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  • Latest News | Global Earthquake Model Foundation | Italy

    More The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation TREQ Project, with support from USAID, presented the progress of the urban earthquake hazard and risk assessments, and capacity development efforts in Quito (Ecuador), Cali (Colombia) and Santiago de los Caballeros (Dominican Republic) on July 9th 2021 via Zoom webinar. Understanding seismic risk through capacity development and knowledge sharing webinar draws hundreds of participants from around the world TOP STORY LATEST UPDATES MORE NEWS Search Archive 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 ... 36 Local solutions to global problems: reducing disaster risk through collaboration and openness GEM and Willis renew partnership GEM releases a new toolkit, an open‑source platform for vulnerability analysis Willis Research Network Conference 2021 GEM and sponsors collaborate to develop an earthquake loss model for China Development of local capacities for risk assessment and management, key to sustainable and effective risk solutions

  • Local solutions to global problems: reducing disaster risk through collaboration and openness

    Latest News Local solutions to global problems: reducing disaster risk through collaboration and openness READ MORE Photo caption: TREQ Team meeting with engineers of the Municipality of Quito, Ecuador. GALLERY RELATED CONTENTS RELATED CONTENTS TREQ Team meeting with engineers of the Municipality of Quito, Ecuador. October 13, 2021. Pavia. The 2021 edition of IDDR Day focuses on ‘International cooperation for developing countries to reduce their disaster risk and disaster losses.’ - the sixth of the Sendai Seven targets. GEM’s work over the past decade in developing countries has accelerated the assessment of risk and incorporation of risk-based decisions into planning and sustainable development by merging the interests of public and private sectors, and collaborating with local governments. John Schneider, GEM Secretary General, underscores GEM’s collaborative and inclusive approach by saying that “GEM develops trust with local partners and stakeholders through projects that provide technical support and training on the use and application of GEM models, tools and methodologies. We ensure that local scientists, experts and local decision-makers are involved from the start.” Most recently, GEM’s Training and Communication for Earthquake Risk Assessment or TREQ Project, funded by USAID, has demonstrated this by GEM working together with local partners in building the capacity for urban earthquake risk assessment in Quito, Ecuador; Cali, Colombia; and Santiago de los Caballeros, Dominican Republic. Building on the success of GEM’s previous collaborative efforts in the South America Risk Assessment project (SARA 2013-2016) and Central America and the Caribbean Risk Assessment project (CCARA 2017-2018), the TREQ team, in collaboration with local experts, has updated the hazard and risk models of the pilot cities using more detailed hazard and risk information. Since 2020, the TREQ team has trained close to 400 individuals from almost 60 countries in using OpenQuake for urban earthquake hazard and risk assessments (https://www.training.openquake.org/ ). The project also produced training and educational materials that are being adapted for university courses through the project’s Training the Trainers component . The results* of the TREQ project will be released openly, and will be of interest to a wide-range of users – from risk analysts, emergency planners and managers to researchers, modelers and the public at large. The analysis methods and collaboration approach set the foundation for enhancing earthquake hazard and risk assessment for other cities and urban areas in Central and South America, and may be extended worldwide to cities at risk and in need of assistance. “The TREQ project has served as a venue for thorough discussion and developing skills in the hazard and risk assessment fields in the region. Working groups established in the cities have facilitated the sharing of data, knowledge, methodologies and results between the local partners and GEM scientists. Over the past two years, we have mutually learned from our diverse backgrounds and experiences.” Catalina Yepes, GEM Project Manager on the importance of local collaboration in disaster risk reduction. For other examples of GEM’s collaborative work in disaster risk reduction in developing countries, check the following links below: - Collaborative Risk Assessment for Volcanoes and Earthquakes (CRAVE) - Sub Saharan Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment (SSAHARA) - Developing a Disaster Risk Transfer Facility in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region (CAREC) - Modelling Exposure Through Earth Observation Routines (METEOR) - South American Risk Assessment (SARA) - Caribbean and Central America Earthquake Risk Assessment (CCARA) More information on UNDRR International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction can be found at https://www.un.org/en/observances/disaster-reduction-day . ----- * While most of the models and datasets will be available, there will be some limitations due to privacy considerations of local governments. GALLERY No images found. RELATED CONTENTS 1/0

