Projects SSAHARA Project Sub Saharan Hazard and Risk Assessment (SSAHARA) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Background The East African Rift System (EARS) is the major active tectonic feature of the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Although the seismicity level of such a divergent plate boundary can be described as moderate, several damaging earthquakes have been reported in historical times, and the seismic risk is exacerbated by the high vulnerability of the local buildings and structures. Formulation and enforcement of national seismic codes is therefore an essential risk mitigation strategy. A reliable risk assessment must be based on an updated and reliable seismic hazard model for the region. The last published regional model for SSA was developed within the frame of the GSHAP project and is almost 20 years old (Midzi et al., 1999). The availability of new data, local and regional seismotectonic studies and recently developed methods and tools prompt the development of a new PSHA model summarizing the current state of knowledge in Sub-Saharan Africa. Objectives In September 2014, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) GEM funding support to implement a program entitled “Reducing Earthquake Risk collaboratively by Building Capacity and Leveraging GEM’s Open Tools and Resources”. One of the objectives of this program was: to build the capacity in sub-Saharan Africa for integrated risk assessment and development of city earthquake scenarios involving local decision-makers. The project produced the SSA-GEM homogenized catalogue; the Seismic Source Zones; the Probabilistic Hazard Calculations; the Strain Rate Model; earthquake risk in East Sub-Saharan Africa; the residential building stock; and the Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk in Sub Sahara Africa. Collaborators The development of a regional model would not have been possible without the contribution of experts from the local scientific community. Partnership with local governmental institutions and authorities was an essential step to facilitate model acceptance and for potential integration with national seismic codes. GEM worked with the following institutions for the implementation of the SSAHARA project. African Union; AfricaArray; FEPRA – Ethiopia; University of Pennsylvania; Addis Ababa City Government; UNDP Regional Office; and international agencies, municipalities and government agencies Location Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda Website SSAHARA wiki website containing technical descriptions and overview of the project. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 News Preventionweb article on the release of the Africa Model developed as part of the Sub-Sahara Hazard and Risk Assessment (SSAHARA) project funded by USAID. Anchor3 Publications Disclaimer The contents of this project website such as studies, reports, audio-visual, news articles, blogs, and other information or media products including those in the external links are made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

Projects SIGMA3 SeismIc hazard and Ground Motion Assessment Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Work Packages Training Dissemination Photos Publications Anchor 6 Overview SIGMA3 is a research and development (R&D) program on SeIsmic hazard and Ground Motion Assessment. It is the 3rd part of a larger R&D initiative initiated in 2011 to support innovation in the field of probabilistic hazard assessment (PSHA). SIGMA3 is fully funded by the industry at 100%. The program grounds its roots in methodological developments, as well as in the identified shortcomings of the two preceding editions, labelled SIGMA and SIGMA2. The previous two programs have led to insightful datasets and models to accompany the inception of probabilistic site-specific PSHA studies in low-to-moderate seismicity areas, such as France, for instance. However, nowadays, additional progress is still needed to reduce epistemic uncertainties and improve confidence in probabilistic seismic hazard studies. To this end, SIGMA3 gathers a group of researchers and engineers actively involved in the seismic hazard community and recognized for their expertise. More details about the project are available here: https://sigma-programs.com/ Objectives The SIGMA program is a Research and Development project about seismic hazard and ground motion. It has the objective to improve data and develop methods necessary to best estimate SHA by producing Hazard levels more adapted to the site. Improve available practices for safety demonstration to get consensus with the largest international community for R&D and industrial applications Improve confidence and accountability in seismic hazard assessments by quantifying and propagating uncertainties on Seismic Source and Ground Motion Characterization Strengthen the link between seismologists and engineers, and share feedback among consortium members Collaborators Steering Committee The Steering Committee handles strategic and technical decision-making in the SIGMA3 program and provides recommendations on the program’s orientation, informed by the Scientific Committee’s expertise. Composition: Emmanuel Viallet (EDF France), Fabrice Hollender (CEA France), Vojtech Spanihel (CEZ Group Czech Republic), Masato Nakajima (CRIEPI Japan), Albert Kottke (PG&E USA), Fabienne Chawla (SwissNuclear Switzerland), Ludovic Fulop (VTT Finland) Scientific Committee The members of the SIGMA3 Scientific Committee are independent experts in their field, providing recommendations, insights, and reviews on activities performed through the program. Composition: Philippe RENAULT (Chairperson), Norman ABRAHAMSON, Laurent BOLLINGER, Emmanuel CHALJUB, Maria José CRESPO, John DOUGLAS, Zeynep GULERCE, Sadanori HIGASHI, Pierre LABBE, Ian MAIN, Adrian RODRIGUEZ-MAREK, Alain PECKER, Gabriel TORO, Kris VANNESTE, Jérôme VERGNE Location Global (coordinating agency located in France) Sigma 3 Technical Program Supported by ´Electricité de France (EDF), GEM’s activities cover three work packages: For more details on Sigma3's work packages (WP), click here . 1. Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis. This activity builds upon work carried out in 2024 within the framework of a collaboration with OGS, Trieste. 