News GEM stakeholder survey preliminary results, new batch of survey invitations coming in September By: Jul 26, 2020 Share Facebook LinkedIn GEM completed the first leg of its stakeholder survey conducted from May 29th to June 11th 2020. GEM received a total of 80 responses (OQ, 22 and Global Maps, 58) from at least 28 countries. Most respondents work as engineers, professors or researchers. Results are preliminary and no definitive conclusions can be made yet. However, the trends point to positive feedback for the OpenQuake engine and the Global Earthquake Hazard and Risk maps. 8 out of 10 said they were satisfied with their experience with OQ, and would recommend it to others. Most respondents also said that OQ is the best software out there or better than most hazard and risk analysis software. For the Global Maps, 7 out of 10 said the products they downloaded helped provide a solution to their research, studies, project or work. Respondents also said they trust GEM products because of the strong scientific and open approach, and the global, international collaborative process. The survey forms are currently being revised to make the questions clearer especially on the subject of ‘products for a fee’. A second batch of email invitations to participate in the survey will be sent to a selected group of GEM collaborators and product users not captured in the first batch of questionnaires. The objectives of the GEM survey are: to understand how GEM global maps and other products have been used by different stakeholders; and to feed the results into GEM’s strategy for developing, improving and disseminating products. The survey also aims to understand what’s in demand and what products are being sought after by GEM stakeholders. The next survey is scheduled in September 2020. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 Gallery VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications New Statistical Perspectives on Bath's Law and Aftershock Productivity Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2022 | Peer-reviewed The well-established Bath’s law states that the average magnitude difference between a mainshock and its strongest aftershock is roughly 1.2, independently of the size of the mainshock. The main challenge in calculating this value is the bias introduced by missing data points when the strongest aftershock is below the observed cut off magnitude. Ignoring missing values leads to a systematic error, because the data points removed are those with particularly large magnitude differences ∆M. The error is minimized, if we restrict the statistics to mainshocks at least two magnitude units above the cut-off, but then the sample size is strongly reduced. This work provides an innovative approach for modelling ∆M by adapting methods for time-to-event data, which often suffers from incomplete observation (censoring). In doing so, we adequately account for unobserved values and estimate a fully parametric distribution of the magnitude differences ∆M for M ą 6 mainshocks. Results show that magnitude differences are best modeled by the Gompertz distribution, and that larger ∆M are expected at increasing depths and higher heat flows. A simulation experiment suggests that ∆M is mainly driven by the number and the magnitude distribution of aftershocks. Therefore, in a second study, we modelled the variation of aftershock productivity in a stochastically declustered local catalog for New Zealand, using a generalized additive model approach. Results confirm that aftershock counts can be better modelled by a Negative Binomial than a Poisson distribution. Interestingly, there is indication that triggered earthquakes trigger themselves two to three times more aftershocks than comparable

Publications GEM 2009/2010 report 2nd edition Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2009 | Report The open source OpenQuake software for seismic hazard and risk assessment is already being used in various ways around the globe. Notwithstanding the fact that the current version of the software still is a ‘developer’ release, the code is stable and can already execute reliable hazard and risk calculations. That is the reason why the Instituto di Geofi sica of Ecuardor asked GEM to work together on developing the country's new seismic hazard maps, using OpenQuake. An example of preliminary maps produced so far is shown here. Furthermore, collaborations with the EMME and SHARE Regional Programmes have led to valuable lessons and improvements on both sides and produced results that will be used to visualise the work the Programmes carry out. Read more on the application of OpenQuake on page 28.

