Development of a pilot seismic risk assessment for British Columbia, Canada, through the application of Global Earthquake Model's OpenQuake
Alison L. Bird, Murray Journeay, Trevor I. Allen, John F. Cassidy, Nicky Hastings, Michelle M. Cote
The Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) has employed Global Earthquake Model's (GEM) OpenQuake as a potential tool for undertaking a national-scale earthquake risk assessment, beginning with a provincially-focussed assessment of British Columbia (BC), the most seismically hazardous region of the country. While the GSC has traditionally focused on probabilistic seismic hazard models, we endeavour to provide the engineering and emergency management communities with a suite of deterministic scenarios, evaluations of secondary hazards such as tsunami and liquefaction, and impact assessments. There are numerous feasible scenario earthquakes along British Columbia's tectonically active west coast with the potential to cause extensive damage. A small number of these will be presented, including an M~7.0 event along the recently profiled extension of the Devil's Mountain Fault just off the City of Victoria's waterfront, and a megathrust earthquake of M~9.0 with tsunami along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, off BC, Washington, Oregon and northern California. The resulting scenarios provide anticipated ground motions which are applied to vulnerability data (including site conditions, infrastructure and population exposure) to develop impact models. These outputs are crucial for effective emergency planning, risk mitigation measures and disaster management.