2. Development and methodologies for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. In this WP, we will further develop capabilities to compute the conditional aftershock hazard and propagate epistemic uncertainties efficiently. 3. Development of a Simulation Platform. The objective of this activity is to generate a set of Python tools for evaluating fundamental components of a hazard input model - namely, source, ground motion, and site effects - used in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) computations. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Conferences and Events For the latest events, training, seminars/webinars and conferences, please visit: https://sigma-programs.com/dissemination-sigma-3/conferences-and-events/ Anchor 4 SIGMA3 - SeismIc hazard and Ground Motion Assessment This section contains outreach activities conducted by the SIGMA3 program. For more details, click here . 1. News - https://sigma-programs.com/dissemination-sigma-3/news/ 2. Conferences and Events - https://sigma-programs.com/dissemination-sigma-3/conferences-and-events/ Anchor3 BUSINESS NEWS 1st General Assembly - June 2025, Helsinki (Finland) 1/1 BUSINESS NEWS Sigma3 Kick-Off - 11 June 2024, Aix-en-Provence (France) 1/1 Publications SIGMA3 - Publications and Reports This section contains project publications and reports as they become available. The list of currently available materials can be accessed here: https://sigma-programs.com/sigma-3/dissemination-sigma-3/publications-reports/

Projects ARISTOTLE Multi-Hazard Expert Advice System for ERCC Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The All Risk Integrated System TOwards Trans-boundary hoListic Early-warning or ARISTOTLE consortium combines a number of services that enable a rapid understanding of events from various natural hazards (earthquakes and tsunami, volcanoes, severe weather and floods) and how they might unfold, thus aiding a deeper interpretation of the resulting hazards and impact. The GEM Foundation is supporting the consortium by providing an assessment of the impact of earthquakes using GEM's global exposure and vulnerability models, with a focus on metrics such as collapsed buildings and displaced people, such that it may provide an added value to existing rapid loss assessment services such as the USGS's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). Visit http://pilot.aristotle.ingv.it/ for more details about the project. Duration: 2022 - 2028 Objectives ARISTOTLE aims to provide Multi-Hazard Advice to the European Research Coordination Centre, either in advance of / during the activation of the EC Civil Protection Mechanism (CPM), in order to increase preparedness and response levels of the EU and to improve the ERCC’s assessment capacity. Collaborators ARISTOTLE is a multi-disciplinary partnership consisting of world-leading scientific centres in the areas of Earth and Climate sciences, providing operational and monitoring services, early warning and information systems as well as contributing to innovation and research actions. Location Global (Rome, Italy) Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects TREQ Project Training and Communication for Earthquake Risk Assessment (TREQ) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Risk Assessment Training Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Summary The Training and Communication for Earthquake Risk Assessment (TREQ) Project was designed to demonstrate how earthquake hazard and risk assessment can inform decision makers in the development of risk reduction policies, as well as how earthquake risk can be properly communicated to stakeholders and the public in general. [PDF Executive Summary English ] Objectives The project was organized into two main parts. The first one aimed to develop capacity for urban earthquake hazard and risk assessment in Latin America, Quito (Ecuador), Cali (Colombia), and Santiago de los Caballeros (Dominican Republic); while the second part was to develop training, educational and communication material to enhance the understanding of earthquake risk worldwide. The program was tailored for a wide spectrum of stakeholders, categorized into four main groups: governance (decision-makers/public authorities), industry (practitioners and professionals), academia (researchers and professors), and the community. Collaborators Ecuador Municipalidad de Quito Escuela Politécnica Nacional (EPN) Instituto Geofísico (IG) Colegio de Ingenieros Civiles de Pichincha (CICP) Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador Dominican Republic Municipalidad de Santiago de los Caballeros Servicio Geológico Nacional (SGN) Oficina Nacional de Evaluación Sísmica y Vulnerabilidad de Infraestructuras y Edificaciones (ONESVIE) Comité Técnico Nacional (CTN) Pontificia Universidad Católica Madre y Maestra (PUCMM) Colombia Municipalidad de Santiago de Cali Servicio Geológico Colombiano (SGC) Departamento Administrativo de Planeación Municipal (DAPM), Cali Universidad EAFIT, Medellin Unidad Nacional de Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres (UNGRD) Costa Rica Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR) Mexico Universidad Autónoma de Baja California (UABC) Location Quito (Ecuador), Cali (Colombia), and Santiago de los Caballeros (Dominican Republic) Urban risk assessment in Latin America and the Caribbean The following deliverables were generated in this component: seismic hazard and risk assessment at the urban scale for the three TREQ cities: Quito (Ecuador), Cali (Colombia), and Santiago de los Caballeros (Dominican Republic). State-of-art models were developed for each city in close collaboration with local partners. The input models and results are available at the URL address below: [github.com/gem/treq-riesgo-urbano/ ] a. City reports Seismic Risk Assessment for the Metropolitan District of Quito [Evaluación de Riesgo Sísmico para el Distrito Metropolitano de Quito] [Español ] Seismic Risk Assessment for Santiago de Cali [Evaluación de Riesgo Sísmico para Santiago de Cali] [Español ] Seismic Risk Assessment for Santiago de los Caballeros [Evaluación de Riesgo Sísmico para Santiago de los Caballeros] [Español ] b. Seismic Hazard Assessment PSHA models and datasets for urban hazard assessment [Modelos probabilísticos de amenaza sísmica (PSHA) y conjuntos de datos para la evaluación de la amenaza