OpenQuake engine input model to perform hazard calculations for the Pacific Ocean Products Pacific Ocean Hazard OpenQuake engine input model to perform hazard calculations for the Pacific Ocean Share Facebook LinkedIn Description The v2024 Pacific Ocean hazard model has been developed by GEM within the USAID funded FORCE project. How to cite this work K. Bayliss, C. Brooks, M. Villani, K. Johnson, R. Styron, M. Pagani (2026). PSHA input model documentation for Pacific Ocean (OPA-2024-1.0). GEM Foundation. Available Versions The latest version (v2024.1.0) is available for direct download under a CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license. Users interested in this version can click the "Open Version Download" button in the right panel to access the information. If your use case does not comply with the license terms, a license can be requested by clicking on the "License Request", where a specific agreement will be provided, depending on the use case. License information The open version is available under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license, which requires: Attribution (you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made) Non-commercial (you may not use the material for commercial purposes) ShareAlike (derivatives created must be made available under the same license as the original) Any deviation from these terms incur in license infringement. For commercial use of the model, a specific license agreement must be made tailored to your use case, in such instance please click on "License Request". Facebook LinkedIn Share Latest Version v2024.1.0 License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 Available resources Open Version Download Documentation License Request text Map View Search Popup title Close Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Preview Preview is not available. Related products Atlantic Ocean Hazard Indian Ocean Hazard Global Seismic Risk Map Country-Territory Seismic Risk Profiles Global Liquefaction Hazard Model Builder's Toolkit (oq-mbtk) Global Seismic Hazard Map Global Seismic Embodied Carbon Risk Global Exposure Model Global Vulnerability Model Related publications For downloading or accessing detailed product information like PNG/PDF maps, datasets, license request, shapefiles and more, please switch to a desktop or laptop computer. Thank you for your understanding.

News GEM presents the results of the USAID-funded CCARA Project in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic By: Apr 26, 2018 Share Facebook LinkedIn Engineering professionals, stakeholders and risk managers from North, Central, and South America, Europe, Japan and the Caribbean gathered in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic to discuss seismic hazard, vulnerability and risk in Central America and the Caribbean from 19th - 22nd March 2018. A delegation from the GEM Foundation joined representatives from Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (MARN), CEPREDENAC, Office of Disaster Preparedness & Emergency Management (ODPEM), OYO Corporation, 100 Resilient Cities, UNDP, the World Bank, SURAMERICANA, USAID and other stakeholders from about 10 countries for the final project meeting to present the results of the CCARA project and for the “Trabajando juntos para evaluar el riesgo sísmico en Centro América y el Caribe” international symposium. Both events were sponsored by USAID and hosted by ONESVIE. The first three days focused on the presentation of the results from the CCARA project with the following topics: methodology, models, and results for the Dominican Republic with the objective of transferring the knowledge gained during the project and to receive feedback from local experts (Day 1); a full day workshop to present the OpenQuake engine (OQ) using the models developed in the CCARA project as well as discussing future possibilities of collaboration (Day 2); anda public presentation of an overview of the regional model developed within the project and how it can be used for risk management planning participated by more than 120 people (Day 3). After running some calculation exercises in OQ for earthquake scenarios and probabilistic losses, most of the engineers - introduced for the first time to seismic vulnerability and risk - expressed interest in demonstrating the value of assessing risk in their respective countries (e.g. Jamaica, Costa Rica, Panama). The fourth and final day was devoted to the international symposium on Earthquake Risk Assessment and Reduction in Central America and the Caribbean with the objective of better understanding how to tackle present and future challenges in seismic risk management. "The international symposium provided a venue for us [the participants] to identify and analyze together several aspects that could contribute to the improvement of how we should tackle present and future challenges on seismic hazard and risk," Catalina Yepes, seismic risk expert, GEM Foundation. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications A hybrid ML-physical modelling approach for efficient approximation of tsunami waves at the coast for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2022 | Peer-reviewed This work investigates a novel approach combining numerical modelling and machine learning, aimed at developing an efficient procedure that can be used for large scale tsunami hazard and risk studies. Probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment are vital tools to understand the risk of tsunami and mitigate its impact, guiding the risk reduction and transfer activities. Such large-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment require many numerically intensive simulations of the possible tsunami events, involving the tsunami phases of generation, wave propagation and inundation on the coast, which are not always feasible without large computational resources like HPCs. In order to undertake such regional PTHA for a larger proportion of the coast, we need to develop concepts and algorithms for reducing the number of events simulated and more rapidly approximate the simulation results needed. This case study for a coastal region of Japan utilizes a limited number of tsunami simulations from submarine earthquakes along the subduction interface to generate a wave propagation database at different depths, and fits these simulation results to a machine learning model to predict the water depth or velocity of the tsunami wave at the coast. Such a hybrid ML-physical model can be further coupled with an inundation scheme to compute the probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk for the onshore region.

Publications Beyond Button Pushing report Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2017 | Report According to the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, the likelihood of magnitude 6.7 and larger earthquakes occurring somewhere in California in the next 30 years is near certainty. Given the high level of earthquake risk in California, it is crucial to develop policies for risk mitigation, emergency preparedness, risk transfer and insurance, and buildings and infrastructure design that are informed by the best available science on earthquakes. Consequently, there is a need for improved understanding of the seismic risk in the State, including a better characterization of elements that comprise the risk: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.

Publications Can we test for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude? Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2014 | Peer-reviewed We explore the concept of maximum possible earthquake magnitude, M, in a region represented by an earthquake catalog from the viewpoint of statistical testing. For this aim, we assume that earthquake magnitudes are independent events that follow a doubly truncated Gutenberg‐Richter distribution and focus on the upper truncation M. In earlier work, it has been shown that the value of M cannot be well constrained from earthquake catalogs alone. However, for two hypothesized values M and M′, alternative statistical tests may address the question: Which value is more consistent with the data? In other words, is it possible to reject a magnitude within reasonable errors, i.e., the error of the first and the error of the second kind? The results for realistic settings indicate that either the error of the first kind or the error of the second kind is intolerably large. We conclude that it is essentially impossible to infer M in terms of alternative testing with sufficient confidence from an earthquake catalog alone, even in regions like Japan with excellent data availability. These findings are also valid for frequency‐magnitude distributions with different tail behavior, e.g., exponential tapering. Finally, we emphasize that different data may only be useful to provide additional constraints for M, if they do not correlate with the earthquake catalog, i.e., if they have not been recorded in the same observational period. In particular, long‐term geological assessments might be suitable to reduce the errors, while GPS measurements provide overall the same information as the catalogs.

News GEM 12-year anniversary: Bridging science and risk reduction By: Mar 26, 2021 Share Facebook LinkedIn “A dozen years is another milestone for GEM, and particularly poignant after over one year of the coronavirus pandemic. We much appreciate the continued support of our sponsors, collaborators and project partners, and the dedication and commitment of our staff to get us to where we are today, and ready to deliver our mandate in the next 12 years.” GEM Secretary General John Schneider on commemorating GEM’s 12-year anniversary. John added that the availability and access to data, information and tools continue to be fundamental problems in accurately assessing earthquake risk and taking action to reduce risk. “After 12 years, we are proud to have reached a time when GEM can say that harmonized, high quality, open data and open source assessment tools for earthquake hazard and risk are now widely available to the public.” Paul Henshaw, Director of Technology and Development agrees saying, “By overcoming these various challenges over the years, we can show how the evolution of OpenQuake engine and related toolkits has helped advance the science of risk assessment and support international collaboration to increase risk awareness and encourage risk mitigation activities around the world.” GEM’s contribution to disaster risk reduction Beyond the development of tools and databases, GEM’s biggest contribution to disaster risk reduction has been through the completion of the Global Earthquake Hazard and Risk Model through a collaboration with hundreds of local experts and dozens of organizations worldwide. Global maps were completed and released in 2018 and the underlying models were released to the public in 2019 and 2020. GEM also released a global set of earthquake vulnerability and resilience indicators in 2020. An earthquake risk model is comprised of three components: a hazard model that defines where, how often and how severely earthquakes will strike in the future; an exposure model that describes the elements at risk, particularly buildings/infrastructure and people; and vulnerability curves or models that describe the relationship between shaking intensity and damage or loss to elements at risk. GEM also develops socioeconomic vulnerability and resilience (SVR) indicators that are used to complement physical models of seismic risk. These indicators can be used to better understand drivers of risk and factors that may contribute to or hinder earthquake recovery. Marco Pagani, GEM Hazard Team Coordinator, explains how GEM’s Global Earthquake Hazard model,completed in 2018, is being used to help improve resilience to earthquakes. “Overall, this compilation of models provides a summary of the best science currently applied to the assessment of seismic hazard across the world at national and regional levels. Many of the models contained in this collection are already used to update building codes and compute risk at national level. The regulation of building construction through building codes is perhaps the most fundamental mechanism for reducing earthquake risk.” Vitor Silva, GEM Risk Team Coordinator, says "It took the GEM team many years to put together all the components to build a Global Earthquake Risk model. Now building vulnerability models are available for more than 600 building types, and exposure information covers residential, commercial and industrial buildings worldwide. On our 12th year, we are happy to have made all of this information available publicly to support decision-makers in assessing earthquake risk and devising strategies for effective risk mitigation. What’s Next In the next one-three years, GEM will be working to make its models and tools more accessible to the insurance and engineering sectors and DRR community more broadly, and to incorporate secondary perils (landslide, liquefaction, and tsunami) and cascading risks into its models. For instance, GEM has begun working on a new Risk Explorer tool which aims to make risk information more accessible to downstream users for risk reduction decision making and is integrating its risk models into financial loss models for insurance applications through third party platforms. Looking ahead to the next dozen years, John explained that “While GEM will continue to focus on the development of models and tools for earthquake risk assessment, and on their application through public and private partnerships at global, regional, national, and local levels, GEM will also evolve and extend its reach through increased collaboration on multi-hazard risk assessment, particularly for climate change risk assessment and adaptation.” 12-year anniversary infographics and media cards 12 key moments in GEM's history . John Schneider on the future work of GEM . Mauro Dolce on the GEM significant contribution to the development and application of earthquake science . Rui Pinho on GEM's role in bridging the gap between science and risk reduction . Anselm Smolka on GEM's collaborative and inclusive approach . No images found. GALLERY 1/10 Gallery VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

An OpenQuake Engine-Based Rupture Matching Algorithm and Scenarios Database Products Global EarthquakE ScEnarios (GEESE) An OpenQuake Engine-Based Rupture Matching Algorithm and Scenarios Database Share Facebook LinkedIn Description When evaluating the seismic hazard within a region or site of interest (e.g., a densely populated city or a nuclear power plant), it is essential to realistically model the characteristics (size, geometry and surface orientation) of large earthquake ruptures that may occur. The GEESE algorithm retrieves sufficiently representative ruptures for queried earthquakes from seismic hazard models developed within the OpenQuake Engine seismic hazard software. We used the GEESE algorithm to retrieve finite ruptures for the strongest events included in the global-coverage ISC-GEM earthquake catalogue (covering a time window of 1904 to 2019), which we present here as the GEESE database. For each event to which a rupture could be retrieved, the database also included the inputs for an OpenQuake Hazard Scenario calculation and the ground-motion fields (GMFs) computed using some (reconfigurable) default parameters. How to cite this work If you use this work, please cite both the publication and the data. Publication: Brooks, C., Pagani, M., Villani, M., Johnson, K., Styron, R., & Bayliss, K. (2025). Global EarthquakE ScEnarios (GEESE): An OpenQuake Engine-Based Rupture Matching Algorithm and Scenarios Database for Seismic Source Model Testing and Rapid Post-Event Response Analysis. Seismica, 4(2). https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v4i2.1654 Data: Brooks, C., Pagani, M., Villani, M., Johnson, K., Styron, R., & Bayliss, K. (2025). Global EarthquakE ScEnarios (GEESE): An OpenQuake Engine-Based Rupture Matching Algorithm and Scenarios Database [Data set]. In Seismica (Vol. 4, Number 2). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14981706 Available Versions The latest version (v2025) is available for direct download under a CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license. Users interested in this version can click the "Open Version Download" button in the right panel to access the information. If your use case does not comply with the license terms, a license can be requested by clicking on the "License Request", where a specific agreement will be provided, depending on the use case. License information The open version is available under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license, which requires: Attribution (you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made) Non-commercial (you may not use the material for commercial purposes) ShareAlike (derivatives created must be made available under the same license as the original) Any deviation from these terms incur in license infringement. For commercial use of the model, a specific license agreement must be made tailored to your use case, in such instance please click on "License Request". Facebook LinkedIn Share Latest Version v2025 License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 Available resources Open Version Download License Request text Map View Search Popup title Close Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Country/Region Available Resources Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Exposure Africa Exposure Alaska Exposure Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Vulnerability Africa Vulnerability Alaska Vulnerability Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Afghanistan Risk Profile Africa Risk Profile Alaska Risk Profile Preview Preview is not available. Related products Global Earthquake Impact Database (GEID) Related publications For downloading or accessing detailed product information like PNG/PDF maps, datasets, license request, shapefiles and more, please switch to a desktop or laptop computer. Thank you for your understanding.

OpenQuake Engine certified user page This is to certify that Alexander Koelzer has successfully completed the requirements to become a Certified OpenQuake Engine User for Scenario Assessment demonstrating the required knowledge and skills as assessed by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation. GEM Foundation Secretary General Helen Crowley (signed) Date of Completion: Valid until: September 12, 2025 September 11, 2028

News Scientific Symposium Unveils Albania's Updated National Seismic Hazard Model By: Jul 25, 2024 Jul 25, 2024 Share Facebook LinkedIn Tirana, Albania - July 16, 2024 . The Seismology Department of the Institute of Geosciences at the Polytechnic University of Albania recently hosted a scientific symposium at the Tirana International Hotel to present the updated National Seismic Hazard Model of Albania for 2024. This event marks a significant milestone in Albania's efforts to enhance earthquake resilience and modernise its seismic hazard assessments. The updated model results from a collaborative effort between the Institute of Geosciences (IGEO) and the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, developed over a year with funding from the Central European Initiative ( https://www.cei.int/ ) and the Albanian Electricity Corporation ( https://kesh.al/en/ ). The project involved technical workshops aimed at refining Albania’s probabilistic seismic hazard model, held in Pavia, Italy. "We provided support to IGEO in their effort to update their national seismic hazard model. Overall the collaboration was very positive. The new model developed is an important milestone in Albania’s effort to update their national building code. We are very proud of this collaboration, the possibility of contributing to enhance Albania’s resilience to earthquakes and grateful to the organisations that provided support to this initiative." – Marco Pagani, Head of Seismic Hazards, GEM. The event brought together experts and stakeholders from academia, and government agencies including members from the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation Hazard Team (Marco Pagani and Kirsty Bayliss, Seismic Hazard Scientist), to present and discuss the new model. Anila Xhahysa, Structural Engineer and Head of the Seismology Department at IGEO, led the presentation covering key topics: probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and the OpenQuake Engine; updated datasets for seismic hazard evaluation; ground motion characterisation; new methodologies incorporated into the hazard update; and the resulting assessment. Marco Pagani presented on "Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and the OpenQuake Engine," detailing the methodologies and software used in the model update. GEM also presented on “Seismic Risk: Needs, Datasets, Platform, and Future Perspectives,” offering a comprehensive overview of the challenges and opportunities in seismic risk assessment. The collaboration between GEM and IGEO has been essential in enhancing Albania’s seismic hazard modeling capabilities. By leveraging GEM’s advanced methodologies and tools, particularly the OpenQuake Engine, IGEO has enhanced its ability to independently create, update, and refine seismic hazard models. This partnership supports the adoption of Eurocode 8 standards, promoting earthquake-resistant construction practices. The updated seismic hazard model is expected to improve public and private sector strategies for seismic risk reduction, enhance emergency response planning, and contribute to the modernisation of seismic hazard modeling in Albania. Anila Xhahysa expressed her optimism that this project will serve as a model for other government agencies in Albania, encouraging a move towards more open and robust hazard modeling frameworks. "This project marks a transformative step in Albania’s seismic hazard modelling. The collaboration with GEM has encouraged us to move towards more open and robust hazard modeling frameworks, ensuring better earthquake preparedness and resilience. We hope this experience serves as a blueprint for future government initiatives in disaster risk resilience and other sectors." - Anila Xhahysa, Structural Engineer and Head of the Seismology Department at IGEO. The event concluded with a vision of continued collaboration and development of future seismic risk models to further strengthen Albania’s resilience against earthquakes. Related Content ALBANIA HAZARD MODELLING - Joint development of the Albanian seismic hazard model project page ( https://www.globalquakemodel.org/proj/albania-hazard-modelling ) Albania’s Institute of Geosciences (IGEO) and GEM collaborate to update the national seismic hazard model ( https://www.globalquakemodel.org/GEMNews/albania-national-seismic-hazard-model-1stworkshop-jan-2023 ) No images found. GALLERY 1/16 Photo credit: IGEO-Albania VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications Sub-Saharan Africa Geodetic Strain Rate Model 1.0 Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2015 | Report InthisreportwedescribetheSub-SaharanAfricaGeodeticStrainRateModel1.0,whichisacontributionto theGlobalEarthquakeModelFoundation(GEM)StrainRateProject.Theobjectiveofthisworkistoimprove the latest GEM geodetic strain rate model with an updated strain rate field of sub-Saharan Africa. SubSaharan Africa encompasses the East African Rift System (EARS), the active divergent plate boundary between the Nubian and Somalian plates, which accommodates strain along the boundaries of at least 3 microplates.ThecurrentversionoftheGEMgeodeticstrainratemodelisconstrainedbypublishedgeodetic data along the EARS and includes microplates between the Nubian and Somalian plates. In this work we developedan improved strain rate field for sub-Saharan Africa that incorporates 1)anexpandedgeodetic velocity fieldwithin theNubia-Somaliaplatesystemandalong theEARS2) redefined regionsofdeforming zones guided by seismicity distribution, and 3) updated constraints on block rotations from the recent publicationofSariaetal.(2014).TheSub-SaharanAfricaGeodeticStrainRateModel1.0spanslongitudes22 to55.5andlatitudes-52to20with0.5°(longitude)by0.4°(latitude)spacing,whichincludespartorallofthe following platesand/or sub-plates: Somalia,Nubia, Rovuma, Lwandle, Victoria, Antarctica,and Arabia. For theseplates/sub-platesweassignrigidblockrotationsasboundaryconstraintsonthestrainratecalculation thatisdeterminedusingtheHainesandHoltmethodof fittingsplinestogeodeticdata foraninterpolated velocitygradienttensorfield.Wederivestrainrates,velocities,andvorticityratesfromthevelocitygradient tensorfield.FollowingtheworkofKreemeretal.2014fortheGEMgeodeticstrainratefieldwealsoprovide estimates of model uncertainties, velocities, vorticity, and strain rates in a Nubia-fixed reference frame relativetothelowermantlefora0.1°x0.1°mesh.