routines (METEOR) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Background At present, there is a poor understanding of population exposure in some Official Development Assistance (ODA) countries, which causes major challenges when making Disaster Risk Management decisions. Modelling Exposure Through Earth Observation Routines (METEOR) takes a step-change in the application of Earth Observation exposure data by developing and delivering more accurate levels of population exposure to natural hazards. Providing new consistent data to governments, town planners and insurance providers will promote welfare and economic development in these countries and better enable them to respond to the hazards when they do occur. Objectives METEOR aims to formulate an innovative methodology of creating exposure data through the use of EO-based imagery to identify development patterns throughout a country. Stratified sampling technique harnessing traditional land use interpretation methods modified to characterise building patterns can be combined with EO and in-field building characteristics to capture the distribution of building types. These protocols and standards will be developed for broad application to ODA countries and will be tested and validated for both Nepal and Tanzania to assure they are fit-for-purpose. Objectives of the project look to: deliver exposure data for 47 of the least developed ODA countries, including Nepal and Tanzania; create hazard footprints for the specific countries; create open protocol; to develop critical exposure information from EO data; and capacity-building of local decision makers to apply data and assess hazard exposure. Collaborators METEOR Project Consortium The British Geological Survey (BGS) ImageCat National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET) The Disaster Management Department-Tanzania The Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) Oxford Policy Management Limited (OPM) Fathom Location Nepal, Tanzania For more details on the METEOR Project, click read more below to visit the website. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anirudh and Nicole will be producing vulnerability data for different building types to different hazards for Nepal and Tanzania. About 20 project participants from GEM, Tanzania Prime Minister’s Office-Disaster Management Department (DMD), NSET, BGS, HOT OSM, ImageCat and OPM... Modelling Exposure Through Earth Observation Routines: EO-based Exposure, Nepal and Tanzania granted by the UK Space Agency Anirudh Rao and Nicole Paul participated in the quarterly UK Space Agency #METEOR Project meeting and workshops in Kathmandu, Nepal. Anchor3 Publications To download the METEOR Project official deliverables documents, click the Read More button below.

Projects Proyecto TREQ Comunicación y Formación en la Evaluación de Riesgos por Terremotos (TREQ) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Visión general Resultados Capacitación Comunicación Fotos Publicaciones Anchor 6 Resumen El Proyecto de Capacitación y Comunicación para la Evaluación de Riesgos de Terremotos (TREQ) fue diseñado para demostrar cómo la evaluación de la amenaza y el riesgo sísmico puede informar a los tomadores de decisiones en el desarrollo de políticas de reducción de riesgos, así como también cómo se puede comunicar adecuadamente el riesgo de terremotos a las partes interesadas y al público en general. [PDF Executive Summary English ] Objetivos El proyecto se organizó en dos partes principales. El primero tuvo como objetivo desarrollar la capacidad para la evaluación de la amenaza y el riesgo sísmico a nivel urbano en América Latina, Quito (Ecuador), Cali (Colombia) y Santiago de los Caballeros (República Dominicana); mientras que la segunda parte fue desarrollar material de capacitación, educación y comunicación para mejorar la comprensión del riesgo de terremotos en todo el mundo. El programa se diseñó para un amplio espectro de partes interesadas, categorizadas en cuatro grupos principales: gobierno(tomadores de decisiones/autoridades públicas), industria (practicantes y profesionales), academia (investigadores y profesores) y la comunidad. Ecuador Municipalidad de Quito Escuela Politécnica Nacional (EPN) Instituto Geofísico (IG) Colegio de Ingenieros Civiles de Pichincha (CICP) Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador Dominican Republic Servicio Geológico Nacional (SGN) Oficina Nacional de Evaluación Sísmica y Vulnerabilidad de Infraestructuras y Edificaciones (ONESVIE) Comité Técnico Nacional (CTN) Pontificia Universidad Católica Madre y Maestra (PUCMM) Colombia Servicio Geológico Colombiano (SGC) Departamento Administrativo de Planeación Municipal (DAPM), Cali Unidad Nacional de Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres (UNGRD) Universidad EAFIT, Medellin Costa Rica Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR) Mexico Universidad Autónoma de Baja California (UABC) Ubicación Quito (Ecuador), Cali (Colombia) y Santiago de los Caballeros (República Dominicana) Evaluación del riesgo urbano en América Latina y el Caribe En este componente se generaron los siguientes