Risk Modelling

GEM models are being transparently assembled. This is the basis for obtaining independent risk estimates and outputs that help to define risk financing and transfer strategies more effectively and can directly feed policies and plans. With OpenQuake, users will be able to combine state-of-the-art models, datasets and methodologies with their own data and preferences, at every step of the risk modeling process.

State-of-the-art modeling driven by global collaboration

Probabilistic Modelling

A probabilistic approach to modeling seismic hazard lies at the core of loss estimation with OpenQuake. Nevertheless the platform and tools are capable of creating loss scenario’s based on ShakeMaps and ground-motion fields of past events.

Uncertainty Treatment

OpenQuake will allow for extensive treatment of uncertainties, which supports users to establish confidence in obtained results.

Transparency

Transparency is key to all modeling with OpenQuake. Models are result of global collaboration and continuous international debate. The OpenQuake engine and the majority of the platform’s software components are therefore accompanied by extensive documentation and wizards, but are above all open-source. The code is thus publicly accessible and can be re-used or extended by GEM stakeholders.

Integrated calibration and testing

Automatic testing and calibration is built into the platform and OpenQuake offline tools, at various stages of the modeling process. Users will furthermore be able to produce customized results that support testing their assumptions, after which they can redo part of the process and adjust parameters or rather look into the underlying event sets to understand what the results are depicting.

Cost-Benefit Analysis 

To facilitate decision-making related to risk management measures, OpenQuake will supports both insurance cost-benefit analysis as well as retrofit cost-benefit analysis. This allows users to understand what policies fit the needs of structure(s) best, given the expected projected loss, while at the same time obtaining insight in what the effect of possible retrofitting can be.

Holistic Risk Assessment

For the comparison of overall earthquake risk worldwide, users are able to explore risk holistically, hence to analyse and explore earthquake risk that accounts for the vulnerability and resilience of societies and economies. Composite indices of social vulnerability, resilience and indirect economic loss related to for example business interruption and value chain dependency, are coupled with estimates of physical risk.

Get Involved

If you would like to use GEM tools and resources, there are number of ways in which you can get involved in GEM before v1 of the OpenQuake platform is released (end 2014):

  • National agencies can become a public participant in the GEM Foundation and guide the GEM effort, bringing their needs and knowledge to the table. Private organisations ....
  • You can collaborate with GEM’s global projects on data collection, in particular on building stock and population for the global exposure database, following the guidelines they are producing.
  • Encourage the technical experts you work with to get familiar with GEM tools, such as the OpenQuake engine

Write us if you have other ideas of how you think you can collaborate with the GEM effort. And of course we invite you to follow us