FrameworkThe following framework guides development of the global earthquake risk model, and the OpenGEM platform that will allow access to the model, whereby enabling users to analyse seismic risk and impacts from earthquakes, and to support their decisions on earthquake risk:  The base of the framework consists of seismic hazard (the probability of levels of ground shaking resulting from earthquakes, within a given time span), vulnerability (defined as the probability of loss given a level of ground shaking for physical vulnerability, or through indicators that envelop the socio-economic factors known to be the driving forces of vulnerability), and exposure (the elements at risk). Combining these components within the risk module will allow for an estimation of direct damage and loss as well as risk indicators or indices. Indirect economic loss and the long-term impacts of earthquakes also fit within the risk and impact analysis module. Decision-making tools are built on top of the aforementioned output.
Up to 2011, activities have focused on development of the components of the framework that will allow for calculation of seismic hazard and physical seismic risk [components in black]. From the fall of 2011 activities will be undertaken to allow GEM to expand beyond physical risk [components in blue], by capitalizing on existing efforts and know-how. Such activities will also continue after the first version of OpenGEM is delivered. Hazard
Global Active Faults and Seismic Sources Database Global Geodetic Strain Model Global Ground Motion Prediction Equations Global Seismic Instrumental Catalogue Global Seismic History Exposure/Vulnerability Global Exposure Database Inventory Data Capture Tools Physical Vulnerability Estimation Methods Global Earthquake Consequences Database Social, Economic and Institutional Aspects of Vulnerability Capacity Measures Global Socio-Economic Datasets Risk and Impact Analysis GEM Ontology and Taxonomy Integrated Risk Modelling Other (e.g. macro-economic impacts, indirect economic impacts, etc.) Decision-Making Tools 10 components that form the core of GEM are hence currently being developed. International consortia will by the end of 2013 have developed uniform standards, homogenized global databases and tools necessary for hazard and physical risk estimation worldwide. The components aimed at expanding GEM beyond physical risk are envisaged to be developed in collaboration with partners and other organisations, such as those with expertise on social-economic elements that influence seismic risk, and/or on decision-making tools that can support short, medium and long-term decisions related to seismic risk.
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