entregables: evaluación de amenaza y riesgo sísmico a escala urbana para las tres ciudades TREQ: Quito (Ecuador), Cali (Colombia) y Santiago de los Caballeros (República Dominicana). Se desarrollaron modelos de vanguardia para cada ciudad en estrecha colaboración con socios locales. Los modelos de entrada y los resultados están disponibles en la siguiente dirección URL: [github.com/gem/treq-riesgo-urbano/ ] a. Informes de la ciudad Evaluación de Riesgo Sísmico para el Distrito Metropolitano de Quito [Español ] Evaluación de Riesgo Sísmico para Santiago de Cali [Español ] Evaluación de Riesgo Sísmico para Santiago de los Caballeros [Español ] b. Evaluación de peligros sísmicos Modelos probabilísticos de amenaza sísmica (PSHA) y conjuntos de datos para la evaluación de la amenaza a nivel urbano [PDF English ] Modelo Probabilístico de Amenaza Sísmica para la República Dominicana [PDF English | Español ] [Descargar Modelo ] Resultados de amenaza sísmica (condiciones en roca y en suelo [PDF English ] Análisis de la amenaza sísmica a escala urbana [PDF English ] c. Evaluación de Riesgo Sísmico Resumen ejecutivo sobre la evaluación del riesgo sísmico urbano para las ciudades de Quito, Cali y Santiago de los Caballeros [PDF English ] Tipologías constructivas en Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros [PDF Español ] Base de datos de exposición georreferenciada de población y edificios en cada ciudad de TREQ [Cali ] [Quito ] [Santiago ] Base de datos de funciones de fragilidad y vulnerabilidad para cada clase de edificio presente en el modelo de exposición [Datos ] Mapas y métricas de riesgo para cada ciudad [Cali ] [Quito ] [Santiago ] d. Escenarios de la ciudad Base de datos con rupturas seleccionadas para análisis de escenarios [Cali ] [Quito ] [Santiago ] Evaluación del escenarios de amenaza para sismos representativos en Quito, Cali y Santiago de los Caballeros [PDF English ] e. Aplicaciones Urbanas Deslizamientos y licuefacción inducidos por sismo en Cali [PDF English ] Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Mejora de la comprensión mundial sobre la amenaza y riesgo sísmico Esta parte del programa fue diseñada para mejorar la comprensión y el conocimiento de la amenaza y el riesgo sísmico, y para ayudar a cerrar la brecha entre la información producida en estudios detallados de amenaza y riesgo y su comunicación a una amplia variedad de partes interesadas (que van desde locales expertos con competencias para evaluar el riesgo sísmico, a los tomadores de decisiones responsables de la implementación de medidas de reducción del riesgo). a. Sitio web para la capacitación en línea de OpenQuake La capacitación en línea de OpenQuake se diseñó para diferentes tipos de audiencia con diversos antecedentes y experiencia. A través de esta plataforma, los participantes interactuaron con los equipos científicos y técnicos del GEM para conocer los principales conceptos de la evaluación del riesgo sísmico, así como las características básicas del software de OpenQuake. [English | Español ] b. Manual de OpenQuake en formato online El manual oficial se convirtió de látex al formato reStructuredText gracias al apoyo de @USAID. El nuevo manual está ahora en línea en formato HTML y se puede accederse en: [Webpage English ] c. Tutoriales en video sobre peligros sísmicos y análisis de riesgos usando OpenQuake El proyecto ha producido 15 videos de capacitación técnica utilizando el software de OpenQuake (en inglés y español), 7 videos con material para difundir los modelos y resultados de la evaluación del riesgo urbano en las ciudades TREQ y 2 videos para comunicar el riesgo sísmico al público en general. público. OQ Engine Video Tutorials [ English | Español ] d. Manual para realizar análisis de amenaza sísmica Este manual presenta los conceptos básicos de la metodología clásica de PSHA y el amplio espectro de alternativas para modelar la sismicidad y las incertidumbres (epistémicas y aleatorias) en el software de OpenQuake. La evaluación probabilística del peligro sísmico (PSHA) es la metodología principal para evaluar el peligro potencial que representan los terremotos. Los mapas de amenaza se utilizan ampliamente en los códigos sísmicos nacionales para la zonificación de la amenaza sísmica y las disposiciones de diseño estructural. [PDF English ] e. Capacitando a educadores TREQ ha colaborado con cinco profesores universitarios de América Latina para conceptualizar, crear e implementar un curso unificado para el estudio del riesgo sísmico a nivel universitario. Los folletos en inglés y español explican con más detalle el concepto detrás de esta iniciativa y describen los primeros resultados y experiencias de los profesores de Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala y México. [PDF English | Español ] Anchor 4 Comunicación y sensibilización sobre terremotos Las actividades de este componente se centraron en sensibilizar al público sobre la amenaza y el riesgo sísmico mediante la capacitación de un grupo diverso de profesionales en reducción del riesgo de desastres (RRD), junto con el personal a cargo de comunicar los riesgos al público, y mediante la realización