Share

As part of its role in the ARISTOTLE-ENHSP, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation provided rapid impact analyses to the European Research Coordination Centre following three recent earthquakes: the magnitude 8.8 earthquake in Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula on 29 July 2025, the magnitude 6.0 earthquake in Afghanistan’s Kunar and Nangarhar provinces on 31 August 2025, and the magnitude 6.9 earthquake in the Philippines’ Cebu province on 30 September 2025.

Assessing the Kamchatka Earthquake

The Kamchatka event was classified as a Red alert for economic losses by the USGS PAGER system, thus triggering GEM’s post-event protocol. GEM scientists used the global hazard and risk models in combination with USGS ShakeMap products to generate impact estimates. While the earthquake was very large, evidence suggested lower-than-expected ground shaking, underscoring the challenge of constrained data in remote regions. GEM’s analyses explored different assumptions for ground motion behaviour, providing ranges of possible impacts to inform ongoing evaluations.

Supporting Decision-Making in Afghanistan

The Afghan earthquake was also classified as a Red alert for fatalities by the USGS PAGER system. GEM used the epicentre from the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC), combined with a rupture generated using its Global EarthquakE ScEnarios (GEESE) algorithm and regional hazard models, to estimate the likely range of consequences.

Outputs shared with the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) supported satellite mapping operations. In one case, GEM’s estimates confirmed that the most affected areas had been correctly prioritised for imaging, despite damage being difficult to detect from satellite data. This provided responders with confidence in their initial assessments.

Delivering Rapid Analysis in the Philippines

For the 30 September earthquake in Cebu, GEM applied its oq-impact tool to generate impact estimates for fatalities, injuries, displaced population, economic losses, and building damage. Maps of expected building loss, fatalities, and homelessness were shared with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) to complement national monitoring efforts.

These analyses are based on the USGS rupture, GEM’s global ground motion models, and exposure and vulnerability models for the Philippines providing a first-order estimate of expected impacts while more detailed local data are being gathered.

Bridging Science and Response

Feedback from partners, including JRC, emphasised the value of GEM’s modelling in the immediate aftermath of earthquakes. By providing independent, model-based estimates, GEM helps humanitarian agencies and national authorities allocate resources more confidently, especially when on-the-ground information is scarce or satellite information is unreliable.

Towards Greater Collaboration

While GEM is not an operational emergency-response organisation, its role as an information provider helps humanitarian agencies, governments, and international partners respond more effectively to disasters. The recent events in Russia, Afghanistan and the Philippines highlight how scientific models can complement field data and satellite imagery in shaping rapid response.

GEM continues to encourage open collaboration and data sharing with partners worldwide, recognising that bridging the gap between science and action is essential for strengthening earthquake resilience – and disaster resilience more broadly – across the globe.

Contact us at info@globalquakemodel.org for inquiries or collaboration.