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Global Earthquake Model (GEM): Status, perspectives and use cases

John Schneider, Secretary General (GEM) presented an update on the development of GEM's global earthquake hazard and risk model and other applications during this year’s edition of the OASIS Conference: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly. The annual conference, which focuses on issues in catastrophe risk modelling for application to the insurance and risk financing sector, attracted over 200 participants from across public, private and academic institutions to the event held in London from September 13-14, 2018.

 

In particular, John’s presentation highlighted an overview of the Global Earthquake Model which will be completed and launched in December, and results of a pilot project to deploy a GEM risk model using the OASIS Loss Modelling Framework.

 

Paul Henshaw, GEM Director of Technology and Development who was also present at the conference, noted particular excitement among participants in GEM’s new models, with particular interest in GEM’s open and transparent approach in model development.

 

“The OASIS conference was an excellent forum for us to demonstrate not just GEM’s products but also how GEM is delivering information and products of value to the industry,” John said.

 

Joerg Steffensen, Hannover Re General Manager of Group Risk Management Modelling, and concurrent GEM Governing Board member presented a user's perspective on the application of GEM's OpenQuake tools and risk models. He highlighted that GEM’s full model transparency on data, assumptions and parameterizations perfectly meets the demand of new initiatives, markets and consumers of Hannover Re and is in line with expectations and interests of the industry.

 

Paul Della Marta, Head of Catastrophe Research, PartnerRe and GEM Governing Board Advisor, presented valuable perspectives on risk modelling transparency sensitivity analysis, in respective sessions. In addition, based on his conversations with many participants, Paul said “there is increasing interest in the cat risk community to work with, and support GEM and to use GEM’s models and tools to help inform their view of risk. We are looking forward to the pending completion of the global model in a few months time.”

 

The 2-day conference concluded with a panel discussion on the future of Cat modelling emphasizing the implications of technology for model developers and users, and how it will affect the way models are developed, calibrated and validated.

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