Projects TREAD daTa and pRocesses in sEismic hAzarD Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background GEM is one of the partners of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) funded TREAD project, which involves a consortium of 14 academic institutions and 8 private partners of the highest scientific level from 7 European countries. TREAD will train a new generation of seismic hazard scientists to tackle the challenges of earthquake forecasting in complex tectonic contexts such as the Europe and Mediterranean regions. During the 4 year project GEM will host and supervise two PhD students, one working with the hazard team and the other with the risk team, on the following topics: 1. Modelling distributed seismicity under innovative approaches (under joint supervision with the University of Milano, Bicocca, 2. Assessment of the impact of advanced seismic hazard modelling approaches on earthquake risk (under joint supervision with the University of Chieti-Pescara) More information at https://tread-horizon.eu/ . Duration: 2023-2027 Objectives The aim of TREAD is to train a new generation of seismic hazard scientists to tackle the challenges of earthquake forecasting in complex tectonic contexts such as the Europe and Mediterranean regions. A change of paradigm in seismic hazard is necessary to be able to fully account for the specific properties of earthquake source and seismic modes in those areas. For example, to calculate the probability of having multiple earthquake ruptures, the interaction between active faults across various space-time scales needs to be accounted for, as well as the effects of stress transfer and fault-fluid interaction in earthquake triggering. TREAD objectives are: 1) Developing a novel integrative approach to seismic hazard analysis in Europe and the Mediterranean by bridging the gap from small-scale laboratory experiments to large-scale observations. 2) Establishing physics-based earthquake modelling by linking computational modelling of earthquakes from millions of years to fractions of a second. 3) Transferring earthquake geology and computational modelling to hazard and risk assessment adapted to the needs of government, industry and scientific stakeholders. Collaborators University of Chieti-Pescara, CNRS, University of Utrecht, GEM Foundation, University of Grenoble Alps, Ludwig Maximilians University, University of Barcelona, University of Padova, ETH Zurich, IRSN, OGS, INGV, Ruhr University Bochum, IPGP, Helmholz Centre, Willis, IFP, EDF, University of Milan Bicocca, Munich Re, TNO, Tre Altamira, University D'Aix Marseille Funding partner: Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA), European Commission Location Pavia, Italy Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects CCARA Caribbean and Central America Earthquake Risk Assessment (CCARA) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outcomes Training Outreach Photos Publications Anchor 6 Background Earthquake risk is on the rise and earthquakes are expected to take an increasing number of lives. Hazard and risk assessments are the foundation for raising awareness among policy makers and the general public, forming the basis for decisions and actions that effectively build resilience and can reduce risk. While important work has been carried out in the Central American and Caribbean region to understand earthquake risk assessment and management there is still ample room to enhance that understanding and properly introduce it in decision- and policy-making processes. In many areas of the world, state-of-the-art information and tools to assess earthquake risk have been inaccessible for a long time. As a first step to tackle this problem, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has been created and spent the past 11 years collaboratively advancing open source science and technology for global state-of-the-art seismic hazard and risk modeling, data collection, and risk assessment at scales from local to national, regional, and global. Objectives The project aims to calculate hazard and risk, and to estimate the compounding social and economic factors that increase the physical damage and decrease the post-event capacities of populations to respond to and recover from damaging earthquake events in The Caribbean and Central America, by involving local experts from throughout the region. The goal of the Program in Central America and the Caribbean is to develop capacity in the region for earthquake risk assessment by leveraging GEM tools and resources, to enhance the understanding of earthquake risk, and to bridge the gap between risk assessment and disaster risk reduction. To improve the understanding of earthquake risk in the Central America and Caribbean region while developing local capacities to use open source resources for producing earthquake hazard and risk information at regional, national and local scales. To engage with decision-makers and other end-users to make the connection between advanced risk assessment by local experts and risk-reducing action and so influence DRR policy. Collaborators The CCARA project would not have been possible without the contributions of all the municipalities in particular: the Municipality of San José (Costa Rica), National Commission of Emergencies (CNE), University of Costa Rica (UCR) - Laboratorio Nacional de Materiales y Estructuras (LANAMME), INETER, ONESVIE, ODPEM, BRGM, Bureau des Mines, VT, Geologica UPR Mayaquez, UNI, SRC and UMG. Location Caribbean and Central America countries Website Caribbean and Central America Earthquake Risk Assessment (CCARA) wiki site contains an overview of the project. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 The CCARA project hosted four participants from South America to introduce seismic hazard and risk assessment using tools developed by GEM – specifically the OpenQuake engine. Anchor 4 Modelling subduction earthquakes: GEM experiences in Latin America CCARA project GEM presents the results of the USAID-funded CCARA Project in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic A hazard workshop in San José, Costa Rica from September 18th to 22nd as part of the risk assessment activities of the CCARA project. Anchor3 Publications CCAF-DB: The Caribbean and Central American Active Fault Database Disclaimer The contents of this project website such as studies, reports, audio-visual, news articles, blogs, and other information or media products including those in the external links are made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

Projects GFDRR-DFID GFDRR-DFID Challenge Funds Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the UK Department for International Development's (DFID) competitive Challenge Fund pilots new and innovative approaches to overcoming technical and technological challenges in order to strengthen disaster and climate risk decision-making in developing countries. To this end, this project is supporting the development of data, products, and approaches to support disaster risk management decision-making and build resilience, including through better information, but also strengthening key steps in moving from information to insight and behaviour change. Each challenge is focusing on the development of a database with hazard footprints, exposure information and vulnerability models. The viability of the databases will be demonstrated using exposure data for Tanzania and another DFID priority country. Objectives The project is divided into three components. The British Geological Survey leads the development of a data schema and data for a multi-hazard database (Challenge 1) while GEM and University College London lead the development of a global exposure database (Challenge 2) and open vulnerability platform for evaluating risk (Challenge 3) respectively. GEM also contributes to Challenge Fund 1 and 3. GEM leads Challenge Fund 2 on the development of a global exposure data framework, which includes the physical vulnerability characteristics and exposure taxonomy. The aim is to identify the most important vulnerability characteristics; ways to account for uncertainties in exposure and vulnerability models; type of assets that should be supported by the vulnerability and exposure database; and the most common and useful intensity measure types. The objective of this project is to develop a Data Exploration Tool to promote the ability of a user to access, understand and use hazard, exposure and vulnerability data stored in a format that follows the data schema developed by the Challenge Fund consortia. British Geological Survey (BGS) leads the development of a data schema and data for a multi-hazard database (Challenge 1) GEM Foundation leads the development of a global exposure database (Challenge 2) University College London (UCL) leads the development of open vulnerability platform for evaluating risk (Challenge 3) Various organizations also participated and contributed to the project such as the Geological Survey of Tanzania; Ardhi University (Tanzania); Dar Es Salaam University (Tanzania); DFID Tanzania; Prime Minister's Office - Disaster Management Department (Tanzania); DoMA (Malawi); INGC (Mozambique); Ministry of Energy & Mineral Development (Uganda); ImageCat (USA); Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT Indonesia); NSET (Nepal); IDF (Switzerland); UA (Netherlands); NGI (Norway); NOC (UK); CIMA (Italy); and UCL-EPI (UK). Locations Tanzania and neighbouring countries Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 The GFDRR-DFID Challenge Fund projects on the development of exposure, vulnerability and hazard footprints databases kicked off with a 2-day inception workshop. The University College London (UCL) EPICentre and CatLin XL hosted the second workshop held on July 27 in London to collect feedback. A consortium led by the GEM Foundation with partners ImageCat Inc. and the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team completed recently an open exposure database for multi-hazard risk assessment... Anchor3 Publications GFDRR-UK Aid Challenge Fund: Final Learning Report: Value of Risk Information for Decision Making May 31, 2018 How can innovative approaches make communities more resilient to climate change and natural disasters? GFDRR-DFID Challenge Funds Round 2 Extensible Data Schemas for Multiple Hazards, Exposure and Vulnerability Data published as part of the UNDRR GAR2019 . Data schema and data: for multi-hazard database (BGS), for global exposure database (GEM), for a global database of vulnerability functions (UCL)

Projects WFP-ADAM+ WFP-ADAM+ Innovation Accelerator Project Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background The World Food Programme (WFP) Innovation Accelerator was established in 2016 to identify, support, and scale innovative solutions that contribute to ending global hunger by 2030. Based in Munich, Germany, the Accelerator provides funding, hands-on support, and access to WFP’s global operations and expert networks to empower WFP teams, entrepreneurs, start-ups, and NGOs worldwide. GEM participated in the Accelerator’s five-day bootcamp, held from November 27–29, 2023, where innovation and humanitarian experts collaborated with start-ups and WFP innovators to address field-level challenges, refine project strategies, and develop scalable solutions. Following this process, GEM successfully secured a place in the Accelerator’s Sprint Programme, a six-month initiative designed to advance innovations from proof of concept to prototype implementation. The bootcamp culminated in GEM’s participation in the WFP Accelerator Pitch Event in February 2024 in Munich, where GEM was selected as one of eight innovations to present its project to WFP senior management and potential funders. Duration: 2024 - 2025 Overall Objective The project aims to integrate GEM’s earthquake risk methodologies and datasets into humanitarian emergency preparedness and response efforts. By leveraging GEM’s expertise, the project seeks to enhance global access to reliable earthquake risk data and post-disaster impact assessments for humanitarian actors. This will be achieved by testing GEM’s models within WFP’s ADAM tool , ensuring they align with humanitarian needs in earthquake-prone regions. Expected Outputs 1. Improved Spatial Risk Assessment for Preparedness Development of high-resolution datasets on building exposure, population demographics (including gender and age groups), and vulnerability indicators. Validation of these datasets through ADAM-Preparedness to enhance the identification of at-risk communities. 2. Enhanced Post-Earthquake Impact Assessments Rapid estimation of affected populations within hours of an earthquake using USGS ground-shaking data integrated with GEM’s exposure and vulnerability layers. A refined impact assessment within 48 hours, leveraging GEM’s full modeling capabilities to estimate damaged buildings, displaced populations, homelessness, and fatalities for improved humanitarian response. Collaborators Coordination World Food Programme Project partner Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, Italy Funding partner: W orld Food Programme Innovation Accelerator Programme, Munich, Germany Locations Earthquake-prone WFP Countries with initial pilots in Afghanistan, Nepal, Turkey, Syria, Haiti, and the Philippines. Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects CAREC Developing a Disaster Risk Transfer Facility in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Outreach Anchor 6 Background Willis Towers Watson, a GEM Advisor Sponsor is leading the consortium of organizations to implement the project, “Developing a Disaster Risk Transfer Facility in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region” supported by the Asian Development Bank. The GEM Risk Team is responsible for the exposure and seismic vulnerability components of the project, with the Hazard Team providing support in the preparation of risk profiles for countries in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region. Objectives The project has three main components: (i) development of disaster risk assessments and modeling in all CAREC countries; (ii) design of a regional pilot disaster risk transfer facility for at least three CAREC countries; and (iii) capacity building and awareness raising activities to sensitize key public and private stakeholders in all CAREC countries about the benefits of disaster risk reduction, risk retention and risk transfer solutions. Willis Towers Watson, a GEM Advisor Sponsor is leading the consortium of organizations that will implement the project. The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, or CAREC Program is a partnership of 11 countries (Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, People's Republic of China, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), supported by 6 multilateral institutions, working together to promote development through cooperation, leading to accelerated growth and poverty reduction. Location Central Asia Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 ADB project overview and data sheet Read more GEM has started a new project with WTW supported by the Asian Development Bank Read more About the CAREC program Read more Anchor3 Publications

Projects BEYOND BUTTON PUSHING Earthquake Risk Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis for California Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Report Anchor 6 Background The goal of the project was to show how important the quantification of uncertainty is in estimating and understanding California’s earthquake risk using OpenQuake - GEM Foundation’s state-of-the-art open source earthquake hazard and risk assessment software. With OpenQuake’s plug-and-play capabilities, expert users can individually select or substitute every model component, data, and assumption. This feature will help model users and decision makers to: 1) ‘ask the right questions’ when evaluating model results; 2) better interpret risk assessment results and gain trust in model results; and 3) make better risk management decisions. Duration: 2015-2017 Objectives The main objectives of this project are to: Establish representative sets of exposure: ‣ for the San Francisco Bay Area; ‣ for the Southern California region affected by the Shakeout Scenario Choose specific results (risk metrics) to use as a basis for comparison. Produce ‘baseline’ results from OpenQuake, using a ‘control’ set of assumptions. Undertake a thorough sensitivity analysis for the risk estimates for California based on the UCERF3 model by running OpenQuake multiple times, each time varying one assumption or parameter, such as: ‣ earthquake probabilities (controlled by assumptions about fault geometries, slip rates, maximum magnitudes); ‣ ground motion model selection; ‣ vulnerability functions; ‣ site conditions; and ‣ statistical treatment of uncertainty and correlation Beyond the aims stated at the outset of the project as listed above, several additional objectives were achieved during the course of the project, including the following: Implement within OpenQuake the latest seismic hazard model for California based on the recently published Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF3), produced by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. Calculate the average annual loss estimates for all 8,057 census tracts in California, using the seismic hazard model based on UCERF3. Establish the range (distribution) of scientifically viable results for the chosen risk metrics by accounting for the various uncertainties in the hazard model. Identify the components of the hazard model contributing most to the overall uncertainty in the risk metrics for the different exposure portfolios. Implement a model simplification (‘logic-tree trimming’) software tool to reduce the number of computer runs and greatly speed up the time required for running the risk model for California. Collaborators GEM Foundation Funding partner: Alfred E. Alquist Seismic Safety Commission (SSC) Location California, United States Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications A Report Prepared by the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (GEM) authored by Anirudh Rao, Graeme Weatherill, Vitor Silva, and John Schneider for the CALIFORNIA SEISMIC SAFETY COMMISSION, USA. [Download ]

Projects EU DRR Regional risk modelling and scenario analysis for EU Member States - Seismic risk analysis and exposure data Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background This project supports the World Bank Technical Assistance project "Economic Analysis of Prevention and Preparedness in European Union Member States and Countries under EU Civil Protection Mechanism". The GEM Risk Team provides exposure and probabilistic seismic risk assessments for the 27 EU member states and 6 participating states, building upon the EFEHR ESHM20 hazard and ESRM20 exposure datasets [insert link www.efehr.org ], adding educational and healthcare building stock, and forecasting exposure to 2050. Further, retrofitted vulnerability curves are derived to inform the seismic impact analyses and a cost-benefit analysis. Duration: 2020-2021 Objectives The project is conducted in collaboration with the European Commission’s (EC) Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG ECHO). The objectives of this project are to: 1. Provide regionally-consistent probabilistic seismic risk metrics across Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) countries for population and selected structure types, to inform macro-economic analysis that is to be conducted by the World Bank project team. 2. Provide seismic impact analysis for two selected earthquake scenarios with and without specified DRM intervention, to estimate the impact of that intervention on i) loss due to direct damage and ii) fatalities. This will contribute to cost-benefit analysis of EU-funded DRM investments conducted by the WB project team using the Triple-Dividend framework. Collaborators GEM Foundation Funding partner: World Bank Group Locations EU Member States Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects BACK TO NORMAL Earthquake Recovery Modelling Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background To address some of the key factors that influence recovery following a potentially devastating earthquake, the Alfred E. Alquist Seismic Safety Commission (SSC) engaged the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) Foundation and the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, a) to develop a methodology and an open-source and transparent software tool to estimate recovery states and recovery times following an earthquake; and b) to investigate the effect of external socio-economic factors on these recovery times. Objectives This project achieved the following main objectives: 1. Development of a user-friendly, non-commercial and transparent software tool, herein referred as the Integrated Risk Modelling Toolkit (IRMT), to make map-based comparisons showing the effect of different resilient actions on the recovery times. 2. Development of an analytic methodology, referred as the Reconstruction Recovery Model, to estimate post-earthquake recovery 3. Integration of the Reconstruction Recovery Model for practical use into GEM’s OpenQuake modelling platform. 4. Demonstration of reasonable results by using the methodologies to model past earthquakes. In this context, the 2014 M6 South Napa Earthquake was used as a case study. Collaborators Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) Location California, United States Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects COMET GEM COMET-GEM Central Asia Seismic Hazard Project Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 Background Since 2021, COMET and GEM have partnered to integrate the latest advancements in earthquake science into seismic hazard and risk modeling. The first phase of the collaboration (2020–2022) focused on building essential datasets, including an active fault database, a homogenized earthquake catalog, GNSS data, and a preliminary seismic hazard model for Central Asia. The ongoing second phase (2023–2025), supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), UK, expands on these efforts by incorporating time-dependent hazard modeling, earthquake clustering analysis, and geodetic data processing. By bridging scientific research with practical applications, the collaboration ensures that hazard models remain at the forefront of earthquake risk assessment, strengthening disaster preparedness efforts in Central Asia and beyond. Duration: Phase 1: 2021 -2023, Phase 2: 2023 - 2025 More details: https://comet.nerc.ac.uk/ Overall Objective The COMET-GEM collaboration aims to develop an advanced, publicly accessible seismic hazard and risk model for Central Asia, integrating cutting-edge scientific methods such as satellite geodesy, palaeoseismology, and geodetic data analysis. The goal is to provide local communities, researchers, and policymakers with robust hazard and risk assessments to inform disaster risk reduction strategies and enhance preparedness for future seismic events. Specific Objectives / Expected Outputs 1. Enhancing Seismic Hazard Models Refining fault databases, earthquake catalogs, and strain rate fields to improve hazard predictions. Incorporating time-dependent earthquake occurrence models and earthquake clustering analysis to improve forecasting. 2. Integrating Advanced Scientific Techniques Utilizing InSAR-based deformation data and GNSS datasets to quantify seismic strain accumulation across Central Asia. Developing high-resolution geodetic velocity fields for improved hazard modeling. 3. Supporting Disaster Risk Reduction Integrating hazard models into seismic risk assessments to estimate economic and human losses. Engaging local communities and stakeholders in seismic hazard model development. 4. Collaborative Research and Capacity Building Hosting workshops and training sessions to enhance regional expertise in seismic hazard assessment. Supporting research collaborations in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and beyond. Collaborators Project Coordination: COMET and GEM, with contributions from UK-based institutions Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation COMET (Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes & Tectonics) British Geological Survey (BGS) University of Oxford (geologic data compilation) University of Leeds (geodetic data processing) Various local and international research institutions Funding Partner: Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), UK Locations Primary Focus Region: Central Asia Additional Areas of Study: South Caucasus, Türkiye, Mongolia Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications

Projects SERENE Project Scientific Evidence for Risk Engineering Norms and Education (SERENE) Versión en español English version Share Facebook LinkedIn Overview Anchor 6 The SERENE Project stands for Scientific Evidence for Risk Engineering Norms and Education . It’s a strategic, public-private partnership between the National Building Review Board (NBRB) and the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, a globally recognized authority on seismic hazard and risk modeling. This multi-year program brings together world-class seismic risk models, technical mentorship, and national policy frameworks to strengthen Uganda’s ability to withstand earthquake-related disasters. This initiative is all about protecting lives, homes, schools, hospitals, and infrastructure across Uganda by applying world-class science and data to strengthen how we plan, build, and regulate our cities. While natural hazards cannot be prevented, many building-related disasters - particularly fires and structural failures - are avoidable through improved design, compliance, and enforcement. SERENE integrates both natural and human-induced risks to support a safer and more resilient built environment. SERENE is not only a seismic risk initiative - it is a national platform for understanding and reducing risks in the built environment, including those arising from fires, building failures, and unsafe construction practices. For more information, please visit: https://serene-project.nbrb.go.ug/ Goals of the Project The SERENE Project addresses seismic risk at every level, from scientific modelling to on-the-ground training. Its key goals include: Developing Uganda’s first national seismic hazard map Creating exposure models to assess vulnerable building stock Updating Uganda’s seismic code (US319:2003), seismic design updates, and disaster planning. Training engineers, inspectors, and policymakers Supporting disaster-preparedness and early warning strategies Enhancing regulations for future construction and retrofitting All of this aligns with Uganda’s Vision 2040, the National Development Plan (NDP IV), National Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy, Uganda Seismic Code modernization process and the Sustainable Development Goals Collaborators This partnership is formalized under a 3-year agreement (2025–2028), making Uganda the first African country to be granted full participation in GEM’s strategic governance without financial contribution. Uganda holds a Governor-level seat on GEM’s board, joining an elite global group shaping earthquake safety policy. NBRB A statutory body established under the Building Control Act, is mandated to promote and ensure planned, decent and safe building structures that are developed in harmony with the environment in Uganda. GEM Foundation Provides open-source software, seismic hazard models, technical mentorship, and access to global risk modelling platforms like OpenQuake. Location Uganda Anchor 1 Anchor 5 Anchor 4 Anchor3 Publications