News GEESE Algorithm Delivers New Tools for Earthquake Scenarios and Post-Event Analysis By: Oct 6, 2025 Jul 29, 2025 Share Facebook LinkedIn How can we test if a seismic hazard input model is capable of producing a sufficiently realistic rupture for a significant event? A study led by Christopher Brooks (GEM Seismic Hazard Scientist) introduces the Global EarthquakE ScEnarios (GEESE) rupture matching algorithm, an OpenQuake Engine-based tool that retrieves appropriate ruptures (in terms of hypocentral location, magnitude, rupture geometry and style-of-faulting) from seismic hazard input models. Alongside the evaluation of seismic hazard input models, the GEESE algorithm can be used within post-event response to generate an initial finite rupture when other data required to perform a detailed inversion has not yet been disseminated. Building a Global Database The GEESE algorithm retrieves finite ruptures from a seismic hazard input that sufficiently match the queried magnitude and hypocentral location. Applied to version 10.0 of the ISC-GEM earthquake catalogue, the method produced a publicly available database (GEESE version 1.0) of finite rupture models for past earthquakes. Events with a moment magnitude greater than 7.0 and a hypocentral depth less than 200 km were selected. From these, the algorithm retrieved the best matching ruptures from GEM’s Global Hazard Mosaic, providing both rupture models and corresponding ground-motion fields. The OpenQuake format inputs (including the retrieved finite rupture) are provided for the user to perform their own scenario hazard calculations. The database offers researchers and practitioners a resource for scenario-based hazard and risk analysis applications, helping to bridge historical seismicity with contemporary modelling needs. Testing Models and Supporting Response The GEESE algorithm can also serve as a tool for the verification of a model’s seismic source characterisation, given it can test whether a model can generate ruptures sufficiently representative of known events – with matching ruptures identified for approximately 90 percent of the ISC-GEM catalogue events tested. If no ruptures are retrieved, it can provide information on seismic sources which would be expected to be capable of generating a matching rupture based on the admitted information for the given earthquake. The tool is also of considerable use in post-event response when initially only limited information is often available. Unlike other rupture retrieval algorithms in the literature, the GEESE algorithm is not dependent on additional data to obtain an initial finite rupture, because the geometries are determined by the predefined seismic sources within the seismic hazard input models. Examples of this capability are demonstrated for the 2023 Morocco earthquake and the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake within the recently published journal paper about the GEESE algorithm and associated database. Implications for the DRR Community According to Christopher, the tool offers significant benefits for science and practice: “With GEESE, we can generate finite ruptures for events of interest with minimal information - only the event hypocenter and moment magnitude, because we are leveraging the predefined geometries contained within OpenQuake format seismic hazard input models. This capability is highly useful in post-event response when consideration of a detailed geometry (as opposed to a more crude point source) within scenario risk calculations can significantly alter the suggested allocation of emergency response resources. The algorithm is also useful for evaluating the seismic source characterisations of OpenQuake format seismic hazard input models.” The study reinforces GEM’s commitment to open science by making the GEESE algorithm and its rupture database publicly accessible. By providing finite rupture models and scenario hazard calculation input files for the largest events in the ISC-GEM catalogue, a systematic means of evaluating hazard models and a capability for retrieving initial finite ruptures in post-event response, the tool strengthens the resources available to the global disaster risk reduction community. Accessing the Database Version 1.0 of the GEESE rupture database is openly available under a CC BY-NC-SA license through GEM, offering finite rupture models and associated ground-motion fields for almost 1000 large historical earthquakes. This resource is intended to grow with further data and applications, enhancing global capacity for hazard testing and rapid post-event analysis. Explore the GEESE resources here. Study – https://seismica.library.mcgill.ca/article/view/1654 Database – https://zenodo.org/records/14981706 No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Post Event List PURPOSE The purpose of this page is to provide GEM website visitors, researchers, loss modellers, and emergency and disaster risk reduction professionals with specific downloadable information related to red alert events based on USGS PAGER alerts. GEM promotes the sharing of seismic hazard and risk information with a wide range of stakeholders to enhance understanding of damaging earthquake events. This initiative aims not only to give an overview of the models, data and publications available in areas recently impacted by earthquakes, but also hopes to serve as a resource that can inform future risk reduction strategies. The information provided is intended solely for situational awareness purposes and is not aimed towards driving an official emergency response. Please contact your local authorities for further assistance related to official emergency response services and support. 