de talleres comunitarios en áreas seleccionadas de las ciudades piloto. Artículos de noticias Eventos El seminario web Comprensión del riesgo sísmico a través del desarrollo de capacidades y el intercambio de conocimientos atrae a cientos de participantes de todo el mundo. [Article ] [Event page English | Español ] [Video ] Presentación del modelo PSHA nacional para la República Dominicana: un seminario web conjunto organizado por el Servicio Geológico Nacional Dominicano en cooperación con GEM, Oficina Nacional de Evaluación Sísmica y Vulnerabilidad de Infraestructura y la Oficina de Asistencia Humanitaria de USAID. [Event flyer Español ] [Video English | Español ] ---- Artículos Raising Earthquake Risk Awareness: TREQ’s community workshops for the general public Urban hazard assessment of selected cities in Latin America Local solutions to global problems: reducing disaster risk through collaboration and openness TREQ Project Updates: Site Effects Modelling and Urban Exposure Models USGS has joined the TREQ initiative for urban earthquake scenarios TREQ capacity building: OQ online training updates Jan-Feb 2021 TREQ2020 – Capacity development and OpenQuake online training, year in review TREQ OpenQuake Online Training: Earthquake Scenarios - Ground Motion Fields Sept 2020 Más en la sección GEM News a. Material didáctico para sensibilizar a la comunidad sobre el riesgo sísmico: Aplicación para el área Metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá (AMVA) [PDF Español ] b. Video para comunicar el riesgo de terremoto al público en general [English | Español ] c. Guía para profesores para el desarrollo de un curso introductorio de riesgo sísmico [PDF Español ] d. Perfiles de respuesta y mitigación de riesgos urbanos para las ciudades TREQ [Cali ] [Quito ] [Santiago ] Boletin informativo El boletín del proyecto TREQ tiene la intención de compartir actividades en evaluación de riesgos urbanos y materiales de capacitación y educación sobre riesgos de terremotos con una amplia gama de partes interesadas locales de la academia, los sectores público y privado, así como la sociedad civil en América Latina,el Caribe, y más allá. Newsletter no. 3 - May 2021 Newsletter no. 2 - September 2020 Newsletter no. 1 - March 2020 Maiden issue [English ] Maiden issue [Españo ] Anchor3 BUSINESS NEWS Concientizando el Riesgo: talleres para el público en general 1/4 BUSINESS NEWS Inicio del proyecto de marzo de 2020 1/4 BUSINESS NEWS Fotos de la formación OpenQuake Online de noviembre de 2020 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS Reuniones en Quito 1/10 BUSINESS NEWS Reuniones en Guayaquil 1/1 Publications Visión general TREQ Resumen Ejecutivo [English ] Evaluación de la amenaza sísmica Modelos probabilísticos de amenaza sísmica (PSHA) y conjuntos de datos para la evaluación de la amenaza a nivel urbano [English ] Modelo Probabilístico de Amenaza Sísmica para la República Dominicana [English | Español ] [Descargar Modelo ] Resultados de amenaza sísmica (condiciones en roca y en suelo [English ] Análisis de la amenaza sísmica a escala urbana [English ] Evaluación de Riesgo Sísmico Resumen ejecutivo sobre la evaluación del riesgo sísmico urbano para las ciudades de Quito, Cali y Santiago de los Caballeros [English ] Tipologías constructivas en Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros [Español ] Escenarios sísmicos Evaluación del escenarios de amenaza para sismos representativos en Quito, Cali y Santiago de los Caballeros [English ] Aplicaciones urbanas Deslizamientos y licuefacción inducidos por sismo en Cali [English ] Informes de la ciudad Evaluación de Riesgo Sísmico para el Distrito Metropolitano de Quito [Español ] Evaluación de Riesgo Sísmico para Santiago de Cali [Español ] Evaluación de Riesgo Sísmico para Santiago de los Caballeros [Español ] Formación y comunicación del riesgo sísmico Manual de capacitación sobre análisis probabilístico de riesgos sísmicos (PSHA) [English ] Material didáctico para sensibilizar a la comunidad sobre el riesgo sísmico. Aplicación para el área Metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá (AMVA) [Español ] Guía para profesores para el desarrollo de un curso introductorio de riesgo sísmico [Español ] Disclaimer The contents of this project website such as studies, reports, audio-visual, news articles, blogs, and other information or media products including those in the external links are made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

