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Institutional Projects

SURA Project's Milestones

The SURA project focused on enhancing OpenQuake's efficiency and developing a tailored rupture catalogue for Latin America. Improved computational efficiency now allows intricate risk calculations for vast regions with complex reinsurance schemes. Exporting loss curves based on Occurrence Exceedance Probability (OEP) and Aggregate Exceedance Probability (AEP) is now feasible. The curated rupture catalogue covers Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Mexico, and Panama, ensuring consistent magnitude-frequency distributions and loss estimations across countries with different hazard models.

Colombia's National Earthquake Risk Model

GEM collaborates with the Colombian Geological Survey (SGC) and 11 universities to develop Colombia's National Earthquake Risk Model (MNRS). GEM leverages its experience in urban, national, and regional risk modelling using the OpenQuake engine. MNRS integrates detailed residential exposure models and vulnerability functions for representative building classes, developed by local experts. Expected in 2024, the model will feature public data on human impact, building damage, and economic losses for probabilistic risk and earthquake scenarios.

Central America's PSHA Model Development

GEM's work in the FORCE project focuses on developing a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) model for Central America. Key tasks involve developing datasets for seismic source characterisation, including a fault database derived from a block model encompassing the region. Advancements in homogenising the event catalogues and streamlining the workflow in the Modelling Building Toolkit (MBTK) are notable achievements within this initiative, aimed at enhancing seismic risk assessment capabilities in the region.

FERMI: A Step Forward in Earthquake Source Modelling

GEM's FERMI, replacing SHERIFS, revolutionises seismic hazard models' sub-fault to multi-fault earthquake source construction. Enhanced with superior performance and customisability, FERMI employs OQ-Engine functions, ensuring compatibility. In 2023, significant progress included a comprehensive system for enumerating potential multi-fault ruptures from a network, employing graph theory algorithms, while implementing filtering mechanisms based on plausibility for larger models. This breakthrough promises robust seismic modelling capabilities.