Publications Sub-Saharan Africa Geodetic Strain Rate Model 1.0 Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2015 | Report InthisreportwedescribetheSub-SaharanAfricaGeodeticStrainRateModel1.0,whichisacontributionto theGlobalEarthquakeModelFoundation(GEM)StrainRateProject.Theobjectiveofthisworkistoimprove the latest GEM geodetic strain rate model with an updated strain rate field of sub-Saharan Africa. SubSaharan Africa encompasses the East African Rift System (EARS), the active divergent plate boundary between the Nubian and Somalian plates, which accommodates strain along the boundaries of at least 3 microplates.ThecurrentversionoftheGEMgeodeticstrainratemodelisconstrainedbypublishedgeodetic data along the EARS and includes microplates between the Nubian and Somalian plates. In this work we developedan improved strain rate field for sub-Saharan Africa that incorporates 1)anexpandedgeodetic velocity fieldwithin theNubia-Somaliaplatesystemandalong theEARS2) redefined regionsofdeforming zones guided by seismicity distribution, and 3) updated constraints on block rotations from the recent publicationofSariaetal.(2014).TheSub-SaharanAfricaGeodeticStrainRateModel1.0spanslongitudes22 to55.5andlatitudes-52to20with0.5°(longitude)by0.4°(latitude)spacing,whichincludespartorallofthe following platesand/or sub-plates: Somalia,Nubia, Rovuma, Lwandle, Victoria, Antarctica,and Arabia. For theseplates/sub-platesweassignrigidblockrotationsasboundaryconstraintsonthestrainratecalculation thatisdeterminedusingtheHainesandHoltmethodof fittingsplinestogeodeticdata foraninterpolated velocitygradienttensorfield.Wederivestrainrates,velocities,andvorticityratesfromthevelocitygradient tensorfield.FollowingtheworkofKreemeretal.2014fortheGEMgeodeticstrainratefieldwealsoprovide estimates of model uncertainties, velocities, vorticity, and strain rates in a Nubia-fixed reference frame relativetothelowermantlefora0.1°x0.1°mesh.

Global Earthquake Maps Global Economic Vulnerability Map VIEWER PDF PNG CONTRIBUTORS DOCUMENTATION References Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N. & Vella, S. 2009. Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements. Oxford Development Studies, 37:3, 229-247, DOI: 10.1080/13600810903089893. Cutter, S. L., J. T. Mitchell, and M. S. Scott. 2000. Revealing the Vulnerability of People and Place: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 90(4): 713-737. TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION The Global Economic Vulnerability Map presents a composite index that was designed primarily to measure the potential for economic losses from earthquakes due to a country’s macroeconomic exposure. This index is also an appraisal of the ability of countries to respond to shocks to their economic systems. Relevant indicators include the density of exposed economic assets such as commercial and industrial infrastructure. Metrics used to measure the ability of a country to withstand shocks to its economic system include reliance on imports/exports, government debt, and purchasing power. The economic vulnerability category also considers the economic vitality of countries since the economic vitality of a country can be directly related to the vulnerability and resilience of its population. The latter includes measurements of single-sector economic dependence, income inequality, and employment status. Criteria for indicator selection To choose indicators contextually exclusive for use in each map, the starting point was an exhaustive review of the literature on earthquake social vulnerability and resilience. For a variable to be considered appropriate and selected, three equally important criteria were met: - variables were justified based on the literature regarding its relevance to one or more of the indices. - variables needed to be of consistent quality and freely available from sources such as the United Nations and the World Bank; and - variables must be scalable or available at various levels of geography to promote sub-country level analyses. This procedure resulted in a ‘wish list’ of approximately 300 variables of which 78 were available and fit for use based on the three criteria. Process for indicator selection For variables to be allocated to an index, a two-tiered validation procedure was utilized. For the first tier, variables were assigned to each of the respective indices based on how each variable was cited within the literature, i.e., as being part of an index of social vulnerability, economic vulnerability, or recovery/resilience. For the second tier, machine learning and a multivariate ordinal logistic regression modelling procedure was used for external validation. Here, focus was placed on the statistical association between the socio-economic vulnerability indicators and the adverse impacts from historical earthquakes on a country-by country-basis. The Global Significant Earthquake Database provided the external validation metrics that were used as dependent variables in the statistical analysis. To include both severe and moderate earthquakes within the dependent variables, adverse impact data was collected from damaging earthquake events that conformed to at least one of five criteria: 1) caused deaths, 2) caused moderate damage (approximately $1 million USD or more), 3) had a magnitude 7.5 or greater 4) had a Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) X or greater, or 5) generated a tsunami. This database was chosen because it considers low magnitude earthquakes that were damaging (e.g., MW >=2.5 & MW<=5.5) and contains socio-economic data such as the total number of fatalities, injuries, houses damaged or destroyed, and dollar loss estimates in $USD. Countries not demonstrating at least a minimal earthquake risk, i.e., seismicity <0.05 PGA (Pagani et al. 2018) and <$10,000 USD in predicted average annual losses (Silva et al. 2018) were eliminated from the analyses so as not to include countries with minimal to no earthquake risk. A total study area consists of 136 countries. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation The Global Socio-Economic Vulnerability Maps 2020 is a product of the GEM Foundation’s collaborative work with the Department of Geography at the University of Connecticut, USA. GEM is a non-profit foundation in Pavia, Italy funded through a public-private partnership with a vision to create a world that is resilient to earthquakes. Formed in 2009 through the initiative of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Global Science Forum in 2006, GEM participants represent national research and disaster management institutions; private sector companies mainly in insurance, risk financing and engineering; and academic and international organizations. GEM’s OpenQuake Platform website (platform.openquake.org) provides access to all of the data, models, tools and software behind the maps. GEM’s open-source OpenQuake engine enables probabilistic hazard and risk calculations worldwide and at all scales, from global down to regional, national, local, and site-specific applications in a single software package. GEM supports the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) goals by contributing openly accessible products for hazard and risk assessment and capacity development through risk reduction projects. GEM also serves as a baseline or exemplar for the development of a broader multi-hazard framework for risk assessment in support of a holistic and comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction. Technical details on the development and compilation of the socio-economic vulnerability maps, underlying models and the list of contributors can be found at https://www.globalquakemodel.org/svrmaps/Economic-Vulnerability-Index-Technical-Description. How to use and cite this work Please cite this work as: C Burton, M. Toquica (September 2020). Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Social Vulnerability Map (version 2020.1) DOI: 10.13117/GEM-ECONOMIC-VULNERABILITY-MAP. This work is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution - Non Commercial-Share Alike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA). Acknowledgements This map is the result of a collaborative effort and extensively relies on the enthusiasm and commitment of various organisations to openly share and collaborate. The creation of this map would not have been possible without the support provided by several public and private organisations during GEM’s second and third working programmes, 2014-2018 and 2019-2021 respectively. None of this would have been possible without the extensive support of all GEM Secretariat staff. These key contributions are profoundly acknowledged. A complete list of the contributors can be found at: www. globalquakemodel.org/global-social-vulnerability. Legal statements This map is an informational product created by the GEM Foundation for public dissemination purposes. The information included in this map must not be used for the design of seismic socio-economic policies or to support any important decisions involving human life, capital and movable and immovable properties. The values of social vulnerability and risk values used in this map do not constitute an alternative nor do they replace any national government policy or actions defined in national codes or earthquake risk estimates derived nationally. Readers seeking this information should contact the national authorities tasked with socio economic and risk assessment. The socio-economic vulnerability maps are based on the results of an integration process that is solely the responsibility of the GEM Foundation. Contact GEM (Global Earthquake Model) Foundation Via Ferrata, 1 - 27100, Pavia, Italy info@globalquakemodel.org . More information available at: www. globalquakemodel.org/global-social-vulnerability MAJOR SPONSORS Verisk ARUP GEOSCIENCE AUSTRALIA CSSC NRCan EAFIT ETH ZURICH EUCENTRE FM GLOBAL GFZ GIROJ GNS SCIENCE HANNOVER RE MUNICH RE NTU ICRM NEPHILA NERC NIED NSET OYO PARTNER RE DPC SGC SWISS SER SWISS RE FOUNDATION SURAMERICANA TEM RCN USGS USAID WTW ZURICH INSURANCE

Publications Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) Training Manual Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2021 | User manual An example-based guide to building PSHA models using open-source data and tools.

Publications Call for Applications - Public Partnership Opportunity with the GEM Foundation Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2025 | Brochure The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation is committed to advancing earthquake risk assessment, modelling, and mitigation efforts worldwide. As part of our mission to strengthen global collaboration, we are offering a unique opportunity for public organisations to join GEM’s Governing Board as Public Governors. While GEM’s Public Governors typically contribute annual sponsorship fees, selected public sector partners under this opportunity will instead be granted Public Governor status (for a period of 3 years) based purely on merit, strategic alignment, and contributions to seismic risk reduction. Through this partnership, Public Governors will gain access to GEM’s global network, research, models and tools, thus contributing to and benefiting from the latest advances in earthquake hazard and risk knowledge. We invite interested public organisations to submit a proposal outlining their commitment and potential contributions to GEM’s mission using the template that can be downloaded from the GEM website .

Publications Seismic risk assessment for the residential buildings of the three major cities in Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín, and Cali Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2020 | Peer-reviewed This study presents a seismic risk assessment and a set of earthquake scenarios for the residential building stock of the three largest metropolitan centers of Colombia: Bogotá, Medellín and Cali (with 8.0, 2.5, and 2.4 million inhabitants, respectively). A uniform methodology was followed for the development of the seismic hazard, vulnerability, and exposure models, thus allowing a direct comparison between the seismic risk of the different cities. Risk metrics such as exceedance probability curves and average annual losses were computed for each city. The earthquake scenarios were selected considering events whose direct economic impact is similar to the aggregated loss for a probability of exceedance of 10% in 50 years. Results show a higher mean aggregate loss ratio for Cali and similar mean aggregate loss ratios for Bogotá and Medellín. All of the models used in this study are openly accessible, enabling risk modelers, engineers, and stakeholders to explore them for disaster risk management.

Publications Colombia Seismic Model Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2020 | Report Colombia occupies a territory in which the forces of nature and their geological expression produce events that can be dangerous for the population. This environment is a challenge that demands the country (and us, as citizens) the best efforts to understand the dynamics of the earth, so that we can design our cities and infrastructure in the best possible way, using the available knowledge.

Publications Modelo Probabilístico de Amenaza Sísmica para la República Dominicana Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2022 | Report Descripción del modelo probabilístico de amenaza sísmica desarrollado para La República Dominicana

Publications GEM Strategic Plan and Roadmap to 2030 Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2022 | Brochure GEM was founded in 2009 with the purpose of improving the global knowledge of earthquake risk and contributing to the reduction of risk worldwide. In more than a decade, GEM has become widely known for its global effort to improve the state of practice of earthquake hazard and risk assessment and for its contribution to improving the state of knowledge of earthquake risk. Overview

MISSION The GEM Foundation is a non-profit, public-private partnership that drives a global collaborative effort to develop scientific and high-quality resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk and to facilitate their application for risk management around the globe. Assisted by an initiative of the OECD's Global Science Forum, GEM was formed in 2009 as a non-profit foundation in Pavia, Italy, funded through a public-private sponsorship with the vision to create a world that is resilient to earthquakes and other natural hazards. Through global partnerships, GEM’s mission is to: continue to be the world’s official, most complete source of earthquake risk resources and a globally accepted standard for risk assessment; ensure that GEM products find application in catastrophe risk management worldwide; become a global leader in integrated, multi-hazard risk assessment and resilience planning. Share Facebook LinkedIn GEM builds capacity to assess and manage risk through open, transparent and collaborative seismic risk assessment at local, national, regional and global scales. Using state-of-the-art tools, GEM is committed to share and advocate open, reliable earthquake risk information to support sound disaster risk-reduction planning at various levels. Openness Open data, open software, transparent processes, freely accessible to the public Collaboration Public-private partnership, inclusiveness, working together across geographies and disciplines Credibility Commitment to scientific credibility, trusted by local and global partners and peers Public Good Motivated by the welfare of the public, works to serve the public good Core Values

Back to El Salvador Outcomes El Salvador FORCE Project Key Findings for El Salvador Resumen Ejecutivo Proyecto FORCE - Pronóstico y Comunicación de la Amenaza y el Riesgo Sísmico Objetivo Evaluar el riesgo sísmico de El Salvador en sus condiciones actuales, y en los próximos 30 años bajo dos escenarios: manteniendo las prácticas constructivas actuales y adoptando plenamente un código sísmico moderno. Vulnerabilidad Sísmica Actual en El Salvador 40 de cada 100 estructuras expuestas no cumple a cabalidad con normativas sísmicas. $35 de cada $100 dólares invertidos están en estructuras con vulnerabilidad alta o muy alta. 39 de cada 100 personas se encuentran en algún momento del día en edificaciones con vulnerabilidad alta o muy alta. Riesgo Sísmico Actual en El Salvador: ¿Cuánto podemos perder debido a un largo periodo de sismicidad? 128 de cada 1,000 estructuras del inventario nacional se pierden en un promedio anual. $4 millones de cada $1,000 millones invertidos en construcción se pierden en un promedio anual. 2 de cada 100,000 habitantes se pierden en un promedio anual. Crecimiento del Sector Vivienda en El Salvador En los últimos 20 años el número de viviendas ocupadas ha crecido entre un 2% y un 3% anual. Esto implica entre 50 mil y 60 mil viviendas nuevas adicionales en el inventario nacional cada año. Escenario A: ¿Cuál sería nuestro riesgo sísmico en el 2055 si seguimos construyendo de la misma manera? Asumiendo una tasa promedio de crecimiento del sector residencial del 2.5% anual y precios constructivos constantes, en 30 años El Salvador tendría 1.6 millones de edificaciones residenciales nuevas y $165 mil millones adicionales invertidos en el inventario nacional. Siguiendo las mismas prácticas constructivas actuales, esto resultaría en un incremento en el riesgo humano y económico del 22% y 9% respectivamente, en el año 2055. Escenario B: ¿Cuál sería nuestro riesgo sísmico en el 2055 si todos usáramos el código sísmico? Asumiendo una tasa promedio de crecimiento del sector residencial del 2.1% anual y precios constructivos constantes, en 30 años El Salvador tendría 1.1 millones de edificaciones residenciales nuevas y $117 mil millones adicionales invertidos en el inventario nacional. Siguiendo un código sísmico moderno a cabalidad en todas las estructuras nuevas, esto resultaría en una reducción del riesgo cercana a 22% y 38% en términos humanos y económicos respectivamente, en el año 2055. Si desea profundizar en los detalles del proyecto, le invitamos a consultar la página de MARN www.snet.gob.sv/informacion/?area=sismologia