Projects PAPERS Piattaforma Analisi Pericolosità E Rischio Sismico Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation has launched the PAPERS project (Piattaforma Analisi Pericolosità E Rischio Sismico), an initiative aimed at developing a new WebGIS platform for scenario hazard and risk assessment in Italy. The project has been funded as one of the cascade grants launched by the High-Performance Computing, Big Data e Quantum Computing Research Centre, one of the five National Centres established by the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), under Spoke 5 - Environment and Natural Disasters . The first training workshop of the project related to the use of the OpenQuake engine was successfully conducted online on April 1st, 2025, marking the first in a series of planned training events. This first workshop also served for exploring potential third-party contributions to models that could be integrated into the platform. Objectives PAPERS will enhance seismic risk assessment in Italy through advanced computational techniques and open-source models and tools. The project is organised into three modules, each focusing on a critical objective. The first module involves building the operational platform, leveraging the OpenQuake (OQ) Engine. The integration of High-Performance Computing (HPC) will facilitate complex analyses, while interoperability with external software will streamline data management. The second module focuses on updating Italy’s national exposure models. This involves compiling databases of buildings, critical infrastructure, and distributed networks at different geographic scales in the country. The project will integrate existing models with newly available datasets. This effort will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the seismic vulnerability of the Italian-built environment. As part of the third module, the platform will feature preloaded models of seismic hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, along with a range of earthquake scenarios, including historical earthquakes and events from a stochastic catalog based on the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20). Alternative risk mitigation strategies will also be explored through dedicated multi-criteria decision-making approaches. Collaborators Project Coordination: Fondazione GEM (Global Earthquake Model Foundation) Main Collaborating Institution: Università degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro Funding Agency: The project is funded under the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), Mission 4, "Education and Research" - Component 2, "From Research to Business" - Investment Line 1.4, supported by NextGenerationEU. Locations Pilot Site for Seismic Risk Analysis: An Italian city to be determined during the project, intended as a demonstration case for urban-scale seismic risk analysis. Testing Locations: The project will involve data collection and analysis on a national scale across Italy. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects AELO ASCE Earthquake Loads Overseas (AELO) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The project is carried out within a collaboration between GEM and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and is sponsored by the U.S. Department of State (DoS) and the U.S. Department of Defence (DoD). The aim of the project is to provide a web service for computing design ground motions (on rock and soil) that are compliant with the ASCE guidelines (ASCE 7-16, ASCE 41-17, ASCE 7-22, ASCE 41-23) for 500 locations worldwide. In its inaugural year, AELO focuses on rigorously calculating seismic parameters, including Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Ss, and S1 design values across 500 diverse global locations, particularly emphasizing rock site conditions. This aims to ensure compliance with ASCE7-16 and ASCE41-17 standards, essential for seismic assessment and design practices. In the following year, the project progresses to establish a secure webservice for computing design ground motions. This password-protected platform will provide access to ASCE7-16 and ASCE41-17 aligned calculations, simplifying access to these critical seismic design parameters. Transitioning into the third year, AELO expands its computational scope to encompass ground motion calculations across various soil conditions worldwide, encompassing 500 locations to adhere to ASCE 7-22 and ASCE 41-23 standards. This phase seeks to enhance the breadth of seismic assessments, offering a comprehensive understanding of seismic hazards on diverse soil types. Finally, in its fourth year, the project concludes with the introduction of a sophisticated, password-protected webservice. This platform offers the capability to compute design ground motions based on the latest ASCE7-22 and ASCE41-23 standards, supporting seismic engineers and researchers globally by providing accurate, standardized, and essential seismic design parameters for diverse geographical locations. Duration: 2022 - 2026 Objectives The primary objective of the project is to create a web service capable of calculating design ground motions, both on rock and soil, in adherence to the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) guidelines. These guidelines include ASCE 7-16, ASCE 41-17, ASCE 7-22, and ASCE 41-23. This web service heavily relies on the hazard models that are part of GEM’s global mosaic and the OpenQuake Engine. Collaborators GEM, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with support from the U.S. Department of State (DoS) and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). Location Global (Washington DC, USA) Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects READY2RESPOND Rapid Diagnostic in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background