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  • ‘Rock recorders’ reveal drastic drop in earthquake hazard forecasts for Los Angeles - GEM Foundation

    News ‘Rock recorders’ reveal drastic drop in earthquake hazard forecasts for Los Angeles By: ​ ​ Jan 18, 2024 Jan 18, 2024 Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Photo of one of the precariously balanced rocks studied as part of the project at Lovejoy Buttes. Blue and white tape on the PBR, and red and orange tape on the outcrop below. Yellow tape is used to accurately map the geometry of the base of the PBR. The pattern of joints(fractures) in the granite rock mean that this landscape has an abundance of fragile features. Imperial College London press release ----- Imperial College London scientists have challenged existing earthquake hazard estimates for the San Andreas fault near Los Angeles. The fault marks where two tectonic plates meet, and is responsible for some of California's largest earthquakes. The latest seismic hazard assessment, led by researchers at Imperial, suggests that the hazard of a giant earthquake on the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault area – the closest section to greater Los Angeles – is much lower. The team found that in the unlikely event that a once-in-10,000-years earthquake erupted on the San Andreas fault, the ground would shake 65 per cent less violently than previously thought. The ground shaking uncertainty range was 72 per cent lower than previous estimates – meaning that researchers are much more certain about the new estimate compared to previous estimates. To reach this conclusion, researchers investigated a group of precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) at Lovejoy Buttes, an area found 15 kilometres away from the San Andreas fault. PBRs are naturally balanced rock formations which are found worldwide and provide ancient geological data. Despite their delicate balance, PBRs have survived thousands of years of earthquakes without toppling, revealing insights into prehistorical seismic activity. In this way, they act as ‘inverse seismometers’ or earthquake ‘rock recorders’, as described by the researchers – since the PBRs have not toppled, they record ground shaking of large earthquakes that have not happened. Photo of a precariously balanced rock from elsewhere in southern California, same PBR as in DSCN2456. Senior author Dr Dylan Rood, from the Department of Earth Science and Engineering (ESE) at Imperial, said: “Earthquake hazard scientists are usually limited in their estimation of future earthquake hazard by the fact that modern seismometers have only been recording earthquake shaking for approximately the past hundred years. Therefore, when it comes to less frequent earthquakes happening over tens of thousands to millions of years, estimates become highly uncertain as more assumptions need to be made. “Our groundbreaking ‘inverse seismometers’ technique allows us to forecast large, infrequent earthquake ground shaking more precisely. These precariously balanced rocks overturn the hazard model for the San Andreas fault nearest to Los Angeles.” By precisely dating the age of the PBRs at Lovejoy Buttes and examining their structural fragility (and therefore the likelihood of toppling due to ground tremors), the team at Imperial obtained key information about what intensity of ground shaking can be expected during these rare, powerful San Andreas fault earthquakes. Photo of one of the precariously balanced rocks studied as part of the project at Lovejoy Buttes. The San Andreas fault runs along the base of the San Gabriel Mountains in the background of the photo, ~15 km away. This PBR has been fragile for ~28,500 years, so has survived the ground shaking from all those years of San Andreas fault earthquakes. The findings were presented at the AGU Annual Meeting last month and are published today in Seismological Research Letters . First author Dr Anna Rood, seismic hazard scientist at the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and ESE and Civil and Environmental Engineering alumna, said: “We have innovated and implemented the most rigorous PBR validation methods to date. This is an important advance in earthquake hazard analysis, and practitioners should incorporate these methods. Our improved estimates have implications for the seismic hazard assessment of greater Los Angeles, which guide plans for disaster preparation, emergency responses and building codes. While a reduction in hazard may comfort residents of this earthquake-prone region, the magnitude of the inconsistency between our previous hazard estimates and the PBR survival raises important questions about our understanding of earthquake processes.” Researchers emphasised the need for independent data to validate seismic hazard estimates going forward. To improve the accuracy of estimates, they stress the importance of utilising the unique data over the timescales of rare, large earthquakes provided by fragile geologic features such as PBRs. Next, the team will use their inverse seismometer technique to validate seismic hazard estimates for other areas, including the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Subduction zones generate the largest earthquakes on Earth, yet important questions remain about past and future shaking during magnitude nine megathrust earthquakes. The study was funded by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the US National Science Foundation and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) in the UK, part of UKRI. ‘San Andreas fault earthquake hazard model validation using probabilistic analysis of precariously balanced rocks and Bayesian updating’ by Anna H. Rood, Peter J. Stafford, Dylan H. Rood published 17 January 2024 in Seismological Research Letters. All photo credits: Dylan and Anna Rood ---------- For more information contact: Caroline Brogan, Media Manager (Engineering) Imperial College London caroline.brogan@imperial.ac.uk +44(0)20 7594 3415 +44(0)7745 650 147 Out of hours press officer mobile: +44 (0)7803 886248 About Imperial College London Imperial College London is a global top ten university with a world-class reputation. Imperial’s 22,000 students and 8,000 staff are working to solve the biggest challenges in science, medicine, engineering and business. Imperial ranks sixth in the 2024 QS World University Rankings and eighth in the 2024 Times Higher Education World University Rankings. The 2021 Research Excellence Framework (REF) found that it has a greater proportion of world-leading research than any other UK university. It also received a Gold Award in the 2023 Teaching Excellence Framework (TEF). Imperial was named University of the Year in the Daily Mail University Guide 2024, University of the Year for Graduate Employment in The Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2024, and awarded a Queen’s Anniversary Prize for its COVID-19 response. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/ No images found. GALLERY IMG_2362.JPG Photo of a precariously balanced rock from elsewhere in southern California, same PBR as in DSCN2456. DSCN1662.JPG Photo of one of the precariously balanced rocks studied as part of the project at Lovejoy Buttes. Blue and white tape on the PBR, and red and orange tape on the outcrop below. Yellow tape is used to accurately map the geometry of the base of the PBR. Close up of photo DSCN1575. This is oldest rock we studied at Lovejoy Buttes and is ~50,000 years old. This age is shown by the dark rock varnish that has developed on its surface over time. DSCN1575.JPG Photo of one of the precariously balanced rocks studied as part of the project at Lovejoy Buttes. Blue and white tape on the PBR, and red and orange tape on the outcrop below. Yellow tape is used to accurately map the geometry of the base of the PBR. The pattern of joints(fractures) in the granite rock mean that this landscape has an abundance of fragile features. IMG_2362.JPG Photo of a precariously balanced rock from elsewhere in southern California, same PBR as in DSCN2456. 1/8 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

