News Fault2SHA Learning Series: Modelling Earthquake Clustering By: Jun 6, 2022 Share Facebook LinkedIn On May 9th, at the Fault2SHA Learning Series: Modelling Earthquake Clustering. (watch the recording ), Marco Pagani presented recent improvements to the OpenQuake Engine that enhance its capability to compute seismic hazard using fault sources. Under the category of parametric sources, Marco presented the OpenQuake engine’s 1) new fault typologies: the kite fault source and multi-fault source recently added to the engine to better support models describing ruptures occurring on an unsegmented fault system, as in the case of the ; and 2) and a set of new epistemic uncertainties for a segmented fault source where Marco briefly introduced and described aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty. In the last part of his presentation, Marco discussed the various options to define non-parametric fault sources in the OpenQuake engine, such as the possibility to define a list of probabilistic earthquake ruptures. He then proceeded to demonstrate some examples of using non-parametric sources to compute seismic hazard at a particular site using the OpenQuake engine. The OpenQuake (OQ) Engine, first developed in 2010 is the open-source seismic hazard and risk calculation engine developed by the GEM Foundation in collaboration with a global community of hazard and risk modellers (see ). The online started in January 2021 and is held every second Monday of each month. The purpose of this series is to facilitate collaborations across different disciplines by organising sessions on topics relating to utilising fault data in seismic hazard assessments or hands-on exercises on relevant open-access tools. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 Gallery VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications Investment in Disaster Risk Management in Europe Makes Economic Sense Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2021 | Report The physical, financial, and social impacts of disasters in Europe are growing and will continue to grow unless urgent actions are taken. In the European Union (EU), during the period from 1980 to 2020, natural disasters affected nearly 50 million people and caused on average an economic loss of roughly €12 billion per year (EEA, 2020). The impacts of flood, wildfire, and extreme heat are increasing rapidly, and climate damages could reach €170 billion per year according to conservative estimates for a 3 scenario unless urgent action is taken now (Szewczyk, et al., 2020). Earthquakes, while rare, have a devastating impact on the ageing buildings and infrastructure of Europe that were constructed prior to modern codes; in Bucharest, for example, nearly 90% of the population lives in multifamily buildings with pre-modern building codes3 (Simpson & Markhvida, 2020). Within the EU, the top-five countries with the highest annual average loss to earthquake are Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia, and for floods the top-five countries are Romania, Slovenia, Latvia, Bulgaria, and Austria.4 However, disasters do not affect everyone equally: poor, elderly, very young, and marginalized populations are most affected and least able to recover. In Romania, Greece, Croatia, and Bulgaria, for example, the socio-economic resilience of the poor is on average less than 30% of the national average (World Bank, 2020). Moreover, the local and regional administrations in the poorer and more disadvantaged areas have the least capacity to design and implement resilience investments.

Publications Ranking and developing ground-motion models for Southeastern Africa Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2024 | Peer-reviewed The southern East African Rift System (EARS) is an early-stage continental rift with a deep seismogenic zone. It is associated with a low-to-moderate seismic hazard, but due to its short and sparse instrumental record, there is a lack of ground-motion studies in the region. Instead, seismic hazard assessments have commonly relied on a combination of active crustal and stable continental ground-motion models (GMMs) from other regions without accounting for the unusual geological setting of this region and evaluating their suitability. Here, we use a newly compiled southern EARS ground-motion database to compare six active crustal GMMs and four stable continental GMMs. We find that the active crustal GMMs tend to underestimate the ground-motion intensities observed, while the stable continental GMMs overestimate them. This is particularly pronounced in the high-frequency intensity measures (>5 Hz). We also use the referenced empirical approach and develop a new region-specific GMM for southern EARS. Both the ranked GMMs and our new GMM result in large residual variabilities, highlighting the need for local geotechnical information to better constrain site conditions.