Ready2Respond (R2R) is a rapid diagnostic guide, designed to improve national, sub-national and city resilience mechanisms and to protect development gains through investments in emergency preparedness and response systems. It is informed by the World Bank Group (WBG) City Resilience Program (CRP) and other WBG resilience platforms. In this project R2R is applied to the Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh states in the Himalayan region of India. The GEM Risk Team contributes to the project by providing: Literature review and stakeholder mapping around hazard and risk initiatives, risk data and models for both states Provision of seismic hazard/risk model outputs and related descriptive information for both states (to support diagnostic activities) Review of legal regulation of the built environment and associated initiatives Review of seismic preparedness of the critical infrastructure defined in the project Preparation and remote input into stakeholder workshops Duration: 2023 Objectives This project responds to the need to provide effective and comprehensive diagnosis of the Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh states’ emergency preparedness and response systems in the Himalayan region of India. This enables the World Bank and the government to tailor investments to strengthen institutional capacity and capability, ensure public safety, and limit economic disruption in the face of multiple, and often cascading, geological and hydrometeorological hazards. Collaborators GEM Foundation, JBA Consulting, Geo Climate Risk Solutions (GCRS) Funding partner: World Bank Group Location India Himalayas Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects HORUS Horus: Pilot for a generic damage evaluation methodology based on remote-sensing data Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background Horus is a pilot project that explores the combination of high-resolution building inventory data from OpenStreetMap and other local sources with image-processing algorithms for the detection of earthquake damage and flood extents using remote-sensing data, along with supplementary geospatial datasets as inputs to a machine learning (ML) classification model. The ML model is trained using detailed building damage datasets from past events in a supervised learning framework, and the trained model is intended to be used to estimate the extent of damage and loss in events previously unseen by the model. The proposed framework is applied in three case study applications: March 2020 Mw5.3 Zagreb earthquake; January 2020 Mw6.4 Puerto Rico earthquake and August 2016 Louisiana floods. The GEM Risk Team is responsible for the overall coordination of the project involving multiple partners, compilation of building-level earthquake damage datasets, development of the ML models, and training and testing of the models. Duration: 2020 Objectives This pilot project, initiated and funded by the World Bank, aims to develop a framework for semi-automated damage and loss assessment due to earthquake and floods from Earth Observation (EO) data and other supplementary datasets, while also leveraging recent advances in machine-learning algorithms. These damage and loss estimates can potentially be used for transparent financial compensation and to target the distribution of resources geographically and temporally. Collaborators Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) team at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and California Institute of Technology (Caltech), the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, JBA Risk, and the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) Funding partner: World Bank Group Locations Earthquake case studies: Gorkha, Nepal; Puebla, Mexico; Puerto Rico, United States; Zagreb, Croatia Flood case study: Louisiana, United States Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects BACK TO NORMAL Earthquake Recovery Modelling Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background To address some of the key factors that influence recovery following a potentially devastating earthquake, the Alfred E. Alquist Seismic Safety Commission (SSC) engaged the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) Foundation and the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, a) to develop a methodology and an open-source and transparent software tool to estimate recovery states and recovery times following an earthquake; and b) to investigate the effect of external socio-economic factors on these recovery times. Objectives This project achieved the following main objectives: 1. Development of a user-friendly, non-commercial and transparent software tool, herein referred as the Integrated Risk Modelling Toolkit (IRMT), to make map-based comparisons showing the effect of different resilient actions on the recovery times. 2. Development of an analytic methodology, referred as the Reconstruction Recovery Model, to estimate post-earthquake recovery 3. Integration of the Reconstruction Recovery Model for practical use into GEM’s OpenQuake modelling platform. 