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OVERVIEW
This course, offered within the Doctoral Programme in Earthquake Engineering at IUSS Pavia and organised by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, is designed to present an in-depth introduction to the latest methods and models for assessing seismic vulnerability, along with their development in the OpenQuake Vulnerability Modeller’s Toolkit and their application in the OpenQuake Engine across a range of practical scenarios. The programme combines theoretical lectures with hands-on training sessions focused on the use of the OpenQuake Vulnerability Modeller’s Toolkit, culminating in a case study implemented in the OpenQuake Engine.
Speakers & Panelists
Session Title
Daniel Gomez
GEM
Marzia Santini
EU JRC
More invited speakers coming soon!
AGENDA
Session Title
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Auditorium
Time | Title | Speaker | Organisation |
|---|---|---|---|
08:00 - 09:00 | Registration | ||
Session: Behind the Global Seismic Hazard Model Moderator: Marco Pagani | |||
Session: Behind and beyond the Global Seismic Risk Model Moderator: Vitor Silva | |||
* early career researcher with travel grant ^ early career researcher with fee waiver | |||
* early career researcher with travel grant ^ early career researcher with fee waiver | |||
Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | |||
Daniel Gomez | |||
Marzia Santini | |||
Hugo Rodrigues | |||
Daniel Emilio | |||
Catalina Yepes | |||
Catarina Costa | |||
Lana Todorovic | |||
Christopher Brooks | |||
Karim Aljawhari | |||
Finn Løvholt
| |||
Vitor Silva | GEM | ||
09:30 - 10:00 | National seismic hazard assessment for dams: emphasis on Himalaya and Northeast Indian region | Mukat Lal Sharma | Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee |
10:00 - 10:30 | From fault data to fault sources in South America: Experiences and challenges from the GEM-SARA Project | Carlos Costa | Universidad Nacional de San Luis, Argentina |
10:30 - 11:15 | Coffee break + demos + posters | ||
11:15 - 11:45 | Understanding the Regional Variability of Ground Motion across South America for Subduction Earthquakes | Jorge Luis Paredes Estacio | University of Bristol, UK |
11:45 - 12:15 | Residual Analysis of Algerian Strong-Motion Data for GMPE Validation and Site-Effects Assessment | Faouzi Gherboudj | Centre National de Recherche en Génie Parasismique, Algeria |
12:15 - 12:45 | Closure of National seismic hazard modelling workshop | Marco Pagani | GEM Foundation |
12:45 - 13:00 | Closure of GEM Conference 2026 (in Main Auditorium) | ||
09:00 - 09:30 | Transforming Seismic Hazard Models to Industry-Ready Risk Models | Jochen Woessner | Moody's RMS, Switzerland |
09:00 - 09:30 | Low Seismicity, High Uncertainty: Advancing Seismic Hazard Estimation Down Under | Trevor Allen | Geoscience Australia |
09:30 - 10:00 | New seismic hazard models for mainland France and the French Lesser Antilles islands | Céline Beauval | ISTerre, France |
10:00 - 10:30 | The Aotearoa New Zealand NSHM: earthquake clustering and nonstationarity | Matt Gerstenberger | Earth Sciences New Zealand |
10:30 - 11:15 | Coffee break + demos + posters | ||
11:15 - 11:45 | Seismic Hazard Assessment in Japan: Recent Updates and Emerging Challenges | Asako Iwaki | NIED, Japan |
11:45 - 12:15 | The USGS National Seismic Hazard Models and Their Use in U.S. Building Codes | Nico Luco | U.S. Geological Survey |
