The World Bank is developing a thematic Paper on Building Climate and Disaster Resilience in Turkey that will apply a new World Bank Guidance Note on how to prepare resilience and adaptation strategies. The Guidance Note provides a practical guide for designing national strategies for climate change adaptation and resilience. It specifies actions that reflect universal principles of effective climate change adaptation and disaster resilience, emphasizing that each country needs to tailor the relative importance and sequencing of these actions to its specific needs and priorities. Given the best practice of mitigating natural hazards for a more resilient future, and the high risk of catastrophic earthquakes, the adaptation paper needs to consider seismic risk in Turkey. To contribute to the seismic risk component of this adaptation paper, the GEM Risk Team is responsible for the following tasks:
- Assessment of earthquake ground shaking hazard in Turkey
- Definition of the exposure: residential, commercial and industrial buildings; education and healthcare facilities; population
- Assessment of vulnerability/fragility for the exposed elements
- Risk modelling based on the current exposure
- Risk projections to 2030 and 2050 (based on future socio-economic conditions)
The World Bank thematic Paper on Building Climate and Disaster Resilience in Turkey aims to support the Turkish government by providing guidance on how to prepare resilience and adaptation strategies, including those related to earthquakes. The objectives of this project are to:
1. Provide deterministic and probabilistic seismic risk metrics in Turkey for population and selected structure types, to inform macro-economic and public finance analysis (conducted by the World Bank project team).
2. Provide seismic impact analysis for three earthquake scenarios aimed at reducing risk in Turkey to estimate the impact of these interventions on i) loss due to direct damage and ii) fatalities.
Funding partner: World Bank Group