4. Demonstration of reasonable results by using the methodologies to model past earthquakes. In this context, the 2014 M6 South Napa Earthquake was used as a case study. Collaborators Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) Location California, United States Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects COMET GEM COMET-GEM Central Asia Seismic Hazard Project Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background Since 2021, COMET and GEM have partnered to integrate the latest advancements in earthquake science into seismic hazard and risk modeling. The first phase of the collaboration (2020–2022) focused on building essential datasets, including an active fault database, a homogenized earthquake catalog, GNSS data, and a preliminary seismic hazard model for Central Asia. The ongoing second phase (2023–2025), supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), UK, expands on these efforts by incorporating time-dependent hazard modeling, earthquake clustering analysis, and geodetic data processing. By bridging scientific research with practical applications, the collaboration ensures that hazard models remain at the forefront of earthquake risk assessment, strengthening disaster preparedness efforts in Central Asia and beyond. Duration: Phase 1: 2021 -2023, Phase 2: 2023 - 2025 More details: https://comet.nerc.ac.uk/ Overall Objective The COMET-GEM collaboration aims to develop an advanced, publicly accessible seismic hazard and risk model for Central Asia, integrating cutting-edge scientific methods such as satellite geodesy, palaeoseismology, and geodetic data analysis. The goal is to provide local communities, researchers, and policymakers with robust hazard and risk assessments to inform disaster risk reduction strategies and enhance preparedness for future seismic events. Specific Objectives / Expected Outputs 1. Enhancing Seismic Hazard Models Refining fault databases, earthquake catalogs, and strain rate fields to improve hazard predictions. Incorporating time-dependent earthquake occurrence models and earthquake clustering analysis to improve forecasting. 2. Integrating Advanced Scientific Techniques Utilizing InSAR-based deformation data and GNSS datasets to quantify seismic strain accumulation across Central Asia. Developing high-resolution geodetic velocity fields for improved hazard modeling. 3. Supporting Disaster Risk Reduction Integrating hazard models into seismic risk assessments to estimate economic and human losses. Engaging local communities and stakeholders in seismic hazard model development. 4. Collaborative Research and Capacity Building Hosting workshops and training sessions to enhance regional expertise in seismic hazard assessment. Supporting research collaborations in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and beyond. Collaborators Project Coordination: COMET and GEM, with contributions from UK-based institutions Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation COMET (Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes & Tectonics) British Geological Survey (BGS) University of Oxford (geologic data compilation) University of Leeds (geodetic data processing) Various local and international research institutions Funding Partner: Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), UK Locations Primary Focus Region: Central Asia Additional Areas of Study: South Caucasus, Türkiye, Mongolia Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects BEYOND BUTTON PUSHING Earthquake Risk Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis for California Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The goal of the project was to show how important the quantification of uncertainty is in estimating and understanding California’s earthquake risk using OpenQuake - GEM Foundation’s state-of-the-art open source earthquake hazard and risk assessment software. With OpenQuake’s plug-and-play capabilities, expert users can individually select or substitute every model component, data, and assumption. This feature will help model users and decision makers to: 1) ‘ask the right questions’ when evaluating model results; 2) better interpret risk assessment results and gain trust in model results; and 3) make better risk management decisions. Duration: 2015-2017 Objectives The main objectives of this project are to: Establish representative sets of exposure: ‣ for the San Francisco Bay Area; ‣ for the Southern California region affected by the Shakeout Scenario Choose specific results (risk metrics) to use as a basis for comparison. Produce ‘baseline’ results from OpenQuake, using a ‘control’ set of assumptions. Undertake a thorough sensitivity analysis for the risk estimates for California based on the UCERF3 model by running OpenQuake multiple times, each time varying one assumption or parameter, such as: ‣ earthquake probabilities (controlled by assumptions about fault geometries, slip rates, maximum magnitudes); ‣ ground motion model selection; ‣ vulnerability functions; ‣ site conditions; and ‣ statistical treatment of uncertainty and correlation Beyond the aims stated at the outset of the project as listed