a nivel urbano] [PDF English ] Probabilistic seismic hazard model for the Dominican Republic [Modelo Probabilístico de Amenaza Sísmica para la República Dominicana] [PDF English | Español ] [Download Model ] Seismic hazard results (rock and soil conditions) [Resultados de amenaza sísmica (condiciones en roca y en suelo)] [PDF English ] Seismic hazard analysis at the urban scale [Análisis de la amenaza sísmica a escala urbana] [PDF English ] c. Seismic Risk Assessment Executive summary Urban seismic risk assessment for the cities of Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros [Resumen ejecutivo sobre la evaluación del riesgo sísmico urbano para las ciudades de Quito, Cali y Santiago de los Caballeros] [PDF English ] Building classes in Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros [Tipologías constructivas en Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros] [PDF Español ] Geo-referenced exposure database of population and buildings in the TREQ city [Base de datos de exposición georreferenciada de población y edificios en cada ciudad de TREQ] [Cali ] [Quito ] [Santiago ] Database of fragility and vulnerability functions for each building class present in the exposure model [Base de datos de funciones de fragilidad y vulnerabilidad para cada clase de edificio presente en el modelo de exposición] [Data ] Maps and risk metrics generated for each city [Mapas y métricas de riesgo para cada ciudad] [Cali ] [Quito ] [Santiago ] d. City scenarios Database with ruptures selected for scenario analysis [Base de datos con rupturas seleccionadas para análisis de escenarios] [Cali ] [Quito ] [Santiago ] Scenario hazard assessment for the representative earthquakes in Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros [Evaluación del escenarios de amenaza para sismos representativos en Quito, Cali y Santiago de los Caballeros] [PDF English ] e. Urban Applications Earthquake induced landslides and liquefaction in Cali [Deslizamientos y licuefacción inducidos por sismo en Cali] [PDF English ] Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Improving global capacity for seismic hazard and risk This part of the program was designed to improve the understanding and awareness of earthquake hazard and risk, and to help bridge the gap between the information produced in detailed hazard and risk assessment studies and its communication to a wide variety of stakeholders (which range from local experts with the remit to assess seismic risk to decision-makers responsible for the implementation of risk reduction measures). a. Website for OpenQuake online training The OpenQuake online training was designed for different types of audience with diverse background and expertise. Through this platform, participants interacted with GEM scientific and technical teams to learn the main concepts of earthquake risk assessment, along with the basic features of the engine. [English | Español ] b. OpenQuake manual in online format The official manual has been converted from latex into reStructuredText format made possible by @USAID support. The new manual is now online in HTML format and can be accessed at: [Webpage English ] c. Video tutorials on seismic hazard and risk analysis using OpenQuake The project has produced 15 videos on technical training using the OpenQuake-engine (in English and Spanish), 7 videos with material to disseminate the models and results of urban risk assessment in the TREQ cities, and 2 videos for communicating earthquake risk to the general public. OQ Engine Video Tutorials [ English | Español ] d. Manual to perform seismic hazard analysis This manual presents the basic concepts of classical PSHA and the wide spectrum of alternatives to model seismicity and uncertainties (epistemic and aleatory) in the OpenQuake-engine. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is the principal methodology for assessing the potential hazard posed by earthquakes. The hazard maps generated with the hazard calculator are widely used in national seismic codes for hazard zonation and structural design provisions. [PDF English ] [Example materials ] [More info ] e. Training the Trainers TREQ has engaged and collaborated with five university professors from Latin America to conceptualize, create and implement a unified course for the study of seismic risk at the university level. Brochures in English and Spanish further explain the concept behind this initiative and outline the early results and experiences of the professors from Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala and Mexico. [PDF English | Español ] Anchor 4 Communicating and raising earthquake risk awareness The activities in this component focused on raising awareness of the public on earthquake hazard and risk by training a diverse group of disaster risk reduction (DRR) professionals together with personnel in charge of communicating risk to the public, and by conducting community-based workshops in selected areas of the pilot cities by those who were trained by the project. a. Educational material to raise seismic risk awareness: Application for the Metropolitan Area of Aburra Valley (AMVA) [Material didáctico para sensibilizar a la comunidad sobre el riesgo sísmico: Aplicación para el área Metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá (AMVA)] [PDF Español ] b. Video to communicate earthquake risk to the general public [Video para comunicar el riesgo de terremoto al público en general] [English | Español ] c. Guidelines for teachers for the development of an introductory course on seismic risk [Guía para profesores para el desarrollo de un curso introductorio de riesgo sísmico] [PDF Español ] d. Urban risk mitigation and response profiles for the TREQ cities [Perfiles de respuesta y mitigación de riesgos urbanos para las ciudades TREQ] [Cali ] [Quito ] [Santiago ] News articles Events Understanding seismic risk through capacity development and knowledge sharing webinar draws hundreds of participants from around the world [Article ] [Event page English | Español ] [Video ] Presentation of the national PSHA model for the Dominican Republic: a joint webinar hosted by Servicio Geológico Nacional Dominicano in cooperation with GEM, Oficina Nacional de Evaluación Sísmica y Vulnerabilidad de Infraestructura. and USAID's Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance . [Event flyer Español ] [Video English | Español ] ---- Articles Raising Earthquake Risk Awareness: TREQ’s community workshops for the general public Urban hazard assessment of selected cities in Latin America Local solutions to global problems: reducing disaster risk through collaboration and openness TREQ Project Updates: Site Effects Modelling and Urban Exposure Models USGS has joined the TREQ initiative for urban earthquake scenarios TREQ capacity building: OQ online training updates Jan-Feb 2021 TREQ2020 – Capacity development and OpenQuake online training, year in review TREQ OpenQuake Online Training: Earthquake Scenarios - Ground Motion Fields Sept 2020 More at GEM News section Newsletter The TREQ project newsletter was intented to share activities in urban risk assessment, and earthquake risk training and education materials with a wide-range of local stakeholders from the academia, private and public sectors, as well as the civil society in Latin America, the Caribbean and beyond. Newsletter no. 3 - May 2021 Newsletter no. 2 - September 2020 Newsletter no. 1 - March 2020 Maiden issue [English ] Maiden issue [Españo ] Anchor3 BUSINESS NEWS More TREQ photos here Facebook album 1/4 BUSINESS NEWS Raising Risk Awareness: workshops for the general public 1/4 BUSINESS NEWS March 2020 Project Kickoff 1/4 BUSINESS NEWS Photos from the November 2020 OpenQuake Online training 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS Meetings in Quito 1/10 BUSINESS NEWS Meetings in Guayaquil 1/1 Publications Overview TREQ Executive Summary [English ] Seismic Hazard Assessment PSHA models and datasets for urban hazard assessment [English ] Probabilistic seismic hazard model for the Dominican Republic [English | Español ] [Download Model ] Seismic Hazard Results (rock and soil conditions) [English ] Seismic hazard analysis at the urban scale [English ] Seismic Risk Assessment Executive summary Urban seismic risk assessment for the cities of Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros [English ] Building classes in Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros [Español ] City Scenarios Scenario selection for representative earthquakes in Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros [English ] Urban applications Earthquake-induced liquefaction and landslides in Cali, Colombia [English ] City reports Seismic Risk Assessment for the Metropolitan District of Quito [Español ] Seismic Risk Assessment for Santiago de Cali [Español ] Seismic Risk Assessment for Santiago de los Caballeros [Español ] Training and communicating earthquake risk Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) Training Manual [English ] [Example materials ] [More info ] Educational material to raise seismic risk awareness: Application for the Metropolitan Area of Aburra Valley (AMVA) [Español ] Guidelines for teachers for the development of an introductory course on seismic risk [Español ] Disclaimer The contents of this project website such as studies, reports, audio-visual, news articles, blogs, and other information or media products including those in the external links are made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

Projects WB-Istanbul Seismic impact scenarios for Istanbul Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background Türkiye is situated in a seismically active region, with a history of significant earthquakes that have led to substantial loss of life, economic disruption, and damage to infrastructure. The country's rapid urbanization and the presence of numerous buildings constructed before the introduction of modern building codes contribute to its vulnerability to seismic events. Istanbul, Türkiye’s largest city, is of particular concern due to its high population density, economic significance, and the potential impact of a major earthquake. The city has a mix of old and new structures, with many residential buildings constructed before the year 2000, when the country's modern building codes were introduced. These older structures are often not designed to withstand significant seismic forces, making them particularly susceptible to damage or collapse in the event of an earthquake. Given this context, there is a critical need to understand the costs associated with retrofitting and reconstructing buildings to meet current seismic safety standards. The World Bank was interested in preparing accurate unit cost estimations for both reconstruction and retrofitting scenarios. Such estimations are essential for planning, budgeting, and implementing risk reduction activities. Additionally, preparing seismic impact scenarios for Istanbul is imperative to quantify the potential post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction costs, identify the most vulnerable structures, and inform prioritization of interventions that can mitigate the risks posed by earthquakes. Duration: 2024 Objectives The objectives of this Consultancy were: Provide information on the cost per square meter (USD) for reconstruction and various retrofitting options in the case of Türkiye for pre-2000 residential buildings, considering emerging information from the 2023 earthquakes on building performance/vulnerability. Provide seismic impact scenarios for the Istanbul metropolitan area, with disaggregated information on building types, building age, and spatial areas, considering at least four different earthquake scenarios. The analysis was expected to consider damage estimates (considering pre-earthquake costs), as well as recovery and reconstruction costs that consider build back better, emergency response costs, surge pricing, etc. Collaborators Collaborators: GEM Foundation Funding partner: World Bank Group Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects SERA Project Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research Infrastructure Alliance for Europe (SERA) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research Infrastructure Alliance for Europe (SERA) aims to reduce the risk posed by natural and anthropogenic earthquakes based on innovative research and development projects. SERA will significantly improve the access to data, services and research infrastructures for scientists and other professionals. GEM's contributions focus on taxonomy and exposure of residential, commercial and industrial buildings in Europe; physical