Publications Ranking and developing ground-motion models for Southeastern Africa Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2024 | Peer-reviewed The southern East African Rift System (EARS) is an early-stage continental rift with a deep seismogenic zone. It is associated with a low-to-moderate seismic hazard, but due to its short and sparse instrumental record, there is a lack of ground-motion studies in the region. Instead, seismic hazard assessments have commonly relied on a combination of active crustal and stable continental ground-motion models (GMMs) from other regions without accounting for the unusual geological setting of this region and evaluating their suitability. Here, we use a newly compiled southern EARS ground-motion database to compare six active crustal GMMs and four stable continental GMMs. We find that the active crustal GMMs tend to underestimate the ground-motion intensities observed, while the stable continental GMMs overestimate them. This is particularly pronounced in the high-frequency intensity measures (>5 Hz). We also use the referenced empirical approach and develop a new region-specific GMM for southern EARS. Both the ranked GMMs and our new GMM result in large residual variabilities, highlighting the need for local geotechnical information to better constrain site conditions.

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News GEM-USAID CCARA Hazard Assessment in San José de Costa Rica By: Jul 2, 2018 Share Facebook LinkedIn Some 16 scientists from Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Haiti, Nicaragua, Panama and Spain attended a hazard workshop in San José, Costa Rica from September 18th to 22nd as part of the risk assessment activities of the CCARA project (Assessing and Mitigating Earthquake Risk in the Caribbean and Central America). GEM, in collaboration with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) conducted the workshop while the Laboratorio Nacional de Materiales y Modelos Estructurales (LANAMME - http://www.lanamme.ucr.ac.cr/ ) - University of Costa Rica hosted the week-long event. GEM representatives - Julio García, Senior Hazard Scientist, and Marco Pagani, Hazard Coordinator - delivered the workshop in two parts: the first focused on the tools developed by GEM for the construction of seismic hazard models and for the calculation of hazard; while the second focused on the participants’ discussion on the current status of the datasets and hazard models developed in the context of the CCARA project. During the workshop, there was general agreement and appreciation among the participants for the intermediate results presented. However, despite significant progress, they also recognized that the work to be completed was still considerable. Dr. Rolando Castillo, (Coordinator - Programme of Structural Engineering, Lanamme, Universidad de Costa Rica) considered the workshop “a complete success”. He expressed satisfaction with the presentations by GEM scientists because they “provided [the participants] with useful information on seismic source definition and modelling; hazard catalogue and modeler’s toolkit; ground motion prediction equations; and ground motion toolkit and demos”. Dr. Douglas Hernández (Dirección General del Observatorio Ambiental. Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (MARN), El Salvador) shared the same observation saying after the workshop, “users learned how to evaluate each step of the hazard assessment process”. In general, participants demonstrated a strong interest to continue collaborating with GEM to reduce seismic risk and to improve the knowledge on this topic. Dr. Vladimir Jiménez (Structural and Geotechnical Engineer, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Dominican Republic) agreed and expressed the same enthusiasm to collaborate more with institutions with the aim of reducing earthquake risk in South America. On the last day of the workshop, a broad discussion on synergies between CCARA and national initiatives opened potential collaborations that could help in expanding the impact of the CCARA project beyond its completion date in March 2018. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications GEM 2009/2010 report 2nd edition Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2009 | Report The open source OpenQuake software for seismic hazard and risk assessment is already being used in various ways around the globe. Notwithstanding the fact that the current version of the software still is a ‘developer’ release, the code is stable and can already execute reliable hazard and risk calculations. That is the reason why the Instituto di Geofi sica of Ecuardor asked GEM to work together on developing the country's new seismic hazard maps, using OpenQuake. An example of preliminary maps produced so far is shown here. Furthermore, collaborations with the EMME and SHARE Regional Programmes have led to valuable lessons and improvements on both sides and produced results that will be used to visualise the work the Programmes carry out. Read more on the application of OpenQuake on page 28.

Publications Sub-Saharan Africa Geodetic Strain Rate Model 1.0 Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2015 | Report InthisreportwedescribetheSub-SaharanAfricaGeodeticStrainRateModel1.0,whichisacontributionto theGlobalEarthquakeModelFoundation(GEM)StrainRateProject.Theobjectiveofthisworkistoimprove the latest GEM geodetic strain rate model with an updated strain rate field of sub-Saharan Africa. SubSaharan Africa encompasses the East African Rift System (EARS), the active divergent plate boundary between the Nubian and Somalian plates, which accommodates strain along the boundaries of at least 3 microplates.ThecurrentversionoftheGEMgeodeticstrainratemodelisconstrainedbypublishedgeodetic data along the EARS and includes microplates between the Nubian and Somalian plates. In this work we developedan improved strain rate field for sub-Saharan Africa that incorporates 1)anexpandedgeodetic velocity fieldwithin theNubia-Somaliaplatesystemandalong theEARS2) redefined regionsofdeforming zones guided by seismicity distribution, and 3) updated constraints on block rotations from the recent publicationofSariaetal.(2014).TheSub-SaharanAfricaGeodeticStrainRateModel1.0spanslongitudes22 to55.5andlatitudes-52to20with0.5°(longitude)by0.4°(latitude)spacing,whichincludespartorallofthe following platesand/or sub-plates: Somalia,Nubia, Rovuma, Lwandle, Victoria, Antarctica,and Arabia. For theseplates/sub-platesweassignrigidblockrotationsasboundaryconstraintsonthestrainratecalculation thatisdeterminedusingtheHainesandHoltmethodof fittingsplinestogeodeticdata foraninterpolated velocitygradienttensorfield.Wederivestrainrates,velocities,andvorticityratesfromthevelocitygradient tensorfield.FollowingtheworkofKreemeretal.2014fortheGEMgeodeticstrainratefieldwealsoprovide estimates of model uncertainties, velocities, vorticity, and strain rates in a Nubia-fixed reference frame relativetothelowermantlefora0.1°x0.1°mesh.

News GEM reaching out in Addis Ababa By: Jul 2, 2018 Share Facebook LinkedIn Risk Coordinator Vitor Silva was invited to deliver a presentation on our work and participated in one of the panel sessions. Our team were very active in the many official forums, as well as promoting GEM through social media and face-to-face discussion with delegates at our display booth. In a standing-room-only interactive event led by Carlos Villacis, Chris Burton, and Vitor Silva, our work in Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa was enthusiastically attended, drawing the highest number of participants of all the sessions on the conference’s closing day. While in the Ethiopian capital, our new Fund-raiser, Chris Wardle and Socioeconomic-Vulnerabilities Coordinator Chris Burton met with senior staff from the USAID’s Regional Office, with Chris Burton’s overview of GEM being very well received. The GEM team were also able to establish a working relationship with the Fire Emergency Prevention and Rescue Agency (FEPRA), as one of the key building blocks for a city-level risk assessment for Addis Ababa, planned under our USAID-funded SSAHARA programme. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

Publications GEM: a Participatory Framework for Open, State-of-the-Art Models and Tools for Earthquake Risk Assessment Share Facebook LinkedIn Download 2012 | Peer-reviewed The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) initiative aims to develop a global model of earthquake risk as an open source, community-driven project. In order to begin this in a structured way, a number of global components that cover the scientific modules of the model were defined and international consortia were invited to bid and lead these their development. These consortia define standards and best practice related to the methodologies used in seismic hazard and risk assessment and in particular the collection and storage of data needed therein. This paper introduces these global components and describes an open source platform for risk assessment OpenQuake that is being developed to provide access to and interaction with the proposed data and tools.

News GEM releases a new earthquake loss model for China By: Apr 21, 2022 Share Facebook LinkedIn Pavia, Italy. 21 April 2022. Today GEM released its Earthquake Loss Model for China via Nasdaq Risk Modelling for Catastrophes and Verisk Touchstone platforms. The model is also available in its native OpenQuake format via GEM’s China Model product page . The China model has been developed by GEM using public sources of information, such as past seismicity, and geodetic and geologic data for the hazard component, combined with exposure and vulnerability data to create the risk model. The model’s hazard component incorporates both fault and area sources, while the risk component provides estimates of risk to residential, commercial and industrial buildings using GEM’s vulnerability models appropriate to Chinese construction practice. The model also includes exposure data that can be used to estimate total losses to the building stock in addition to portfolio losses. “GEM's China Earthquake Loss Model has met the highest insurance industry standards required for all catastrophe risk management processes. The model validation process involving GEM partners and catastrophe modelling experts from Hannover Re, Swiss Re, Guy Carpenter, Partner Re and the Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management - NTU Singapore is a testament to GEM’s open, transparent and collaborative approach to earthquake risk modelling.” - Jörg Steffensen , Hannover Re and GEM Governing Board Chair. “This has been a unique and productive experience for GEM. The fusion of public and private sectors’ interests reinforced GEM’s commitment to provide an alternative view of risk to the world. Informed by industry expertise and data, a diverse team worked together to fully assess risk and incorporate innovative model development processes which can serve as a blueprint for GEM’s future models.” - John Schneider , GEM Secretary General. Over the last centuries, China has been affected by several seismic events of high magnitude. The combination of high seismicity, exposure and population density led to costly events with a high number of fatalities. Between 1500 and 2004, China was the country that registered the largest number of earthquake fatalities. This new model will provide physical damage and financial loss metrics due to earthquake ground shaking hazard for scenario events and probabilistic risk assessment, both vital in addressing the insurance protection gap and disaster risk reduction management in China. Open and collaborative model testing and validation process - a trailblazing approach GEM sponsor representatives from Hannover Re (Jörg Steffensen), Swiss Re (Michael Ewald, Beat Aeberhardt), Guy Carpenter (Matthew Eagle), Partner Re (Paul Della Marta), and the Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management - NTU Singapore (Tso-Chien Pan), helped GEM in establishing a model testing and validation process using industry loss and exposure data where relevant, and evaluated the model against their own portfolios in order to better understand the model and provide advice to the GEM Foundation technical and scientific teams. Matthew Eagle , Head of Model Solutions & Advisory, Guy Carpenter said: “The new China Earthquake Loss Model represents an independent view of risk developed by the GEM Secretariat technical team, combined with broad industry review and validation through a panel of industry risk modelling experts from a number of leading insurance sector companies. Guy Carpenter was delighted to be involved in this initiative to support bringing additional views of risk to the market with added flexibility on the modelling platform deployment.” Beat Aeberhardt , Head Cat Perils Research and Development, Swiss Re Institute said: “GEM's China Earthquake Loss Model sets a new standard by combining GEM's subject matter expertise and innovative modelling approach with the open-source loss modelling framework OASIS. This joint development has facilitated rigorous co-validation by a panel of risk modelling experts from various insurance industry segments. We have been delighted to be part of this journey along with natural catastrophe experts from Hannover Re, Partner Re, Guy Carpenter and the Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management - NTU Singapore. Now we are excited about the model's commercial launch via Nasdaq Risk Modelling in the Oasis modelling framework and the VERISK Touchstone platform. It is amazing to see how GEM's cutting-edge subject matter expertise finds a way to risk model practitioners via an open-source channel. This model offers a novel level of transparency, commercial independence, and true choice for the re/insurance industry. We are looking forward to the next steps into a new area of insurance natural catastrophe risk assessment, with an ever-stronger community joining forces to master hard-to-model earthquake risk in this open book spirit enabled by GEM and Oasis LMF.” ----- About GEM’s Products and Services As part of GEM’s products and services strategy, GEM is offering value-added products for a fee such as the new China Model. These value-added products will also be available for free for public-good, non-commercial applications. In turn, the revenue generated from product or services fees will be reinvested to maintain GEM’s core capabilities, with an emphasis on providing support to developing countries. —-- END —-- Contacts: Nasdaq Risk Modelling for Catastrophes Platform https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/global-earthquake-model-gem Verisk Touchstone Platform https://www.air-worldwide.com/contact/purchasing-and-licensing/ GEM Foundation product@globalquakemodel.org No images found. GALLERY 1/4 Gallery VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

GEM Online news GEM Online News Coverage Search Reset Resilience Performance Scorecard Workshop in Yangon Dr. Carlos Villacis and Dr. Christopher Burton of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation introduced the Resilience Performance Scorecard, a self-evaluation tool for cities based on the “Ten Essentials for Making Cities Resilient”... https://ggsurbanresilience.org/ GEM featured on OASIS website Oasis Loss Modelling Framework and GEM have been working closely for many years. OASIS and GEM approaches and offerings are complementary, which opens interesting possibilities... https://oasislmf.org Application of Statistical Learning Models for Efficient Seismic Risk Assessment of Large Property... In this paper, AIG researchers introdcue surrogate models to significantly reduce the computational requirements in exchange for manageable errors in predicting the portfolio losses using OQ… https://ascelibrary.org 1 2 3 4 5 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ... 12

Country model to assess potential financial losses to commercial, industrial and residential buildings due to earthquakes Project Name Products China Financial Loss Model Country model to assess potential financial losses to commercial, industrial and residential buildings due to earthquakes Share Facebook LinkedIn Description The China financial loss model has been developed by GEM using public sources of information, such as past seismicity, and geodetic and geologic data for the hazard component, combined with exposure and vulnerability data. The hazard component incorporates both faults and area sources. Earthquake occurrence rates on active faults are based on a new tectonic block model derived from the joint inversion of geodetic and geologic data. The model provides estimates of financial risk to residential, commercial and industrial buildings using GEM’s vulnerability models appropriate to Chinese construction practice. GEM has also developed an exposure model that can be used to estimate total losses to the building stock in addition to portfolio losses. Further technical information can be found in the documentation. GEM extensively collaborated with its private and public partners to test and validate the model against industry standards in order to produce a new model that represents GEM’s view of risk. The model is available in Oasis and Touchstone formats, as well as through the NASDAQ platform. How to cite this work N.A. Available Versions The latest version (v2022) created by GEM can be requested by clicking on the "License Request", where a specific license will be provided, depending on the use case. The model is also available through NASDAQ and Verisk by clicking on the links in the right panel. License information Currently, the model is only available under a restricted license that has to be tailored for each specific use case. Share License Custom license Available resources NASDAQ Access Verisk Access Documentation License Request Facebook LinkedIn text Map View Search Popup title Close Country/Region Available Resources Country/Region Available Resources Country/Region Resource Url Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Preview Preview is not available. Related products Related publications For downloading or accessing detailed product information like PNG/PDF maps, datasets, license request, shapefiles and more, please switch to a desktop or laptop computer. Thank you for your understanding.