My Ocean Tree

Seismic fragility and vulnerability assessment using simplified methods for the Global Earthquake Model

Dimitrios Vamvatsikos, and Athanasia K. Kazantzi

Physical Risk



The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has commissioned the preparation of analytical vulnerability guidelines for general use. Within this framework, a distinct modeling and analysis method hierarchy has been proposed, whereby both detailed and reduced-order models can be analyzed using nonlinear static or dynamic methods. Each subsequent reduction in complexity increases the speed of application, yet generates additional error that needs to be considered in the form of epistemic uncertainty. The available choices represent different levels of compromise between the accuracy achieved and the associated effort needed, meant to suit users having different levels of expertise and resource availability. Our particular focus will be on the middle path that is expected to become the most popular choice, combining (a) a simplified stick model of the structure with (b) a static pushover analysis with accurate record-to-record dispersion information. The entire procedure is cast within an appropriate probabilistic framework that can effortlessly incorporate all the epistemic and aleatory uncertainty sources to become a viable path for evaluating structural fragility for a building class.

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