Global Earthquake Scenarios (GEeSe) Project
In the GEeSe project, a workflow has been developed for generating ground-motion fields for ISC-GEM catalogue events with Mw > 6.5. Models from the Global Hazard Mosaic are selected based on hypocenter proximity, then sources matching the events are filtered out. The rupture matching algorithm identifies the best-matched ruptures. These generate scenario hazard calculations, considering site conditions. The project aims to expand to consider regional conditioning of ground-motion fields and to provide an accessible dashboard output for users. Recent ad-hoc tests showed promising results, such as for the September 2023 Mw 6.8 Morocco event.
Retrace3D Project with Italian Civil Protection
Retrace3D, in partnership with the Italian Civil Protection, focuses on seismic hazard modelling in Central Italy, the site of the 2016–2017 earthquake sequence. Using RETRACE-3D's high-res fault model and ASPECT's geodynamics approach, the project characterises earthquake activity and computes seismic hazard using the OpenQuake Engine. The finite-element modelling of the fault system was recently completed. A workflow now calculates seismic moment rates and slip rates for each fault, forming source model files for OpenQuake Engine.
COMET/UK Project Update
The ongoing COMET collaboration has made significant progress. GEM's focus in this phase involves crafting a preliminary time-independent hazard model for Central Asia, leveraging a fault database from the previous collaboration phase. Progress depends on FERMI, GEM's new fault modelling tool. The next phase aims to develop a time-dependent model, a complex task in earthquake science. GEM is exploring innovative methods to modify earthquake timing within established fault slip rates and regional magnitude-frequency distributions. Initial experiments show promise, although scaling to larger fault networks presents challenges.
Business Interruption Project Update
Following a request for more work in this space from Guy Carpenter, this project led to the creation of new vulnerability functions for business disruption. These functions were based on results derived from simplified multi-degree-of-freedom systems and component-based models. This new modelling framework was developed to enhance the estimation of damage to nonstructural elements and contents. Real claim data from the 2017 Mexico earthquake was used to validate these models, leading to promising results.
Liquefaction Module Upgrades
Notable enhancements were made to the OpenQuake-engine's liquefaction module. Recent regional liquefaction occurrence models, like those utilised by the US Geological Survey's ground failure (GF) product and Todorovic and Silva's machine learning-based nonparametric model, were integrated. These models aim to predict ground failure using mapped information, offering improved national-scale liquefaction hazard and risk assessments. Additionally, the engine now supports machine learning-based models through the ONNX Runtime library integration.
Risk Assessment and Mitigation Study for Earthquakes in the Yilgarn: Infrastructure, Community, Interdependency (RAMSEY) Project
The RAMSEY project in Western Australia aims to understand infrastructure system risks in the Yilgarn region. Focusing on critical infrastructure networks, it assesses vulnerabilities, post-hazard dependencies, and recovery strategies. Despite challenges in formalising partnerships, progress continues. Assessments of community buildings' mitigation measures, impacts of scenario events, and substation vulnerabilities have been made. The next key step in the project is the formal request to Federal government by project partners to be able to share infrastructure information.
Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM)
In the latter half of 2023, efforts were dedicated to three primary areas. Firstly, the focus was on developing techniques to detect building footprints via satellite imagery, aimed at refining the mapping of exposure data. Secondly, emphasis was on enhancing the understanding of active faults in continental Southeast Asia, specifically addressing the suggested slip rate heterogeneity along the Red River Fault. Lastly, comprehensive seismic models were proposed for the Myanmar region, incorporating area source geometries and fault alignments for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). Furthermore, the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association gave the green light to the proposed Japan-Taiwan collaboration concerning Ryukyu PSHA during the Japan-Taiwan-New Zealand Seismic Hazard Assessment meeting held from November 29 to December 3 in Napier, Aotearoa, New Zealand.
Collaboration with the Swiss Seismological Service (ETH Zürich) on the EMME24 model
This ongoing work is a crucial part of the Middle East Earthquake Model (EMME24). Its objectives include implementing a probabilistic framework, with updated datasets, harmonised cross-border data, revised tectonics and seismogenic source models, as well as ground motion models. The latter involves using multiple GMPEs and backbone models within a logic tree, all implemented in the OpenQuake Engine. In this semester, progress focused mainly on advancing the EMME24 regional hazard model through ongoing efforts that involve 51 Experts from 12 countries. Weekly discussions have been conducted, addressing various components of the model, different toolkits, and advancements in OpenQuake Engine features.
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