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Understanding Risk Global Forum 2024 (UR24)

June 16-21, 2024

Himeji, Japan

OVERVIEW

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation is proud to participate in the Understanding Risk Global Forum 2024 (UR24) in Himeji, Hyogo Prefecture, Japan, from June 16th to 21st, 2024. GEM, in collaboration with the World Community of Geological Surveys WCOGS, will be actively involved on June 18th-20th, leading a technical session titled "Building Geohazards Risk Assessment Capacity at the National Level." GEM will also host a focus event on the same topic for more in-depth discussions, allowing for a more interactive exchange of ideas and promoting collaboration among stakeholders.


GEM invites attendees from national governments, disaster risk reduction agencies, academia, and other stakeholders interested in strengthening earthquake risk assessment capacities to:

  • Participate in our technical session to gain in-depth knowledge of our work.

  • Attend our side event for focused discussions and networking opportunities.

  • Visit our exhibition booth, in the “friends of NASA” space, to explore our open seismic risk assessment resources.


Convenors/Speakers

The State of Practice in Risk Assessment and Needs for Improvement at National to Sub-National Level

Marzia Santini

EU JRC

Hugo Rodrigues

University of Aveiro

Daniel Emilio

University of Aveiro

Daniel Gomez

GEM

Catalina Yepes

GEM

More invited speakers coming soon!

AGENDA

The State of Practice in Risk Assessment and Needs for Improvement at National to Sub-National Level

Geohazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis and landslides represent a significant proportion of the global disaster risk. Yet the capabilities for assessing risk at national to sub-national level are often insufficient. This session will discuss the state of practice and identify the needs for improving hazard and risk assessment capabilities. A complimentary Focus Day event will propose the way forward through the development of a global collaboration network.

Auditorium

Time
Title
Speaker
Organisation

* early career researcher with travel grant

^ early career researcher with fee waiver

* early career researcher with travel grant

^ early career researcher with fee waiver

Session: GEM Global Release 2026

Daniel Gomez
Marzia Santini
Hugo Rodrigues
Daniel Emilio
Catalina Yepes
Catarina Costa
Lana Todorovic
Christopher Brooks
Karim Aljawhari
Finn Løvholt
Vitor Silva
GEM
09:30 - 10:00
National seismic hazard assessment for dams: emphasis on Himalaya and Northeast Indian region
Mukat Lal Sharma
Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee
10:00 - 10:30
From fault data to fault sources in South America: Experiences and challenges from the GEM-SARA Project
Carlos Costa
Universidad Nacional de San Luis, Argentina
10:30 - 11:15
Coffee break + demos + posters
11:15 - 11:45
Understanding the Regional Variability of Ground Motion across South America for Subduction Earthquakes
Jorge Luis Paredes Estacio
University of Bristol, UK
11:45 - 12:15
Residual Analysis of Algerian Strong-Motion Data for GMPE Validation and Site-Effects Assessment
Faouzi Gherboudj
Centre National de Recherche en Génie Parasismique, Algeria
12:15 - 12:45
Closure of National seismic hazard modelling workshop
Marco Pagani
GEM Foundation
12:45 - 13:00
Closure of GEM Conference 2026 (in Main Auditorium)
09:00 - 09:30
Transforming Seismic Hazard Models to Industry-Ready Risk Models
Jochen Woessner
Moody's RMS, Switzerland
09:00 - 09:30
Australian National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM)
Trevor Allen
Geoscience Australia
09:30 - 10:00
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for mainland France and the French Lesser Antilles islands
Céline Beauval
ISTerre, France
10:00 - 10:30
New Zealand NSHM
Matt Gerstenberger
Earth Sciences New Zealand
10:30 - 11:15
Coffee break + demos + posters
11:15 - 11:45
Seismic Hazard Assessment in Japan: Recent Updates and Emerging Challenges
Asako Iwaki
NIED, Japan
11:45 - 12:15
The USGS National Seismic Hazard Models and Their Use in U.S. Building Codes
Nico Luco
U.S. Geological Survey
12:15 - 12:45
Swiss NSHM
Laurentiu Danciu
SED/ETH Zurich, Switzerland
12:45 - 14:15
Lunch
14:15 - 14:45
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Taiwan: Updates and Improvements in TEM PSHA2025
Chung-Han Chan
Earthquake-Disaster & Risk Evaluation and Management (E-DREaM) Center, Taiwan
14:45 - 15:15
Italian NSHM
Akinci and D'Amico
INGV, Italy
15:15 - 15:45
Progress towards updating Canada’s National Seismic Hazard and Risk Models
Michal Kolaj
Natural Resources Canada
15:45 - 16:30
Coffee break + demos + posters
16:30 - 17:00
Country-Scale Seismic Hazard Assessment in Data-Scarce Regions of the East African Rift
Mohammed Al-Ajamee
University of Khartoum, Sudan
17:00 - 17:30
NSHM Guidelines
17:30 - 18:00
Discussion
09:00 - 09:10
Welcome to day 3
Helen Crowley
GEM Foundation

Session: Scenarios and Cascading Hazards 

Moderator: Indranil Kongar, University College London

09:10 - 09:25
The Global Tsunami Model association Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Model (GTMTHM26) progress
Stefano Lorito
INGV, Italy
09:25 - 09:40
From Hazard Science to Actionable Insights: Bridging the Global Tsunami Risk Gap for Societal and Financial Resilience
Naveen Ragu Ramalingam^
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
09:40 - 09:55
Toward Enhanced Portfolio Seismic Risk Estimates via Physics-Based Ground Motion Simulations
Preetish Kakoty
University College London, UK
09:55 - 10:10
A Methodology for Modeling of Mainshock-Aftershock Seismic Loss Assessment
Ömer Faruk Kalayci*
Istanbul Technical University, Turkey
10:10 - 10:25
Modelling earthquake sequences: When does damage accumulation matter?
Cecilia Nievas
GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Germany
10:25 - 10:40
Rethinking uncertainties for seismic hazard scenarios: A case study of the Lembang and Cimandiri faults in Indonesia
Ekbal Hussain
British Geological Survey
10:40 - 11:25
Coffee break + demos + posters

Session: Recent Damaging Earthquakes and Emergency Response

Moderator: Alexandru Tiganescu

11:25 - 11:40


Was the 30 September 2025 Mw6.9 Offshore Northern Cebu Earthquake Effectively Forecasted Using EBSPRA?

Azdine Kay Ysulan*
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
11:40 - 11:55
Towards the Development of Static Ground Displacement and Transient Ground Strain ShakeMaps
David Wald
U.S. Geological Survey
11:55 - 12:10
Developing PAGER 2.0: Next Generation Forecasts to Inform Rapid Global Earthquake Response
Kishor Jaiswal
U.S. Geological Survey
12:10 - 12:25
Towards uncertainty-based tsunami exposure models for rapid post-event assessment
Finn Løvholt
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
12:25 - 12:45
Invited Talk: Title TBD
Marzia Santini
Joint Research Centre, Italy
12:45 - 13:00
Closure of GEM Conference 2026
Helen Crowley
GEM Foundation
13:00 - 14:30
Lunch / Governing Board Meeting
15:00
Field Trip
09:00 - 09:10
Welcome to day 2
Helen Crowley
GEM Foundation

Session: Dynamic Exposure Modelling

Moderator: TBD

09:10 - 09:30
Invited Talk: Forward‑looking Exposure Modelling for Human‑centred Urban Disaster Mitigation
Carmine Galasso
University College London, UK
09:30 - 09:45
Machine Learning Forecasting Techniques for Earth Observation Data
Christian Geiß
German Aerospace Center
09:45 - 10:00
Spatial Disaggregation and Temporal Projection of Building Exposure and Physical Vulnerability using Deep Constrained Clustering and Probabilistic Graph Deep Learning
Joshua Dimasaka*
University of Cambridge, UK
10:00 - 10:15
Predicting population displacement due to earthquakes globally
Nicole Paul
University College London, UK/ETH Zurich, Swizterland
10:15 - 10:30
Baseline Survey Framework for GEM-Standardised National Building Exposure Model towards Earthquake Risk Assessment in Uganda
Morris Oleng*
National Building Review Board, Uganda
10:30 - 11:30
Coffee break + demos + posters

Session: Next Generation Vulnerability 

Moderator: Ana Beatriz Acevedo, EAFIT University, Colombia

11:30 - 11:45
A Framework for Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Indonesian Infilled Masonry Dwellings
Angga Sabaruliman
The University of Sydney, Australia
11:45 - 12:00
Integrated Seismic Risk Assessment for Masonry Structures in the Marmara Region: AEM-Based Simulations and PML Comparative Analysis
Seyhan Okuyan Akcan^
Boğaziçi University, Turkey
12:00 - 12:15
Reduction of seismic risk for typical URM residential buildings in Zagreb using target retrofitting
Ante Pilipović
University of Zagreb, Croatia
12:15 - 12:30
From spatial correlation to damage dependence and IM conversion in seismic risk models
Gerard O'Reilly
IUSS Pavia, Italy
12:30 - 12:45
Vulnerability modelling for embodied carbon (title TBD)
Karim Aljawhari
GEM Foundation
12:45 - 14:15
Lunch

Session: Disaster Risk Reduction Applications 

Moderator: Jenty Kirsch Wood, UNDRR

14:15 - 14:30
Reducing Disaster Risk: Translating Technical Models to Implementation
Veronica Cedillos
GeoHazards International, USA
14:30 - 14:45
Implementing and Scaling Up Earthquake Desks: A Practical Disaster Risk Reduction Application for Schools
Sweata Sijapati*
GeoHazards International, Nepal
14:45 - 15:00
From Risk Modelling to Policy Development: Early Applications of Canada’s National Seismic Risk Model
Carlos Molina Hutt
University of British Columbia, Canada
15:00 - 15:15
Scenario Risk Results for the Department of Antioquia (Colombia)
Ana Beatriz Acevedo
EAFIT University, Colombia
15:15 - 15:45
Panel Taking stock: Measuring impact in disaster risk reduction Moderator: Jenty Kirsch Wood, UNDRR
15:45 - 16:45
Coffee break + demos + posters

Session: Financial Risk Transfer 

Moderator: Laurie Johnson, Laurie Johnson Consulting

16:45 - 17:00
Invited Talk: Title TBD
Iwan Stalder
Zurich Insurance, Switzerland
17:00 - 17:15
Building a Nationwide, Seismic Sensor-based, Parametric Earthquake Insurance Program for Morocco
Evan Reis
Safehub, USA
17:15 - 17:30
GEM Product Applications in the (Re)insurance Industry
Molly Gallahue
Gallagher Re, UK
17:30 - 17:45
Understanding Earthquake Catastrophe Risk in the Balkans: A new Guy Carpenter Model
Robert Churchill
Guy Carpenter, UK
17:45 - 18:00
Advancing Catastrophe Models with Earthquake-Triggered Secondary Geoperils: A Case Study for Italy
Abril Sanchez
Aon/Impact Forecasting, Czech Republic
Furkan Narlitepe
IUSS Pavia/GEM Foundation
Karim Aljawhari
GEM Foundation
Al Mouayed Bellah Nafeh
GEM Foundation
09:00 - 09:10

Institutional Welcome

TBD
09:10 - 09:20
CCEE and GEM
Josip Atalic
University of Zagreb
09:20 - 09:30
Welcome to the GEM Conference 2026
Helen Crowley
GEM Foundation
09:30 - 10:00
Global Seismic Hazard v2026
Marco Pagani
GEM Foundation
10:00 - 10:30
Global Seismic Risk v2026
Vitor Silva
GEM Foundation
10:30 - 11:30
Coffee break + GEM demos + GEM PhD posters
11:30 - 13:00
GEM's Seismic Hazard Mosaic
Kendra Johnson
GEM Foundation
Global Block Model (Active Faults Database)
Richard Styron
GEM Foundation
Global Stochastic Event Set (SEESAWS)
Manuela Vilani
GEM Foundation
Global Earthquake Catalogue
Kirsty Bayliss
GEM Foundation
Global Ground Motion Flat File
Christopher Brooks
GEM Foundation
13:00 - 14:30
Lunch
14:30 - 14:45
GEM's New Vulnerability Modelling Framework
Al Mouayed Bellah Nafeh
GEM Foundation
postersdemos

POSTERS & DEMOS

Showcasing GEM Integration, Innovative Tools, and Advanced Data for Enhanced Hazard and Risk Assessment

REGISTRATION

Stay tuned for more details!

We will provide further registration details for GEM's sessions at UR24 in the coming weeks. For inquiries, please contact info@globalquakemodel.org.


Links


EXHIBITION

floorplan

Visit GEM's booth in the "Friends of NASA" area. Explore open seismic risk resources and chat with our earthquake experts!










LOCATION

HOTEL

TRANSPORTATION

Taxi

Taxis in Japan are quite expensive and you may prefer other public transportation services. However, in smaller cities or late evening hours, they may be the only solution to get to your destination. Taxi stands may be easily found outside airports and train stations but you also may flag down a taxi in the street. You may also use a taxi app or request the reception of your hotel to call a taxi for you.


A couple of things to know when using a taxi in Japan:

  • A plate on the dashboard in the lower corner of the windshield indicates whether a taxi is vacant or not, red indicates vacant, green indicates occupied, exactly the other way around you may expect.

  • When boarding and getting out of the taxi, DON'T touch the door, the left rear door is opened and closed automatically by the driver.

  • If you don't speak Japanese, the easiest thing to do is to hand over the written address of your destination to the driver - or to show it on a map, if available, as the address system in Japan can be very confusing, even for the taxi driver. Most of the taxis accept credit card payments.

  • If you use cash, try to avoid using large bills for small amounts as the driver may not have enough change.

  • Last but not least: Tipping is not expected/done in Japan.


Local buses in Himeji (Shinki Bus)

Using the local bus, Shinki Bus may be the most convenient solution to move in Himeji. You will need cash or a rechargeable IC card https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2359_003.html before boarding the bus. You may also purchase special fare tickets in advance at the bus station ticket office.


Check the destination on the front and side of the bus. Always board the bus at the rear door and exit at the front door. When paying using cash, take a number from the small box next to the entrance and keep it with you; you will need to drop the number together with your cash in a box near the driver when getting off the bus. When paying with an IC card, hold the card to the reader near the entrance until you hear an acoustic signal. If you purchased a special fare ticket in advance, take a number as if you'd pay with cash; when getting off the bus, drop the number in the ticket box next and show the special ticket to the driver.


A good solution for foreign travelers is the Hyogo Amazing Pass, a prepaid one-day ticket that allows you to use all orange Shinki Buses for 1,000 JYN for one day. You can purchase your Hyogo Amazing Pass online here and only need to show the screenshot of your mobile ticket when getting off the bus.

RESOURCES

Available resources at the GEM Booth S7

Videos

Gallery

Brochures & Maps

Recording

Videos

Gallery

Brochures & Maps

Recording

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