above, several additional objectives were achieved during the course of the project, including the following: Implement within OpenQuake the latest seismic hazard model for California based on the recently published Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF3), produced by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. Calculate the average annual loss estimates for all 8,057 census tracts in California, using the seismic hazard model based on UCERF3. Establish the range (distribution) of scientifically viable results for the chosen risk metrics by accounting for the various uncertainties in the hazard model. Identify the components of the hazard model contributing most to the overall uncertainty in the risk metrics for the different exposure portfolios. Implement a model simplification (‘logic-tree trimming’) software tool to reduce the number of computer runs and greatly speed up the time required for running the risk model for California. Collaborators GEM Foundation Funding partner: Alfred E. Alquist Seismic Safety Commission (SSC) Location California, United States Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects GFDRR-DFID GFDRR-DFID Challenge Funds Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the UK Department for International Development's (DFID) competitive Challenge Fund pilots new and innovative approaches to overcoming technical and technological challenges in order to strengthen disaster and climate risk decision-making in developing countries. To this end, this project is supporting the development of data, products, and approaches to support disaster risk management decision-making and build resilience, including through better information, but also strengthening key steps in moving from information to insight and behaviour change. Each challenge is focusing on the development of a database with hazard footprints, exposure information and vulnerability models. The viability of the databases will be demonstrated using exposure data for Tanzania and another DFID priority country. Objectives The project is divided into three components. The British Geological Survey leads the development of a data schema and data for a multi-hazard database (Challenge 1) while GEM and University College London lead the development of a global exposure database (Challenge 2) and open vulnerability platform for evaluating risk (Challenge 3) respectively. GEM also contributes to Challenge Fund 1 and 3. GEM leads Challenge Fund 2 on the development of a global exposure data framework, which includes the physical vulnerability characteristics and exposure taxonomy. The aim is to identify the most important vulnerability characteristics; ways to account for uncertainties in exposure and vulnerability models; type of assets that should be supported by the vulnerability and exposure database; and the most common and useful intensity measure types. The objective of this project is to develop a Data Exploration Tool to promote the ability of a user to access, understand and use hazard, exposure and vulnerability data stored in a format that follows the data schema developed by the Challenge Fund consortia. British Geological Survey (BGS) leads the development of a data schema and data for a multi-hazard database (Challenge 1) GEM Foundation leads the development of a global exposure database (Challenge 2) University College London (UCL) leads the development of open vulnerability platform for evaluating risk (Challenge 3) Various organizations also participated and contributed to the project such as the Geological Survey of Tanzania; Ardhi University (Tanzania); Dar Es Salaam University (Tanzania); DFID Tanzania; Prime Minister's Office - Disaster Management Department (Tanzania); DoMA (Malawi); INGC (Mozambique); Ministry of Energy & Mineral Development (Uganda); ImageCat (USA); Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT Indonesia); NSET (Nepal); IDF (Switzerland); UA (Netherlands); NGI (Norway); NOC (UK); CIMA (Italy); and UCL-EPI (UK). Locations Tanzania and neighbouring countries Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 A consortium led by the GEM Foundation with partners ImageCat Inc. and the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team completed recently an open exposure database for multi-hazard risk assessment... The University College London (UCL) EPICentre and CatLin XL hosted the second workshop held on July 27 in London to collect feedback. The GFDRR-DFID Challenge Fund projects on the development of exposure, vulnerability and hazard footprints databases kicked off with a 2-day inception workshop. Anchor3 Publications GFDRR-DFID Challenge Funds Round 2 How can innovative approaches make communities more resilient to climate change and natural disasters? GFDRR-UK Aid Challenge Fund: Final Learning Report: Value of Risk Information for Decision Making May 31, 2018 Data schema and data: for multi-hazard database (BGS), for global exposure database (GEM), for a global database of vulnerability functions (UCL) Extensible Data Schemas for Multiple Hazards, Exposure and Vulnerability Data published as part of the UNDRR GAR2019 .