vulnerability assessment for buildings; integrated earthquake risk analysis using the risk assessment framework and OpenQuake software established by the Global Earthquake Model. SERA is a Horizon 2020-supported programme responding to the priorities identified in the topic INFRAIA-01-2016-2017 ‘Integrating Activities for Advanced Communities’. SERA involves 31 partners and 8 linked third parties in Europe. It started in May 2017 and will last for three years. Objectives The EUCENTRE-SERA project is collaborating closely with the GEM Foundation (Global Earthquake Model) to: develop a European Risk Modelling framework that brings together the strengths of previous projects such as SHARE, NERA and fills in the research gaps; integrate knowledge and data from other SERA working packages; and build on the risk assessment framework and software developed by GEM. SERA is engaging 31 partners from 16 European countries. They all have leading expertise in the operation of experimental facilities, monitoring infrastructures, and data repositories in the fields of seismology, anthropogenic hazards or earthquake engineering. (complete list ) Location Europe Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 EM-SERA OpenQuake Training in Istanbul, Turkey SERA European Building Exposure Workshop: From European Hazard to Risk Anchor3 Publications

Projects CAREC Developing a Disaster Risk Transfer Facility in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outreach Anchor 6 Background Willis Towers Watson, a GEM Advisor Sponsor is leading the consortium of organizations to implement the project, “Developing a Disaster Risk Transfer Facility in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region” supported by the Asian Development Bank. The GEM Risk Team is responsible for the exposure and seismic vulnerability components of the project, with the Hazard Team providing support in the preparation of risk profiles for countries in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region. Objectives The project has three main components: (i) development of disaster risk assessments and modeling in all CAREC countries; (ii) design of a regional pilot disaster risk transfer facility for at least three CAREC countries; and (iii) capacity building and awareness raising activities to sensitize key public and private stakeholders in all CAREC countries about the benefits of disaster risk reduction, risk retention and risk transfer solutions. Willis Towers Watson, a GEM Advisor Sponsor is leading the consortium of organizations that will implement the project. The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, or CAREC Program is a partnership of 11 countries (Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, People's Republic of China, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), supported by 6 multilateral institutions, working together to promote development through cooperation, leading to accelerated growth and poverty reduction. Location Central Asia Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 About the CAREC program Read more GEM has started a new project with WTW supported by the Asian Development Bank Read more ADB project overview and data sheet Read more Anchor3 Publications

Projects BANGLADESH Earthquake Vulnerability and Systemic Risk Assessment in Bangladesh Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Background This project follows a specific support request made by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office (UNRCO) for a sub-national earthquake hazard and risk assessment in Bangladesh. The GEM Foundation has the role of technical expert lead of the project which will include the following activities: Needs and Gaps Assessment Technical Panel Formation and Initial Consultations Seismic Hazard Mapping Exposure Mapping Seismic Vulnerability Assessment Seismic Risk Mapping and Interpretation Stakeholder Consultation and Validation Preliminary Model Dissemination and Training Workshop Funding and technical partner: UNDRR Duration: 2023 - 2024 Objectives The main objective of this project is to develop a detailed, open, sub-national earthquake risk model and evaluate seismic risk for Bangladesh at the zila and upazila levels. The complete risk model will comprise a probabilistic seismic hazard model, a building exposure model, and a seismic fragility and vulnerability model for the building stock of Bangladesh. Additionally, it includes critical scenarios for key cities, identified based on the results of the probabilistic risk assessment and in consultation with local stakeholders and experts, in a panel led by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR), and including representatives from the Ministry of Housing and Public Works, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Geological Survey of Bangladesh, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, and University of Dhaka.` Collaborators In collaboration with the GEM Foundation, the Technical Panel steering this seismic risk assessment initiative is a collaborative assembly of key stakeholders and experts. Led by the Additional Secretary of Bangladesh's Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR), it comprises representatives from vital entities, including the Department Of Disaster Management (DDM), the Fire Service and Civil Defence of Bangladesh, the Ministry of Housing & Public Works (MoHPW), and the Statistics and Informatics Division (SID) of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). In addition, the panel includes the participation of seasoned national experts specializing in seismic hazard and risk assessment from institutions such as the University of Dhaka (DU), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), and Jahangirnagar University (JU). Further enriching the panel's knowledge base are contributions from the Geological Survey of Bangladesh, the Centre for Urban Studies (CUS), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Bangladesh.) Location Bangladesh Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment Results This section summarises the various assessments conducted to understand the potential impact of earthquakes in Bangladesh. These assessments cover a range of factors, including the likelihood and severity of ground shaking, liquefaction potential, exposure of people and buildings, vulnerability of infrastructure, and the overall seismic risk posed to the country. The following list details the outputs generated from each assessment. Bangladesh Profiles | Past Earthquakes **ALL RESULTS ARE PRELIMINARY AND UNDER REVIEW** a. Population and Building Exposure Exposure models play a critical role in seismic risk assessment by quantifying the potential exposure of buildings and infrastructure to earthquake hazards. These models are structured databases that catalogue the characteristics of buildings within a specific geographic area, including their location, construction material, age, occupancy type, and structural design. The depth and accuracy of this data directly influence the effectiveness of the seismic risk evaluations, as they allow for a detailed understanding of how different structures are likely to perform during an earthquake. Download Files b. Infrastructure Exposure In addition to residential, industrial, and commercial structures that were previously covered by GEM’s exposure models at the zila level (which have been updated to the upazila level during this project), we have also developed exposure models for the healthcare and educational facilities at the country, including all hospitals and clinics, and all schools, colleges, and universities. Map | Profile c. Earthquake Scenarios The project also constructed the rupture geometries for these events, selected a range of ground motion models, and assessed the potential impact—both in terms of damage and losses—that each event could inflict on the country if it were to occur today. The full scenario set consists of twelve events: seven historical events from 1664-1918, chosen out of many in this period, supplemented by five hypothetical events. Download Files d. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment The seismic hazard modelling and mapping section describes the approach taken to assess the seismic hazard in Bangladesh with the goal of creating a comprehensive seismic hazard model for Bangladesh that can be used for risk assessment and mitigation. The project started with a probabilistic seismic hazard model for the Indian subcontinent, which was updated and implemented for the OpenQuake engine. The model includes seismogenic source models, ground motion models, and considers various tectonic regions. This section also mentions the review of the seismic source model for northeast India and the improvements made to the model. Download Files e. Liquefaction Hazard Assessment The section "Liquefaction susceptibility and hazard assessment" discusses the inclusion of regional liquefaction occurrence models in the project, which predict ground failure using existing mapped information and above-ground inferences of below-ground conditions. These models were used for the national scale liquefaction hazard assessment in the second phase of the project identifying the factors that contribute to liquefaction, the methods used for assessment, and the potential damage and losses that can result from liquefaction. Download Files f. Seismic Risk Assessment The project estimated seismic risk metrics utilising the OpenQuake-engine's stochastic event-based risk assessment calculator. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis model was employed to generate earthquake rupture forecasts, forming a stochastic event set over a 100,000-year span. Economic and human losses were computed for each event, producing event loss tables and year loss tables. Risk metrics included exceedance probability curves and average annualized losses. Fatality and injury estimates relied on vulnerability models informed by global earthquake data, with a focus on South Asian building characteristics. Results were tabulated nationally and regionally by the project. The assessment also considers the exposure and risk of healthcare facilities, educational facilities, and the national road network to seismic hazards. Download Files Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Improving global capacity for seismic hazard and risk This part of the program was designed to improve the understanding and awareness of earthquake hazard and risk, and to help bridge the gap between the information produced in detailed hazard and risk assessment studies and its communication to a wide variety of stakeholders (which range from local experts with the remit to assess seismic risk to decision-makers responsible for the implementation of risk reduction measures). a. Website for OpenQuake online training The OpenQuake online training was designed for different types of audiences with diverse backgrounds and expertise. Through this platform, participants interact with GEM scientific and technical teams to learn the main concepts of earthquake risk assessment, along with the basic features of the engine. [English ] b. Onsite Training Workshop One-day workshop designed to improve the understanding and awareness of earthquake hazard and risk and to help bridge the gap between the information produced in the project and its communication to a wide variety of stakeholders. The session allowed participants to explore and prepare the required input files for earthquake scenarios in the OpenQuake engine. OQ Engine Video Tutorials | English | Example Material Anchor 4 Communicating and raising earthquake risk awareness The activities in this component focused on raising the awareness of the public on earthquake hazard and risk by training a diverse group of disaster risk reduction (DRR) professionals together with personnel in charge of communicating risk to the public, and by conducting community-based workshops in selected areas of the pilot cities by those who were trained by the project. Speech by Domenico Scalpelli (WFP Representative) on the presentation of the Earthquake Risk Assessment Results The speech was delivered on March 6, 2024 at Six Season Hotel, Hall Room, Bunka, Bangladesh (10:00 am to 12:30 pm). "While Bangladesh has been fortunate to avoid a significant earthquake in the past century, historical data suggests earthquakes are a threat. This analysis, considering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, provides a foundation for evidence-based decision-making to guide preventive measures, enhance preparedness, and fortify our ability to respond." Read more | UNDRR Bangladesh article a. GEM presentation to the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR), Bangladesh This is an introductory presentation on Bangladesh's earthquake risk assessment project that outlines past efforts, emphasises the need for a nationwide evaluation, and introduces the GEM Foundation's methodology. It highlights completed division-level risk maps and ongoing project activities like data collection, vulnerability assessment, and stakeholder engagement. Additionally, five other presentations below will address different aspects of the project in Bangladesh. View Presentation b. Technical Panel Session #1 This presentation discusses the methodology used to collect and process data related to earthquake risk components such as hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. It also mentions the project activities and the formation of a technical panel for consultation and validation. View Presentation c. Technical Panel Session (PSHA) #2 This presentation is about the tailored version of the PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) model for the Indian sub-continent, which is based on the original model developed by Nath and Thingbaijam in 2012. The presentation discusses the main areas identified for improvement in the model, the changes that were introduced, and the impact of these changes on the hazard results. View Presentation d. Technical Panel Session (Scenario Ruptures) #2 This presentation is about the hazard analysis of earthquakes in Bangladesh, including an overview of the fault systems, historical ruptures, and potential ruptures. It also mentions the ground motion models used for the analysis. View Presentation e. Technical Panel Session #3 This presentation focuses on exposure and physical and social vulnerability, as components of seismic risk. It discusses the details of exposure models, seismic vulnerability analysis, and social vulnerability. The presentation also mentions the use of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the INFORM Index in assessing and understanding the seismic risk in Bangladesh. View Presentation f. Technical Panel Session (Scenarios and Risk) #4 This presentation details data collection and processing methods for seismic hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. It presents preliminary results on potential earthquake impacts like building collapse and economic loss using an 1885 event as an example. The presentation also mentions probabilistic risk assessment and division-level risk maps, alongside details about 12 "scenario ruptures" based on historical and potential earthquake events. View Presentation g. Technical Panel Session (Liquefaction) #4 This presentation focuses on factors such as soil liquefaction, susceptibility to ground failure, population density, urbanisation, and the country's river delta geography. It discusses various methodologies and models used to assess liquefaction hazard and suggests the use of geospatial methodologies for identifying areas with a higher likelihood of occurrence. View Presentation h. Final UNDRR-GEM Bangladesh - MoDMR Presentation This presentation summarises the findings of a sub-national earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Bangladesh, conducted by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation in collaboration with MoDMR, UNDRR and UNRCO. It details the development of a comprehensive earthquake risk model for Bangladesh at the district and sub-district levels. The presentation covers the methodologies employed, including assessments of seismic hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Stakeholder engagement and the final earthquake risk model for Bangladesh are also presented. View Presentation Videos - Ruptures, PSHA and Liquefaction The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation presents insights into the Bangladesh earthquake risk assessment project. These presentations will explore scenario earthquakes, a customized seismic hazard model, and the assessment of earthquake-induced liquefaction hazards. 1. Scenario earthquakes for Bangladesh hazard and risk analysis by Richard Styron This presentation explores the concept of scenario earthquakes and their role in analysing earthquake hazards and risks in Bangladesh. Richard Styron will discuss the specific scenarios considered for Bangladesh, providing insights for understanding potential earthquake impacts. Watch 2. PSHA Model for Indian sub-continent: tailored version of Nath and Thingbaijam (2012) by Kendra Johnson Kendra Johnson will present a tailored version of the PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) model developed by Nath and Thingbaijam (2012) for the Indian subcontinent. This presentation will explain how this model has been adapted to provide a more accurate assessment of earthquake hazards specific to Bangladesh. Watch 3. Earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard assessment: scenario and probabilistic analysis by Lana Todorovic This presentation by Lana Todorovic focuses on earthquake-induced liquefaction, a major concern in Bangladesh due to its river delta geography. Lana will discuss both scenario-based and probabilistic approaches to assessing liquefaction hazard, providing valuable information for mitigating this specific earthquake risk. Watch Anchor3 BUSINESS NEWS March 6 presentation Humanitarian Organisations 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS March 5 OpenQuake Training 1/4 BUSINESS NEWS March 4 presentation 1/1 BUSINESS NEWS March 3 meeting with MoDRM 1/2 BUSINESS NEWS Images from online meetings: September to December 2023 1/1 Publications Interim Substantive Reports The documents below are interim substantive reports on the project "Earthquake Vulnerability and Systemic Risk Assessment in Bangladesh". The main objective of the project is to develop a detailed earthquake risk model for Bangladesh at the zila and upazila levels. They describe the development of an open-source probabilistic seismic risk model for Bangladesh and provide key insights to decision-makers and stakeholders in the disaster risk mitigation community. a. First Interim Substantive Report This report highlights the need for a seismic risk model in the country and discusses the gaps and needs assessment. The report also explains the technical approach and methodology for developing the risk