Publications Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the Dominican Republic Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2024 | Peer-reviewed The Dominican Republic experiences moderate to high seismic hazard mostly caused by oblique convergence at the Caribbean/North American plate boundary that manifests as subduction zones, less-pronounced subduction-like trenches with thrust faulting, long strike-slip faults parallel to the plate boundary, and onshore deformation. Historical earthquakes have damaged the Dominican Republic’s large cities and those in neighboring Haiti, once requiring relocation. Given this, the Dominican Republic joined the “Training and Communication for Earthquake Risk Assessment” (TREQ) project funded by the United States Agency for International Development, which aimed to increase earthquake risk assessment capacity in Latin American cities. The TREQ project was the basis for developing an openly available probabilistic seismic hazard model for the Dominican Republic. The input model was developed from two main datasets: a homogenized earthquake catalog and an active faults database that combines results of recent local projects with a global database. The seismic source characterization used these to constrain source geometries and occurrence rates for active shallow crustal earthquakes, subduction interfaces and subduction-like thrusts, and intraslab earthquakes. Shallow crustal earthquakes, including those on subduction-like thrusts, are modeled by smoothed seismicity and fault sources, the latter using pre-defined geometries that permit multi-fault ruptures. Seismicity on the Puerto Rico Trench subduction interface is modeled as a fault source, while intraslab sources use pre-defined gridded ruptures inside the intraslab volume. The source characterization applies epistemic uncertainties to modeling assumptions affecting occurrence rates and maximum magnitudes. The ground motion characterization used residual analyses from past regional projects as a basis, updating some components with more recent ground motion models. Computed hazard results reinforce those from recent studies in terms of geographical hazard patterns and levels. For 475-year return periods, peak ground acceleration (PGA) in Santiago de los Caballeros reaches 0.50 g, controlled by the Septentrional Fault, while all tectonic region types contribute to the PGA 0.31 g computed for Santo Domingo.

News GEM conducts OpenQuake Workshop of 2019 at IIT Gandhinagar, India By: Mar 25, 2019 Share Facebook LinkedIn OpenQuake workshop participants, IIT Gandhinagar, India About 20 individuals participated in GEM’s first OpenQuake Workshop of 2019. The event, organized and coordinated by the Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar (IITGN) professors Svetlana Brzev and Manish Kumar was held in Gandhinagar from 18-19 March 2019. Vitor Silva and Anirudh Rao of the GEM Risk Team presented the Global Earthquake Model and discussed the seismic hazard and risk assessment for India, which was developed jointly with the GEM team and members from IIT Bombay, IIT Madras, and IIT Gandhinagar. The model allows the estimation of losses due to earthquakes in India, considering the local construction practices. “Seismic risk associated with the Indian building stock is an important topic and we are pleased to support this important research initiative by hosting the workshop” said Prof. Sudhir K. Jain, earthquake engineer and IITGN Director. The workshop was covered by local online news media in Gujarati (gandhinagarsamachar.com) and English ( indiatimes.com ) . No images found. GALLERY 1/4 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News Building Resilience in the Himalayas: GEM at the International Symposium By: Apr 5, 2025 Jan 30, 2025 Share Facebook LinkedIn The International Symposium on Earthquake Risk Reduction in the Himalayan Region, held in Kathmandu on January 27-28, 2025, brought together experts, researchers, and policymakers to address seismic challenges in one of the world’s most earthquake-prone regions. The event, part of Nepal’s 27th Earthquake Safety Day, was organised by the Department of Urban Development and Building Construction (DUDBC), the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), Kirtipur Municipality, the University of Bristol, and the National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal (NSET). Representing the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, Vitor Silva, Head of Risk Engineering, participated in the thematic session on Novel Practices for Rapid Visual Inspection of Buildings, Seismic Strengthening, and Low-Cost Seismic Isolation. Vitor’s presentation showcased GEM’s advancements in seismic risk modelling and highlighted innovative approaches that can support disaster preparedness, especially in earthquake-prone areas like the Himalayas. One of the key topics discussed was the development of science-driven methodologies to enhance structural resilience. Vitor emphasised that combining risk modelling with practical applications can lead to more informed decision-making and cost-effective solutions. He shared insights on how GEM’s tools and data can be leveraged to improve earthquake safety, with a particular focus on low-cost seismic isolation techniques. During the symposium, participants had the opportunity to visit a seismically isolated school building in Kathmandu, a project that stands out for its use of a low-cost PVC–sand–PVC interface instead of conventional seismic isolators. This innovative approach moves seismic isolation from the structural to the geotechnical realm, making it more accessible for low-income countries. Reflecting on the visit, Vitor noted: “It’s not every day that you see plots, tables, and formulae turn into bricks, mortar, and concrete. Witnessing a practical application of seismic isolation that could save lives, especially in schools, was truly inspiring.” The event strengthened collaboration among practitioners and policymakers, reinforcing the importance of integrating science-based strategies into disaster risk reduction policies. GEM’s involvement underscores the foundation’s commitment to advancing earthquake resilience through practical solutions and regional cooperation. By bringing together global expertise and local innovation, the symposium marked a step forward in addressing the unique seismic risks faced by communities in the Himalayan region. As GEM continues to support such initiatives, it remains dedicated to building safer, more resilient environments through scientific collaboration and knowledge sharing. No images found. GALLERY 1/4 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications Estimating Road Disruptions in Urban Contexts Due to Earthquakes Using Machine Learning Surrogates Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2025 | Peer-reviewed The estimation of road disruptions due to building debris in urban contexts requires the availability of exposure data at the building level, which is often not available. In this study, we explore how open global datasets at different scales can be integrated with machine learning algorithms to estimate road disruptions following seismic events, overcoming the need for detailed datasets. Using simulated impact data for the municipality of Lisbon, we train a Random Forest model to predict road disruptions due to building collapses. Then, we apply this model to another urban environment (the municipality of Amadora) to evaluate the performance of the model using input data unseen during the training process. Finally, we employ the surrogate model using information extracted from globally available datasets characterizing the built environment and the road network. The proposed approach allows identifying areas within urban centers where road disruptions are likely to occur, and where risk reduction measures should be prioritized to minimize the impact of destructive earthquakes.

News Deep Learning Speeds Up Building Classification for Seismic Risk Assessment By: Oct 7, 2025 Aug 1, 2025 Share Facebook LinkedIn Time-consuming building surveys may soon be replaced by automation, as shown in research led by Daniel Gomez, GEM Collaborator/ Exposure Analyst, on deep learning for exposure assessment. The study introduces an automated method for identifying building typologies, reducing the time and cost of creating building inventories for seismic risk assessment. Automating a Manual Process Traditionally, compiling detailed building stock data for seismic exposure assessments has relied on in-person surveys, a process that is both expensive and time-consuming. Virtual inspections through online imagery have provided some relief but continue to require considerable manual input. The paper, Automating building typology identification for seismic risk assessment using deep learning, recognised as Editor’s Choice in the August 2025 issue of Earthquake Spectra, the journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), proposes a novel solution by applying computer vision and deep learning techniques to images from Google Street View. The methodology extracts and classifies building features such as number of storeys, structural system, and construction period (pre-code or code). Methodology and Accuracy The approach employs a convolutional neural network model enhanced with pre-processing techniques. An object detector isolates building façades while a keypoint model and homography transformation correct perspective distortions, allowing the system to perform reliably even with limited data sets. This process enables more precise classification than previous approaches, which often grouped buildings into broad categories. The study achieved an accuracy of 88% for identifying structural systems, 78% for the number of storeys, and 69% for construction period determination. These outputs were integrated into a probabilistic distribution model of building taxonomy, which can then be used to estimate seismic vulnerability. Implications for Risk Reduction By automating the creation of building inventories, the study addresses one of the biggest challenges in regional seismic exposure modelling – the need for reliable, detailed data at scale. The results pave the way for faster and more cost-effective seismic risk modelling in rapidly urbanising areas where large-scale in-person inspections are not feasible. The research demonstrates how advances in artificial intelligence can strengthen the field of disaster risk reduction by providing scalable, transparent, and globally applicable tools. Its open and adaptable methodology supports broader efforts to improve seismic exposure and risk models worldwide. Link to the study: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/87552930251327435 No images found. GALLERY dgomez building class ai study.jpeg dgomez building class ai study.jpeg 1/1 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News GEM-USGS Project to Enhance Earthquake Load Assessments Worldwide By: Sep 29, 2023 Share Facebook LinkedIn In a significant collaborative effort between the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (GEM) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), funded by the U.S. Department of State (DoS) and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), the ASCE Earthquake Loads Overseas (AELO) project is making steady progress in providing updated global assessments of seismic actions for design. The primary objective of the project is to create a web service capable of calculating design ground motions, both on rock and soil, in adherence to the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) guidelines. These guidelines include ASCE 7-16, ASCE 41-17, ASCE 7-22, and ASCE 41-23. This web service heavily relies on the hazard models that are part of GEM’s global mosaic and the OpenQuake Engine. The project's planned activities span four years and include various critical components: Calculation of design values for peak ground acceleration (PGA), Ss, and S1 under rock site conditions, in accordance with ASCE 7-16 and ASCE 41-17. Development of a web service for computing design ground motions based on ASCE 7-16 and ASCE 41-17. Computation of ground motions for soil conditions across the entire spectrum, following ASCE 7-22 and ASCE 41-23, for the same 500 global locations. Development of web service for computing design ground motions based on ASCE 7-22 and ASCE 41-23. The project's accomplishments to date include the calculation of a set of Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) ground motions for around 500 global sites. To achieve these results, several updates and improvements were made to the GEM global seismic hazard mosaic, particularly regarding the definition of the ground-motion characterization (GMC) and the homogenisation of models (e.g. definition of the minimum magnitude). In the first half of 2023, the project focused on developing an Application Programming Interface (API) for end-to-end calculations. This API facilitates the retrieval of probabilistic and deterministic hazard results, as well as governing ground-motion values, based on site coordinates. While the emphasis has been on the probabilistic aspect, progress is already evident in the later stages of the assessment. With a joint effort from the USGS and GEM IT and hazard teams, the project continues to evaluate its results by comparing them with site-specific reports where significant differences are noted. This diligent approach ensures the accuracy and reliability of the earthquake load assessments. Future work will encompass a broader spectrum of soil conditions, aligning with the updated ASCE7-22 and ASCE41-23 guidelines. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News GEM's Vision for a Resilient Future: Insights from Helen Crowley, GEM’s new Secretary General By: Jul 31, 2023 Share Facebook LinkedIn In an interview with Helen Crowley, the new Secretary General of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, we delve into the organisation's ambitious vision for a world that is resilient not just to earthquakes, but to all natural hazards . The new leader shares insightful perspectives on GEM's potential to make a difference, expand its impact, foster partnerships, and promote sustainable disaster risk reduction. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTowjU0wCGw Going Beyond Ground Shaking Hazard: Embracing a Multi-Hazard Approach GEM aims to widen its scope by collaborating with other communities focusing on earthquake-related hazards such as landslides, tsunamis, and liquefaction. The goal is to integrate these hazards into the global hazard and risk models, ensuring a comprehensive assessment of natural threats. Enhancing Data Sets for Holistic Risk Assessment Addressing the needs of various natural hazards communities, Helen emphasises the importance of developing a hazard-agnostic exposure model at a global level. This versatile exposure model would cater to different hazards, like floods, and utilise attributes and resolutions necessary for accurate risk evaluation. Helen believes that leveraging artificial intelligence and crowdsourcing could play a pivotal role in this endeavour. Building a Collaborative Ecosystem: Strengthening International Partnerships Collaboration and partnerships are the bedrock of scientific advancements. Helen emphasises the need for GEM to play a central role in uniting the global natural hazards community. By fostering international collaborations, GEM can amplify its impact on disaster risk reduction and sustainable development. Leading the Way: GEM and the World Conference on Earthquake Engineering With Milan set to host the next World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, GEM's participation will be instrumental. GEM will organise technical sessions, showcasing its work and contributions: highlighting the importance of furthering earthquake engineering through scientific discussions, knowledge, and experience sharing among the GEM community. Beyond Models: Implementing Risk Reduction Strategies "GEM's journey does not end with the release of seismic hazard and risk models. It's essential to transform these models into practical applications for disaster risk reduction. Collaborating with partners like the