  • Global Earthquake Risk and Covid Map

    Global Earthquake Maps Global Earthquake Risk and Covid Map VIEWER PDF PNG CONTRIBUTORS DOCUMENTATION References ​ TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION EXPERIMENTAL map for demonstration purposes only This map presents COVID-19 statistics released by Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center over the GEM Global Risk Layer depicting earthquake risk from the GEM Global Earthquake Model (2018). The COVID-19 data shows cumulative number of new cases reported. Click on dots on the map to display a graph of COVID-19 cases as a function of time. The earthquake risk map depicts average annual loss (AAL) over cells of about 100 km squared, expressed in terms of potential damage to buildings in terms of square meters of building floor area. The combined map indicates areas where a damaging earthquake could cause increases in COVID-19 cases due to displacement of people from damaged buildings or where health care systems may be further stressed due to human injuries. GEM’s global model and underlying data and models for social and physical vulnerability can be used to estimate the additional risk in the event of an earthquake and to identify those places at greatest combined COVID-Earthquake risk. Sources https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem Publication date May 21, 2020 Edition Experimental License Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 4.0 (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) MAJOR SPONSORS AIR ARUP GEOSCIENCE AUSTRALIA CSSC NRCan EAFIT ETH ZURICH EUCENTRE FM GLOBAL GFZ GIROJ GNS SCIENCE HANNOVER RE MUNICH RE NTU ICRM NEPHILA NERC NIED NSET OYO PARTNER RE DPC SGC SWISS SER SWISS RE FOUNDATION SURAMERICANA TEM RCN USGS USAID WTW ZURICH INSURANCE

  • Global Exposure Map

    Global Earthquake Maps Global Exposure Map VIEWER PDF PNG CONTRIBUTORS DOCUMENTATION References ​ TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION The Global Exposure Map (v2018.1) presents the geographic distribution of residential, commercial and industrial buildings. The number of buildings is presented on a hexagonal grid, with a spacing of 0.30 x 0.34 decimal degrees (approximately 1,000 km2 at the equator). The datasets employed to develop this exposure map were provided by national institutions, or developed within the scope of regional programs or bilateral collaborations. This global map and the underlying databases are based on best available and publicly accessible datasets and models. The Global Exposure Map is intended to be a dynamic product, such that it may be updated when new datasets and models become available. Releases of updated versions of the Global Exposure Map are anticipated on a regular basis. Additional exposure and risk metrics for each country can be explored at https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem. Many thanks to our Sponsors and Contributors. Cite this work as: V Silva, D Amo-Oduro, A Calderon, J Dabbeek, V Despotaki, L Martins, A Rao, M Simionato, D Viganò, C Yepes, A Acevedo, N Horspool, H Crowley, K Jaiswal, M Journeay, M Pittore (2018). Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Exposure Map (version 2018.1). DOI: 10.13117/GEM-GLOBAL-EXPOSURE-MAP-2018.1 This work is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA): https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Legal statements This map was created for dissemination purposes. The information included in this map must not be used for the design of earthquake-resistant structures or to support any important decision involving human life, capital and movable and immovable properties. The values of seismic hazard in this map do not constitute an alternative nor do they replace building actions defined in national building codes. Readers seeking this information should consult national databases. This hazard map is the combination of results computed using 30 hazard input models covering the vast majority of landmass. These models represent the best information publicly accessible, and the GEM Foundation recognises their credibility and authoritativeness. This hazard map results from an integration process that is solely the responsibility of the GEM Foundation. MAJOR SPONSORS AIR ARUP GEOSCIENCE AUSTRALIA CSSC NRCan EAFIT ETH ZURICH EUCENTRE FM GLOBAL GFZ GIROJ GNS SCIENCE HANNOVER RE MUNICH RE NTU ICRM NEPHILA NERC NIED NSET OYO PARTNER RE DPC SGC SWISS SER SWISS RE FOUNDATION SURAMERICANA TEM RCN USGS USAID WTW ZURICH INSURANCE

