Publications Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2017 | Peer-reviewed Using a score to generalize the model performance into one numeric value has been one of the most popular approaches to empirically evaluate ground‐motion models (GMMs). This approach has an advantage of simplifying model comparison. We study the effects of data correlation and score variability on the evaluation of GMMs. Most modern GMMs are hierarchical, in which ground motions from the same earthquake are modeled as correlated. We demonstrate, with examples, that incorrect results could occur if such hierarchical GMMs are evaluated by a score that does not duly address the data correlation. We propose to use the multivariate logarithmic score, a natural extension of the widely used univariate logarithmic score (referred to as LLH in the seismological literature), to correctly score hierarchical GMMs. The score variability affects the interpretation of model ranking. We demonstrate that the cluster bootstrap is a better bootstrap strategy, compared with other strategies proposed in the literature, to study the score variability. The bootstrap allows computing two useful quantities: the distinctness index that indicates if two models are truly different given the score variability and the frequency weight, a data‐driven weighting scheme that represents the frequentist’s interpretation of the weight of a logic‐tree branch. The frequency weight has a direct link to the current practice of using multiple GMMs in a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment.

An OpenQuake Engine-Based Rupture Matching Algorithm and Scenarios Database Products Global EarthquakE ScEnarios (GEESE) An OpenQuake Engine-Based Rupture Matching Algorithm and Scenarios Database Share Facebook LinkedIn Description When evaluating the seismic hazard within a region or site of interest (e.g., a densely populated city or a nuclear power plant), it is essential to realistically model the characteristics (size, geometry and surface orientation) of large earthquake ruptures that may occur. The GEESE algorithm retrieves sufficiently representative ruptures for queried earthquakes from seismic hazard models developed within the OpenQuake Engine seismic hazard software. We used the GEESE algorithm to retrieve finite ruptures for the strongest events included in the global-coverage ISC-GEM earthquake catalogue (covering a time window of 1904 to 2019), which we present here as the GEESE database. For each event to which a rupture could be retrieved, the database also included the inputs for an OpenQuake Hazard Scenario calculation and the ground-motion fields (GMFs) computed using some (reconfigurable) default parameters. How to cite this work If you use this work, please cite both the publication and the data. Publication: Brooks, C., Pagani, M., Villani, M., Johnson, K., Styron, R., & Bayliss, K. (2025). Global EarthquakE ScEnarios (GEESE): An OpenQuake Engine-Based Rupture Matching Algorithm and Scenarios Database for Seismic Source Model Testing and Rapid Post-Event Response Analysis. Seismica, 4(2). https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v4i2.1654 Data: Brooks, C., Pagani, M., Villani, M., Johnson, K., Styron, R., & Bayliss, K. (2025). Global EarthquakE ScEnarios (GEESE): An OpenQuake Engine-Based Rupture Matching Algorithm and Scenarios Database [Data set]. In Seismica (Vol. 4, Number 2). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14981706 Available Versions The latest version (v2025) is available for direct download under a CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license. Users interested in this version can click the "Open Version Download" button in the right panel to access the information. If your use case does not comply with the license terms, a license can be requested by clicking on the "License Request", where a specific agreement will be provided, depending on the use case. License information The open version is available under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license, which requires: Attribution (you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made) Non-commercial (you may not use the material for commercial purposes) ShareAlike (derivatives created must be made available under the same license as the original) Any deviation from these terms incur in license infringement. For commercial use of the model, a specific license agreement must be made tailored to your use case, in such instance please click on "License Request". Facebook LinkedIn Share Latest Version v2025 License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 Available resources Open Version Download License Request text Map View Search Popup title Close Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Preview Preview is not available. Related products Global Earthquake Impact Database (GEID) Related publications For downloading or accessing detailed product information like PNG/PDF maps, datasets, license request, shapefiles and more, please switch to a desktop or laptop computer. Thank you for your understanding.