28th March 2025 M7.7 Sagaing Region, Myammar On 28 March 2025 at 12:50:54 MMT (06:20:54 UTC), a Mw 7.7 earthquake struck the Sagaing Region of Myanmar, with an epicenter close to Mandalay, the country's second largest city. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Sagaing_earthquake USGS PAGER Alert https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pn9s/pager Related GEM Products Name Description Global Seismic Hazard Map Openly accessible global datasets and plots for peak ground acceleration with a return period of 475 years on rock Southeast Asia Exposure Repository with the inventory of residential, commercial and industrial buildings in Southeast Asia Active Faults Database A repository with global homogenised characteristics of active faults Southeast Asia Hazard OpenQuake engine input model to perform hazard calculations for Southeast Asia Global Seismic Risk Map A milestone in global earthquake risk assessment No content. Related GEM Publications Understanding seismic risk in Santiago de Cali (Colombia) for its application in risk management Earthquake-induced liquefaction and landslides in Cali, Colombia Modelling the Residential Building Inventory in South America for Seismic Risk Assessment Tipologías constructivas en Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros Seismic risk assessment for the residential buildings of the three major cities in Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín, and Cali Executive summary Urban seismic risk assessment for the cities of Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros Scenario selection for representative earthquakes in Quito, Cali and Santiago de los Caballeros Assessment of earthquake damage considering the characteristics of past events in South America Evaluación de Riesgo Sísmico para Santiago de Cali Model of seismic design regulations and lateral force coefficients for buildings in South America Exploring the seismic risk of the unreinforced masonry building stock in Antioquia, Colombia Modelling the Residential Building Inventory in South America for Seismic Risk Assessment No content. Other Related Products GEM Vulnerability Model for Colombia GEM's country risk profile for Colombia GEM's Country Risk Profile for Venezuela GEM Vulnerability Model for Venezuela GEM Exposure Model for Venezuela GEM's country risk profile for Japan GEM Exposure Model for Japan GEM Vulnerability Model for Japan GEM's country risk profile for Afghanistan GEM vulnerability model for Afghanistan GEM exposure model for Afghanistan (admin 1) Other Related Publications South America Risk Assessment (SARA) Project GEM's PSHA input model documentation for Middle East 1234 Yang et al. (2023) Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Myanmar and its metropolitan areas. Geoscience Letters, 10(1), 48 Tun et al. (2017) The Sagaing Fault, Myanmar. In A. J. Barber, K. Zaw, & M. J. Crow (Eds.), Myanmar: Geology, Resources and Tectonics (Vol. 48, p. 0). The Geological Society of London GEM's PSHA input model documentation for SouthEast Asia GEM's PSHA input model documentation for China GEM's PSHA input model documentation for China DISCLAIMER The information and data provided on this page are for informational purposes only. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation makes no warranties, expressed or implied, regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the data. Users are responsible for their own interpretation and use of the information. GEM shall not be liable for any loss, damage, or injury arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided on this page. By downloading or utilising the data, users acknowledge and agree to these terms. The information presented on this page is provided by different organisations and governed by different licenses, please check the individual license before use. CONTACT US

Scientific Collaboration, a vital element for productivity GEM Impact Story Series Early beginnings Early in my career, I spent several years as a postdoctoral and research fellow at the ANU’s Research School of Earth Sciences researching deep earth structure. My seismology really didn't involve earthquakes. It involved earth structure which people aren't that interested in. Inspired in Japan In 1997, I worked as a research scientist at the Japan Agency for Marine- Earth Science and Technology, where I eventually led a research program in earthquake and tsunami science. That’s when I started working on earthquakes. In Japan, people were very interested in earthquakes. Every time I talked to anyone, friends or people I met on the street or at the bus station, they were very interested in earthquakes and so that really got me excited and I just became much more interested in the earthquakes themselves. GEM and Geoscience Australia partnership In 2001 I moved back to Australia to lead Geoscience Australia’s (GA) Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard Project, where I became the Principal Scientist in GA’s Regional Development Section. We have been involved in earthquake hazard assessment in Australia for a very long time. GA provides expert geo scientific information to the Australian government and to the public and that includes earthquake hazard information. GA joined GEM in 2010 as a public sponsor to contribute to this knowledge. I represented GA from 2016 to 2019. Hazard assessment before OpenQuake We've done earthquake assessment for a very long time and we have used a variety of methods, and a software to do that. At some point, we were developing our own software and spending a lot of resources for that purpose. We realized that we were really spending so much resources just developing the software that we really didn't have much time to devote to the actual data analysis and improving the quality of information. Increased productivity with scientific collaboration When GEM came along, they were an organization that provided excellent tools and software that allowed us to focus more on the science and our data analysis. We were able then to improve greatly the information that went into the earthquake hazard assessment without having to spend lots of time just developing the software. A hub for earthquake knowledge Currently, I'd say in the world, GEM has the greatest concentration of earthquake hazard and risk expertise available anywhere. It’s a knowledge hub for earthquake hazard and risk analysis. GEM impact at Geoscience Australia Collaborating with GEM has improved the quality of our research on earthquakes because it has greatly improved the quality of our earthquake hazard assessments. It has made a dramatic difference in the quality of the outputs. From software development to quality of data and data analysis Working with GEM allowed us to focus more on the quality of our data and our data analysis rather than the software development and this has really resulted in a dramatic improvement in the Australian earthquake hazard map. Earthquake risk and world population I think that there are places in the world where earthquake risk is very much unappreciated. Over the course of the past couple of centuries, or in the people's living memory, there haven't been big earthquakes. But the population has grown dramatically and they've built lots of buildings without really thinking about the earthquake risk. GEM and public good At the moment the world faces, at least in some places, very pronounced earthquake risk and people don't really know how to deal with this. Having an organization like GEM where they have expertise, they have a place they can go to benefit from this kind of expertise in earthquake hazard and risk assessment. It is really important for those places in order to try to reduce future fatalities. About the GEM Impact Stories Earthquake risk remains abstract and highly technical, and there are significant risks that due to poor or limited understanding of it, policymakers and the public at large may not be able to fully take advantage of existing and future information that can either help create better or enhance existing earthquake risk reduction and management strategies, especially at the local and national level. Specifically, the GEM Impact Stories project aims to: Collect and document stories where GEM or its partners have contributed to positive change; Encourage policy and decision makers to use science- and evidence- based information to formulate earthquake DRR strategy at the national level through positive stories of change; and Increase awareness of the public at large on earthquake risk and preparedness. About Prof. Phil R. Cummins Phil Cummins received his PhD in Geophysics from U. California Berkeley in 1988. He spent several years as a postdoctoral and research fellow at the ANU’s Research School of Earth Sciences researching deep earth structure. Since 2010 he has also held a position as Prof. Natural Hazards at ANU’s Research School of Earth Sciences. (source: ANU website ) Acknowledgement Our heartfelt thanks goes to: Prof. Phil Cummins for contributing his story and valuable time with us; Simona Confalonieri and her team at videografiaitaliana.it for the video interview; and Jill Schneider for the support provided during the interview. Related Contents Scientific collaboration a vital element for productivity Prof. Phil Cummins' full interview transcript in PDF format. Title: Scientific collaboration a vital element for productivity Video: Prof. Phil Cummins' interview Duration: 3mins 04secs

News Round up of GEM activities and participation in recent events (July - August) By: Jul 2, 2018 Share Facebook LinkedIn During the last two months, GEM participated in various meetings across the globe. Here’s a list of GEM’s participation in some notable gatherings: GEM meets Community Safety Branch - Geoscience Australia in Canberra (July 25) GEM represented by John Schneider met with Geoscience Australia (GA) Community Safety Branch to discuss issues associated with earthquake hazard and risk modeling and to explore areas of mutual interest for potential collaboration. GA is currently completing a new national earthquake hazard model for Australia and has provided assistance to the Government of Indonesia in developing a new national earthquake hazard model for Indonesia using OpenQuake. John also travelled to Perth Australia with Mark Edwards and Maruf Rahman to meet Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services together with lifeline system (transportation, electric power and water distribution) providers as part of a new collaborative project on earthquake vulnerability and risk to lifelines in Western Australia. GEM participates in US earthquake risk reduction discussion in London (July 7) GEM represented by Vitor Silva participates in discussion panel on earthquake risk model for the United States at Lloyds of London with RMS, AIR Worldwide, EPICentre UCL, Imperial College and Aon Benfield. The meeting held on July 7 in London was attended by around 160 participants. The panel discussion provided an opportunity for GEM to highlight the work recently completed by GEM, and funded by the California Seismic Safety Commission, on GEM’s OpenQuake risk model for the United States, which includes latest earthquake hazard model for California (UCERF3) as part of the USGS 2014 national hazard model. GEM meets FM Global in Boston (July 24) In Boston, USA GEM, represented by Marco Pagani, meets with FM Global to discuss global hazard modelling and the OpenQuake engine. The focus of the discussions was on FM Global’s contribution to the development of a global earthquake fault database. GEM at earthquake symposium in Lenzburg, Switzerland (5-7 September) Marco Pagani delivered an invited presentation on earthquake hazard modeling in Europe at the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Workshop in Lenzburg, Switzerland. The workshop was convened by GEM sponsor ETH to review the state of the art and define future directions for earthquake hazard research in Europe. The workshop was attended by 150 leading experts on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) from around the globe. GEM at OASIS Modelling Conference in London (4-5 September) John Schneider was a guest at the first annual conference of the OASIS Loss Modellng Framework. OASIS is a consortium of organisations with common interests in developing and applying natural catastrophe risk models to insurance risk issues. About 200 model developers, users and risk management professionals attended the conference. GEM global databases and OpenQuake modeling tools featured prominently in presentations and discussions of earthquake risk modeling developments and applications. Many participants expressed interest in having GEM risk models accessible through the OASIS platform. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News GEM's Role in Shaping the EMME24 Model at ASC 2024 By: Dec 18, 2024 Nov 6, 2024 Share Facebook LinkedIn The Asian Seismological Commission (ASC) 2024 General Assembly, held from 3-7 November in Belek, Antalya, Türkiye, brought together leading experts, researchers, and stakeholders to discuss advancements in earthquake science and disaster risk reduction. Hosted by the Asian Seismological Commission - Türkiye in collaboration with key scientific institutions, the event showcased over 200 oral and poster presentations covering diverse topics, including seismic hazard assessment and disaster management. GEM contributed to the success of the congress, particularly during the session on the Earthquake Model of the Middle East 2024 (EMME24). Kirsty Bayliss, GEM’s Seismic Hazard Scientist, presented the organisation’s key contribution - a new source branch for the updated EMME24 model. This branch incorporates multi-fault rupture scenarios, addressing complexities in seismic hazard assessment for the Middle East region. The session on the Earthquake Model of the Middle East 2024 (EMME24), convened by Ayşegül Askan (METU, Türkiye) and Laurentiu Danciu (ETH, Switzerland), highlighted key updates to the model, including GEM’s significant contributions. The presentations provided an in-depth look at advancements in seismic hazard modelling for the region, with GEM's work on multi-fault rupture scenarios serving as a key component in refining seismic hazard assessments and offering attendees valuable insights into the project’s methodology and outcomes. The congress also featured a range of technical sessions on cutting-edge topics, including seismic hazard assessment, remote sensing technologies, and public outreach. Kirsty expressed appreciation for the event's collaborative atmosphere: “The ASC General Assembly provides a great opportunity to meet with the wider seismology community, to exchange ideas and refine methodologies to improve our understanding of seismic hazard and risk in high-risk regions.” EMME24, a multi-stakeholder modelling initiative coordinated by international experts, aims to enhance the seismic hazard framework for the Middle East. As one of the key collaborators, GEM contributed advanced modelling techniques, reinforcing its commitment to supporting disaster risk reduction efforts globally. GEM extends its gratitude to the ASC organisers and participants for a highly engaging event. The foundation looks forward to leveraging insights from the meeting to advance its mission of promoting seismic resilience globally. For more information about the previous version of the hazard model for the region, visit Middle East Hazard Model (v2016.1.0) . Further details about ASC 2024 can be found on the ASC Congress Website . No images found. GALLERY 1/9 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

You have chosen to request a demo on: Atlas - Global Seismic Hazard Curves First Name Last Name Email Company or Institution Name Country Sector Provide Details I accept the license terms and the conditions of products use. Email us at product@globalquakemodel.org if you're experiencing problems submitting this form or if you have any inquiries. Thank you. Request Thanks for submitting! You will be contacted as soon as possible Add answer here

News 15 Years of GEM: Transforming the Latest Science into Action for a Safer World By: Mar 27, 2024 Mar 9, 2024 Share Facebook LinkedIn March 9, 2024. Pavia, Italy. "Fifteen years ago, the GEM Foundation embarked on a visionary journey – to equip communities worldwide with the knowledge and tools needed to understand and reduce earthquake risks, building a safer future. We would like to express deep gratitude to our past leaders, remarkable team, local partners, and supporters for working together with us on the assessment of global seismic risk. Pioneering open-source tools and fostering global collaboration, we have supported communities around the world in making informed decisions and building earthquake resilience." - Helen Crowley, GEM Secretary General. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbHTuZVA0Jg Building a Foundation for Global Resilience Since its inception in 2009, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation has been at the forefront of seismic risk reduction efforts worldwide. With a mission to enhance understanding and resilience against earthquakes and other natural hazards, GEM has catalysed transformative change through its collaborative approach and innovative solutions. In the coming years, the organisation further plans to expand its focus to include secondary hazards often triggered by earthquakes, such as liquefaction and landslides, and to work closely with neighbouring communities including the Global Tsunami Model. These advances demonstrate GEM's commitment to increasing global resilience to natural hazards through continuous scientific improvements and collaborations. A GEM Timeline! #GEM15 : 15 Years of Advancing Earthquake Resilience! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HZFlUAE1A0 Messages from present and past leaders The development of the ‘Global Earthquake Model’, a comprehensive collaborative framework for assessing earthquake hazard and risk, has led to the mosaic of global seismic hazard and risk models, providing stakeholders with a standardised approach to evaluate earthquake risks at a global scale. This collaborative approach, bringing together a diverse array of stakeholders, including scientists, engineers, decision-makers, and communities, has promoted a culture of open collaboration and knowledge sharing. This has led to the development of ground-breaking open-source tools, such as the OpenQuake Engine, and open data, such as the Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Maps, empowering stakeholders with the resources needed to assess and mitigate earthquake risk effectively. Strengthening Communities Through Strategic Initiatives From regional and national hazard and risk assessments in South America, Central America and the Caribbean, Europe, Africa, Middle East and Central Asia, South Asia, Southeast and East Asia, the Pacific and Oceania, to capacity-building workshops reaching over 1,500 participants worldwide, GEM has played a crucial role in equipping communities and decision-makers with the knowledge and tools necessary for effective earthquake risk assessment and mitigation. This dedication is further recognised by Ms. Paola Albrito, Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction and Director of UNDRR, who stated, “We congratulate GEM on its 15th anniversary and thank it for its pioneering work in helping countries understand and act on the risk of earthquakes.” UNDRR Preventionweb recently collaborated to promote over 200 GEM country seismic risk profiles on Preventionweb portal. (see related article here ) Towards a Safer Tomorrow: GEM's Ongoing Initiatives and Innovations As GEM looks towards the future, it remains steadfast in its commitment to advancing and applying the science of seismic risk reduction (watch: GEM's Vision for a Resilient Future: Insights from Helen Crowley), addressing emerging issues ranging from rapid urbanisation to the optimal use of Artificial Intelligence, through continued collaboration, innovation, and capacity building initiatives. GEM seeks to equip communities to build a safer and more resilient future, prioritising inclusivity and accessibility to ensure its resources reach those who need them most, especially in vulnerable regions. Here's to the next 15 years and beyond, as we strive towards a safer, more resilient world, together. Join us in building a safer future. Visit our website to learn more and get involved: www.globalquakemodel.org No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2017 | Peer-reviewed Using a score to generalize the model performance into one numeric value has been one of the most popular approaches to empirically evaluate ground‐motion models (GMMs). This approach has an advantage of simplifying model comparison. We study the effects of data correlation and score variability on the evaluation of GMMs. Most modern GMMs are hierarchical, in which ground motions from the same earthquake are modeled as correlated. We demonstrate, with examples, that incorrect results could occur if such hierarchical GMMs are evaluated by a score that does not duly address the data correlation. We propose to use the multivariate logarithmic score, a natural extension of the widely used univariate logarithmic score (referred to as LLH in the seismological literature), to correctly score hierarchical GMMs. The score variability affects the interpretation of model ranking. We demonstrate that the cluster bootstrap is a better bootstrap strategy, compared with other strategies proposed in the literature, to study the score variability. The bootstrap allows computing two useful quantities: the distinctness index that indicates if two models are truly different given the score variability and the frequency weight, a data‐driven weighting scheme that represents the frequentist’s interpretation of the weight of a logic‐tree branch. The frequency weight has a direct link to the current practice of using multiple GMMs in a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment.

License Request Form You have chosen to get more information about: Türkiye Hazard Hazard Please check the link below to see if this product already meets your your requirements before submitting your request for a license. Thank you. DOWNLOAD THE OPEN VERSION Summary of steps to obtain a license for the requested product. Fill in the application form below. Click Submit. Please check your email Inbox or Spam folder for the summary of your request. You will then be contacted by the GEM Product Manager with either a request for more information, or a request to sign the license. If you do not hear from us within 2 weeks, please send an email to product@globalquakemodel.org . REQUEST DETAILS A. Requesting party information First Name Last Name Role/Job Email Business type Business type Other business Sector Sector Other sector B. License agreement signatory information The signatory must be someone who is authorised to sign license agreements on your behalf such as your immediate supervisor, manager or legal officer. If you’re a PhD student, the signatory must be your adviser or a university officer in charge of license agreements or similar legal documents. Full Name of Signatory Position Company Email of Signatory Organisation name Complete Address C. Purpose of request GEM is able to offer products for free because of the support of our project partners, national collaborators and institutional sponsors. All of GEM’s products are freely available for public good, non-commercial use, but with different license restrictions. In most cases we release products under an open license (e.g., CC BY-SA or CC BY-NC-SA), which permits (re)distribution. In this case, we are granting access under a more restricted license that forbids distribution or disclosure and requires signing by GEM and the licensee in order to better assure accountability for the confidentiality of the information. In order for GEM to properly assess your request, please answer the following questions below. 1. Explain briefly how will the GEM product be used e.g. project, research including the expected results and the foreseen public benefit. Minimum 60 words. 2. Will you be able to share the results of your work with GEM? YES NO 3. Will you be able to provide feedback to GEM on the quality and usefulness of this product via a survey? YES NO D. Privacy Policy By submitting this form, you consent to the processing of your personal data in accordance with our Privacy Policy and the EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). We are committed to safeguarding your information and ensuring it is only used for the purpose outlined in this form. You have the right to access, rectify, or delete your data at any time. For more information, please refer to our Privacy Policy. I agree Words: 0 Email us at product@globalquakemodel.org if you're experiencing problems submitting your application. Thank you. Submit Thanks for submitting! You will be contacted as soon as possible Incomplete data. Please fill in all required fields. Thank you.

News Media update: New global earthquake hazard, risk, liquefaction and carbon resources now available By: Jun 30, 2026 Jun 30, 2026 Share Facebook LinkedIn The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation has released four new global resources on earthquake hazard, risk, infrastructure exposure and the carbon consequences of earthquake damage. Presented at GEM Conference 2026 in Zagreb on 23 June, the resources combine global, regional and national scientific models to help researchers, public authorities, infrastructure planners, insurers and other users understand where earthquake impacts may be greatest - and how those impacts may change in the future. Global Seismic Hazard Map GEM’s updated Global Seismic Hazard Map is GEM's first probabilistic seismic hazard map to cover the entire globe, including the oceans. It brings together 31 inland seismic hazard models, three ocean models and two polar models. Around 200 million people live in areas where there is a 10% chance in 50 years of earthquake shaking strong enough to accelerate the ground sideways at more than half the force of gravity. This is a level of shaking that can cause severe damage to vulnerable buildings. Global Seismic Risk Map The updated Global Seismic Risk Model represents 1.7 billion buildings , home to around 8.2 billion people , and assesses potential earthquake impacts including economic losses, buildings destroyed, fatalities, homelessness and embodied-carbon loss. More than three in five people worldwide live in buildings with no seismic provisions. For the first time, the model also examines how earthquake risk could evolve by 2045 and 2065 under different development scenarios. These are not forecasts of future earthquakes; they show how changing populations, building stock and construction practices could affect future earthquake risk. Global Liquefaction Map GEM has assessed 17.5 million km of roads worldwide. Nearly one in every eight kilometres of the mapped road network is exposed to high earthquake shaking, while around 135,000 km are located in areas with severe liquefaction hazard. Liquefaction occurs when water-saturated ground loses strength during an earthquake. It can damage roads, bridges and underground services, disrupt evacuation and emergency routes, and delay recovery. In Japan, more than one quarter of the road network is located in areas with severe liquefaction hazard; in the Philippines, the figure is 16%. Global Seismic Embodied-Carbon Risk Map This new resource estimates the carbon footprint of earthquake damage and reconstruction. It does not refer to the energy buildings use in daily operation. Instead, it estimates the emissions associated with producing, transporting and installing materials needed to repair or rebuild damaged buildings. GEM estimates that earthquakes result in an average annual reconstruction footprint of around 17 million metric tonnes of CO₂e worldwide - roughly comparable to 85,000 transatlantic passenger flights . The findings show that earthquake resilience and climate objectives are closely linked: reducing building damage can also avoid substantial future reconstruction emissions. FOR JOURNALISTS Media resources: Product maps, posters, technical documentation and access details are available through the hyperlinked maps above. High-resolution map images and additional background can be arranged on request. Media contact: communication@globalquakemodel.org No images found. GALLERY GEM_Global_Seismic_Risk_Map_2026-1_losses.png GEM_Global_Seismic_Hazard_Map_2026-1.png GEM_Global_Exposure_Map_2026-1_occupants.png GEM_Global_Seismic_Risk_Map_2026-1_losses.png 1/10 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS