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OVERVIEW
This course, part of the Doctoral Programme in Earthquake Engineering at IUSS Pavia, is organised by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, and aims to provide a comprehensive overview of state-of-the-art methods and models for seismic hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk assessment, and their implementation within the OpenQuake Engine under a number of different use cases. The course will include both theoretical lectures and training sessions on how to use the OpenQuake Engine, from basic scenario analysis to advanced modelling of probabilistic seismic hazard and risk.
Speakers & Panelists
Session Title
Helen Crowley
Secretary General, GEM
Marco Pagani
Head of Seismic Hazards
Vitor Silva
Head of Risk Engineering, GEM
Al Mouayed Bellah Nafeh
Physical Vulnerability Lead
Kirsty Bayliss
Seismic Hazard Modeller
Marco Baiguera
Exposure Analyst
Manuela Villani
Senior Seismic Hazard Modeller
Christopher Brooks
Seismic Hazard Modeller
Catalina Yepes Estrada
Exposure Development Lead
Anirudh Rao
Seismic Risk Modelling Lead
Marco Pagani
Head of Seismic Hazards, GEM
Carmine Galasso
Professor, Catastrophe Risk Engineering, UCL
Martina Caruso
Seismic Risk Modeller
Alejandro Calderón
Exposure Research Lead
More invited speakers coming soon!
AGENDA
Session Title
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Auditorium
Time | Title | Speaker | Organisation |
|---|---|---|---|
Carmine Galasso | UCL | ||
Vitor Silva | GEM | ||
Marco Pagani | GEM | ||
Helen Crowley | GEM |
Daily Oral Presentations Schedule
Daily Posters and Demos Schedule
Showcasing GEM Integration, Innovative Tools, and Advanced Data for Enhanced Hazard and Risk Assessment
Agenda
Seismic Hazard Component - 15 hours (Week 1)
Module 1: Components of a hazard input model: description and examples
Earthquake sources
Ground-motion models
Logic trees
Module 2: Seismic Hazard Assessment
Classical PSHA
Event-based PSHA
Scenario-based Hazard Analysis
Seismic Hazard Analysis with the OpenQuake Engine
Module 3: Advanced Seismic Hazard Analysis
Disaggregation
Conditional spectra
Vector-valued PSHA
Cross-correlated ground-motion fields and conditioning using seismic stations
Advanced Seismic Hazard Analysis with the OpenQuake Engine
Seismic Risk Component - 15 hours (Week 2)
Module 4: Exposure Modelling
Exposure modelling at urban, regional and national scale
GEM Building Taxonomy
GEM Global Exposure Model
Exposure model inputs for the OpenQuake Engine
Module 5: Vulnerability Modelling
Concepts of fragility and vulnerability modelling
GEM Vulnerability modelling framework
GEM Global Vulnerability database
Vulnerability model inputs for the OpenQuake Engine
Module 6: Scenario Risk Modelling
Concepts of earthquake scenario modelling
Accounting for soil conditions
OpenQuake Engine scenario calculators
Exercises with scenario modelling
Module 7: Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment
Concepts of Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment (PSRA)
GEM’s Global Seismic Risk Model
OpenQuake Engine risk calculators
Exercises on event-based seismic risk modelling
Advanced analysis with the OpenQuake Engine
REGISTRATION
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LOCATION
HOTEL
TRANSPORTATION
RESOURCES
Videos
Gallery
Recording
Videos
Videos
Gallery
Gallery
Day 1: Auditorium
Day 2: Auditorium
Day 2: Hazard Workshop
Day 3: Auditorium
Day 3: Hazard Workshop
Day 3: Fieldtrip (Photo Credit - University of Zagreb)
Photo Credit: University of Zagreb
Presentations
Surname | Title | Day & Session | Video | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Silva | Global Seismic Risk v2026 | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
GEM Foundation | Behind and Beyond the Global Seismic Risk Model | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
Pagani | Global Seismic Hazard v2026 | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
GEM Foundation | Behind the Global Seismic Hazard Model | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
Costa | Global Liquefaction Map and Roads Exposure | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
Caruso | THE GLOBAL CARBON COST OF EARTHQUAKES | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