12:15 - 12:45 | The 2029 Update of the Swiss Seismic Hazard Model: A Probabilistic Framework for Multi- Scale Hazard Applications | Laurentiu Danciu | SED/ETH Zurich, Switzerland |
12:45 - 14:15 | Lunch | ||
14:15 - 14:45 | Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Taiwan: Updates and Improvements in TEM PSHA2025 | Chung-Han Chan | Earthquake-Disaster & Risk Evaluation & Management Center, TW |
14:45 - 15:15 | The New Italian Seismic Hazard Model (ISHM): Objectives, Development Strategy, and Scientific Framework | Aybige Akinci and Vera D'Amico | INGV, Italy |
15:15 - 15:45 | Progress towards updating Canada’s National Seismic Hazard and Risk Models | Michal Kolaj and Tiegan Hobbs | Natural Resources Canada |
15:45 - 16:30 | Coffee break + demos + posters | ||
16:30 - 17:00 | Country-Scale Seismic Hazard Assessment in Data-Scarce Regions of the East African Rift | Mohammed Al-Ajamee | University of Khartoum, Sudan |
17:00 - 17:30 | Guidelines on National Seismic Hazard Programs | NSHMG Team | |
17:30 - 18:00 | Discussion on "Challenges in National Seismic Hazard Modelling" | NSHMG Team | |
09:00 - 09:10 | Welcome to day 3 | Helen Crowley | GEM Foundation |
Session: Scenarios and Cascading Hazards Moderator: Indranil Kongar, Guy Carpenter (Marsh) | |||
09:10 - 09:25 | The Global Tsunami Model association Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Model (GTMTHM26) progress | Stefano Lorito | INGV, Italy |
09:25 - 09:40 | From Hazard Science to Actionable Insights: Bridging the Global Tsunami Risk Gap for Societal and Financial Resilience | Naveen Ragu Ramalingam^ | Norwegian Geotechnical Institute |
09:40 - 09:55 | Toward Enhanced Portfolio Seismic Risk Estimates via Physics-Based Ground Motion Simulations | Preetish Kakoty | University College London, UK |
09:55 - 10:10 | A Methodology for Modeling of Mainshock-Aftershock Seismic Loss Assessment | Ömer Faruk Kalayci* | Istanbul Technical University, Turkey |
10:10 - 10:25 | Modelling earthquake sequences: When does damage accumulation matter? | Cecilia Nievas | GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Germany |
10:10 - 10:25 | Rethinking uncertainties for seismic hazard scenarios: A case study of the Lembang and Cimandiri faults in Indonesia | Ekbal Hussain | British Geological Survey |
10:25- 11:25 | Coffee break + demos + posters | ||
Session: Recent Damaging Earthquakes and Emergency Response Moderator: Alexandru Tiganescu, NIEP, Romania | National Institute for Earth Physics | ||
11:25 - 11:40 | Was the 30 September 2025 Mw6.9 Offshore Northern Cebu Earthquake Effectively Forecasted Using EBSPRA? | Azdine Kay Ysulan* | Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology |
11:40 - 11:55 | Towards the Development of Static Ground Displacement and Transient Ground Strain ShakeMaps | David Wald | U.S. Geological Survey |
11:55 - 12:10 | Developing PAGER 2.0: Next Generation Forecasts to Inform Rapid Global Earthquake Response | Kishor Jaiswal | U.S. Geological Survey |
12:10 - 12:25 | Towards uncertainty-based tsunami exposure models for rapid post-event assessment | Finn Løvholt | Norwegian Geotechnical Institute |
12:25 - 12:45 | Invited Talk: Advancing Global Earthquake Impact Estimation for Humanitarians in GDACS & beyond – A Review of Achievements, Challenges & Opportunities over the Past Year | Marzia Santini | Joint Research Centre, Italy |
12:45 - 13:00 | Closure of GEM Conference 2026 | Helen Crowley | GEM Foundation |
