Back to El Salvador Outcomes El Salvador FORCE Project Key Findings for El Salvador Resumen Ejecutivo Proyecto FORCE - Pronóstico y Comunicación de la Amenaza y el Riesgo Sísmico Objetivo Evaluar el riesgo sísmico de El Salvador en sus condiciones actuales, y en los próximos 30 años bajo dos escenarios: manteniendo las prácticas constructivas actuales y adoptando plenamente un código sísmico moderno. Vulnerabilidad Sísmica Actual en El Salvador 40 de cada 100 estructuras expuestas no cumple a cabalidad con normativas sísmicas. $35 de cada $100 dólares invertidos están en estructuras con vulnerabilidad alta o muy alta. 39 de cada 100 personas se encuentran en algún momento del día en edificaciones con vulnerabilidad alta o muy alta. Riesgo Sísmico Actual en El Salvador: ¿Cuánto podemos perder debido a un largo periodo de sismicidad? 128 de cada 1,000 estructuras del inventario nacional se pierden en un promedio anual. $4 millones de cada $1,000 millones invertidos en construcción se pierden en un promedio anual. 2 de cada 100,000 habitantes se pierden en un promedio anual. Crecimiento del Sector Vivienda en El Salvador En los últimos 20 años el número de viviendas ocupadas ha crecido entre un 2% y un 3% anual. Esto implica entre 50 mil y 60 mil viviendas nuevas adicionales en el inventario nacional cada año. Escenario A: ¿Cuál sería nuestro riesgo sísmico en el 2055 si seguimos construyendo de la misma manera? Asumiendo una tasa promedio de crecimiento del sector residencial del 2.5% anual y precios constructivos constantes, en 30 años El Salvador tendría 1.6 millones de edificaciones residenciales nuevas y $165 mil millones adicionales invertidos en el inventario nacional. Siguiendo las mismas prácticas constructivas actuales, esto resultaría en un incremento en el riesgo humano y económico del 22% y 9% respectivamente, en el año 2055. Escenario B: ¿Cuál sería nuestro riesgo sísmico en el 2055 si todos usáramos el código sísmico? Asumiendo una tasa promedio de crecimiento del sector residencial del 2.1% anual y precios constructivos constantes, en 30 años El Salvador tendría 1.1 millones de edificaciones residenciales nuevas y $117 mil millones adicionales invertidos en el inventario nacional. Siguiendo un código sísmico moderno a cabalidad en todas las estructuras nuevas, esto resultaría en una reducción del riesgo cercana a 22% y 38% en términos humanos y económicos respectivamente, en el año 2055. Si desea profundizar en los detalles del proyecto, le invitamos a consultar la página de MARN www.snet.gob.sv/informacion/?area=sismologia

News UNISDR selects Dr. John Schneider to the Expert Group of the Global Risk Assessment Framework (GRAF) By: Jul 12, 2018 Share Facebook LinkedIn The GEM Foundation is proud to announce that Dr. John Schneider has been selected to UNISDR’s Expert Group of the Global Risk Assessment Framework (GRAF). The selection of Dr. Schneider further solidifies GEM’s collaborative partnership with UNISDR, and put GEM in a position to significantly contribute to the implementation of the Sendai Framework, the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The establishment of the Expert Group was one of the principal recommendations of the Expert Meeting on the GRAF held in Geneva on 20-21 November 2017. The group’s initial mission is to provide guidance and direction in the co-design and collaborative development of the GRAF, including strategic, technical, functional and operational aspects. The Expert Group will guide the development and co-creation of a preliminary implementation roadmap, including the definition and possible composition of the GRAF Sub-Working Groups that will need to be established to support the co-design and development process. (UNISDR GRAF, 2018) The first meeting of the Expert Group on the GRAF was held from 13-14 June 2018 in Geneva, Switzerland. Underscoring the importance of GRAF, Dr. Schneider expressed that it was important for the framework to feed into Sendai’s disaster risk reduction plan and global initiatives to reduce disaster losses. He added that the GRAF is needed to pull in the experiences and expertise from the around the globe, and to provide a platform for working collaboratively. The GRAF is composed of 32 individuals from the science community, data providers, modellers and the insurance industry as well as special interest groups such as youth tasked to help UNISDR develop a holistic approach on how to better apply risk knowledge to generate practical solutions that increase resilience. More details of the first meeting can be found here. ( https://www.unisdr.org/archive/58772 ) No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications Earthquake Loss Estimation for the Kathmandu Valley Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2016 | Conference paper The capital city, Kathmandu, is the most developed and populated place in Nepal. The majority of the administrative offices, headquarters, numerous historical monuments, and eight World Heritages sites are in the Kathmandu Valley. However, this region is geologically located on lacustrine sediment basin, characterized by a long history of destructive earthquakes. The past events resulted in great damage of structures, losses of human life’s and property, and interrupted the social development. Therefore, earthquake disaster management is one of the most serious issues in highly seismically active regions such as the Kathmandu Valley. In recent years, the earthquake risk in this area has significantly increased due to uncontrolled development, poor construction practices with no earthquake safety consideration, and lack of awareness amongst the general public and government authorities. In this context, this study