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FORCE Project

Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE)

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This project aims to enhance earthquake hazard modeling capabilities in small communities, as well as to provide better risk models to account for changes in the number of occupants, structures and economic value exposed to earthquakes and the adverse effects of climate change. The project will evaluate future earthquake risk losses, thus supporting decision makers with risk metrics that account for the expected evolution of the built environment, which are fundamental for the design and implementation of long-term risk reduction measures.


The project aims to strengthen the capacities and understanding to manage and respond to future earthquake risk by:

  • introducing future growth or change into national and global exposure models to enable the quantification of future disaster losses, including those associated with climate change;

  • developing communication and dissemination tools to maximize the uptake of disaster risk information in policy making bodies; and

  • improving the reliability of earthquake hazard and risk assessment, in particular in regions that lack information.

To achieve the above, the project will implement five components below:

  • Predicting the evolution of the built environment and population

  • Forecasting future disaster risk due to earthquakes

  • Incorporating infrastructure in exposure modeling for risk assessment

  • Modeling earthquake hazard and risk for small communities

  • Advancing communication and dissemination of risk information



El Salvador:

  • Science partner: University of San Salvador (contact Manual Menjivar, associate Professor).

  • Government partner: Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, MARN (contacts Douglas Antonio Hernández, Geology Area Coordinator, and Luis Mixco, seismologist).


  • Science partner: National Society for Earthquake Technology, NSET (contact Surya Narayan Shrestha, Executive Director).

  • Government partner: National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).


  • Science partner: College of Science and Technology-Royal University of Bhutan (contact Chimi Wangmo, Head of Department, Civil Engineering DepartmentCheki Dorji).

Pacific partners:

  • Secretariat of Pacific Community (SPC), Geoscience, Energy and Maritime Division (contact Litea Biukoto, Geohazards Risk Management Leader)

Indian Ocean partner:

  • The Indian Ocean Commission IOC, (contact Gina BONNE, Director)

Government partners:

  • Member states and territories of the SPC and IOC through their representatives.

  • Additionally, collaboration is expected from GEM partners Geoscience Australia (GA) and Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS), New Zealand, considering their active role in the region.


This program aims to help nuclear operators in their periodic safety reviews and to respond to the high-level EU-wide safety objectives of the amended EURATOM nuclear safety directive (stress tests). The considered accident scenarios will provide input for updating severe accident management guidelines (SAMG).

Funding partner

The METIS project is funded by the European Commission (EC), under the Safety margins determination for design basis-exceeding external hazards program. 


2020- 2024

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