Seismic Risk in the Kyrgyz Republic, Central Asia
Matthew Free et al.
The Kyrgyz Republic is located in a highly seismic region subjected to devastating earthquakes that have caused loss of life, destroyed homes and ruined livelihoods in historical and recent times. In order to better understand the risk from earthquakes across the entire country, a nationwide seismic hazard and risk management study for buildings was undertaken. Across the Kyrgyz Republic, there are 150,000 residential buildings with an estimated portfolio value of 60 billion USD, 5,500 school buildings with an estimated value of 1.5 billion USD, 333 fire station buildings with a value of 500 million USD and 185 hospital buildings with a value of 9 billion USD. In this study, direct earthquake losses due to ground shaking have been quantified for each building asset portfolio using a probabilistic hazard and risk assessment for the entire country as well as twelve (12) selected credible scenario earthquake hazard and risk calculations. Risk assessments were performed independently for each building portfolio, using exposure and vulnerability models specifically tailored to the characteristics of each group of assets. The probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment confirmed that the country is subjected to moderate to high seismic hazard across most of the country and that significant average annual losses are expected (for example, up to 4% of GDP for the residential buildings portfolio). For the considered scenario events, the estimated monetary losses (mean) range from 138 million to 11 billion USD (i.e. up to 150% of GDP while fatalities range from 200 to 10,300 people. These findings will allow stakeholders to make informed decisions for upgrades and investment to reduce losses, better plan for emergency response and inform longer term recovery after earthquake disasters.