  • North Asia Exposure | Global EarthQuake Model Foundation

    Project Name Products North Asia Exposure Repository with the inventory of residential, commercial and industrial buildings in North Asia Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Description The Global Exposure Model is a mosaic of local and regional models with information regarding the residential, commercial, and industrial building stock at the smallest available administrative division of each country and includes details about the number of buildings, number of occupants, vulnerability characteristics, average built-up area, and average replacement cost. The dataset is developed and maintained by the GEM Foundation, using a bottom-up approach at the global scale, using national statistics, socio-economic data, and local datasets. This model allows the identification of the most common types of construction worldwide, regions with large fractions of informal construction, and areas prone to natural disasters with a high concentration of population and building stock. The North Asia region of the model includes information pertaining to Russia and Mongolia. How to cite this work Yepes-Estrada, C., Calderon, A., Costa, C., Crowley, H., Dabbeek, J., Hoyos, M., Martins, L., Paul, N., Rao, A., Silva, V. (2023). Global Building Exposure Model for Earthquake Risk Assessment. Earthquake Spectra. doi:10.1177/87552930231194048 Available Versions An open version (v2023.1) of the model, aggregated at Administrative Level 1, is available for direct download under a CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license. Users interested in this version can click the "Open Repository" button in the right panel to access the information. The full version for any country/territory, at the highest resolution available, can be requested by clicking on the "License Request", where a specific license will be provided, depending on the use case. License information The open version is available under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license, which requires: *Attribution (you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made) *Non-commercial (you may not use the material for commercial purposes) *ShareAlike (derivatives created must be made available under the same license as the original) Any deviation from these terms incur in license infringement. For commercial use of the model, a specific license agreement must be made tailored to your use case, in such instance please click on "License Request". Share License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 Available resources Documentation License Request Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn text Map View Search Popup title Close Country/Region Available Resources Country/Region Available Resources Country/Region Resource Url Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Preview Preview is not available. Related products Global Exposure Model Global Vulnerability Model Global Seismic Risk Map Country-Territory Seismic Risk Profiles Global Seismic Hazard Map Related publications For downloading or accessing detailed product information like PNG/PDF maps, datasets, license request, shapefiles and more, please switch to a desktop or laptop computer. Thank you for your understanding.