Calderon | FORECASTING THE GLOBAL EXPOSURE TO EARTHQUAKES | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
Crowley | Closing | Day 3 Session: Recent Damaging Earthquakes and Emergency Response | ||
Santini | Advancing Global Earthquake Impact Estimation for Humanitarians in GDACS | Day 3 Session: Recent Damaging Earthquakes and Emergency Response | ||
Jaiswal | PAGER 2.0: Next Generation Forecasts to Inform Rapid Global Earthquake Response | Day 3 Session: Recent Damaging Earthquakes and Emergency Response | ||
Crowley | Day 3 | Day 3 Session: Scenarios and Cascading Hazards | ||
Santini | (UPDATED) Advancing Global Earthquake Impact Estimation for Humanitarians in GDACS (and beyond) | Day 3 Session: Recent Damaging Earthquakes and Emergency Response | ||
Jochen | Transforming Seismic Hazard Models to Industry-Ready Risk Models Rev2 | Day 3 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Kakoty | Toward enhanced portfolio seismic risk estimates via physics-based ground motion simulations | Day 3 Session: Scenarios and Cascading Hazards | ||
Sharma | National Seismic Hazard Assessment for Dams: Emphasis on Himalaya and Northeast Indian Region | Day 3 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Kalaycı | A Methodology for Modeling of Mainshock-Aftershock Seismic Loss Assessment | Day 3 Session: Scenarios and Cascading Hazards | ||
Santini | Advancing Global Earthquake Impact Estimation for Humanitarians in GDACS (and beyond) | Day 3 Session: Recent Damaging Earthquakes and Emergency Response | ||
Lorito | Global Tsunami Model (GTM) association and Global Tsunami Hazard Model (GTHM26) progress | Day 3 Session: Scenarios and Cascading Hazards | ||
Løvholt | Towards uncertainty-based tsunami exposure models for rapid post-event assessment | Day 3 Session: Recent Damaging Earthquakes and Emergency Response | ||
Woessner | Transforming Seismic Hazard Models to Industry-Ready Risk Models | Day 3 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Molina Hutt | From Risk Modeling to Policy Development: Early Applications of Canada’s National Seismic Risk Model | Day 2 Session: Disaster Risk Reduction Applications | ||
Ragu Ramalingam | From Hazard Science to Actionable Insights: Bridging the Global Tsunami Risk Gap for Societal and Fiscal Resilience | Day 3 Session: Scenarios and Cascading Hazards | ||
Wald | Towards the Development of Static Ground Displacement & Transient Ground Strain ShakeMaps | Day 3 Session: Recent Damaging Earthquakes and Emergency Response | ||
Churchill | Understanding Earthquake Catastrophe Risk in the Balkans: A new Guy Carpenter Model | Day 2 Session: Financial Risk Transfer | ||
Luco | USGS National Seismic Hazard Models | Day 2 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Gunasekera | UR Abu Dhabi | Day 2 Session: Disaster Risk Reduction Applications | ||
Aljawhari | A New Global Seismic Vulnerability Database for Earthquake-induced Embodied Carbon | Day 2 Session: Next Generation Vulnerability | ||
Molina Hutt | From Risk Modeling to Policy Development: Early Applications of Canada’s National Seismic Risk Model | Day 2 Session: Disaster Risk Reduction Applications | ||
Danciu | The 2029 Update of the Swiss Seismic Hazard Model | Day 2 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Paul | Predicting population displacement due to earthquakes globally | Day 2 Session: Dynamic Exposure Modelling | ||
Galasso | Forward-Looking Exposure Modeling for Human-Centred Urban Disaster Mitigation | Day 2 Session: Dynamic Exposure Modelling | ||
Ysulan | Was the 30 September 2025 Mw6.9 Offshore Northern Cebu Earthquake Effectively Forecast Using Event-Based Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment (EBSPRA)? | Day 3 Session: Recent Damaging Earthquakes and Emergency Response | ||
Gerstenberger | Aotearoa New Zealand NSHM Time Dependence & Clustering | Day 2 National Hazard Workshop | ||
O'Reilly | Recent advances in seismic risk modelling: from spatial correlation to damage and loss dependence UPDATED | Day 2 Session: Next Generation Vulnerability | ||
O'Reilly | Recent advances in seismic risk modelling: from spatial correlation to damage and loss dependence | Day 2 Session: Next Generation Vulnerability | ||
Lorito | Global Tsunami Model (GTM) association and Global Tsunami Hazard Model (GTHM26) progress | Day 3 Session: Scenarios and Cascading Hazards | ||