A global tectonic block model providing internally consistent fault slip rates derived from joint inversion of geodetic and geologic data, developed to support probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Products Global Block Model A global tectonic block model providing internally consistent fault slip rates derived from joint inversion of geodetic and geologic data, developed to support probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Share Facebook LinkedIn Description The GEM Global Block Model is a research dataset that contains a comprehensive, globally complete set of >7000 active faults, combined with a subdivision of the entire Earth surface into ~2000 tectonic plates or microplates (blocks), and a set of three-dimensional meshes of subduction interfaces. The faults are boundaries between blocks, and the slip rates of the faults (proportional to the seismic activity of the faults) are determined by the relative motion of the blocks on either side of the faults. The fault geometries are from a near-complete remapping of Earth’s deforming regions, based in part on existing mapping (such as the previous version of the GEM Global Active Faults Database or GEM GAF-DB), as well as interpretations of high-resolution topography, seismicity and geodetic data, to maximize completeness, accuracy, and mapping style specifically for seismic hazard assessment. The block motions are determined through joint inversion of geodetic velocity data — primarily GNSS observations supplemented by InSAR-derived velocity fields from the COMET LiCSAR processing system — and geologic fault slip rates spanning decadal to Quaternary timescales. The primary output is the set of active faults with complete, internally-consistent slip rates and formal uncertainties, and subduction interfaces with spatially-variable coupling estimated simultaneously with the slip rates. These fault data may be easily used to build and evaluate seismic source models using the OpenQuake software suite. The GEM Global Block Model is a work in progress, and both block geometries and derived fault parameters are subject to revision as new geodetic and geologic data are incorporated. This dataset will soon be made available for direct download. How to cite this work Coming soon Available Versions This database will soon be made available for direct download under a CC BY-SA 4.0 license. If your use case does not comply with the license terms, a license can be requested by clicking on the "License Request", where a specific agreement will be provided, depending on the use case. License information The open version is available under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license, which requires: Attribution (you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made) Non-commercial (you may not use the material for commercial purposes) ShareAlike (derivatives created must be made available under the same license as the original) Any deviation from these terms incur in license infringement. For commercial use of the model, a specific license agreement must be made tailored to your use case, in such instance please click on "License Request". Facebook LinkedIn Share Latest Version v2026 License Custom license Available resources License Request text Map View Search Popup title Close Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Preview Preview is not available. Related products Related publications For downloading or accessing detailed product information like PNG/PDF maps, datasets, license request, shapefiles and more, please switch to a desktop or laptop computer. Thank you for your understanding.

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OpenQuake engine input model to perform hazard calculations for Antarctica Products Antarctica Hazard OpenQuake engine input model to perform hazard calculations for Antarctica Share Facebook LinkedIn Description The v2025 Antarctica hazard model has been developed by GEM within the USAID funded FORCE project. How to cite this work K. Bayliss, C. Brooks, M. Villani, K. Johnson, R. Styron, M. Pagani (2026). PSHA input model documentation for Antarctica (PAN-2024-1.0). GEM Foundation. Available Versions The latest version (v2025.0.0) is available for direct download under a CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license. Users interested in this version can click the "Open Version Download" button in the right panel to access the information. If your use case does not comply with the license terms, a license can be requested by clicking on the "License Request", where a specific agreement will be provided, depending on the use case. License information The open version is available under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license, which requires: Attribution (you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made) Non-commercial (you may not use the material for commercial purposes) ShareAlike (derivatives created must be made available under the same license as the original) Any deviation from these terms incur in license infringement. For commercial use of the model, a specific license agreement must be made tailored to your use case, in such instance please click on "License Request". Facebook LinkedIn Share Latest Version v2025.0.0 License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 Available resources Open Version Download Documentation License Request text Map View Search Popup title Close Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Preview Preview is not available. Related products Arctic Hazard Model Builder's Toolkit (oq-mbtk) Global Seismic Hazard Map Global Liquefaction Hazard Global Exposure Model Global Vulnerability Model Global Seismic Embodied Carbon Risk Global Seismic Risk Map Country-Territory Seismic Risk Profiles Related publications For downloading or accessing detailed product information like PNG/PDF maps, datasets, license request, shapefiles and more, please switch to a desktop or laptop computer. Thank you for your understanding.

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A homogenised collection of ground motion metadata files ('flatfiles') from around the world Products Global Ground Motion Flatfile A homogenised collection of ground motion metadata files ('flatfiles') from around the world Share Facebook LinkedIn Description GEM's Global Flatfile is a fully homogenised collection of publicly available ground-motion flatfiles and datasets. This dataset has been created with the purpose of facilitating ground-motion modelling/characterization activities. It contains metadata (but not waveforms) for over 750,000 unique recordings of over 40,000 unique events which have been tectonically classified by GEM, and it is supplemented with additional information from GEM's Global Homogenised Earthquake Catalogue where appropriate. The flatfile is formatted to work readily with the residual analysis capabilities of the Strong-Motion Tools (SMT) module of the OpenQuake Model Builder's Toolkit. How to cite this work Brooks, C., Pagani, M., & Villani, M. (2026). GEM Global Flatfile (Version v2026) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20732303 Available Versions The latest version (v2026) will soon be available on Zenodo for direct download under a CC BY-SA 4.0 license. Users interested in this version can click the "Open Version Download" button in the right panel to access the information. If your use case does not comply with the license terms, a license can be requested by clicking on the "License Request", where a specific agreement will be provided, depending on the use case. License information The open version is available under a Creative Commons CC BY-SA 4.0 license, which requires: Attribution (you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made) ShareAlike (derivatives created must be made available under the same license as the original) Any deviation from these terms incur in license infringement and requires a license agreement that must be made tailored to your use case, in such instance please click on "License Request". Facebook LinkedIn Share Latest Version v2026 License CC BY-SA 4.0 Available resources Open Version Download License Request text Map View Search Popup title Close Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Preview Preview is not available. Related products Related publications For downloading or accessing detailed product information like PNG/PDF maps, datasets, license request, shapefiles and more, please switch to a desktop or laptop computer. Thank you for your understanding.

License Request Form You have chosen to get more information about: Antarctica Hazard Hazard Please check the link below to see if this product already meets your your requirements before submitting your request for a license. Thank you. DOWNLOAD THE OPEN VERSION Summary of steps to obtain a license for the requested product. Fill in the application form below. Click Submit. Please check your email Inbox or Spam folder for the summary of your request. You will then be contacted by the GEM Product Manager with either a request for more information, or a request to sign the license. If you do not hear from us within 2 weeks, please send an email to product@globalquakemodel.org . REQUEST DETAILS A. Requesting party information First Name Last Name Role/Job Email Business type Business type Other business Sector Sector Other sector B. License agreement signatory information The signatory must be someone who is authorised to sign license agreements on your behalf such as your immediate supervisor, manager or legal officer. If you’re a PhD student, the signatory must be your adviser or a university officer in charge of license agreements or similar legal documents. Full Name of Signatory Position Company Email of Signatory Organisation name Complete Address C. Purpose of request GEM is able to offer products for free because of the support of our project partners, national collaborators and institutional sponsors. All of GEM’s products are freely available for public good, non-commercial use, but with different license restrictions. In most cases we release products under an open license (e.g., CC BY-SA or CC BY-NC-SA), which permits (re)distribution. In this case, we are granting access under a more restricted license that forbids distribution or disclosure and requires signing by GEM and the licensee in order to better assure accountability for the confidentiality of the information. In order for GEM to properly assess your request, please answer the following questions below. 1. Explain briefly how will the GEM product be used e.g. project, research including the expected results and the foreseen public benefit. Minimum 60 words. 2. Will you be able to share the results of your work with GEM? YES NO 3. Will you be able to provide feedback to GEM on the quality and usefulness of this product via a survey? YES NO D. Privacy Policy By submitting this form, you consent to the processing of your personal data in accordance with our Privacy Policy and the EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). We are committed to safeguarding your information and ensuring it is only used for the purpose outlined in this form. You have the right to access, rectify, or delete your data at any time. For more information, please refer to our Privacy Policy. I agree Words: 0 Email us at product@globalquakemodel.org if you're experiencing problems submitting your application. Thank you. Submit Thanks for submitting! You will be contacted as soon as possible Incomplete data. Please fill in all required fields. Thank you.