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The Sendai Framework proposes recording disaster losses from hazard events between 2015 and 2030 to monitor the progress towards reduction targets to curtail risk worldwide. In the case of earthquakes, relying on losses over 15 years is unlikely to yield sufficient evidence to support risk mitigation strategies. In this study we propose a general methodology to monitor and forecast Sendai indicators. We apply our approach to explore trajectories of probabilistic indicators of mortality (A1) and economic loss (C1) in the form of custom Sendai Indicators for the Dominican Republic. Risk reduction targets, at national and subnational level, are established and tested along with two mitigation strategies: nationwide retrofitting campaign and stronger code-enforcement. The baseline projection indicates that earthquake risk is expected to increase at a national level, with indicators A1 and C1 increasing over 17% and 27%, respectively, in a period of 35 years. At that scale, code enforcement is more effective in meeting the targets of reduced mortality by 2030 and 2050. At the sub-national level, results depend on the risk drivers in each municipality. We provide two cases: in Santiago de los Caballeros, the baseline risk projection suggests that indicators A1 and C1 will increase by more than 18% and 26% by 2050, respectively, while in Distrito Nacional they decrease by almost 5% and 3%, respectively. In the former region, code-enforcement is the most effective measure to meet the risk reduction targets, while for the latter it was found to be the retrofit campaign.