USGS, GEM already initiates efforts to define seismic actions for global design. Additionally, by assessing the risk using vulnerability models for retrofitted buildings, we can demonstrate cost-effective disaster reduction strategies." - Helen Crowley, GEM Secretary General Unveiling the Environmental Impact: Sustainable Development through Retrofitting Helen further sheds light on GEM's plans to explore the environmental impact of earthquakes. By assessing emissions caused by post-earthquake reconstruction, GEM aims to promote sustainable development. Leveraging its models, the organisation will advocate for retrofitting using sustainable methods to achieve a reduction in global greenhouse emissions. The new GEM Secretary General's vision reveals a multifaceted strategy, focused on embracing a multi-hazard approach, strengthening partnerships, and ensuring the practical application of GEM's models for sustainable disaster risk reduction. By venturing beyond conventional boundaries, GEM endeavours to create a resilient world for all natural hazards. No images found. GALLERY DSC05101.jpg DSC05105.jpg IMG_8418.jpg DSC05101.jpg 1/10 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

News Integrating Science and Society: EPOS ON Project Kick-Off By: Oct 9, 2024 Sep 1, 2024 Share Facebook LinkedIn The European Plate Observing System-Optimisation and EvolutioN (EPOS ON) project , a collaborative initiative involving a consortium of 34 partners across 18 countries, kicked off on September 1, 2024, and is set to run for 36 months, concluding on August 31, 2027. Coordinated by EPOS ERIC , the project aims to support the optimisation and evolution of the EPOS Research Infrastructure (EPOS RI) by enhancing the interoperability, accessibility, and integration of various datasets for effective risk management and resilience against natural hazards. With funding support from the European Union (EU) under the Horizon Europe program, this collaborative project will be implemented across various geographic locations within Europe and may extend its partnerships to other regions globally, bringing together diverse expertise and resources to strengthen EPOS RI. Key outputs expected from EPOS ON project work packages (WP) include: WP2 Enhancing Services for Science - Integration of new services from various communities into the EPOS Data Portal , along with a framework to guide engagement with new research communities and enhanced FAIR (i.e. Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) principles for research. WP3 Contribution to Tackle Societal Challenges - Enhancement of existing EPOS services for improved risk management for natural hazards, supported by dialogue with the EU Union Civil Protection Knowledge Network (UCPKN). WP4 Strengthening Impact Through User Engagement - Implementation of the EPOS User Strategy to enhance engagement and training, complemented by targeted training materials for early-career researchers. WP5 Enlarging European and International Collaborations - Establishment of collaborative partnerships with relevant research infrastructures to promote synergies and expand global access to EPOS services and data. To achieve these outputs, a robust management framework will be developed to ensure effective coordination, communication, and monitoring of project activities across all work packages (WP1), along with the establishment of an evaluation and dissemination strategy to assess project impacts and share results with stakeholders and the wider scientific community (WP6). GEM's specific contributions to the project through WP3 include scientific products that support risk management: Data products and services for rapid post-event assessment: this includes the improvement of existing tools (e.g., European ShakeMap service) for rapid post-event assessment of earthquake impacts and associated secondary hazards (e.g. liquefaction), tools to predict population dynamics in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, and databases of damage-dependent seismic vulnerability models for European buildings. Support for the expansion of the existing European seismic risk services to include maps representing the environmental impact associated with earthquakes in terms of equivalent carbon dioxide (eCO2) emissions arising from damage and subsequent repair activities. In Work Package 5 (WP5), GEM will collaborate with EPOS in its mission to strengthen international partnerships, expanding the global reach and effectiveness of its data and services for a wide range of public and private stakeholders. “GEM is looking forward to working more closely with EPOS through this project, both to provide services and data that support earthquake risk assessment and mitigation, and to provide a strong connection between EPOS and GEM’s global public-private partnership” – Helen Crowley, GEM Secretary General. ## No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Back to Bangladesh Outcomes Bangladesh Infrastructure Exposure In addition to residential, industrial, and commercial structures that were previously covered by GEM’s exposure models at the zila level (which have been updated to the upazila level during this project), we have also developed exposure models for the healthcare and educational facilities at the country, including all hospitals and clinics, and all schools, colleges, and universities. Map | Profile

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