model, including seismic hazard modeling, liquefaction susceptibility and hazard assessment, exposure modeling, and seismic fragility and vulnerability modeling. The seismic risk assessment process is described, along with the formation of a technical panel and stakeholder engagement. Download the Report b. Second Interim Substantive Report This report provides updates on various aspects of the project, including the development of earthquake scenarios, liquefaction susceptibility and hazard assessment, exposure modeling, and social vulnerability modeling. The report mentions that the project has engaged a technical panel comprising key experts and stakeholders, and their feedback and suggestions are being incorporated into the project. The report also includes information on the distribution of hospitals, clinics, schools, and colleges in Bangladesh. Download the Report c. Final Report This report details the findings of a sub-national earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Bangladesh, undertaken by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation. The project fulfills a specific request from the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the UN Resident Coordinator's Office (UNRCO). The project aimed to develop a comprehensive earthquake risk model for Bangladesh at the district and subdistrict levels. This report details the activities undertaken, including needs assessment, technical consultations, hazard and exposure mapping, vulnerability assessment, risk analysis, stakeholder engagement, and final model dissemination. This assessment provides Bangladesh with crucial data to guide earthquake risk reduction efforts nationwide. Download the Report

Projects METEOR Modelling Exposure Through Earth Observation Routines (METEOR) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Background At present, there is a poor understanding of population exposure in some Official Development Assistance (ODA) countries, which causes major challenges when making Disaster Risk Management decisions. Modelling Exposure Through Earth Observation Routines (METEOR) takes a step-change in the application of Earth Observation exposure data by developing and delivering more accurate levels of population exposure to natural hazards. Providing new consistent data to governments, town planners and insurance providers will promote welfare and economic development in these countries and better enable them to respond to the hazards when they do occur. Objectives METEOR aims to formulate an innovative methodology of creating exposure data through the use of EO-based imagery to identify development patterns throughout a country. Stratified sampling technique harnessing traditional land use interpretation methods modified to characterise building patterns can be combined with EO and in-field building characteristics to capture the distribution of building types. These protocols and standards will be developed for broad application to ODA countries and will be tested and validated for both Nepal and Tanzania to assure they are fit-for-purpose. Objectives of the project look to: deliver exposure data for 47 of the least developed ODA countries, including Nepal and Tanzania; create hazard footprints for the specific countries; create open protocol; to develop critical exposure information from EO data; and capacity-building of local decision makers to apply data and assess hazard exposure. Collaborators METEOR Project Consortium The British Geological Survey (BGS) ImageCat National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET) The Disaster Management Department-Tanzania The Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) Oxford Policy Management Limited (OPM) Fathom Location Nepal, Tanzania For more details on the METEOR Project, click read more below to visit the website. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anirudh and Nicole will be producing vulnerability data for different building types to different hazards for Nepal and Tanzania. About 20 project participants from GEM, Tanzania Prime Minister’s Office-Disaster Management Department (DMD), NSET, BGS, HOT OSM, ImageCat and OPM... Modelling Exposure Through Earth Observation Routines: EO-based Exposure, Nepal and Tanzania granted by the UK Space Agency Anirudh Rao and Nicole Paul participated in the quarterly UK Space Agency #METEOR Project meeting and workshops in Kathmandu, Nepal. Anchor3 Publications To download the METEOR Project official deliverables documents, click the Read More button below.

Projects READY2RESPOND Rapid Diagnostic in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background Ready2Respond (R2R) is a rapid diagnostic guide, designed to improve national, sub-national and city resilience mechanisms and to protect development gains through investments in emergency preparedness and response systems. It is informed by the World Bank Group (WBG) City Resilience Program (CRP) and other WBG resilience platforms. In this project R2R is applied to the Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh states in the Himalayan region of India. The GEM Risk Team contributes to the project by providing: Literature review and stakeholder mapping around hazard and risk initiatives, risk data and models for both states Provision of seismic hazard/risk model outputs and related descriptive information for both states (to support diagnostic activities) Review of legal regulation of the built environment and associated initiatives Review of seismic preparedness of the critical infrastructure defined in the project Preparation and remote input into stakeholder workshops Duration: 2023 Objectives This project responds to the need to provide effective and comprehensive diagnosis of the Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh states’ emergency preparedness and response systems in the Himalayan region of India. This enables the World Bank and the government to tailor investments to strengthen institutional capacity and capability, ensure public safety, and limit economic disruption in the face of multiple, and often cascading, geological and hydrometeorological hazards. Collaborators GEM Foundation, JBA Consulting, Geo Climate Risk Solutions (GCRS) Funding partner: World Bank Group Location India Himalayas Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications