Scientific Framework

GEM will provide state-of-the-art open source software and databases as a necessary basis for reliably mapping, monitoring, and communicating earthquake risk.

Different types of software and tools will be available, adapted to the needs of various stakeholder groups. In order to achieve this, the model will be based on a combination of national, regional and global elements, and will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes as well as IT processes and infrastructure.

The GEM scientific framework serves as the underlying basis for constructing the model, and is organised in three principal integrated modules:

  • The hazard module calculates harmonised probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location.

  • The risk module calculates damage and direct losses resulting from this damage such as fatalities, injuries and cost of repair. Damage due to strong ground shaking is calculated by combining building vulnerability, population vulnerability and exposure. GEM will furthermore develop remote-sensing and crowd-data collection techniques to classify, monitor and regularly update building inventory and thus regional vulnerability.

  • The socio-economic impact module of GEM will provide tools and indices to both estimate and communicate the impact from earthquakes on the economy and society, concentrating in particular on indirect losses. For example the impact on a company's revenue, on budgets, on poverty. The module will allow for calculations of scenarios which enable cost/benefit analysis of mitigating actions, such as systematic building strengthening, and facilitate insurance and alternative risk transfer.

All of the three modules will be integrated in a common open IT infrastructure, using compatible, validated open-source software.