13:00 - 14:30 | Lunch / Governing Board Meeting | ||
15:00 | Introduction to field trip | ||
09:00 - 09:10 | Welcome to day 2 | Helen Crowley | GEM Foundation |
Session: Dynamic Exposure Modelling Moderator: Tiegan Hobbs, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) | |||
09:10 - 09:30 | Invited Talk: Forward‑looking Exposure Modelling for Human‑centred Urban Disaster Mitigation | Carmine Galasso | University College London, UK |
09:30 - 09:45 | Machine Learning Forecasting Techniques for Earth Observation Data | Christian Geiß | German Aerospace Center |
09:45 - 10:00 | Spatial Disaggregation and Temporal Projection of Building Exposure and Physical Vulnerability using Deep Constrained Clustering and Probabilistic Graph Deep Learning | Joshua Dimasaka* | University of Cambridge, UK |
10:00 - 10:15 | Predicting population displacement due to earthquakes globally | Nicole Paul | University College London, UK/ETH Zurich, Swizterland |
10:15 - 10:30 | Baseline Survey Framework for GEM-Standardised National Building Exposure Model towards Earthquake Risk Assessment in Uganda | Morris Oleng* | National Building Review Board, Uganda |
10:30 - 11:30 | Coffee break + demos + posters | ||
Session: Next Generation Vulnerability Moderator: Ana Beatriz Acevedo, EAFIT University, Colombia | |||
11:30 - 11:45 | A Framework for Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Indonesian Infilled Masonry Dwellings | Angga Sabaruliman | The University of Sydney, Australia |
11:45 - 12:00 | Reduction of seismic risk for typical URM residential buildings in Zagreb using target retrofitting | Ante Pilipović | University of Zagreb, Croatia |
12:00 - 12:15 | From spatial correlation to damage dependence and IM conversion in seismic risk models | Gerard O'Reilly | IUSS Pavia, Italy |
12:15 - 12:30 | Vulnerability modelling for embodied carbon | Karim Aljawhari | GEM Foundation |
12:30- 14:15 | Lunch | ||
Session: Disaster Risk Reduction Applications Moderator: Rashmin Gunasekera, World Bank | |||
14:15 - 14:30 | Reducing Disaster Risk: Translating Technical Models to Implementation | Veronica Cedillos | GeoHazards International, USA |
14:30 - 14:45 | Implementing and Scaling Up Earthquake Desks: A Practical Disaster Risk Reduction Application for Schools | Sweata Sijapati* | GeoHazards International, Nepal |
14:45 - 15:00 | From Risk Modelling to Policy Development: Early Applications of Canada’s National Seismic Risk Model | Carlos Molina Hutt | University of British Columbia, Canada |
15:00 - 15:15 | Scenario Risk Results for the Department of Antioquia (Colombia) | Ana Beatriz Acevedo | EAFIT University, Colombia |
15:15 - 15:30 | Understanding Risk 2027 | Rashmin Gunasekera | World Bank |
15:30 - 16:30 | Coffee break + demos + posters | ||
Session: Financial Risk Transfer Moderator: Laurie Johnson, Laurie Johnson Consulting | |||
16:30 - 16:45 | Invited Talk: GEM as a Key Pillar of a Flexible and Diversified Cat Model Ecosystem | Iwan Stalder | Zurich Insurance, Switzerland |
16:45 - 17:00 | Building a Nationwide, Seismic Sensor-based, Parametric Earthquake Insurance Program for Morocco | Evan Reis | Safehub, USA |
17:00 - 17:15 | GEM Product Applications in the (Re)insurance Industry | Molly Gallahue | Gallagher Re, UK |
17:15 - 17:30 | Understanding Earthquake Catastrophe Risk in the Balkans: A new Guy Carpenter Model | Robert Churchill | Guy Carpenter, UK |
