Istanbul's readiness for future earthquake remains in question: experts

Source: Xinhua, August 16th

ISTANBUL, Aug. 16 (Xinhua) -- Istanbul's readiness for a future earthquake disaster remains in question though 10 years have passed since the last tragedy, killing nearly 20,000 people and destroying thousands of buildings to mere rubble.

This is the warning issued by geophysicists in Turkey's media as the country marks the 10th anniversary of the 1999 Marmara earthquake centered in Golcuk.

According to geophysicists, Turkey has learned many lessons from earthquakes, the 1999 earthquake in particular, but preparations for the next one are still not sufficient. A group of experts convened in May to discuss the readiness of Istanbul in the event of a major earthquake.

The daily Zaman reported on Sunday that their findings were not very heartwarming: An earthquake with a magnitude of 7 would kill thousands of people in the city. "Istanbul has so far experienced at least 50 strong quakes. Istanbul still not being ready for a major earthquake saddens us. Though 10 years have passed since the 1999 quake, only a small number of schools and hospitals in Istanbul have been reinforced," stated Cemal Gokce, head of the Istanbul Chamber of Civil Engineers.

According to Mustafa Erdik of Bogazici University's Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, the expected number of fatalities in the event of a major earthquake has significantly dropped since 2000, but preparations cannot be deemed satisfactory.

"Experts were expecting a death toll of around 40,000 for Istanbul before. Now the figure is around 22,000. This points to a decrease of around 50 percent. Despite the decrease, the feared number of fatalities is still too high," noted Erdik.

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