explores the realistic situation of earthquake losses due to future earthquakes in Kathmandu Valley. To this end, three municipalities: (a) Kathmandu metropolitan city (KMC), (b) Lalitpur Sub-Metropolitan City (LSMC) and (c) Bhaktapur Municipality (BMC) are selected for study. The earthquake loss estimation in the selected municipalities is performed through the combination of seismic hazard, structural vulnerability, and exposure data. For what concerns the seismic input, various earthquake scenarios considering four seismic sources in Nepal were adopted. Regarding the exposure, data about the type of existing buildings, population, and ward level distribution of building typologies is estimated from the recent national census survey of 2011. The economic losses due to the scenario earthquakes are determined using fragility functions. The commonly used standard fragility curves are adopted for adobe, brick/stone with mud mortar buildings, and brick/stone with cement mortar buildings. For the reinforced concrete structures, a new fragility model was derived considering four construction typologies: i) current construction practices (CCP), ii) structures according to the Nepal buildings code (NBC), iii) structures according to the modified Nepal building code (NBC+) and iv) well designed structures (WDS). In this study, a set of fragility functions is converted into a vulnerability model through a consequences model. Finally, the ward level distribution of damage for each building typology, building losses and the corresponding economic loss for each scenario earthquake is obtained using the OpenQuake-engine. The distribution of damage within the Kathmandu Valley is currently being employing in the development of a shelter model for the region, involving various local authorities and decision makers.

Publications OpenQuake Hazard Modeller's Toolkit - UserGuide Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2017 | User manual The Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit (or HMTK) is a Python 2.7 library of functions written by scientists at the GEM Model Facility, which is intended to provide scientists and engineers with the tools to help create the seismogenic input models that go into the OpenQuake hazard engine. The process of developing building the hazard model is a complex and often challenging one, and whilst many aspect of the practice are relatively common, the choice of certain methods or tools for undertaking each step can be a matter of judgement. The intention of this software is to provide scientists and engineers with the means to apply many of the most commonly used algorithms for preparing seismogenic source models using seismicity and geological data. In forthcoming versions will hope to make available more tools for the current processes indicated here, and to integrate new functionalities for i) merging and homogenisation of earthquake catalogues, ii) calculation of activity rates from geological and geodetic data, iii) testing and interpretation of Ground Motion Prediction Equations, and iv) integration of seismological and geological data and treatment of uncertainty in the construction of seismogenic source zones.

Publications Vulnerability modellers toolkit, an open‑source platform for vulnerability analysis Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2021 | Peer-reviewed Vulnerability functions describe the expected loss for a given ground shaking intensity level and are an essential component in probabilistic seismic risk assessment. This manu-script presents a novel open-source platform for the derivation of analytical fragility and vulnerability models, covering state-of-the-art methodologies, and addressing critical issues in vulnerability modelling such as uncertainty propagation, validation/verification of results and sufficiency/efficiency of intensity measure types. This framework is divided into seven modules designed to guide users through the different stages of analytical vulnerability modelling from the selection of ground motion records to the validation and verification of the models. The platform was implemented in the Python programming language and it is freely accessible through a public GitHub repository. A graphical user interface is included with the toolkit and is intended to be a general-purpose method for modellers to interact with thevulnerability modellers toolkit (VMTK). Experienced users are encouraged to use Python’s scripting capabilities to explore all the features of the VMTK source code and to contribute to future releases of the toolkit. Download link: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/product/vmtk

Publications Seismic Risk Model for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region, China-Considering Epistemic Uncertainty from the Seismic Hazard Models Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2024 | Peer-reviewed This study presents a probabilistic seismic risk model for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China. The model comprises a township-level residential building exposure model, a vulnerability model derived from the Chinese building taxonomy, and a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model. The three components are integrated by a stochastic event-based method of the OpenQuake engine to assess the regional seismic risk in terms of average annual loss and exceedance probability curve at the city, province, and regional levels. The novelty and uniqueness of this study are that a probabilistic seismic risk model for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China is developed by considering the impact of site conditions and epistemic uncertainty from the seismic hazard model.

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News GEM contributes to tripartite seismic hazard workshop in Taiwan By: Dec 16, 2025 Nov 11, 2025 Share Facebook LinkedIn The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation took part in the Taiwan–Japan–New Zealand Seismic Hazard Assessment Workshop, held on 10–11 November 2025 in Yilan, Taiwan. The annual meeting brought together experts from the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM), Earthquake Science New Zealand (ESNZ), and Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED), along with international partners, to review recent progress in seismic hazard science across island arc regions. Discussions focused on advances in seismic source characterisation, site amplification and ground-motion modelling, supporting ongoing efforts to update national seismic hazard models. The workshop provided a forum for technical exchange on shared challenges in modelling complex tectonic environments and for comparing methodological approaches across regions. GEM was represented by Richard Styron, Senior Active Faults Specialist, who contributed to the programme with a presentation titled “Developing a data-centric workflow for seismic source model construction”. His presentation outlined approaches for structuring and managing fault and seismic source data to support transparent and reproducible hazard model development, with relevance for national seismic hazard updates in island arc settings. The workshop highlighted the importance of sustained international collaboration in advancing evidence-based seismic hazard assessment and strengthening the scientific foundations that support disaster risk reduction in seismically active regions. Further details about the workshop and participating institutions are available on the event website. https://2025tw-jp-nz.earth.sinica.edu.tw/index.php ## No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Sets of functions to assess the consequences of earthquakes on the built environment of the world Products Global Vulnerability Model Sets of functions to assess the consequences of earthquakes on the built environment of the world Share Facebook LinkedIn Description The v2026.1 Global Vulnerability Model consists of a set of functions that estimate the consequences of earthquakes of a given intensity to different building typologies. This model includes curves to assess economic losses, divided in structural, non-structural and content losses, as well as estimates of fatalities. The database is separated by region-country/territory and considers functions for over X building typologies identified in the Global Exposure Model developed, curated and maintained by the GEM Foundation. The entire database is available for direct download under a CC BY-NC-SA license for risk modelers, analysts and researchers to perform seismic risk assessment on their portfolios. How to cite this work If you make use of this work, please cite both the publication and the data. Publication: Aljawhari, K., Nafeh, A.M.B. & Silva, V. A new global vulnerability model for regional seismic risk assessments: Part 1 – structural vulnerability. Bull Earthquake Eng (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-026-02443-7 Data: Nafeh, A. M. B., Aljawhari, K., & Silva, V. (2026). Global Seismic Vulnerability Model (v2026.0.0) (v2026.0.0) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20730225 Available Versions The entire database is available as individual XML files for each country, for direct download under a CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license. Users interested in this product can click the "Open Version Download" button in the right panel to access the information. If your use case does not meet the open license requirement (i.e. commercial use is intended), please submit a request in our system by clicking on the "License Request", where a specific license will be provided, depending on the use case. License information This product is available under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license, which requires: Attribution (you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made) Non-commercial (you may not use the material for commercial purposes) ShareAlike (derivatives created must be made available under the same license as the original) Any deviation from these terms incur in license infringement. For commercial use of the model, a specific license agreement must be made tailored to your use case, in such instance please click on "License Request". Facebook LinkedIn Share Latest Version v2026.1 License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 Available resources Open Repository Documentation License Request By selecting a region in the global map below, a table will appear with the region, country, or territory for which GEM currently has vulnerability models. You can also use the Search box to find a specific country or territory's vulnerability model. Map View Search Popup title Close Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Preview Preview is not available. Previous Product Versions Version Number Data Image Poster Documentation Geoviewer v2018.1 N/A N/A PDF Silva et al. (2020) View v2023.1 Repository PNG PDF Read View Related products Global Liquefaction Hazard OpenQuake Engine Global Seismic Hazard Map Global Seismic Embodied Carbon Risk Global Exposure Model Global Vulnerability Model Vulnerability Modeller's Toolkit (oq-vmtk) Global Seismic Risk Map Country-Territory Seismic Risk Profiles Related publications Development of a global seismic risk model Read More For downloading or accessing detailed product information like PNG/PDF maps, datasets, license request, shapefiles and more, please switch to a desktop or laptop computer. Thank you for your understanding.