  • SERA Project workshop - GEM Foundation

    News SERA Project workshop By: ​ ​ Jul 2, 2018 ​ Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn ​ On September 18th and 19th, the EUCENTRE, a GEM sponsor and host institution to the GEM Foundation, hosted a meeting focused on the SERA Project, acronym for ‘Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research Infrastructure Alliance for Europe’. The EUCENTRE is leading a work package within SERA on the development of a risk framework for Europe, and is collaborating with GEM to develop exposure and vulnerability models, and to run risk calculations at a European scale using the OpenQuake-engine. The overall objective of SERA is to improve access to data, services and research infrastructures, and deliver solutions based on innovative R&D (research and development) in seismology and earthquake engineering with the end goal of reducing the exposure of our society to the risk posed by natural and anthropogenic [j2] earthquakes. For more details, visit SERA's website at www.sera-eu.org. Vitor Silva and Venetia Despotaki, Risk Coordinator and Physical Risk Engineer respectively, attended the meeting on behalf of the GEM Foundation. GEM is working with the other partners in the project, which includes universities and research institutions from Italy, Portugal, Greece, Switzerland, France and Turkey, in the development of exposure and vulnerability models which will generate a number of risk metrics across Europe (average annualized losses, probable maximum losses, risk maps), critical for the development of seismic risk reduction strategies. To this aim, the collaboration between SERA and GEM has already led to the development of an exposure model for 12 countries in the Balkan region for the residential building stock (at the municipality level), i.e.: Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia. The datasets used are based on the latest national housing census of each country and will be constantly improved. Similarly, the work will be extended to the rest of the European countries. In addition to the residential building stock, databases regarding the industry for each country, and socio-economic indicators (e.g., labour force, population per economic sector) will be further utilized to facilitate the development of exposure models for industrial and commercial buildings. Vitor and Venetia also presented a building taxonomy based on an international standard (the GEM Building Taxonomy https://www.globalquakemodel.org/single-post/2017/05/17/GEM-Building-Taxonomy-Version-20) that will be used in both the development of building exposure models and the fragility and vulnerability models. No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

  • GEM Foundation Chosen Among Ten Innovators for Hunger-Free and Resilient World - GEM Foundation

    News GEM Foundation Chosen Among Ten Innovators for Hunger-Free and Resilient World By: ​ ​ Dec 14, 2023 Nov 20, 2023 Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn ​ November 20, 2023. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation has been selected among 10 pioneering teams recognised by the World Food Programme Innovation Accelerator for their focus on crisis relief and resilience, contributing to a hunger-free world. This initiative aims to enhance global efforts toward a safer and stronger world by addressing acute food insecurity while promoting community resilience. With an astounding 1400+ applications from 122 countries, the selection process identified GEM Foundation's commitment to seismic safety and community resilience among the groundbreaking innovations. GEM's efforts align with this critical initiative, amplifying seismic safety measures and strengthening community resilience in earthquake-prone areas. Vitor Silva, Head of Risk Engineering expressed gratitude for the recognition, stating, “Being selected among numerous applicants reflects the value of GEM products to identify vulnerable communities, and act rapidly when destructive events occur. Our focus with the World Food Programme will be in aligning GEM models and tools with their existing framework.” GEM looks forward to participating in the WFP Innovation Pitch Event on February 16, 2024. This recognition not only acknowledges GEM's dedication to seismic safety but also affirms its role in contributing to a world where no one suffers from hunger. To learn more about the initiative and the selected teams, visit: https://wfpinnovation.medium.com/from-relief-to-resilience-ten-groundbreaking-innovations-for-a-hunger-free-and-sustainable-world-f014a4217b2e . No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

  • COP27: Launch of GRII Demonstrator - GEM Foundation

    News COP27: Launch of GRII Demonstrator By: ​ ​ Dec 6, 2022 ​ Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn ​ The Global Resilience Index Initiative (GRII) launched a Demonstrator at COP27. The launch of the Demonstrator aimed to provide the initial set of people, planet, and prosperity indices to guide financial decisions to scale up adaptation. At COP27, the GRII also called on innovators and data providers worldwide to support the scaling and improvement of this initiative, as well as engagement from more pathfinder institutions and governments. The Initiative noted that the availability of scientific and reliable data is the foundation of building resilience and that climate risk indices must not only be made available but accessible as well to financial systems and economies. Launched in COP26, GRII is a global public-private partnership to address the climate data emergency with consistent, accessible, and reliable risk information for use by governments, the financial sector, and wider communities. It draws upon significant cross-sector risk modelling experience, including public-private partnerships between governments, academia, insurance, and engineering. The GRII founding partners include: Centre for Greening Finance and Investment (CGFI) Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) Coalition for Climate Resilient Investment (CCRI) Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation Insurance Development Forum (IDF) United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) For more information please visit: www.globalresilienceindex.org . No images found. GALLERY 1/0 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

  • GeoPython Conference 2019: GEM’s innovations in QGIS - GEM Foundation

    News GeoPython Conference 2019: GEM’s innovations in QGIS By: ​ ​ Jul 31, 2019 ​ Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Paolo Tormene, Senior Developer, presents enhancements to the IRMT QGIS plugin at GeoPython Conference 2019. GEM Senior Software Developers Matteo Nastasi and Paolo Tormene presented their respective innovations at GeoPythonConf 2019 in Basel, Switzerland on June 25. Matteo presented HyBridge, a smart web app solution for OpenQuake engine, Input Preparation Toolkit and QGIS users. It automates sending input files directly to the OQ engine rather than having to save the file and upload it manually. Check details at: https://submit.geopython.net/geopython2019/talk/W3K8TQ Paolo presented IRMT or Integrated Risk Modelling Toolkit: a QGIS plugin that allows users to drive the OpenQuake engine calculations of physical hazard and risk, and to load the corresponding outputs as QGIS layers. Check details at: https://submit.geopython.net/geopython2019/talk/8ZJWPS To watch the full presentations, visit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67C5jsmfE2s starting from 7:14:47 No images found. GALLERY 1/5 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

  • Enhancing the Accuracy of Climate Risk Assessment: GEM Secretary General John Schneider Shares Insights at Webinar - GEM Foundation

    News Enhancing the Accuracy of Climate Risk Assessment: GEM Secretary General John Schneider Shares Insights at Webinar By: ​ ​ Jun 28, 2023 ​ Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn ​ Climate-related risks have become increasingly prominent in recent years, highlighting the urgent need to improve the accuracy of climate risk assessment. Recognizing this imperative, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) organized a thought-provoking webinar, "Opening the World of Catastrophe Models," on May 17th. The event aimed to promote open-source models and facilitate climate change risk modeling and management. The webinar, held from 13:00 to 17:00 CET, provided an opportunity for attendees to delve into the future of climate risk assessment. One of the key highlights of the event was the unveiling of the CLIMADA-app, an innovative tool developed to support climate risk analysis. Additionally, several other initiatives promoting open-source approaches were presented, reinforcing the importance of collaboration and knowledge sharing in addressing climate-related challenges. Among the speakers at the webinar was GEM Secretary General John Schneider. John shared GEM's pioneering efforts in the field of open-source models. He discussed GEM as a public-private partnership working collaboratively and globally to develop and apply earthquake hazard and risk models and as a developer of the OpenQuake tools and datasets that are made openly available to the research and risk management communities. He highlighted how GEM's OpenQuake Engine software has been a major enabler of ‘open data, and open access’ in the field of earthquake hazard and risk modeling. Similarly, by developing a collaboration network and providing open-source tools and models, it is possible to enhance the accuracy of climate risk assessment and to benefit various stakeholders, including policyholders, the insurance industry, supervisory bodies, and the public sector. The event was a call to action, inviting participants to join the collective efforts in building a more resilient future. By leveraging open-source tools and models and embracing collaboration, it becomes possible to tackle climate risks more effectively. The importance of open data and open access cannot be overstated, as they allow for transparency, inclusivity, and the availability of critical information to stakeholders at all levels. The Opening the World of Catastrophe Models webinar provided a platform for dialogue, knowledge exchange, and the exploration of innovative solutions. EIOPA's commitment to promoting open-source models and fostering a collaborative environment was apparent throughout the webinar. By bringing together experts, policymakers, and industry professionals, the webinar laid the foundation for a comprehensive and forward-thinking approach to climate risk assessment. As climate change continues to pose significant challenges, it is essential to stay informed, adaptable, and proactive. The insights shared by GEM Secretary General John Schneider and other esteemed speakers at the webinar serve as a catalyst for change. By embracing open-source models and harnessing the power of collaboration, we can pave the way for a more resilient future, better equipped to address the complex and evolving nature of climate-related risks. No images found. GALLERY 1.png 2.png 5.png 1.png 1/5 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

  • Global Seismic Hazard Map | Global EarthQuake Model Foundation

    Project Name Products Global Seismic Hazard Map Openly accessible global datasets and plots for peak ground acceleration with a return period of 475 years on rock Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn Description The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Global Seismic Hazard Map (version 2023.1) depicts the geographic distribution of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years, computed for reference rock conditions (shear wave velocity, Vs30, of 760-800 m/s). The map was created by collating maps computed using national and regional probabilistic seismic hazard models developed by various institutions and projects, in collaboration with GEM Foundation scientists. This version represents an update from the previous release from 2018 and features improvements in most regions of the world, as well as a higher spatial definition (approx. 2.5X) compared to the previous version. For the first time, it is now openly available in raster format as a direct download under a CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license. An interactive online viewer (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) is available, as well as a PDF poster and a high-resolution PNG (CC BY-SA 4.0) through the links on this page. A set of comprehensive maps is also available that features up to 20 layers with global coverage, considering PGA and spectral acceleration (SA) for four periods of vibration (0.2s, 0.3s, 0.6s and 1.0s), calculated for reference rock and spatially variable soil conditions, for 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. By clicking the "License Request" button, the full set or individual layers can be requested freely for research and public-good applications, or for a licensing fee in the case of commercial applications. How to cite this work K. Johnson, M. Villani, K. Bayliss, C. Brooks, S. Chandrasekhar, T. Chartier, Y. Chen, J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Gee, R. Styron, A. Rood, M. Simionato, M. Pagani (2023). Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Hazard Map (version 2023.1 - June 2023), DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8409647 Available Versions The base layer of PGA on rock for 10% exceedance in 50 years is available for direct download as a raster file, under a CC BY-SA-NC 4.0 license. Users interested in this version can click the "Open Version Download" button in the right panel to access the information. A PDF poster, as well as a high-resolution PNG, is available for direct download under a CC BY-SA 4.0 license. If your use case does not meet the open license requirement, or if you are interested in obtaining the full set of layers, please submit a request in our system by clicking on the "License Request", where a specific license will be provided, depending on the use case. Additionally, users interested in the previous version of the Global Map (v2018) can access the previous poster on this link . License information This product is available under multiple Creative Commons licenses (depending on the format), which may require some of the following: *Attribution (you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made) *Non-commercial (you may not use the material for commercial purposes) *ShareAlike (derivatives created must be made available under the same license as the original) Any deviation from these terms incur in license infringement. For commercial use of the dataset, a specific license agreement must be made tailored to your use case, in such instance please click on "License Request". Share License CC BY-SA 4.0/CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 Available resources Open Version Download Geoviewer PNG Poster Download Documentation License Request Acknowledgements Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn ​ Map View Search Popup title Close Country/Region Available Resources Country/Region Available Resources Country/Region Resource Url Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Preview Preview is not available. Search Found Country/Region Resource Url Preview Preview is not available. Related products OpenQuake Engine Global Vulnerability Model Global Exposure Model Country-Territory Seismic Risk Profiles Global Seismic Risk Map Related publications GEM's 2018 global hazard and risk models Read More The 2018 version of the Global Earthquake Model: Hazard component Read More Resilience Performance Scorecard - (RPS) Methodology Read More For downloading or accessing detailed product information like PNG/PDF maps, datasets, license request, shapefiles and more, please switch to a desktop or laptop computer. Thank you for your understanding.