Gatti | Source-to-Structure Analysis | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | ||
00_All_ppt_Iginte_new | All_ppts_Excl_Gatti | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | ||
Hussain | Uncertainty estimates for seismic hazard scenario calculations | Day 3 Session: Scenarios and Cascading Hazards | ||
Stalder | Zurich Earthquake Models | Day 2 Session: Financial Risk Transfer | ||
Danciu | The 2029 Update of the Swiss Seismic Hazard Model | Day 2 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Wald | Towards the Development of Static Ground Displacement & Transient Ground Strain ShakeMaps | Day 3 Session: Recent Damaging Earthquakes and Emergency Response | ||
Akinci | Italian Seismic Hazard Model (ISHM): Objectives, Governance and Methodology | Day 2 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Gherboudj | Residual analysis of Ground motion dataset of Algeria and site effect analysis | Day 3 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Villani | Stochastic EvEnt Sets At Worldwide Scale (SEESAWS) | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
Bayliss | GEM Global Homogenised Earthquake Catalogue | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
Beauval | Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for mainland France and the French islands in the Lesser Antilles | Day 2 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Crowley | Opening slides | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
Pagani | GLOBAL SEISMIC HAZARD | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
Kalaycı | A Methodology for Modeling of Mainshock-Aftershock Seismic Loss Assessment | Day 3 Session: Scenarios and Cascading Hazards | ||
Cedillos | Reducing Disaster Risk: From Technical Models to Implementation | Day 2 Session: Disaster Risk Reduction Applications | ||
Molina Hutt | From Risk Modeling to Policy Development: Early Applications of Canada’s National Seismic Risk Model | Day 2 Session: Disaster Risk Reduction Applications | ||
Nafeh | GEM's New Global Vulnerability Framework | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
Seperate_Gatti_IGNITE_Last | Seperate_Gatti_IGNITE | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | ||
All_ppt_Ignite_excl_Gatti | All_ppts_Excl_Gatti_IGNITE | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | ||
Chan | Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Taiwan: Updates and Improvements in TEM PSHA2025 | Day 2 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Sabaruliman | A Framework for Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Indonesian Infilled Masonry Dwellings | Day 2 Session: Next Generation Vulnerability | ||
styron | GEM Global Block Model | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
Dimasaka | Spatial Disaggregation and Temporal Projection of Building Exposure and Physical Vulnerability using Deep Constrained Clustering and Probabilistic Graph Deep Learning | Day 2 Session: Dynamic Exposure Modelling | ||
Oleng | Baseline Survey Framework for GEM-Standardised National Building Exposure: Towards an Updated Earthquake Risk Assessment Framework for Uganda | Day 2 Session: Dynamic Exposure Modelling | ||
Allen | Low Seismicity, High Uncertainty: Advancing Seismic Hazard Estimation Down Under | Day 2 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Djima | A Reproducible GMPE-Ensemble Framework for Synthetic Ground Motion Simulation of the 2019 Silivri Earthquake. | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | Download | |
Gatti | Shake Anywhere: a simulation-free AI-based earthquake ground motion generator for any source/any geology. | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | ||
Djima | A Reproducible GMPE-Ensemble Framework for Synthetic Ground Motion Simulation of the 2019 Silivri Earthquake. | Day 2 June 24 | ||
Iwaki | Seismic Hazard Assessment in Japan: Recent Updates and Emerging Challenges | Day 2 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Bouabid | Scenario-Based Seismic Risk Assessment for the City of Fez, Morocco | Day 3 June 25 | ||
Millen | New Zealand's National Liquefaction Model | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | ||
Michal | Progress towards updating Canada’s National Seismic Hazard and Risk Models | Day 2 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Hung | Toward National-Scale Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment for Taiwan with Building-Level Exposure | Day 3 June 25 | ||
Ugolini | An adaptive, uncertainty-aware framework for regional seismic risk assessment integrating microzonation and multi-level vulnerability and exposure modeling | Day 3 June 25 | ||
Sijapati | Implementing and Scaling Up Earthquake Desks: A Practical Disaster Risk Reduction Application for Schools | Day 2 Session: Disaster Risk Reduction Applications | ||
Wald | The Benefits of the New International Macroseismic Scale (IMS-25) | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | ||
Toma-Danila | An OpenQuake-Based Rapid Earthquake Loss Estimation System for Romania and Its Role in Decision Support | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | ||
Shukla | Risk Assessment using AI Platform as Infrastructure Detection Lens | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | ||
Sharma | NATIONAL SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR DAMS: EMPHASIS ON HIMALAYA AND NORTHEAST INDIAN REGION | Day 3 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Sanchez Barra | Advancing Catastrophe Models with Earthquake-Triggered Geoperils: A Case Study for Italy | Day 2 Session: Financial Risk Transfer | ||
Ragu Ramalingam | From Tsunami Scenario to Risk – When Time and Scale Matter! | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | ||
Paredes Estacio | Understanding the Regional Variability of Ground Motion across South America for Subduction Earthquakes | Day 3 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Matsumoto | Development of the Japan Strong Motion Data Platform (JSMDP) | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | ||
Mixco | From Global Models to Local Impact: Advancing Seismic Risk Assessment in El Salvador through GEM Tools | Day 1 Keynote presentation | ||
Pilipović | Reduction of seismic risk for typical URM residential buildings in Zagreb using target retrofitting | Day 2 Session: Next Generation Vulnerability | ||
Millen | National Liquefaction Model | Day 2 June 24 | ||
Gallahue | GEM Products in the (Re)insurance Industry | Day 2 Session: Financial Risk Transfer | ||
Johnson | GEM's Global Seismic Hazard Mosaic | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | Download | |
Geiß | Machine Learning Forecasting Techniques for Earth Observation Data | Day 2 Session: Dynamic Exposure Modelling | ||
Ewald | SwissRe CatNet | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | ||
Costa | From Fault Data to Fault Sources in South America | Day 3 National Hazard Workshop | ||
Brooks | GEM Global Flatfile | Day 1 Session: GEM Global Release 2026 | ||
Borzi | Italian Risk MAps: A platform for seismic risk assessment of different exposed assets | Day 1 IGNITE session presenters | ||
Acevedo | Scenario risk results for the Department of Antioquia | Day 2 Session: Disaster Risk Reduction Applications | ||
Ragu Ramalingam | Rapid Tsunami Inundation and Risk Modelling with ML and OpenQuake | Day 3 June 25 | ||
Toma-Danila | An OpenQuake-Based Rapid Earthquake Loss Estimation System for Romania and Its Role in Decision Support | Day 3 June 25 | ||
Gupta | Development of Region-Specific Ground Motion Prediction from Strong Motion Observations for NSHM of India | Day 2 June 24 | ||
Lallawmawma | Forecasting the Spatial Distribution of Earthquakes for the Indian National Seismic Hazard Model Through Smoothed Gridded Seismicity | Day 2 June 24 | ||
Hasanoglu | Impact of modelling and analysis decisions on vulnerability estimates for regional seismic risk assessments | Day 2 June 24 | ||
Hasanoglu | Impact of modelling and analysis decisions on vulnerability estimates for regional seismic risk assessments | Day 2 June 24 | ||
Sitali | Overview of Namibia's Seismicity | Day 2 June 24 | ||
Chimouni | Synthetic intensity maps of certain events in Northern Algeria using PGV and PGA parameters | Day 2 June 24 | ||
Matsumoto | Development of the Japan Strong Motion Data Platform | Day 3 June 25 | ||
Ugolini | An adaptive, uncertainty-aware framework for regional seismic risk assessment integrating microzonation and multi-level vulnerability and exposure modeling | Day 3 June 25 |
Posters
Recording