17:30 - 17:45 | Advancing Catastrophe Models with Earthquake-Triggered Secondary Geoperils: A Case Study for Italy | Abril Sanchez | Aon/Impact Forecasting, Czech Republic |
Furkan Narlitepe | IUSS Pavia/GEM Foundation | ||
Karim Aljawhari | GEM Foundation | ||
Al Mouayed Bellah Nafeh | GEM Foundation | ||
09:00 - 09:10 | Institutional Welcome from the Dean of the Faculty of Civil Engineering | Domagoj Damjanović | University of Zagreb |
09:10 - 09:20 | CCEE and GEM | Josip Atalic | University of Zagreb |
09:20 - 09:30 | Welcome to the GEM Conference 2026 | Helen Crowley | GEM Foundation |
09:30 - 10:00 | Global Seismic Hazard v2026 | Marco Pagani | GEM Foundation |
10:00 - 10:30 | Global Seismic Risk v2026 | Vitor Silva | GEM Foundation |
10:30 - 11:30 | Coffee break + GEM demos + GEM PhD posters | ||
11:30 - 13:00 | GEM's Seismic Hazard Mosaic | Kendra Johnson | GEM Foundation |
Global Block Model (Active Faults Database) | Richard Styron | GEM Foundation | |
Global Stochastic Event Set (SEESAWS) | Manuela Vilani | GEM Foundation | |
Global Homogenised Earthquake Catalogue | Kirsty Bayliss | GEM Foundation |
Daily Oral Presentations Schedule
Daily Posters and Demos Schedule
POSTERS & DEMOS
Showcasing GEM Integration, Innovative Tools, and Advanced Data for Enhanced Hazard and Risk Assessment
Agenda
Week 1
Day | Schedule | Topic |
Monday, 20 July | All day | There are no lectures on this day. Meetings can be arranged for those who need additional support to install the OpenQuake Engine and the Vulnerability Modeller’s Toolkit. |
Tuesday, 21 July | 9:00 – 12:30 |
|
14:00 – 16:00 |
| |
Wednesday, 22 July | 9:00 – 12:30 |
|
14:00 – 16:00 | Running MCA, MSA, and IDA in OQ–VMTK | |
Thursday, 23 July | 9:00 – 12:30 | Fragility Analysis for MCA, MSA, and IDA using state-of-practice statistical methods |
14:00 – 16:00 | Postprocessing Fragility Functions from MCA, MSA, and IDA in OQ–VMTK | |
Friday, 24 July | 9:00 – 12:30 |
|
14:00 – 16:00 |
|
Week 2
Day | Schedule | Topic |
Monday, 27 July | 9:00 – 12:30 | Derivation of OpenQuake-Ready Vulnerability Models: End-to-end Vulnerability Modelling |
14:00 – 17:00 | Derivation of OpenQuake-Ready Vulnerability Models: End-to-end Vulnerability Modelling | |
Tuesday, 28 July | 9:00 – 12:30 | Derivation of OpenQuake-Ready Vulnerability Models: End-to-end Vulnerability Modelling |
14:00 – 17:00 | Derivation of OpenQuake-Ready Vulnerability Models: End-to-end Vulnerability Modelling | |
Wednesday, 29 July | 9:00 – 12:30 | Scenario Hazard Assessment in OpenQuake: Scenario Rupture Definition and Generation of Ground-Motion Fields for various Intensity Measures |
14:00 – 17:00 | Scenario Damage and Loss Assessment in OpenQuake: Damage and Loss Statistics | |
Thursday, 30 July | 9:00 – 12:00 | Recent Advances in Vulnerability Modelling: State-Dependent Models for Earthquake Sequence Risk Applications Beyond Economic Losses: Vulnerability Models for Earthquake-Based Environmental Impact Assessment |
14:00 – 16:00 | Q&A/Open Discussion (Optional Attendance) | |
Friday, 31 July | 9:00 – 10:30 | Final Examination |
Download the Agenda in PDF
REGISTRATION
The course is open to IUSS PhD students and external participants, with priority given to IUSS PhD students. External applicants are invited to submit a short CV along with their contact details.
For registration and further information, please contact:
LOCATION
HOTEL
TRANSPORTATION
RESOURCES
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Videos
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Recording