  • Global Earthquake Hazard Map

    Global Earthquake Maps Global Earthquake Hazard Map VIEWER PDF PNG CONTRIBUTORS DOCUMENTATION References ​ TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Global Seismic Hazard Map (version 2018.1) depicts the geographic distribution of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years, computed for reference rock conditions (shear wave velocity, V , of 760-800 m/s). The map was created by collating maps computed using national and regional probabilistic seismic hazard models developed by various institutions and projects, and by GEM Foundation scientists. The OpenQuake engine, an open-source seismic hazard and risk calculation software developed principally by the GEM Foundation, was used to calculate the hazard values. A smoothing methodology was applied to homogenise hazard values along the model borders. The map is based on a database of hazard models described using the OpenQuake engine data format (NRML); those models originally implemented in other software formats were converted into NRML. While translating these models, various checks were performed to test the compatibility between the original results and the new results computed using the OpenQuake engine. Overall the differences between the original and translated model results are small, notwithstanding some diversity in modelling methodologies implemented in different hazard modelling software. The hashed areas in the map (e.g. Greenland) are currently not covered by a hazard model. The map and the underlying database of models are a dynamic framework, capable to incorporate newly released open models. Due to possible model limitations, regions portrayed with low hazard may still experience potentially damaging earthquakes. The GEM Foundation plans to release future updates of this map on a regular basis as new information becomes available. Technical details on the compilation of the hazard and risk maps and the underlying models are available at http://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem. ​ How to use and cite this work Please cite this work as: M. Pagani, J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Gee, K. Johnson, V. Poggi, R. Styron, G. Weatherill, M. Simionato, D. Viganò, L. Danciu, D. Monelli (2018). Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Hazard Map (version 2018.1 - December 2018), DOI: 10.13117/GEM-GLOBAL-SEISMIC-HAZARD-MAP-2018.1 This work is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA): https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/. Acknowledgements This map is the result of a collaborative effort and extensively relies on the enthusiasm and commitment of various organisations and projects to openly share and collaborate. The creation of this map would not have been possible without the support provided by many public and private organisations during GEM’s second implementation phase (2014-2018). These key contributions are profoundly acknowledged. None of this would have been possible without the extensive support of all GEM Secretariat staff. The map was plotted using the Generic Mapping Tools software (Wessel et al., 2013). Legal statements This map was created for dissemination purposes. The information included in this map must not be used for the design of earthquake-resistant structures or to support any important decision involving human life, capital and movable and immovable properties. The values of seismic hazard in this map do not constitute an alternative nor do they replace building actions defined in national building codes. Readers seeking this information should consult national databases. This hazard map is the combination of results computed using 30 hazard input models covering the vast majority of landmass. These models represent the best information publicly accessible, and the GEM Foundation recognises their credibility and authoritativeness. This hazard map results from an integration process that is solely the responsibility of the GEM Foundation. https://www.globalquakemodel.org/hazard-technical-description MAJOR SPONSORS AIR ARUP GEOSCIENCE AUSTRALIA CSSC NRCan EAFIT ETH ZURICH EUCENTRE FM GLOBAL GFZ GIROJ GNS SCIENCE HANNOVER RE MUNICH RE NTU ICRM NEPHILA NERC NIED NSET OYO PARTNER RE DPC SGC SWISS SER SWISS RE FOUNDATION SURAMERICANA TEM RCN USGS USAID WTW ZURICH INSURANCE

  • Global Earthquake Risk Map

    Global Earthquake Maps Global Earthquake Risk Map VIEWER PDF PNG CONTRIBUTORS DOCUMENTATION References ​ TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION The Global Seismic Risk Map (v2018.1) comprises four global maps. The main map presents the geographic distribution of average annual loss (USD) normalised by the average construction costs of the respective country (USD/m2) due to ground shaking in the residential, commercial and industrial building stock, considering contents, structural and non-structural components. The normalised metric allows a direct comparison of the risk between countries with widely different construction costs. It does not consider the effects of tsunamis, liquefaction, landslides, and fires following earthquakes. The loss estimates are from direct physical damage to buildings due to shaking, and thus damage to infrastructure or indirect losses due to business interruption are not included. The Global Seismic Hazard Map depicts the geographic distribution of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years, computed for reference rock conditions (shear wave velocity of 760-800 m/s). The Global Exposure Map depicts the geographic distribution of residential, commercial and industrial buildings. The Global Seismic Fatalities Map depicts an estimate of average annual human losses due to earthquake-induced structural collapse of buildings. The results for human losses do not consider indirect fatalities such as those from post-earthquake epidemics. The average annual losses and number of buildings are presented on a hexagonal grid, with a spacing of 0.30 x 0.34 decimal degrees (approximately 1,000 km2 at the equator). The average annual losses were computed using the event-based calculator of the OpenQuake engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis developed by the GEM Foundation. The seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability models employed in these calculations were provided by national institutions, or developed within the scope of regional programs or bilateral collaborations. These global maps and the underlying databases are based on best available and publicly accessible datasets and models. Due to possible model limitations, regions portrayed with low risk may still experience potentially damaging earthquakes. The GEM Risk Map is intended to be a dynamic product, such that it may be updated when new datasets and models become available. Releases of updated versions of the seismic risk map are anticipated on a regular basis. Additional hazard and risk metrics for each country can be explored at globalquakemodel.org/gem. How to use and cite this work Please cite this work as: V. Silva, D. Amo-Oduro, A. Calderon, J. Dabbeek, V. Despotaki, L. Martins, A. Rao, M. Simionato, D. Viganò, C. Yepes-Estrada, A. Acevedo, H. Crowley, N. Horspool, K. Jaiswal, M. Journeay, M. Pittore (2018). Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Risk Map (version 2018.1), DOI: 10.13117/GEM-GLOBAL-SEISMIC-RISK-MAP- 2018. This work is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA). Acknowledgements This map is the result of a collaborative effort and extensively relies on the enthusiasm and commitment of various organisations to openly share and collaborate. The creation of this map would not have been possible without the support provided by several public and private organisations during GEM’s second working programme (2014-2018). None of this would have been possible without the extensive support of all GEM Secretariat staff. These key contributions are profoundly acknowledged. A complete list of the contributors can be found at globalquakemodel.org/gem. Legal statements This map is an informational product created by the GEM Foundation for public dissemination purposes. The information included in this map must not be used for the design of earthquake-resistant structures or to support any important decisions involving human life, capital and movable and immovable properties. The values of seismic hazard and risk in this map do not constitute an alternative nor do they replace building actions defined in national building codes or earthquake risk estimates derived nationally. Readers seeking this information should contact the national authorities tasked with seismic hazard and risk assessment. The seismic risk map results from an integration process that is solely the responsibility of the GEM Foundation. https://www.globalquakemodel.org/risk-technical-description MAJOR SPONSORS AIR ARUP GEOSCIENCE AUSTRALIA CSSC NRCan EAFIT ETH ZURICH EUCENTRE FM GLOBAL GFZ GIROJ GNS SCIENCE HANNOVER RE MUNICH RE NTU ICRM NEPHILA NERC NIED NSET OYO PARTNER RE DPC SGC SWISS SER SWISS RE FOUNDATION SURAMERICANA TEM RCN USGS USAID WTW ZURICH INSURANCE

  • Global Economic Vulnerability Map

    Global Earthquake Maps Global Economic Vulnerability Map VIEWER PDF PNG CONTRIBUTORS DOCUMENTATION References Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N. & Vella, S. 2009. Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements. Oxford Development Studies, 37:3, 229-247, DOI: 10.1080/13600810903089893. Cutter, S. L., J. T. Mitchell, and M. S. Scott. 2000. Revealing the Vulnerability of People and Place: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 90(4): 713-737. TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION The Global Economic Vulnerability Map presents a composite index that was designed primarily to measure the potential for economic losses from earthquakes due to a country’s macroeconomic exposure. This index is also an appraisal of the ability of countries to respond to shocks to their economic systems. Relevant indicators include the density of exposed economic assets such as commercial and industrial infrastructure. Metrics used to measure the ability of a country to withstand shocks to its economic system include reliance on imports/exports, government debt, and purchasing power. The economic vulnerability category also considers the economic vitality of countries since the economic vitality of a country can be directly related to the vulnerability and resilience of its population. The latter includes measurements of single-sector economic dependence, income inequality, and employment status. Criteria for indicator selection To choose indicators contextually exclusive for use in each map, the starting point was an exhaustive review of the literature on earthquake social vulnerability and resilience. For a variable to be considered appropriate and selected, three equally important criteria were met: - variables were justified based on the literature regarding its relevance to one or more of the indices. - variables needed to be of consistent quality and freely available from sources such as the United Nations and the World Bank; and - variables must be scalable or available at various levels of geography to promote sub-country level analyses. This procedure resulted in a ‘wish list’ of approximately 300 variables of which 78 were available and fit for use based on the three criteria. Process for indicator selection For variables to be allocated to an index, a two-tiered validation procedure was utilized. For the first tier, variables were assigned to each of the respective indices based on how each variable was cited within the literature, i.e., as being part of an index of social vulnerability, economic vulnerability, or recovery/resilience. For the second tier, machine learning and a multivariate ordinal logistic regression modelling procedure was used for external validation. Here, focus was placed on the statistical association between the socio-economic vulnerability indicators and the adverse impacts from historical earthquakes on a country-by country-basis. The Global Significant Earthquake Database provided the external validation metrics that were used as dependent variables in the statistical analysis. To include both severe and moderate earthquakes within the dependent variables, adverse impact data was collected from damaging earthquake events that conformed to at least one of five criteria: 1) caused deaths, 2) caused moderate damage (approximately $1 million USD or more), 3) had a magnitude 7.5 or greater 4) had a Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) X or greater, or 5) generated a tsunami. This database was chosen because it considers low magnitude earthquakes that were damaging (e.g., MW >=2.5 & MW<=5.5) and contains socio-economic data such as the total number of fatalities, injuries, houses damaged or destroyed, and dollar loss estimates in $USD. Countries not demonstrating at least a minimal earthquake risk, i.e., seismicity <0.05 PGA (Pagani et al. 2018) and <$10,000 USD in predicted average annual losses (Silva et al. 2018) were eliminated from the analyses so as not to include countries with minimal to no earthquake risk. A total study area consists of 136 countries. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation The Global Socio-Economic Vulnerability Maps 2020 is a product of the GEM Foundation’s collaborative work with the Department of Geography at the University of Connecticut, USA. GEM is a non-profit foundation in Pavia, Italy funded through a public-private partnership with a vision to create a world that is resilient to earthquakes. Formed in 2009 through the initiative of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Global Science Forum in 2006, GEM participants represent national research and disaster management institutions; private sector companies mainly in insurance, risk financing and engineering; and academic and international organizations. GEM’s OpenQuake Platform website (platform.openquake.org) provides access to all of the data, models, tools and software behind the maps. GEM’s open-source OpenQuake engine enables probabilistic hazard and risk calculations worldwide and at all scales, from global down to regional, national, local, and site-specific applications in a single software package. GEM supports the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) goals by contributing openly accessible products for hazard and risk assessment and capacity development through risk reduction projects. GEM also serves as a baseline or exemplar for the development of a broader multi-hazard framework for risk assessment in support of a holistic and comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction. Technical details on the development and compilation of the socio-economic vulnerability maps, underlying models and the list of contributors can be found at https://www.globalquakemodel.org/svrmaps/Economic-Vulnerability-Index-Technical-Description. How to use and cite this work Please cite this work as: C Burton, M. Toquica (September 2020). Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Social Vulnerability Map (version 2020.1) DOI: 10.13117/GEM-ECONOMIC-VULNERABILITY-MAP. This work is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution - Non Commercial-Share Alike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA). Acknowledgements This map is the result of a collaborative effort and extensively relies on the enthusiasm and commitment of various organisations to openly share and collaborate. The creation of this map would not have been possible without the support provided by several public and private organisations during GEM’s second and third working programmes, 2014-2018 and 2019-2021 respectively. None of this would have been possible without the extensive support of all GEM Secretariat staff. These key contributions are profoundly acknowledged. A complete list of the contributors can be found at: www. globalquakemodel.org/global-social-vulnerability. Legal statements This map is an informational product created by the GEM Foundation for public dissemination purposes. The information included in this map must not be used for the design of seismic socio-economic policies or to support any important decisions involving human life, capital and movable and immovable properties. The values of social vulnerability and risk values used in this map do not constitute an alternative nor do they replace any national government policy or actions defined in national codes or earthquake risk estimates derived nationally. Readers seeking this information should contact the national authorities tasked with socio economic and risk assessment. The socio-economic vulnerability maps are based on the results of an integration process that is solely the responsibility of the GEM Foundation. Contact GEM (Global Earthquake Model) Foundation Via Ferrata, 1 - 27100, Pavia, Italy info@globalquakemodel.org . More information available at: www. globalquakemodel.org/global-social-vulnerability MAJOR SPONSORS AIR ARUP GEOSCIENCE AUSTRALIA CSSC NRCan EAFIT ETH ZURICH EUCENTRE FM GLOBAL GFZ GIROJ GNS SCIENCE HANNOVER RE MUNICH RE NTU ICRM NEPHILA NERC NIED NSET OYO PARTNER RE DPC SGC SWISS SER SWISS RE FOUNDATION SURAMERICANA TEM RCN USGS USAID WTW ZURICH INSURANCE

  • Global Earthquake Social Vulnerability Map

    Global Earthquake Maps Global Earthquake Social Vulnerability Map VIEWER PDF PNG CONTRIBUTORS DOCUMENTATION References Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N. & Vella, S. 2009. Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements. Oxford Development Studies, 37:3, 229-247, DOI: 10.1080/13600810903089893. Cutter, S. L., J. T. Mitchell, and M. S. Scott. 2000. Revealing the Vulnerability of People and Place: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 90(4): 713-737. Cutter, S. L., B. J. Boruff, and W. L. Shirley. 2003. Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards. Social Science Quarterly 84 (2): 242-261. National Research Council. 2006. Facing Hazards and Disasters: Understanding Human Dimensions, Joseph Henry Press, Washington, D.C. Nersesian, W. 1988. Infant Mortality in Socially Vulnerable Populations. Ann. Rev. Public Health 9:361-377. Tierney, K. J., M. K. Lindell, and R. W. Perry. 2001. Facing the Unexpected: Disaster Preparedness and Response in the United States. Washington, D.C.: Joseph Henry Press. TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION The Global Social Vulnerability Map, is a composite index that was developed to measure characteristics or qualities of social systems that create the potential for loss or harm. Here, the social vulnerability index helps to explain why some countries will experience adverse impacts from earthquakes differentially where the linking of social capacities with demographic attributes suggests that communities with higher percentages of age dependent populations, homeless, disabled, under-educated, and foreign migrants are likely to exhibit higher social vulnerability than communities lacking these characteristics. Other relevant factors that affect the social vulnerability of populations include population density, slum populations, and international tourists. Criteria for indicator selection To choose indicators contextually exclusive for use in each map, the starting point was an exhaustive review of the literature on earthquake social vulnerability and resilience. For a variable to be considered appropriate and selected, three equally important criteria were met: - variables were justified based on the literature regarding its relevance to one or more of the indices. - variables needed to be of consistent quality and freely available from sources such as the United Nations and the World Bank; and - variables must be scalable or available at various levels of geography to promote sub-country level analyses. This procedure resulted in a ‘wish list’ of approximately 300 variables of which 78 were available and fit for use based on the three criteria. Process for indicator selection For variables to be allocated to an index, a two-tiered validation procedure was utilized. For the first tier, variables were assigned to each of the respective indices based on how each variable was cited within the literature, i.e., as being part of an index of social vulnerability, economic vulnerability, or recovery/resilience. For the second tier, machine learning and a multivariate ordinal logistic regression modelling procedure was used for external validation. Here, focus was placed on the statistical association between the socio-economic vulnerability indicators and the adverse impacts from historical earthquakes on a country-by country-basis. The Global Significant Earthquake Database provided the external validation metrics that were used as dependent variables in the statistical analysis. To include both severe and moderate earthquakes within the dependent variables, adverse impact data was collected from damaging earthquake events that conformed to at least one of five criteria: 1) caused deaths, 2) caused moderate damage (approximately $1 million USD or more), 3) had a magnitude 7.5 or greater 4) had a Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) X or greater, or 5) generated a tsunami. This database was chosen because it considers low magnitude earthquakes that were damaging (e.g., MW >=2.5 & MW<=5.5) and contains socio-economic data such as the total number of fatalities, injuries, houses damaged or destroyed, and dollar loss estimates in $USD. Countries not demonstrating at least a minimal earthquake risk, i.e., seismicity <0.05 PGA (Pagani et al. 2018) and <$10,000 USD in predicted average annual losses (Silva et al. 2018) were eliminated from the analyses so as not to include countries with minimal to no earthquake risk. A total study area consists of 136 countries. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation The Global Socio-Economic Vulnerability Maps 2020 is a product of the GEM Foundation’s collaborative work with the Department of Geography at the University of Connecticut, USA. GEM is a non-profit foundation in Pavia, Italy funded through a public-private partnership with a vision to create a world that is resilient to earthquakes. Formed in 2009 through the initiative of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Global Science Forum in 2006, GEM participants represent national research and disaster management institutions; private sector companies mainly in insurance, risk financing and engineering; and academic and international organizations. GEM’s OpenQuake Platform website (platform.openquake.org) provides access to all of the data, models, tools and software behind the maps. GEM’s open-source OpenQuake engine enables probabilistic hazard and risk calculations worldwide and at all scales, from global down to regional, national, local, and site-specific applications in a single software package. GEM supports the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) goals by contributing openly accessible products for hazard and risk assessment and capacity development through risk reduction projects. GEM also serves as a baseline or exemplar for the development of a broader multi-hazard framework for risk assessment in support of a holistic and comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction. Technical details on the development and compilation of the socio-economic vulnerability maps, underlying models and the list of contributors can be found at: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/svrmaps/Social-Vulnerability-Index-Technical-Description. How to use and cite this work Please cite this work as: C Burton, M. Toquica (September 2020). Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Social Vulnerability Map (version 2020.1) DOI: https://doi.org/10.13117/gem-social-vulnerability-map. This work is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution - Non Commercial-Share Alike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA). Acknowledgements This map is the result of a collaborative effort and extensively relies on the enthusiasm and commitment of various organisations to openly share and collaborate. The creation of this map would not have been possible without the support provided by several public and private organisations during GEM’s second and third working programmes, 2014-2018 and 2019-2021 respectively. None of this would have been possible without the extensive support of all GEM Secretariat staff. These key contributions are profoundly acknowledged. A complete list of the contributors can be found at: www. globalquakemodel.org/global-social-vulnerability. Legal statements This map is an informational product created by the GEM Foundation for public dissemination purposes. The information included in this map must not be used for the design of seismic socio-economic policies or to support any important decisions involving human life, capital and movable and immovable properties. The values of social vulnerability and risk values used in this map do not constitute an alternative nor do they replace any national government policy or actions defined in national codes or earthquake risk estimates derived nationally. Readers seeking this information should contact the national authorities tasked with socio economic and risk assessment. The socio-economic vulnerability maps are based on the results of an integration process that is solely the responsibility of the GEM Foundation. Contact GEM (Global Earthquake Model) Foundation Via Ferrata, 1 - 27100, Pavia, Italy info@globalquakemodel.org . More information available at: www. globalquakemodel.org/global-social-vulnerability MAJOR SPONSORS AIR ARUP GEOSCIENCE AUSTRALIA CSSC NRCan EAFIT ETH ZURICH EUCENTRE FM GLOBAL GFZ GIROJ GNS SCIENCE HANNOVER RE MUNICH RE NTU ICRM NEPHILA NERC NIED NSET OYO PARTNER RE DPC SGC SWISS SER SWISS RE FOUNDATION SURAMERICANA TEM RCN USGS USAID WTW ZURICH INSURANCE

  • Global Recovery Map

    Global Earthquake Maps Global Recovery Map VIEWER PDF PNG CONTRIBUTORS DOCUMENTATION References Burton C.G. (2015). A Validation of Metrics for Community Resilience to Natural Hazards and Disasters using the Recovery from Hurricane Katrina as a Case Study. 150(1):67–86. Cutter, S.L., Burton, C.G. and Emrich, C. (2010). Disaster Resilience Indicators for Benchmarking Baseline Conditions. , 7(1): 1-22. Cutter, S.L., Barnes, L., Berry, M., Burton, C.G., Evans, E., Tate, E.C. and Webb, J. (2008). A Place-based Model for Understanding Community Resilience to Natural Disasters. 18: 598-606. Despotaki*, V., Sousa, L., and Burton, C.G., (2018). Using Socio-economic Indicators for Earthquake Recovery Prediction. Earthquake Spectra, 34: 265-282. TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION The Recovery/Reconstruction Potential Map is closely aligned with the concept of disaster resilience. Enhancing a country’s resilience to earthquakes is to improve its capacity to anticipate threats, to reduce its overall vulnerability, and to allow its communities to recover from adverse impacts from earthquakes when they occur. The measurement of recovery and reconstruction potential includes capturing inherent conditions that allow communities within a country to absorb impacts and cope with a damaging earthquake event, such as the density of the built environment, education levels, and political participation. It also encompasses post event processes that facilitate a population’s ability to reorganize, change, and learn in response to a damaging earthquake. Criteria for indicator selection To choose indicators contextually exclusive for use in each map, the starting point was an exhaustive review of the literature on earthquake social vulnerability and resilience. For a variable to be considered appropriate and selected, three equally important criteria were met: - variables were justified based on the literature regarding its relevance to one or more of the indices. - variables needed to be of consistent quality and freely available from sources such as the United Nations and the World Bank; and - variables must be scalable or available at various levels of geography to promote sub-country level analyses. This procedure resulted in a ‘wish list’ of approximately 300 variables of which 78 were available and fit for use based on the three criteria. Process for indicator selection For variables to be allocated to an index, a two-tiered validation procedure was utilized. For the first tier, variables were assigned to each of the respective indices based on how each variable was cited within the literature, i.e., as being part of an index of social vulnerability, economic vulnerability, or recovery/resilience. For the second tier, machine learning and a multivariate ordinal logistic regression modelling procedure was used for external validation. Here, focus was placed on the statistical association between the socio-economic vulnerability indicators and the adverse impacts from historical earthquakes on a country-by country-basis. The Global Significant Earthquake Database provided the external validation metrics that were used as dependent variables in the statistical analysis. To include both severe and moderate earthquakes within the dependent variables, adverse impact data was collected from damaging earthquake events that conformed to at least one of five criteria: 1) caused deaths, 2) caused moderate damage (approximately $1 million USD or more), 3) had a magnitude 7.5 or greater 4) had a Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) X or greater, or 5) generated a tsunami. This database was chosen because it considers low magnitude earthquakes that were damaging (e.g., MW >=2.5 & MW<=5.5) and contains socio-economic data such as the total number of fatalities, injuries, houses damaged or destroyed, and dollar loss estimates in $USD. Countries not demonstrating at least a minimal earthquake risk, i.e., seismicity <0.05 PGA (Pagani et al. 2018) and <$10,000 USD in predicted average annual losses (Silva et al. 2018) were eliminated from the analyses so as not to include countries with minimal to no earthquake risk. A total study area consists of 136 countries. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation The Global Socio-Economic Vulnerability Maps 2020 is a product of the GEM Foundation’s collaborative work with the Department of Geography at the University of Connecticut, USA. GEM is a non-profit foundation in Pavia, Italy funded through a public-private partnership with a vision to create a world that is resilient to earthquakes. Formed in 2009 through the initiative of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Global Science Forum in 2006, GEM participants represent national research and disaster management institutions; private sector companies mainly in insurance, risk financing and engineering; and academic and international organizations. GEM’s OpenQuake Platform website (platform.openquake.org) provides access to all of the data, models, tools and software behind the maps. GEM’s open-source OpenQuake engine enables probabilistic hazard and risk calculations worldwide and at all scales, from global down to regional, national, local, and site-specific applications in a single software package. GEM supports the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) goals by contributing openly accessible products for hazard and risk assessment and capacity development through risk reduction projects. GEM also serves as a baseline or exemplar for the development of a broader multi-hazard framework for risk assessment in support of a holistic and comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction. Technical details on the development and compilation of the socio-economic vulnerability maps, underlying models and the list of contributors can be found at: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/svrmaps/Reconstruction-and-Recovery-Index-Technical-Description. How to use and cite this work Please cite this work as: C Burton, M. Toquica (September 2020). Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Social Vulnerability Map (version 2020.1) DOI: 10.13117/GEM-RECONSTRUCTION-RECOVERY-MAP. This work is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution - Non Commercial-Share Alike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA). Acknowledgements This map is the result of a collaborative effort and extensively relies on the enthusiasm and commitment of various organisations to openly share and collaborate. The creation of this map would not have been possible without the support provided by several public and private organisations during GEM’s second and third working programmes, 2014-2018 and 2019-2021 respectively. None of this would have been possible without the extensive support of all GEM Secretariat staff. These key contributions are profoundly acknowledged. A complete list of the contributors can be found at: www. globalquakemodel.org/global-social-vulnerability. Legal statements This map is an informational product created by the GEM Foundation for public dissemination purposes. The information included in this map must not be used for the design of seismic socio-economic policies or to support any important decisions involving human life, capital and movable and immovable properties. The values of social vulnerability and risk values used in this map do not constitute an alternative nor do they replace any national government policy or actions defined in national codes or earthquake risk estimates derived nationally. Readers seeking this information should contact the national authorities tasked with socio economic and risk assessment. The socio-economic vulnerability maps are based on the results of an integration process that is solely the responsibility of the GEM Foundation. Contact GEM (Global Earthquake Model) Foundation Via Ferrata, 1 - 27100, Pavia, Italy info@globalquakemodel.org . More information available at: www. globalquakemodel.org/global-social-vulnerability MAJOR SPONSORS AIR ARUP GEOSCIENCE AUSTRALIA CSSC NRCan EAFIT ETH ZURICH EUCENTRE FM GLOBAL GFZ GIROJ GNS SCIENCE HANNOVER RE MUNICH RE NTU ICRM NEPHILA NERC NIED NSET OYO PARTNER RE DPC SGC SWISS SER SWISS RE FOUNDATION SURAMERICANA TEM RCN USGS USAID WTW ZURICH INSURANCE

  • Africa Model Release | Global Earthquake Model Foundation

    Global Earthquake Maps AFRICA MODEL RELEASE The Africa Earthquake Hazard and Risk model underpin the African portion of GEM’s global maps released in December 2018. The Africa Model is composed of North Africa, West Africa, Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa and South Africa regional models, developed in collaboration with various African public and private institutions, national governments, and individual experts using the OpenQuake engine. For the complete list of sponsors and contributors, visit: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem . Africa Model Hazard Data Files *** Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa VIEW Northern Africa VIEW Western Africa VIEW Documentation Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa VIEW Northern Africa VIEW Western Africa VIEW Hazard Interactive Viewer Africa Model Risk Data Files *** Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa VIEW Northern Africa VIEW Western Africa VIEW Southern Africa VIEW Vulnerability Functions *** VIEW ​ Documentation VIEW Risk Interactive Viewer *** To download the hazard and risk data files, and vulnerability functions, please register at the OpenQuake Platform website. It's free and takes less than a minute to complete. Click the button below to proceed. d. Register RELATED CONTENTS Press Release The press is a document of GEM's latest earthquake model for Africa. Brochure The brochure is an overview of GEM's latest earthquake model for Africa.