What Drives Seismic Risk in New Zealand? Insights from a next generation loss model
Authors
N.A. Horspool & A.B. King
Physical risk
Topic
Year
2015
New Zealand's exposure to seismic hazard has been highlighted dramatically in recent
years through the Canterbury Earthquake sequence (CES) from 2010 to present, and the near-misses
for Wellington during the Cook Strait earthquakes in 2013. These events have generated
unprecedented data and provided a number of lessons that have allowed modellers to develop nextgeneration loss models that are a step change on their predecessors. Improvements include developing
new vulnerability functions based on a wealth of recorded near-source ground motions and damage
and loss data on modern constructions, the ability to explicitly model secondary perils, such as
liquefaction, and utilising state-of-the-art modelling software such as OpenQuake that is being
developed by the Global Earthquake Model. This paper presents a next-generation loss model for New
Zealand and highlight the main drivers of seismic risk in New Zealand from an economic perspective.