News FORCE Progress Update: Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk By: Sep 29, 2023 Share Facebook LinkedIn The Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE) project , supported by USAID and implemented by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, continues to make significant headway in its mission to enhance seismic risk understanding. One critical component of this project involves predicting urban growth and population evolution. This involves analysing more than 20 potential drivers of urban development over several decades. These encompass factors such as demographic trends, economic metrics, and land-use patterns. The FORCE team is actively developing urban growth models utilising techniques like regression analysis and machine learning. Currently, these models are undergoing meticulous evaluation to ensure their ability to replicate observed increases in dwelling numbers and construction areas. As these models grow in accuracy, they will be instrumental in forecasting housing and construction trends up to the year 2050. This forward-looking approach is pivotal not only for anticipating seismic risks but also for shaping long-term risk mitigation strategies. Simultaneously, FORCE is partnering closely with country-specific groups in Nepal, El Salvador, and Bhutan to refine the required input models, such as exposure and vulnerability, which serve as foundational references for estimating seismic risks and are being fortified with local data and insights. The recent earthquake scenarios in these countries provide essential benchmarks for seismic risk assessments. In another project component, FORCE has introduced customized training sessions on earthquake hazard and risk assessment using the OpenQuake training platform. The response has been overwhelming, with 108 registrations from 33 countries for the 2023 spring course. These efforts focus on engaging participants from seismic-prone regions, especially in Asia and Oceania, underlining the project's commitment to bolstering global seismic resilience. In line with this, the GEM team will be in El Salvador from November 4-11. Collaborating closely with key partners, including the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) and the University of El Salvador, we will engage in crucial meetings and workshops. The FORCE project is a testament to GEM's dedication to advancing earthquake risk assessment and preparedness worldwide. Each milestone achieved brings us closer to a safer, more resilient world in the face of seismic challenges. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications A relocated earthquake catalog and ground motion database for the southern East African rift system Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2023 | Peer-reviewed The southern East African rift system (EARS) is geologically rare considering its early-stage continental rift setting combined with a deep seismogenic zone. Several seismically vulnerable communities are located within this tectonically active region, resulting in a significant seismic risk. However, the ground motion and seismic hazard analyzes necessary to increase the earthquake preparedness in the region have been limited due to the relatively short instrumentation history and scarce ground motion data available. Here, we present a newly compiled ground motion database for the southern EARS which is critically lacking and preventing local ground motion studies. This database includes a regional catalog of 882 earthquakes spanning 1994–2022 (magnitudes 3–6.5) with available waveform records within epicentral distances of 300 km. Three different velocity models were used to relocate 256, 255, and 252 events, respectively, to quantify depth sensitivity, relocating events down to depths of 35–40 km. The final database contains 10,725 time-series records from 353 stations along with P- and S-wave phase arrivals for each record. The ground motion database contains peak ground acceleration and velocity and 5% damped pseudo-spectral acceleration for 291 frequencies from 1.0 to 30 Hz for the horizontal components. In addition, a Fourier amplitude spectrum table for 212 frequencies from 0.1 to 30 Hz is included. The database is accessible through the ISC repository (https://doi.org/10.31905/4GGVBFBE).

News Resilience Dividend: Towards Sustainable and Inclusive Societies By: May 23, 2019 Share Facebook LinkedIn Ms. Mami Mizutori, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Disaster Risk Reduction. Photo credit: UNDRR Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction 2019 Geneva GEM and two thousand others from around the world participated in the sixth session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (GP2019) in Geneva, Switzerland from 13 to 17 May 2019. The event, convened and organized by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and hosted by the Government of Switzerland, featured Working Sessions, Side Events, Innovative Platform and IGNITE Stage where participants presented and discussed a wide range of topics in disaster risk reduction. Day 1 featured a high-level dialogue on global and regional progress, including outcomes from the regional platforms and a presentation and discussion on the state of global risk and future trends. The first day also featured a side event to announce the release of the Global Assessment Report 2019 (GAR2019) where Dr. Juan Pablo Sarmiento, Florida International University - Disaster Risk Reduction Program acknowledged GEM’s pioneering work on global risk assessment in his presentation. GEM’s global earthquake hazard and risk assessment work is featured in Chapter 3: Risk, especially in sections 3.1.1 Seismic and 3.2.1 Structural Exposure. Day 2 focused on risk-informed public and private investments, including investments in infrastructure and innovative investment modalities. A working session was also devoted to the launch of the Global Risk Assessment Framework (GRAF) where GEM is an active member and contributor. The last day focused on action on climate and disaster risk, including integrated national policies, strategies and planning, innovative financial and social instruments for climate and disaster risk reduction, including gender considerations. (source: https://www.preventionweb.net/files/58809_gpconceptnote.pdf ) “The Global Platform is an opportunity for us to come together to renew and accelerate our efforts to implement the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk reduction. Achieving its targets for reducing disaster losses is a challenge and an opportunity to make the world a safer and more resilient place for future generations.” - Ms. Mami Mizutori, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Disaster Risk Reduction. (source: https://www.unisdr.org/conference/2019/globalplatform/home ) The GEM Foundation released the Africa Earthquake Hazard and Risk model on 15th May in recognition of UNISDR’s Global Platform 2019 Conference in Geneva. The technical data and information for this model is now available on the Africa Model webpage . The Africa Earthquake model underpins the African portion of GEM’s global maps released in December 2018. No images found. GALLERY GPDRR2019 Theme Ms. Mami Mizutori, UNDRR Head GPDRR2019 Theme 1/2 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

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News GEM paper on Potential Impact of Earthquakes during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic By: Jul 26, 2020 Share Facebook LinkedIn Global Earthquake Hazard-COVID19 map The threat of an earthquake occurring during a pandemic is very real, and can pose a problematic management of COVID-19 cases and health emergencies. The occurrence of earthquakes coincident with the pandemic may prevent the effective practice of mitigating measures such as social distancing, that can consequently cause an increase in the virus spread. To better understand the link between COVID-19 and earthquakes, Vitor Silva and Nicole Paul conducted a study on the "Potential Impact of Earthquakes during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic". The paper discusses the potential for earthquakes to trigger or exacerbate infectious diseases, and models the additional mortality to COVID-19 that would be expected from earthquake scenarios in Portugal for various levels of infection. The methodology can easily be generalized to any earthquake/covid scenario and to a fully probabilistic analysis. To identify regions of high seismic and covid-19 combined risk, the study used recent data on the number of confirmed cases at the national or subnational level combined with a global seismic hazard and risk map to produce a combined index. This index highlights regions where preparedness and contingency plans should be developed to account for the possibility of COVID-19 outbreaks due to the earthquake impact. View the maps: and . Using Portugal as an example, the authors simulated the potential impacts of two scenario earthquakes near Lisbon that are typically used by government officials for contingency planning: A) a magnitude 5.7 earthquake located onshore beneath Lisbon; and B) a magnitude 8.7 earthquake located offshore, representing a repeat of the Great Lisbon Earthquake of 1755. For these two events, they estimated the population displaced from severely damaged and collapsed buildings. The increase in infection rate was then calculated from the inability to maintain social distance and other safeguards for displaced people who are placed in alternative shelters. Case A represents a relatively optimistic scenario in which the transmissibility slightly increases after the seismic event, and then decreases accordingly as counter measures are put in place in line with existing response capacity; and Case B represents a pessimistic scenario where the transmissibility would increase sharply after the seismic event as existing response capacity is exceeded. Accordingly, the results demonstrate a wide range in the potential for increased infection and mortality depending on the physical earthquake impact and the resulting displacement of population. According to the study, this indicates that stricter and more effective measures would have to be rapidly implemented in order to counter the spread of the infection. The study should be useful to national and local governments to prepare contingency plans for dealing with future risks that combine the impact of earthquakes, pandemics and other disasters that endanger human lives and displace people from their homes. This study is in press in and will be released in the coming weeks. No images found. GALLERY 1/2 Gallery VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications GEM1 Executive Summary Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2010 | Report The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a public/private partnership initiated and approved by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD-GSF). GEM aims to provide uniform, independent standards to calculate and communicate earthquake risk worldwide. With committed backing from academia, governments, and industry, GEM will contribute to improved modelling of earthquake risk worldwide. More information is available on the GEM website: www.globalquakemodel.org. As a first step in developing a global earthquake model, a focused pilot project named GEM1 was launched to generate GEM’s first products and develop GEM’s initial IT infrastructure. GEM1 formally started in January 2009 and ended on March 31st 2010, whilst ETH Zurich was appointed as the coordinator, with EUCENTRE (Italy), GFZ (Germany), NORSAR (Norway) and the USGS (USA) as contributing partners (and a number of other institutions and individuals, named in the companion reports, also provided models, data and feedback). The main objective of GEM1 was that it would provide a basis upon which the future development of the full GEM computing environment and product set could be built. The aim as spelled out in the GEM1 implementation plan was to largely use existing tools and datasets in hazard and risk, connected through a unified IT infrastructure. The GEM1 deliverables are therefore to be considered ‘proof-of-concept’ rather than final products, hence any resulting outputs should be conceived as conceptual only and are thus not suitable for application. This report briefly summarizes the achievements of GEM1.

Publications Defining a consistent strategy to model ground-motion parameters for the GEM-PEER Global GMPEs Project Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2012 | Peer-reviewed The project entitled Global Ground Motion Prediction Equations is funded by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and has the objective of recommending a harmonized suite of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that can be used at the global and regional scales for seismic hazard analysis and loss estimation studies. As part of this project, Task 1a experts were commissioned to make recommendations on the critical aspects of seismological predictor parameters that are used by predictive model developers to estimate ground motions for different earthquake scenarios. It is hoped that these recommendations would lead to the optimum description of ground-motion models that can be used efficiently for reliable seismic hazard assessment studies.