Post Event List PURPOSE The purpose of this page is to provide GEM website visitors, researchers, loss modellers, and emergency and disaster risk reduction professionals with specific downloadable information related to red alert events based on USGS PAGER alerts. GEM promotes the sharing of seismic hazard and risk information with a wide range of stakeholders to enhance understanding of damaging earthquake events. This initiative aims not only to give an overview of the models, data and publications available in areas recently impacted by earthquakes, but also hopes to serve as a resource that can inform future risk reduction strategies. The information provided is intended solely for situational awareness purposes and is not aimed towards driving an official emergency response. Please contact your local authorities for further assistance related to official emergency response services and support. 1st January 2024 M7.5 Noto Peninsula, Japan On 1 January 2024, at 16:10 JST (07:10 UTC), a Mw7.5 earthquake struck 7 km north-northwest of Suzu, located on the Noto Peninsula of Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan. The reverse-faulting shock achieved a maximum JMA seismic intensity of Shindo 7 and Modified Mercalli intensity of IX (Violent). The shaking and accompanying tsunami caused extensive damage on the Noto Peninsula, particularly in the towns of Wajima, Suzu and Noto. Source: Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Noto_earthquake USGS PAGER Alert https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000m0xl/pager Related GEM Products Name Description Japan Hazard OpenQuake engine input model to perform hazard calculations for Japan Global Seismic Hazard Map Openly accessible global datasets and plots for peak ground acceleration with a return period of 475 years on rock Global Seismic Risk Map A milestone in global earthquake risk assessment No content. Related GEM Publications Understanding seismic risk in Santiago de Cali (Colombia) for its application in risk management Earthquake-induced liquefaction and landslides in Cali, Colombia Modelling the Residential Building Inventory in South America for Seismic Risk Assessment Tipologías constructivas en Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros Seismic risk assessment for the residential buildings of the three major cities in Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín, and Cali Executive summary Urban seismic risk assessment for the cities of Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros Scenario selection for representative earthquakes in Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros Assessment of earthquake damage considering the characteristics of past events in South America Evaluación de Riesgo Sísmico para Santiago de Cali Model of seismic design regulations and lateral force coefficients for buildings in South America Exploring the seismic risk of the unreinforced masonry building stock in Antioquia, Colombia Modelling the Residential Building Inventory in South America for Seismic Risk Assessment No content. Other Related Products GEM Vulnerability Model for Colombia GEM's country risk profile for Colombia GEM's Country Risk Profile for Venezuela GEM Vulnerability Model for Venezuela GEM Exposure Model for Venezuela GEM's country risk profile for Japan GEM Exposure Model for Japan GEM Vulnerability Model for Japan GEM's country risk profile for Afghanistan GEM vulnerability model for Afghanistan GEM exposure model for Afghanistan (admin 1) Other Related Publications South America Risk Assessment (SARA) Project GEM's PSHA input model documentation for Middle East 1234 Yang et al. (2023) Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Myanmar and its metropolitan areas. Geoscience Letters, 10(1), 48 Tun et al. (2017) The Sagaing Fault, Myanmar. In A. J. Barber, K. Zaw, & M. J. Crow (Eds.), Myanmar: Geology, Resources and Tectonics (Vol. 48, p. 0). The Geological Society of London GEM's PSHA input model documentation for SouthEast Asia GEM's PSHA input model documentation for China GEM's PSHA input model documentation for China DISCLAIMER The information and data provided on this page are for informational purposes only. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation makes no warranties, expressed or implied, regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the data. Users are responsible for their own interpretation and use of the information. GEM shall not be liable for any loss, damage, or injury arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided on this page. By downloading or utilising the data, users acknowledge and agree to these terms. The information presented on this page is provided by different organisations and governed by different licenses, please check the individual license before use. CONTACT US