  • Launch of new researcher-run journal SEISMICA aims to release earthquake science and seismology research from behind publisher paywalls - GEM Foundation

    News Launch of new researcher-run journal SEISMICA aims to release earthquake science and seismology research from behind publisher paywalls By: ​ ​ Jul 6, 2022 ​ Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn ​ On July 1, 2022, an international team of researchers launched a new journal, Seismica, supporting free global access to cutting-edge seismological research. Vitor Silva from the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation is a member of the core editorial team. Seismica will publish original, novel peer-reviewed research in seismology, earthquake science, and related disciplines. The new journal initiative began nearly two years ago when a group of seismologists were motivated to address the restrictive and expensive barriers to public and global access to research. More than 250 researchers from around the world, led by a core group of 44 editors, have designed and launched a community-centered journal. Editorial policies, platform, journal branding, publishing template, reviewer database and marketing. This initiative follows on from a movement of other journals that specialise in volcanoes, tectonics and sediments. Seismica’s mission is to publish rigorous peer-reviewed research which impacts the global community through policies which are accessible, transparent, respectful, credible, and progressive. Professor Christie Rowe, Canada Research Chair in Earthquake Geology and Associate Professor at McGill University, and Executive Editor for Community of Seismica said “Seismica is a community-driven journal dedicated to seismology, fully volunteer-run, diamond open-access journal. Articles are free to publish and free to read, without a subscription, and authors retain full copyright“. Seismica aims to appeal not only to academics and researchers alike but also to the industry, which plays a crucial role in this field of study. Seismica has an ongoing call for reviewers to subscribe to the journal database, for volunteers to help run the journal, and for scientists to submit their research. Interested people are asked to register at http://seismica.org . Seismica's various social media pages: ● https://twitter.com/WeAreSeismica ● https://www.facebook.com/WeAreSeismica ● https://www.instagram.com/weareseismica ● https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuXzivYc6eqiGikSj82dYGg No images found. GALLERY 1/5 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

  • Urban hazard assessment of selected cities in Latin America - GEM Foundation

    News Urban hazard assessment of selected cities in Latin America By: ​ ​ Jun 6, 2022 ​ Share Facebook X (Twitter) LinkedIn ​ Latin America is no stranger to earthquakes and records reveal seismic activity in Quito (Ecuador) dating back to the 1587 Guayllabamba earthquake. The urban centres built on deep alluvial basins have the potential to amplify the seismic waves thereby increasing the intensity of ground shaking. The rapid urbanisation in these cities only adds to the seismic risk of the built environment and human casualties. One of the objectives of this project was to build seismic hazard and risk models incorporating the local site effects that can be useful for engineers and policymakers in making an informed decision. GEM scientists developed site response models for three urban centres, namely, Cali, Colombia; Quito, Ecuador; and Santiago, Dominican Republic, based on geotechnical data provided by local experts. GEM used the available methods to combine in a probabilistic framework, the seismic sources (such as faults), ground motion models and the local site response models to compute the intensity of ground shaking at the surface. The end product includes 1) hazard maps - showing the level of ground motion at a certain probability of exceedance in the given time frame, 2) hazard curves and 3) uniform hazard spectra. The results of site response analyses show in some cases (e.g. in Cali) the de-amplification of motion, whereas in others - like in Quito and Santiago - increased levels of shaking. In some zones in each of these cities, soil softening and hardening, as well as resonance was captured in the site response models. At some locations, the use of site-specific information in hazard calculation produces estimates that are nearly twice that of ground motion values at bedrock. Further, the study highlights the prominent non-linear behaviour in soft soils at high levels of ground shaking which can be captured only through site specific amplification models and their impact on seismic hazard and risk. No images found. GALLERY Hazard map for the Hispaniola island considering local site effects. The map shows peak ground acceleration values corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. 1/2 VIDEO RELATED CONTENTS

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