News News Briefs: May-August 2021 By: Aug 30, 2021 Share Facebook LinkedIn IDF Summit 2021 https://idfsummit.insdevforum.org/ GEM joined its partners, the Insurance Development Forum for the inaugural IDF Summit 2021, held on June 7-8. The theme was Building resilience in a riskier world. Global leaders and hundreds of participants from around the world participated in the event. In case you missed it, you can still visit GEM’s dedicated booth @ Knowledge Hub bit.ly/3ghuJph . Governing Board meeting, June 2021 GEM would like to thank all the sponsors and partners for making the first virtual Governing Board meeting of 2021 a great success. The bi-annual meeting was attended by sponsors from public and private sponsors, as well associate and project partners. The meeting featured the usual (and highly appreciated) progress reports on GEM Secretariat activities, advances in the development of GEM products, including commercial risk models, and initial progress on the development of a new GEM Strategic Plan for 2021 to 2030. European Commission and World Bank Dialogue - Economics for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness https://ec.europa.eu/echo/field-blogs/videos/economics-disaster-prevention-and-preparedness_en https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2021/06/04/economics-for-disaster-prevention-and-preparedness-in-europe The European Commission and World Bank held a Dialogue on June 7th for the release of reports providing an in-depth look at the economics for disaster, prevention and preparedness in Europe. GEM provided research and analytics support on earthquake risk, exposure and vulnerability. Vitor Silva represented GEM in the dialogue. COMPDYN: 8th International Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering https://2021.compdyn.org/ GEM’s Vitor Silva participated as a panelist in the round table on fragility curves for existing buildings: open challenges in their definition and use for seismic risk analyses. Vitor presented the Global Risk Assessment: mistakes from the past and promises for the future. GEM at GAGE SAGE 2021 Community Science Workshop https://gage-sage-2021.us2.pathable.com/meetings/virtual/ToWA2isYjG7gxhAhF GEM joined the virtual GAGE SAGE 2021 Community Science Workshop on August 16th. GEM’s Catalina Yepes shared GEM’s experiences on the challenges and strategies in training and local collaborations in the International Panel for the Americas. GAGE, the Geodetic Facility for the Advancement of Geosciences, is a facility funded by the US National Science Foundation and NASA and operated by UNAVCO. SAGE is operated by the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS). South Africa Model release GEM has completed the development of its earthquake risk model for South Africa into the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework and the AIR Touchstone formats. The model will be available soon for licensing from the Nasdaq Risk Modelling for Catastrophes Service (contact Nasdaq ) and the AIR Touchstone platforms (contact AIR ). The risk model may be used to assess potential financial losses to commercial, industrial and residential buildings due to earthquake ground shaking. GEM’s South Africa earthquake risk model was generated using the hazard model for South Africa developed by the South Africa Council for Geoscience as the national hazard model, and for input to South Africa building design regulations. The vulnerability and exposure models and data were developed by GEM and cover the residential, commercial and industrial building stock. In the commercial models, OpenQuake is used to generate a stochastic set of hazard footprints (i.e., the spatial distribution of ground motion for each scenario event in the stochastic set). The suite of hazard footprints is translated into the Oasis or Touchstone formats, together with the building vulnerability curves to produce ground up losses, which are then fed into the financial module to compute (re)insured losses. Portfolio analyses may be conducted using industry standard occupancy classes. The original OpenQuake (OQ) version of the South Africa model (hazard, vulnerability and exposure components) is available from GEM under a Creative Commons open license (CC BY-SA). See https://www.globalquakemodel.org/product/south-africa-model for licensing and access to the models and data, as well as model documentation. The OQ version provides a much more detailed view of hazard and risk than the commercial models, but provides risk in terms of ground-up losses (i.e., cost of direct physical damage), not insured losses. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 Gallery VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Global Earthquake Maps Global Earthquake Risk Map VIEWER PDF PNG CONTRIBUTORS DOCUMENTATION References TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION The Global Seismic Risk Map (v2018.1) comprises four global maps. The main map presents the geographic distribution of average annual loss (USD) normalised by the average construction costs of the respective country (USD/m2) due to ground shaking in the residential, commercial and industrial building stock, considering contents, structural and non-structural components. The normalised metric allows a direct comparison of the risk between countries with widely different construction costs. It does not consider the effects of tsunamis, liquefaction, landslides, and fires following earthquakes. The loss estimates are from direct physical damage to buildings due to shaking, and thus damage to infrastructure or indirect losses due to business interruption are not included. The Global Seismic Hazard Map depicts the geographic distribution of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years, computed for reference rock conditions (shear wave velocity of 760-800 m/s). The Global Exposure Map depicts the geographic distribution of residential, commercial and industrial buildings. The Global Seismic Fatalities Map depicts an estimate of average annual human losses due to earthquake-induced structural collapse of buildings. The results for human losses do not consider indirect fatalities such as those from post-earthquake epidemics. The average annual losses and number of buildings are presented on a hexagonal grid, with a spacing of 0.30 x 0.34 decimal degrees (approximately 1,000 km2 at the equator). The average annual losses were computed using the event-based calculator of the OpenQuake engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis developed by the GEM Foundation. The seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability models employed in these calculations were provided by national institutions, or developed within the scope of regional programs or bilateral collaborations. These global maps and the underlying databases are based on best available and publicly accessible datasets and models. Due to possible model limitations, regions portrayed with low risk may still experience potentially damaging earthquakes. The GEM Risk Map is intended to be a dynamic product, such that it may be updated when new datasets and models become available. Releases of updated versions of the seismic risk map are anticipated on a regular basis. Additional hazard and risk metrics for each country can be explored at globalquakemodel.org/gem. How to use and cite this work Please cite this work as: V. Silva, D. Amo-Oduro, A. Calderon, J. Dabbeek, V. Despotaki, L. Martins, A. Rao, M. Simionato, D. Viganò, C. Yepes-Estrada, A. Acevedo, H. Crowley, N. Horspool, K. Jaiswal, M. Journeay, M. Pittore (2018). Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Risk Map (version 2018.1), DOI: 10.13117/GEM-GLOBAL-SEISMIC-RISK-MAP- 2018. This work is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA). Acknowledgements This map is the result of a collaborative effort and extensively relies on the enthusiasm and commitment of various organisations to openly share and collaborate. The creation of this map would not have been possible without the support provided by several public and private organisations during GEM’s second working programme (2014-2018). None of this would have been possible without the extensive support of all GEM Secretariat staff. These key contributions are profoundly acknowledged. A complete list of the contributors can be found at globalquakemodel.org/gem. Legal statements This map is an informational product created by the GEM Foundation for public dissemination purposes. The information included in this map must not be used for the design of earthquake-resistant structures or to support any important decisions involving human life, capital and movable and immovable properties. The values of seismic hazard and risk in this map do not constitute an alternative nor do they replace building actions defined in national building codes or earthquake risk estimates derived nationally. Readers seeking this information should contact the national authorities tasked with seismic hazard and risk assessment. The seismic risk map results from an integration process that is solely the responsibility of the GEM Foundation. https://www.globalquakemodel.org/risk-technical-description MAJOR SPONSORS Verisk ARUP GEOSCIENCE AUSTRALIA CSSC NRCan EAFIT ETH ZURICH EUCENTRE FM GLOBAL GFZ GIROJ GNS SCIENCE HANNOVER RE MUNICH RE NTU ICRM NEPHILA NERC NIED NSET OYO PARTNER RE DPC SGC SWISS SER SWISS RE FOUNDATION SURAMERICANA TEM RCN USGS USAID WTW ZURICH INSURANCE

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GEM is comprised of the Secretariat, a Governing Board from public, private, academic and non-government organizations worldwide, and an Advisory Board GEM TEAM GEM, comprised of the Secretariat, a diverse Governing Board, and an Advisory Board, strives collectively to enhance earthquake risk reduction globally. Operating from EUCENTRE in Pavia, Italy, our international Secretariat spearheads efforts in data development and hazard and risk assessment. Learn more about our team members below. Share Facebook LinkedIn Organigram Secretariat Management Support Hazard Team Risk Team I.T. Advisory Board Governing Board Anchor 1 Joerg Steffensen Hannover Re Chair Daniela Di Bucci Department of Civil Protection (Italy) Vice Chair Iain Stewart University of Plymouth, UK Advisory Board Vice Chair Laurie Johnson Laurie Johnson Consulting, U.S.A. Advisory Board Chair Marco Pagani Head of Seismic Hazards Helen Crowley Secretary General Vitor Silva Head of Risk Engineering Paul Henshaw Director of Tech. & Devt. Antonio Ettorre Systems Administrator Italy Armando Scarpati Frontend Developer Italy Matteo Nastasi Senior Software Developer Italy Michele Simionato Senior Software Developer Italy Paolo Tormene Senior Software Developer Italy Helen Crowley Secretary General United Kingdom Marco Pagani Head of Seismic Hazards Italy Vitor Silva Head of Risk Engineering Portugal Paul Henshaw Director of Tech. & Devt. United Kingdom Chiara Pigoli Accounting & Administrative Officer Italy Jephraim Oro Communications Coordinator Philippines Jessica Campo Administrative & Social Media Asst. Italy Pratim Parash Kalita Product Manager India Beatrice Giorgi Human Resources Italy Ettore Festa Health and Safety Manager Italy Giuseppe Lombardi Human Resources Italy Jamal Dabbeek Arab States Regional Coordinator Palestine Simone Aliprandi Contracts and Licensing Advisor Italy Amir Taherian University of Aveiro Iran Daniel Gomez University of Aveiro Colombia Fatemeh Alishahiha IUSS Pavia Iran Furkan Narlitepe IUSS Pavia Turkey Julian Montejo University of Chieti-Pescara Colombia Niloofar Kazemiasl IUSS Pavia Iran Salvador Ramos University of Aveiro Mexico Zarin Karim Zadeh University of Aveiro Iran Astha Poudel University of Lisbon Greece Mara Mita University of Porto Portugal Al Mouayed Bellah Nafeh Physical Vulnerability Lead Lebanon Alejandro Calderon Exposure Research Lead Costa Rica Anirudh Rao Seismic Risk Modelling Lead India Catalina Yepes Exposure Development Lead Colombia Catarina Costa Infrastructure Risk Lead Portugal Daniela González González Exposure Analyst Colombia Karim Aljawhari Physical Vulnerability Modeller Palestine Marco Baiguera Exposure Analyst Italy Martina Caruso Seismic Risk Modeller Italy Daniela Charris Exposure Analyst Colombia Jovana Borozan Seismic Risk Modeller Serbia Christopher Brooks Seismic Hazard Scientist United Kingdom Francesco Serafini Seismic Hazard Scientist Italy Kendra Johnson Senior Seismic Hazard Scientist United States Kirsty Bayliss Seismic Hazard Scientist United Kingdom Manuela Villani Senior Seismic Hazard Scientist Italy Richard Styron Senior Active Faults Specialist United States Fahrettin Kuran IUSS Pavia Türkiye Jarod Domenge University of Milano Bicocca France Zainab Asaad IUSS Pavia Lebanon Francesco Serafini Seismic Hazard Scientist Italy Jean-Christophe Garaix Advisor United States Daniela Charris Exposure Analyst Colombia Finn Løvholt Advisory Board Member Norway Flavia G. Bwire Member Taiwan Jovana Borozan Seismic Risk Modeller Serbia Iain Stewart Advisory Board Vice Chair United Kingdom Josip Atalić Member Croatia Niloofar Kazemiasl PhD Student Iran Renato Solidum, Jr. Advisory Board Member Philippines Abderrahim Oulidi Governor Morocco Load more Public Governors Croatian Centre of Earthquake Engineering (UNIZG FCE and IS) Member Public Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Fonds de Solidarité contre les Événements Catastrophiques - FSEC (Morocco) Member Public Governor Sponsor. Voting Member National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (Japan) Member Public Governor Sponsor. Voting Member State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (Switzerland) Member Public Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Department of Civil Protection (Italy) Member Public Governor Sponsor. Voting Member and Vice-chair GeoScience Australia Member Public Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Natural Environment Research Council (UK) Member Public Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Taiwan Earthquake Model-TEM Member Public Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Earth Sciences New Zealand Member Public Governor Sponsor. Voting Member National Building Review Board (NBRB) of Uganda Member Public Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Natural Resources Canada Member Public Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Private Partners Governors Allianz Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member EUCENTRE Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Marsh McLennan/Guy Carpenter Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member PartnerRe Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Verisk Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Aon Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Factory Mutual Insurance - FM Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Moody's RMS Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Renaissance Re Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Willis Towers Watson Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Atlantic Re Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Hannover Re Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member and Chair Munich Re Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Swiss Re Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Zurich Insurance Group Sponsor Private Governor Sponsor. Voting Member Advisors AXA Sponsor Advisor Sponsor. Non-Voting Member Gallagher Re Sponsor Advisor Sponsor. Non-Voting Member CelsiusPro Sponsor Advisor Sponsor. Non-Voting Member Liberty Mutual Reinsurance Sponsor Advisor Sponsor. Non-Voting Member Descartes Underwriting Sponsor Advisor Sponsor. Non-Voting Member Safehub Sponsor Advisor Sponsor. Non-Voting Member Associate Partners APDIM Member Associate. Non-Voting Member IASPEI Member Associate. Non-Voting Member UNESCO Member Associate. Non-Voting Member EERI Member Associate. Non-Voting Member IRDR Member Associate. Non-Voting Member United States Geological Survey (USGS) Member Associate. Non-Voting Member IAEE Member Associate. Non-Voting Member UNDRR Member Associate. Non-Voting Member Load more Francesco Serafini Seismic Hazard Scientist Italy Jean-Christophe Garaix Advisor United States Daniela Charris Exposure Analyst Colombia Finn Løvholt Advisory Board Member Norway Flavia G. Bwire Member Taiwan Jovana Borozan Seismic Risk Modeller Serbia Iain Stewart Advisory Board Vice Chair United Kingdom Josip Atalić Member Croatia Niloofar Kazemiasl PhD Student Iran Renato Solidum, Jr. Advisory Board Member Philippines Abderrahim Oulidi Governor Morocco Load more

News GEM-World Bank project aims to build capacity and risk understanding in Georgia By: Sep 21, 2020 Share Facebook LinkedIn Urban area in Georgia GEM will implement a 1-year project supported by the World Bank to enhance the understanding of earthquake risk in Georgia. The project is part of efforts to support the government of Georgia to address the following two challenges: (i) the lack of understanding of earthquake risk and the potential impact on people, infrastructure and the economy at large and (ii) the need to reduce the vulnerability of the existing infrastructure, particularly critical emergency response facilities. Using OpenQuake, GEM will assess earthquake risk in Georgia by: Implementing a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment model characterizing ground shaking (frequency and intensity); Improving an exposure model characterizing the location, economic value, occupants and the vulnerability class of the assets exposed to the earthquake hazard; and Estimating a number of earthquake risk metrics critical for disaster risk management. These activities will be performed and developed in close consultation with the local partners of this project. To transfer the knowledge and technology to the local technical experts, a seismic risk workshop will be conducted using a conference call system due the ongoing pandemic. The workshop will comprise the following: Presentation of the main earthquake risk results for Georgia, including the potential benefits in improving the seismic performance of the selected buildings. The audience will span from technical experts to decision makers and other stakeholders. For technical experts, a discussion of the main components of the earthquake risk assessment for Georgia, including the concepts of seismic hazard assessment, vulnerability modelling, exposure modelling and assessment of risk metrics. For technical experts, performing seismic hazard and risk calculations for Georgia, allowing participants to explore the earthquake risk model for Georgia, and reproduce the metrics presented in the first module. Watch out for future updates on GEM’s social media channels – , and . No images found. GALLERY 1/1 Gallery VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications The GEM Faulted Earth Project Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2015 | Report This is the final report of the GEM Faulted Earth Project (GFE), which was active between 2010 and 2013. GFE set out to build a global active fault database with a common set of strategies, standards and formats, to be placed in the public domain. Nearly 100 individuals from 43 institutions in 21 countries contributed to GFE by providing feedback on the database design and the compilation tool, as well as the documents describing them, contributing data and participating in several workshops.

News GEM’s Vitor Silva receives ASCE civil engineering research prize By: Dec 16, 2025 Oct 10, 2025 Share Facebook LinkedIn Vitor Silva, Head of Risk Engineering at the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, has received the Walter L. Huber Civil Engineering Research Prize from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). The award was presented on 10 October 2025 during the ASCE Annual Convention in Seattle, United States. The Walter L. Huber Prize is one of ASCE’s recognised mid-career research awards and honours notable contributions to civil engineering research. Vitor was recognised for his research contributions, which have raised the state-of-the-art of regional seismic risk assessment of the global built environment through worldwide collaborations, open data/software and machine learning algorithms. Vitor leads GEM’s risk engineering activities and has played a central role in the development and application of seismic risk methodologies used in national, regional and global assessments. His work supports GEM’s broader objective of improving the availability and use of science-based risk information for disaster risk reduction and resilience planning. Further information on the Walter L. Huber Civil Engineering Research Prize is available on the ASCE website. https://www.asce.org/career-growth/awards-and-honors/walter-l-huber-civil-engineering-research-prizes ## No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS