News GEM: helping reduce earthquake infrastructure damage through science #BuildToLast By: Oct 7, 2019 Share Facebook LinkedIn Earthquakes are the number one cause of fatalities due to natural hazards from 1998-2017 -- with the majority caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2010 Haiti earthquakes -- and the number two cause in terms of economic losses, second only to storms. (CRED-UNISDR 2018) During that period, earthquakes caused more than half (56%) of the 1.3 million fatalities and cost USD 661 billion or 23% of the USD 2.9 trillion reported economic losses. (CRED-UNISDR 2018) Majority of the fatalities and injuries from earthquakes are due to building collapse attributed to poorly constructed buildings, lack of adherence to land-use zoning and building codes. The limited knowledge and understanding of citizens regarding the risks and mitigation measures around disasters could have also contributed to less demand for accountability. (Why Do People Die in Earthquakes? - Kenny, 2009) We cannot build a sustainable future with these monumental numbers. But as daunting as they might seem, they are not insurmountable and solutions are available. What can we do to address this? This year’s International Day for DRR theme is ‘Build to Last’, which is Target D of the Sendai Framework: to reduce disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services. GEM believes that by better understanding earthquake risk, and developing the capacity of disaster risk reduction stakeholders, we can significantly reduce fatalities, injuries and economic losses from disaster damage through open risk data sharing; the use and promotion of transparent risk assessment tools; adherence to scientific methodologies; inclusiveness and participation; and putting the interest of the public to the fore. John Schneider, GEM Secretary General explains, “Earthquakes might be few and far in between, but when they strike the consequences are of epic proportions.” He adds that since 2009, GEM has been at the forefront of developing open analysis tools, global databases, models at various scales, and capacities of DRR scholars and practitioners to combat the damaging effects of earthquakes to human lives, infrastructure and economy. The importance of understanding seismic hazard The first global seismic hazard model was created within the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) at the end of the 1990's (Giardini et al., 1999). It represented a substantial improvement in our understanding of earthquake hazard globally and offered essential information for the design of buildings and land-use planning to many countries. (GAR, 2019) Almost twenty years later, GEM in collaboration with several organisations and projects released a new compilation of probabilistic seismic hazard models called the GEM earthquake hazard mosaic of earthquake hazard models created either at national or regional (i.e. continental) scale. (GAR, 2019) Marco Pagani, GEM Hazard Team Coordinator explains how GEM’s Global Earthquake Hazard model can be used to help improve resilience to earthquakes. “Many of the models contained in this collection are already used at national level to update building codes and compute risk at national level. Overall, this compilation of models provides a summary of the best science currently applied to the assessment of seismic hazard across the world at national and regional levels.” The importance of understanding seismic risk The calculation of earthquake risk requires a robust earthquake hazard model that defines where, how often and how severely earthquakes will strike in the future; an exposure model (building stock); and vulnerability and fragility functions (likelihood of damage to buildings). Vitor Silva, GEM Risk Team Coordinator says, "GEM’s Global Earthquake Risk model can be used to support decision-makers in the identification of regions that are prone to higher and more frequent earthquake-induced hazards and losses, to distinguish construction types that have high vulnerability, and to devise strategies for effective risk mitigation." To further complicate the problem, in terms of risk reduction, earthquakes pose a particular set of problems for countries in seismically active areas. ‘Return periods’ are long and unpredictable, so low mortality in the recent past is not an indicator of future earthquake risk. (Economic Losses, Poverty and Disasters 1998-2017 - CRED-UNISDR, 2018) A sustainable future This is the reason why risk-informed development planning in earthquake-prone areas cannot be overemphasized. The unpredictability of earthquakes combined with their damaging and deadly effects hinder sustainable development, creation of jobs and availability of funds for poverty reduction initiatives. Understanding risk is a prerequisite for a sustainable future. Mami Mizutori, UN Special Representative of the Secretary General for Disaster Risk Reduction says, “If it’s not risk informed, it’s not sustainable; and if it’s not sustainable it has a human cost.” To help achieve this year’s DRR Day theme, GEM has compiled in the Related Content sidebar several links to GEM’s products useful for developing disaster risk reduction management strategies. No images found. GALLERY 1/8 #BuildToLast quote cards from UNDRR VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS #BuildToLast useful resources (links) For the general public Global Maps (Hazard, Risk and Exposure) Africa Maps (Hazard, Risk and Exposure) Country Risk Profiles For scientists, researchers and modelers OpenQuake (entire suite) - engine, platform, toolkits, user guides Africa Model (datasets) Glossary for GEM Taxonomy website Building Classification Survey website Publications GAR Global Earthquake Model paper/article Guidelines for Analytical Vulnerability Assessment Low/Mid Rise Guidelines for component-based analytical vulnerability assessment of buildings and non-structural elements Guidelines for empirical vulnerability assessment Introduction to GEM earthquake consequences database OpenQuake Platform (vulnerability, fragility, exposure databases)

Back to El Salvador Outcomes El Salvador FORCE Project Key Findings for El Salvador Resumen Ejecutivo Proyecto FORCE - Pronóstico y Comunicación de la Amenaza y el Riesgo Sísmico Objetivo Evaluar el riesgo sísmico de El Salvador en sus condiciones actuales, y en los próximos 30 años bajo dos escenarios: manteniendo las prácticas constructivas actuales y adoptando plenamente un código sísmico moderno. Vulnerabilidad Sísmica Actual en El Salvador 40 de cada 100 estructuras expuestas no cumple a cabalidad con normativas sísmicas. $35 de cada $100 dólares invertidos están en estructuras con vulnerabilidad alta o muy alta. 39 de cada 100 personas se encuentran en algún momento del día en edificaciones con vulnerabilidad alta o muy alta. Riesgo Sísmico Actual en El Salvador: ¿Cuánto podemos perder debido a un largo periodo de sismicidad? 128 de cada 1,000 estructuras del inventario nacional se pierden en un promedio anual. $4 millones de cada $1,000 millones invertidos en construcción se pierden en un promedio anual. 2 de cada 100,000 habitantes se pierden en un promedio anual. Crecimiento del Sector Vivienda en El Salvador En los últimos 20 años el número de viviendas ocupadas ha crecido entre un 2% y un 3% anual. Esto implica entre 50 mil y 60 mil viviendas nuevas adicionales en el inventario nacional cada año. Escenario A: ¿Cuál sería nuestro riesgo sísmico en el 2055 si seguimos construyendo de la misma manera? Asumiendo una tasa promedio de crecimiento del sector residencial del 2.5% anual y precios constructivos constantes, en 30 años El Salvador tendría 1.6 millones de edificaciones residenciales nuevas y $165 mil millones adicionales invertidos en el inventario nacional. Siguiendo las mismas prácticas constructivas actuales, esto resultaría en un incremento en el riesgo humano y económico del 22% y 9% respectivamente, en el año 2055. Escenario B: ¿Cuál sería nuestro riesgo sísmico en el 2055 si todos usáramos el código sísmico? Asumiendo una tasa promedio de crecimiento del sector residencial del 2.1% anual y precios constructivos constantes, en 30 años El Salvador tendría 1.1 millones de edificaciones residenciales nuevas y $117 mil millones adicionales invertidos en el inventario nacional. Siguiendo un código sísmico moderno a cabalidad en todas las estructuras nuevas, esto resultaría en una reducción del riesgo cercana a 22% y 38% en términos humanos y económicos respectivamente, en el año 2055. Si desea profundizar en los detalles del proyecto, le invitamos a consultar la página de MARN www.snet.gob.sv/informacion/?area=sismologia

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Publications The hazard component of OpenQuake: The calculation engine of the Global Earthquake Model Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2012 | Peer-reviewed We present OpenQuake-Hazard: the seismic hazard calculator of the OpenQuake engine, the seismic risk platform promoted and developed by the Global Earthquake Model initiative. OpenQuake-Hazard is designed to be an open, transparent, and community driven tool for seismic hazard analysis. The source code is hosted on public repositories that allow for distributed development and it’s implemented following modern software design principles like test driven development and continuous integration. It uses an XML-based data exchange format (called NRML, ‘Natural hazard’ Risk Markup Language) and its design reflects the analysis of seismic hazard models produced for different regions of the world (it’s therefore not tight to the needs of a particular geographical/tectonic region).

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News Urban hazard assessment of selected cities in Latin America By: Jun 6, 2022 Share Facebook LinkedIn Latin America is no stranger to earthquakes and records reveal seismic activity in Quito (Ecuador) dating back to the 1587 Guayllabamba earthquake. The urban centres built on deep alluvial basins have the potential to amplify the seismic waves thereby increasing the intensity of ground shaking. The rapid urbanisation in these cities only adds to the seismic risk of the built environment and human casualties. One of the objectives of this project was to build seismic hazard and risk models incorporating the local site effects that can be useful for engineers and policymakers in making an informed decision. GEM scientists developed site response models for three urban centres, namely, Cali, Colombia; Quito, Ecuador; and Santiago, Dominican Republic, based on geotechnical data provided by local experts. GEM used the available methods to combine in a probabilistic framework, the seismic sources (such as faults), ground motion models and the local site response models to compute the intensity of ground shaking at the surface. The end product includes 1) hazard maps - showing the level of ground motion at a certain probability of exceedance in the given time frame, 2) hazard curves and 3) uniform hazard spectra. The results of site response analyses show in some cases (e.g. in Cali) the de-amplification of motion, whereas in others - like in Quito and Santiago - increased levels of shaking. In some zones in each of these cities, soil softening and hardening, as well as resonance was captured in the site response models. At some locations, the use of site-specific information in hazard calculation produces estimates that are nearly twice that of ground motion values at bedrock. Further, the study highlights the prominent non-linear behaviour in soft soils at high levels of ground shaking which can be captured only through site specific amplification models and their impact on seismic hazard and risk. No images found. GALLERY Hazard map for the Hispaniola island considering local site effects. The map shows peak ground acceleration values corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. 1/2 Gallery VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News News Briefs: April-June 2025 By: Jul 7, 2025 Jul 8, 2025 Share Facebook LinkedIn GEM Governing Board Meets in Pavia GEM’s Summer Governing Board meeting was held on 26–27 June 2025 in Pavia. The agenda included partner presentations, project updates, and public sponsorship renewals. Four new members were also confirmed to GEM’s Advisory Board: Justin Ginnetti (IFRC), Finn Løvholt (NGI and Global Tsunami Model Association), Renato Solidum Jr. (Secretary, DOST Philippines), and Iain Stewart (University of Plymouth/Royal Scientific Society of Jordan), who was appointed Vice Chair. The group brings a valuable mix of science, governance, and risk expertise. GEM concludes participation in EU METIS project GEM wrapped up its role in the EU-funded METIS project this June. Coordinated by EDF under Horizon 2020 Euratom, METIS aimed to advance seismic risk assessment for nuclear facilities. GEM led enhancements to OpenQuake for hazard-to-risk modelling and supported workflows linking seismic hazard with probabilistic safety assessments. The project’s open methodologies are expected to benefit nuclear safety reviews across Europe. More at www.metis-h2020.eu . GEM at Oasis Insight 2025 in London GEM joined industry leaders at the Oasis Insight Conference, held 30 April – 1 May at Glaziers Hall, London. Vitor Silva spoke on emerging global risk modelling challenges, while Pratim Parash Kalita showcased GEM’s open tools and datasets at the exhibit booth. The event, hosted by Oasis and Lloyd’s Market Association, highlighted advances in open catastrophe modelling and cross-sector collaboration. GEM at EGU2025 GEM researchers and collaborators participated in the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2025 in Vienna from 27 April – 2 May 2025, presenting new methods on rupture geometry, site effects, hazard grid optimisation, and EO-based exposure disaggregation. Julián Santiago Montejo, a GEM-TREAD PhD student, received an OSPP Award (outstanding student and PhD candidate presentation) for his poster on optimal site hazard grids. GEM also supported Lisa Jusufi’s participation, following her team’s success as Best Group Presentation at the GEM-EGU Summer School last year. Presentations highlighted GEM’s applied risk science in Colombia, Türkiye, Nepal, and France. GEM holds PSHA and OpenQuake training in Camerino From 9–12 June, GEM delivered a four-day course on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and OpenQuake at the University of Camerino, Italy. Led by GEM Seismic Hazard Scientists Kirsty Bayliss and Christopher Brooks, the training combined lectures and hands-on exercises for students and researchers. The course aimed to strengthen local capacity in applying open-source hazard modelling tools. Ground failure meets ShakeMap EU At the Third European ShakeMap Workshop, funded by the GeoINQUIRE project, on 5 June 2025 at INGV Milan, Lana Todorović, GEM Collaborator on Liquefaction and Landslide Modeling, presented her work on integrating liquefaction models into the ShakeMap EU workflow. Her presentation explored how combining ground failure modelling with real-time ground shaking maps can improve impact assessments and emergency response across Europe. Celebrating research milestones in seismic risk On 29 May 2025, during the International ROSE Seminar in Pavia, GEM PhD researchers Lana Todorović and Naveen Ragu Ramalingam successfully defended their doctoral theses. Lana presented her work on liquefaction risk assessment, while Naveen introduced machine learning methods for modelling offshore-to-onshore tsunami impacts. Both are PhD students at IUSS Pavia. Congratulations to them for advancing research in geohazard and tsunami risk. Bridging modelling and vulnerability at COMPDYN2025 At COMPDYN2025 in Rhodes, Greece (10–12 June), GEM’s Al Mouayed Bellah Nafeh and Karim Aljawhari presented work on open-source tools and global vulnerability databases. Furkan Narlitepe (IUSS Pavia) shared his research on retrofitted building vulnerability and cost–benefit analysis, while Amir Taherian (University of Aveiro) introduced machine learning models calibrated with nonlinear simulations. The event convened experts in structural dynamics and earthquake engineering, highlighting applied research supporting improved seismic risk and disaster mitigation strategies. GEM at ICOSSAR’25 in Los Angeles At the 14th ICOSSAR, held 1–6 June 2025 at the University of Southern California, GEM’s Karim Aljawhari co-convened Session 37: Vulnerability of the Built Environment with Meera Raghunandan (IIT Bombay) and Eyitayo Opabola (UC Berkeley). The session explored data-driven strategies to assess direct and indirect impacts of natural hazards. GEM also joined broader discussions on structural reliability and uncertainty quantification, reinforcing its commitment to science-based, collaborative approaches to disaster risk reduction and resilience of the global built environment. GEM LinkedIn Poll: Where Public Institutions Need Support Most In a recent GEM LinkedIn poll, 54% of respondents said collaborative risk modelling would most support seismic risk mitigation in their country, followed by model and software training (37%) and input to seismic design codes (9%). The poll was held alongside the launch of GEM’s Public Sponsorship Scheme. Although applications for the merit-based sponsorship tier closed on 24 May 2025, updates and partnership opportunities can be followed at: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/get-involved?tab=partnership-opportunity 29 April: International Day in Memory of Earthquake Victims The UN General Assembly has officially designated 29 April as the International Day in Memory of the Victims of Earthquakes, following a resolution led by Uzbekistan, Chile, and the Philippines. GEM welcomes this recognition as a reminder of the shared responsibility to turn remembrance into action. Honouring the lives lost means continuing to build seismic knowledge, support safer construction, and train local capacity to reduce future risk. Click here for more details. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS