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GEM-PEER Task 3 Project: Selection of a Global Set of Ground Motion Prediction Equations

Stewart, Jonathan & Douglas, John & Javanbarg, Mohammad & Di Alessandro, Carola & Bozorgnia, Yousef & Abrahamson, N.A. & M. Boore, David & Campbell, Kenneth & Delavaud, Elise & Erdik, Mustafa & Stafford, Peter.




Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) relate ground motion intensitymeasures to variables describing earthquake source, path, and site effects. Frommany available GMPEs, we select those models recommended for use in seismichazard assessments in the Global Earthquake Model. We present a GMPE selec-tion procedure that evaluates multidimensional ground motion trends (e.g., withrespect to magnitude, distance, and structural period), examines functional forms,and evaluates published quantitative tests of GMPE performance against inde-pendent data. Our recommendations include: four models, based principallyon simulations, for stable continental regions; three empirical models for interfaceand in-slab subduction zone events; and three empirical models for active shallowcrustal regions. To approximately incorporate epistemic uncertainties, the selec-tion process accounts for alternate representations of key GMPE attributes, suchas the rate of distance attenuation, which are defensible from available data.Recommended models for each domain will change over time as additionalGMPEs are developed. [DOI: 10.1193/013013EQS017M]

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